I've just uploaded the first-draft version of Chapter 3 of the Humpty Dumpty Y2K book. It includes a revised list of topics for discussion in subsequent chapters, based on suggestions and contributions in the "What Have I Missed?" thread elsewhere on this forum.

I appreciate the feedback and suggestions on Chapters 1 and 2; haven't had a chance yet to incorporate them into a new revised draft.

Feedback and comments on Chapter 3 are welcome...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 09, 1999

Answers

Ed,

I liked Chapter 3 but I'm a bit confused. Will you be writing about 1. The wide variety of things that might happen within various sectors, 2. The things that you think are most likely to happen,or 3. The things that you (and others) would like to see happen?

Maybe you were clear about this in the introduction and I missed it but it seems pretty important. I'm not sure what the organizing principle is here so I'm finding it difficult to respond to the material. I find the project very intriguing and would love to make a contribution so I'm looking forward to your response.

dhg

P.S. I thought the world population was closer to 6 billion than 5 billion. Is that incorrect?

-- dhg (dhgold@pacbell.net), August 10, 1999.

According to the WHO (World Health Organization of the UN) the six-billionth person will join the family of man on October 12th of this year.

Of course, those of us who have been closely following this issue and have an eye for demographics know that we've been more 6 billion for over a year---typical census undercounts, and uncounted rurals.

Happy birthday, little H. Sap, Welcome to TWAWKI.

Hallyx

"As population increases, individual freedom decreases."---Boyle's Law

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), August 10, 1999.

Wishing I had read ch. 3 before posting above. Here's the latest from the Dept of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/

U.S. 273,212,380 World 6,004,727,898 08:34 EDT Aug 10, 1999

Hallyx

"If you don't learn anything from your mistakes, what's the sense in making them?"

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), August 10, 1999.

You reference the Amish living without technology. This is most people's misconception. While I am not Amish and do not want to become Amish, they have something to contribute to this. They evaluate the impact of technology on their families and communities. We do not attempt this. They accept technology in their time and on their terms, attempting to minimize disruptions and allow technology to be integrated more slowly into their lives.

The Amish, for instance use electricity, but refuse to be connected to the "grid" because it would make them dependent on the outside world. Telephones are kept outside the home. They can be used, but this way they cannot be used to invade the home--something we've all experienced many times. --Sounds good, doesn't it?

We need to come up with some good questions to evaluate technology as it impacts our families and communities. Asking the right question is more important than getting the right answer, and we don't even try to ask.

This has been a problem since the Industrial Revolution. We still do not know how to live with technology. It is more like a wild, than a domesticated creature--more like a wolf than a dog. We need to tame and train the wolves of technology.

-- David Webb (dwebb@frostburg.edu), August 10, 1999.

Ed;

I just got through reading 2&3. One thing struck me in your "Think Golbally, act Locally". The outcome of all major "wars" is that the Powerful (winners) get to dictate the terms of surrender to the weaker (losers). If Y2K is a mild bump in the road here in the US and is a Big Deal Globaly, are we in a position to negotiate the terms of rebuilding?

By this I mean, to we have the constuction, transportation, financial, etal to go and rebuild what is lost. Just as after the Gulf war we went back in and put out all of the oil well fires and rebuilt the oil wells, will this be an oprotunity for capitalism to spread?

The other option is that we will be come "Isolationists" as the 2nd& 3rd Worlds desolve into tribal regions of small bosses and warlords.

Arguably the US is the best prepaired for the upcoming storm Will we Win this War or will "Rome" be invaded by the barbarians?

Food for thought, thank you for letting us comment on this work in progress.

It will get worse before it gets better....

Helium

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 10, 1999.