Dear Mr. Yourdon: Thank you for the opportunity to be involved in your newest project. I believe that post Y2K, and assuming serious problems in the range of 5 to 9, that much time and energy will be spent on hand wringing, soul searching and finger pointing. "We" will want to know who to blame for the mess. Afterall we always want someone to be to blame don't we? And I'd be willing to bet that most of "us" will want to blame "them". Sure, programmers, business leaders and government officials may all make the list (and maybe they should) but I believe we'll need to look further. For instance, what kind of leadership should governments have shown? Wasn't it the right thing to do to try to save the banking system by preventing bank runs? While many of us may have strong reservations about the fractional reserve system, has Koskinen really had any other choice but to make his moderate statements in an effort to prevent panic? Do many of us really want the banks to collapse for any reason at all, let alone Y2K? How in the world would anyone benefit by such an event happening right now? Let's get the sytem changed but not as a direct result of the collapse of what we have now.

Most of us that have tried to educate ourselves to the possibilities have felt an awful lot of frustration at the apparent lack of serious concern by leaders and officials but think for a minute of their alternatives. If we (the North American or even the World population) had been told on January 1,1999 that we'd each better take whatever steps were necessary to provide for our own heat,light,food,water and other life-sustaining essential supplies for a minimum period of from 3 to 6 months long, what do you think would have been the result? We'd probably all have faced chaos. We all understand now that the supply lines could never have handled the kind of demand that would have been created. Would there have been panic? Possibly, maybe even probably, on a scale never seen before in the history of humankind. And what of the result? Probably many fewer systems would have been fixed because of the upheaval and perhaps the rollover would turn out to have been much,much worse than it will be...however serious. What of us,those of us who have prepared? Would we have been better off? I doubt it. With the consequences to worldwide supply and demand I doubt that I'd have had the luxury of time and common sense to prepare as well as I am now.

Another thought, many many people would still have ignored the advice of government and business leaders and would either have left preparations to the last minute or at least to a point that the supply lines would have been empty. Again, what would we have done for them at rollover...more chaos I think. The government probably wouldn't have been in a position to help much either since they'd have had to deal with the same artificial shortages.

Opinion: I believe some of our governments did an analysis of the possible scenarios and decided,rightly or wrongly,(and inevevitably we will know which it was) to suppress the truth. In the end,those of us who have prepared have had the opportunity to do so,not only because of the clarion calls of people like Ed Yourdon and Gary North and others (and we owe them all a debt of thanks that may never be repaid) but in a strange way we owe thanks to our leadership for the course they've taken. They decided, I believe, that the most likely way of the authorities being prepared was to repress the truth to the general North American population. I believe that a conscious choice was made to take the course they have because there is a possibility that we may face societal collapse. I don't think they've made the right choice but a legitimate choice it was and,afterall,we'll all know the results in the not tooo distant future. What will hindsight tell us? Were they right or were they wrong?

So,a personal thank you Ed, and how about a chapter or part of a chapter on hindsight. It might be interesting to "foresee the past".

Best regards from North of the 49th, Bob Greenhalgh

-- Bob Greenhalgh (bobgreen@sprint.ca), August 08, 1999

Answers

There is a big difference between the words 'preventing panic' and 'prolonging panic'. Do you really believe that the gov't has spent this time preparing in such a manner that all the unprepared will be taken care of??????????Yes, had the gov't told everyone the truth there might have been chaos. But various mnftrs and food processors would have had time to ramp up a bit to meet some of the demands. Now they will be doing good to stay in business after the roll over. Truth may be tough at times, but its still best.

Taz...shaking her head!

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 08, 1999.

Dear Taz: Please read my post again. I agree with you that truth is always better than lies. What I am saying is that in hindsight in February or March of 2000 I may (that's may not will) believe that I may personally have benefited from lies told to others by our governments. I'm not suggesting it's right but it may turn out to be a fact. I strive to tell the truth in my personal and working life regardless of consequences. I'm speculating that what I have written may turn out to have been true.

Regards, Bob

-- Bob Greenhalgh (bobgreen@sprint.ca), August 08, 1999.

Bob, that took guts to say, and so I'm going to speak truthfully, too, and say I could understand your point: that there may well be some irony in that the people we are yelling at for not giving people realistic warning, have mae it easier for those who GI to prepare. Maybe some of the frustration about not giving people early warning, comes from those of us with preps who are having a real difficult time imagining how to deal with desperate friends, relatives and neighbors who may appear at our oors, expecting us to take care of them. Will they ever forget we said NO? Will we end up in the same desperate boat pretty quickly if we say YES. In any case, I am not sure what I would have done about speaking out, if I knew 100 million people might act on my advice and cause the economic panics/crises that some describe ... especially if there were many "experts" telling me to wait, because "everyone" believes it can be remediated before 1/1/2000 arrives.

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), August 08, 1999.

So if a meteorite was headed to earth would you want to know or would you want the government to keep it a secret? What right does the government and the media have to not warn the public of a possible societal problem come the year 2000. I believe the MAJORITY of people wouldn't believe the government anyway! They may think that by telling the truth would create some panic. But that could very easily be resolved by giving out ration coupons like they did during WWII. Y2K is a global problem and perhaps the government does not know how devastating the effects will be. But I do believe the government knows enough to the extent that they are building a Y2K bunker, and preparing themselves for trouble. Frankly, I don't think any of us need to depend on the government whether it be at a local level or national level to prepare for Y2K. I live in earthquake country so preparation for me is not a problem, I only added several months to my stash. It will be every man for himself and I'm sorry if someone else did not heed the warning.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 08, 1999.

Dear Kristi and Bardou: Thank you for for your thoughts. I agree with much of what both of you have said. Truth always...absolutely! But like you said Kristi, there could be an interesting irony come to pass. I do not think the truth should be held from people but if it has been, I may in the end benefit.

As well, I think often of situations that may arise after the rollover (eg. whether or not to help my neighbour, or maybe just the neighbours I like best??) Gawd, I hope I don't have to make those decisions. The only worse thing would be to be the one having to ask for help. So maybe I'm lucky afterall.

Thanks again, both of you. I believe this stuff has to be discussed.

Regards from North of the 49th, Bob Greenhalgh

-- Bob Greenhalgh (bobgreen@sprint.ca), August 09, 1999.

Part of our Emergency Preparedness Group goal is to prepare 'enough' (according to our individual assessment and means - just like insurance) to be able to offer help, goods, assistance to others...AND to network 'prepared others,' who volunteer to do the same....we already know our village Public Works Director is grateful to have one of us as his 'stats' volunteer should the need arise...and the nursing home down the block is happy to hear there are people interested in helping. We believe that our own preparedness is enhanced by others' preparedness. We want to share as much as we are learning with as many as are interested. We can only guess about future interest...no clairvoyant messages in that realm either. So far, most of y2k has been one big opportunity to learn and share and connect...the hardest part is convincing my company to allow me to give preparedness workshops...but I may ask for forgiveness rather than continue to ask for permission....no idea where that saying came from, but it's been liberating...if I don't 'risk' now, I could risk more later....Am learning just enough about chaos theory to be dangerous...our tiny actions NOW CAN (and do) have larger consequences down the line - yes, I know...in the plus and in the minus direction....Lesleigh

-- Lesleigh Lippitt (llippitt@qgraph.com), August 09, 1999.