Anyone want to predict where the stock market will be end at tomorrow? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

After reading several threads and responses on stock market activity last week, what's your prediction for this coming week?

-- sitting on the fence (, August 08, 1999


I KNOW it will finish at least 200 points lower!

-- lenny (, August 08, 1999.

Down 130 points. December Dow Puts up 40 points. The polyannas will be crying soon!

-- Dow Crash (, August 08, 1999.

CONGRESSWOMAN CONSTANCE MORELLA, October 1998: "Our nation is in danger of being plunged into a catastrophic economic depression with severe business disruptions..."

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN, ALAN GREENSPAN -- weighs in as follows: "Inevitable difficulities are going to emerge," he said. "You could end up with...A very large problem." "Even if most firms fix the bug, it will only take a small number to trigger big problems."

SHERRY BURNS, Director of the CIA's office studying the Year 2000 problem, told Reuters: "There is very little realization that there will be a disruption, As you start getting out into the population, I think most people are again assuming that things are going to operate the way they always have. That is not going to be the case."

-- Y2K PRO (, August 08, 1999.

this can't be y2k Pro- the real y2k pro???? He's gone doomer on us! Norm and CPR can't be far along......

-- farmer (, August 08, 1999.

Obviously, you are not Y2K Pro. You might be right. I give you a 50:50 chance.

Best Wishes,


-- Z1X4Y7 (, August 08, 1999.

Will Continue

Sir are you reading the Pro's posts? LOL...Do you think it is the simular to the second coming? He has sure floored me with these three posts, they are objective in nature and even offer up the back ground material on the respective subject matter...This has got to be a first...I just hope that he keeps it up!!!


-- Shake (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), August 08, 1999.

There is always hope for our Pollys.....just little time.

-- Will continue (, August 08, 1999.

Guys, The real Y2KPro used a hotmail address and this one is AOL, so this imposter isn't even trying very hard to steal his handle. Maybe that was intentional.

In any case, the fact that most of you are so willing to believe that Y2KPro had a sudden change of heart will only end up being used as ammunition by the Pollys to point out how gullible we are. Don't help them.

And whoever is posting as Y2KPro should stop. How long before someone starts posting Polly drivel as a@a.a or Paul Milne or Will Continue???

-- (its@coming.soon), August 08, 1999.

Am I the only one who has noticed that this poster is "Y2K PRO", not "Y2k Pro"?????? I mean, capital letters do make a difference.

Now all we need is a dIEtEr-like variant -- y2KPrO to even things out. Since Y2k Pro is a polly, and Y2K PRO is a doomer, I guess y2KPrO will need to be "middle of the road".

-- King of Spain (, August 08, 1999.

Am I the only one who has noticed that this poster is "Y2K PRO", not "Y2k Pro"?????? I mean, capital letters do make a difference.

Yeah, I noticed it, but I still don't think it's necessary to use the handle at all if you're not Y2k Pro. I mean, would you want someone posting Polly crap and signing it KING OF SPAIN?

-- (its@coming.soon), August 08, 1999.

Lower. Hope I'm wrong.

I see a decline until the next interest rate change occurs.

Then the market might take one more long bull rise before the plunge.

-- Randolph (, August 08, 1999.

Ironicly and very absurdly 75-100 points *higher*. I think reality has basicly left the stockmarket and is waiting quietly in the wings. Daytrader fads rule and their last fad will be complete panic.

-- Typhonblue (, August 08, 1999.

Will the real Y2k Pro please step forward?

-- Linda A. (, August 08, 1999.

On a related note:

Subject:Re: Tiger Fund in deep trouble
Author:Paul Milne <>
  Posting History Post Reply

TheZenith wrote in message <7okilg$rn$>...
>In article <>, wrote:
>> Steve B. Hill wrote:
>> >
>> > In article <7ofmqi$r41$>, "merville"
>> > wrote:
>> >
>> > > This is bad news.  My financial contacts have always taken Y2K
>with a pinch
>> > > of salt, but when I have mentioned derivatives and funds like the
>Tiger fund
>> > > being vulnerable, they have always perked up.  This could be a
>> > > trigger point folks ....
>> >
>> > Hey-the street .com also did a piece on this today with commentary
>from the
>> > fund manager that these allegations are "obscene".
>> >
>> I'll tell that fucker what's obscene:  Major banks giving billions of
>> dollars to gamblers so that they can bet on currency fluctuations.
>> gives a shit whether the bell tolls today or tomorrow for Tiger or the
>> rest of those ass wads?  It has to happen.  Batten down the hatches
>> pray we have a few more days or weeks to get done what we need to get
>> done.  When the bell finally tolls, it's for all of us.  That is what
>> obscene.
>What is happening is the Tiger is investing in the fact that the
>dollar is growing stronger than the yen. When the process reverses,
>which it is,the Tiger fund will lose money on this "Yen carry trade".
>They must then sell stocks to cover the loses on the "Yen carry trade"
>and to pay back the loans they have taken.
>No big deal, unless it involves billions of dollars on our market.
>Which it does.
>It is said all of this will collapse of the Yen to $ value reaches
>111Y. It is now 114Y.
I already said this a couple of weeks ago. However,  I came in at 109 Yen to the dollar.
Paul Milne
>Zzzzzzzzzzzz...zzzzz..z.z....z....zzzzzz zzz....z.Z
>"Even if the date-sensitive equipment blows up
>due to a Y2K bug, there'll usually be a
>replacement ready to take over." -smpoole7
>Sent via
>Share what you know. Learn what you don't.

-- a (a@a.a), August 08, 1999.

The puppetteers are laughing their asses off at the pollyanna investors that are still in. They took the big money out and are currently manipulating the gold markets to buy up all the real money cheap. The game is almost over and they know it!! If your not intelligent enough to see through this market farce you deserve to lose everthing next year.

-- Y2K Pro (, August 08, 1999.

I'm with typhon, 150 points up...

I hope this happens as I need TIME to get some funds to a safer place ( a bear shorting fund)... fingers crossed...

-- Andy (, August 08, 1999.

Hong Kong is down 202 points at this time...10:49 P.M. eastern. My guess is 150 points down tomorrow on the dow. Buy gold and silver and Dow Puts NOW !!

-- flierdude (, August 08, 1999.

Gee thanks flierdude, just what I needed to know... let's see what the PPT come up with...

-- Andy (, August 08, 1999.

From goldeagle


INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE is the very best of the best advisory services and tracks over 140 non-brokerage newsletter writers. They compile weekly stats on who is bearish and bullish-currently 52% of the writers are bullish and this is very negative from a contrary standpoint. I have been closely following this service for the last ten years and can't remember when they have been more bearish. In their Aug. 6th letter they talk of key stocks exhibiting "the most dangerous formation (high pole tops) when indicators are bearish". "The percentage of bullish advisors has been over 50% for the last 37 out of 38 weeks.....with stretched valuations....a potential very bad mkt. lies ahead." DOW 1000---My good friend Robert Prechter once pointed out that in all manias the entire mania is retraced--as in 1929. Inconceivable isn't it? However, the historical record says it has happened often. I mention it because an old friend of mine who trades about $10mill. of his own money and has been in the mkt over 30 yrs. said that he could envision the DOW under a grand. It caught my attention because the remark was so out of character for him--gee, what a dream....the DOW at 850 and gold at $850, just like the good ole days. ' Yikes!

-- Andy (, August 08, 1999.

Malaysia down 4.81% presently @ 12:12 eastern.

-- flierdude (, August 09, 1999.

Andy - I love your one liners - please keep them coming. There's still a few of us left who remember when the Dow was 850 and gold was $850 US an ounce. I like to call it the olden days - the good old baby boomers olden days

Cheers Pam.

-- Pamela J Lawrence (, August 09, 1999.

Russia down 14.5% overnight !!


-- Ray (, August 09, 1999.

Russia smussia, come on you PPT's!!!

-- Andy (, August 09, 1999.

Andy, Robert Prechter wrote a book in 1995 entitled "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave". He predicted a massive deflationary periord and a Dow below 400.

This was before y2k was a blip on the radar screen. At that time he pointed out the EXTREMES the market was at in 1995 !! He still publishes a monthly newsletter and internet report.


-- Ray (, August 09, 1999.

No matter what...we are heading into a depression. God has a controversy with America. Fear God, not Y2K. Fear God, not man.

-- potent (, August 09, 1999.

typhon -

Day trading is getting a very bad name lately: Day Trading Problems Exposed. The bloom is off the Technology/Internet rose, which is killing the NASDAQ. Recent market psychology has been characterized as "very negative". The party has lost its punchbowl.

Markets are still absorbing the July jobs data and working at discounting another Fed rate hike. Light volumes and little breadth currently - declines exceeded advances by 2:1 nearly every day last week. Expect slow downward trend in stairstep fashion until Mr. Greenspan makes his move later this month, then we'll see.

"There is great disorder under heaven, and the situation is excellent!" --- Thoughts of Chairman Mao

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 09, 1999.


God is going to judge the United States very severely, and you know it!

-- Randolph (, August 09, 1999.

Well TyphonBlue gets the prize with moi as runner-up, yeah, way off the mark (less than 1% :) ), but ON the mark regarding the greeeeeeeeeeeed and dollar-donuts that are fuelling the compressor - pretty sad...

there are 40 million families depending on their 401k's in the USA, which are being systematically looted only to leave these folks with nada in the very near future - time will tell very soon...

the circus continues

-- Andy (, August 09, 1999.

Andy -

Ain't no one who can accurately predict the stock market short term, and certainly not for a day or even a week. That's why it's called "investing": the funds are supposed to go in and stay put for longer than, oh, 4 hours. That's also why I'm completely out of the equity market - way too much speculation instead of investing going on.

It seems to be far more a question of psychology than fundamentals nowadays. FWIW, here's some commentary about stock market index (specifically S&P 500) support levels from The

Look for Selling to Continue This Morning (Tuesday Wake-up Call)

By Justin Lahart, Senior Writer, The

8/10/99 9:17 AM ET It's going to be touch-and-go for the stock market this morning.

With yesterday's selling looking to extend into this morning, the market looks like it may again touch levels that technicians consider significant. At 9 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 futures were off 5.1, having closed yesterday near fair value. That puts them at 1297.9. Thursday's low of 1292 is thought to be key support. If the futures break through that level, things could get ugly.

Beyond that, the next major support is seen around 1275 on the S&P 500 cash index -- a level that is absolutely crucial, according to Charles Farra, president of Global Trading. "We've had a pretty decent correction in the last couple of weeks," he said. "For it to stay just a correction, the S&P needs to stay above the 1275 area. If it breaks below, you're going to see some pretty significant selling."

And then?

"I'm not going to say if we crack through or not," said Farra. "But if you see it cave through, it's going to be more than a correction. I think we'll go negative on the year..."

FYI, as of noon Eastern, the S&P 500 had fallen through that 1292 like it was tissue and was at 1281 and holding.

"Hold onto your butts!" -- Mr. Arnold (Samuel L. Jackson), Jurassic Park

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 10, 1999.

12:30...S&P at 1278.

Glad I'm out.


-- Roland (, August 10, 1999.

9:55 am pst S&P at 1272 Mike

-- Michael Taylor (, August 10, 1999.

anyone else notice that CNBC flat out stoped showing the S&P graphic at about 9:55 am pst?

prior to that time the graphic would change back and forth between the S&P reading and the 30 year bond...not it's just showing the bond.

just kinda curious.



-- Michael Taylor (, August 10, 1999.

The media equivalent of averting one's eyes. "No, no, don't look. It's too horrible. That used to be a support level..."

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 10, 1999.

lol Mac!

it's back now and it seems to have improved too, down 22.75 at 10:53 pst



-- Michael Taylor (, August 10, 1999.

From James J. Cramer, The Celebrity Stocks

[Regarding the current mania of seemingly everything under the sun floating a stock offering]

...Yeah, its totally out of control. We are in the no shame/Jerry Springer portion of the underwriting cycle. Our zeal to bring things public has simply ceased to have limits. The deal will get done, the stock placed  no matter what. Big fees, bigger than ever. Call me jaded. But I cant see how this is good for the market. There has to be a sense that, in the end, the companies coming public are indeed companies, not people or fads or ways of life or institutions. We arent voting and we arent shopping and we are not entertaining ourselves. We are supposed to be investing. Sometimes it pays not to forget why we buy shares of stock: to make, not lose, money. This isnt like going to the movies or the ponies or the game. The entity you invest in is supposed to give you a return, not a thrill or a brush with celebrity. Somehow that all seems very quaint now. Talk to me when its over.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 10, 1999.

Well. Coulda been lots worse. S&P climbed back up over the 1272 support: Go, PPT, Go!! Dow "only" down 52 (coulda been 100) and NASDAQ down about 29 (coulda been 60). Fun, fun, fun...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 10, 1999.

Thanks Mac- of course you are right :)

There are 30 IPO's this week alone - Wall Stree is like the Twilight Zone as far as I'm concerned...

the circus continues...

-- Andy (, August 10, 1999.

Andy -

Look for 10 or more of those IPOs to be sticky, with the underwriter having to drop the offer price just to get it rolling, and the stock barely holding value once it's out. The days of the 2x and 3x jumps on new IPOs seem long gone.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 11, 1999.


Stocks Close Higher as Tech Sector Rallies (8/11/99)

An odd day indeed.

For example, take the fact that two of the biggest pieces of corporate news came out of the aluminum sector. And then there were the rumors that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan might be resigning. Add to that Blockbuster (BBI:NYSE), which made its trading debut today, traded in a range of 15 to 15 1/16. It was last quoted at 15.

[Dow +132, S&P +20, Nasdaq +75. It's all good...]

Also unusual, at least recently, was the fact that stocks gained sharply, led by the beaten-up tech sector.


On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners 1,872 to 1,126 on 787.3 million shares. On the Nasdaq Stock Market, winners beat losers 2,289 to 1,558 on 905 million shares.

On the NYSE, 219 issues set new 52-week lows while 40 touched new highs. On the Nasdaq, 101 issues set new 52-week lows while new highs totaled 49.

Very nice bounce after a somewhat oversold previous day. NYSE advances beat declines 3-to-2, but 5 times as many issues posted new lows as highs. Similar on Nasdaq. Red Hat (Linux) does the dot-com IPO rocket bit, but Blockbuster finds out that an IPO nowadays does not guarantee instant megabucks...

The "Fed discounting" process continues...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 11, 1999.


LAST WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!







Moderation questions? read the FAQ