I've just uploaded a first-draft version of Chapter 2.

Based on comments that the opening paragraph of Chapter 1 presented an extreme "Infomagic" view of Y2K, I've modified the description of unemployment rates, stock market averages, etc. I've also included hyperlinks to the web sites of the leading Presidential contenders, as well as the web sites of the few politicians (Bennett, Dodd, Horn, Morella) who seem to have something substantive to say about Y2K.

Feedback and comments are welcome. Meanwhile, I'll start working on Chapter 3. I appreciate all of the other threads and postings; they'll be extremely valuable as we move into the "guts" of the book.

Thanks, Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 08, 1999

Answers

Boy, have you been a busy man! I enjoyed reading Chapter 2, and look forward to the 3rd. This is exciting, watching a book take shape, and very generous and rare that a writer would invite others (who obviously enjoy a good read, AND expressing ideas in writing) to look over his shoulder and offer input.

Just thought it might be a good idea to change .."Kevin Costner's THE POSTMAN" to "THE POSTMAN by David Brin (Bantam Books, 1985)", since it's the book version that would be most relevant to the discussion in Chapter 2.

I just grabbed my copy off of the shelf. I don't want to quote this portion of it, but the beginning of Chapter 3 has really stuck in my head. It talks about a progression to the level 10 state; one disastrous event didn't do it, it was the piling on of one crisis after another, and "a cancer within" that drove the country back into the Dark Ages. Empires fell before Y2K or atom bombs, and I imagine it was also due to a progression of events, with each contributing a new feature to the chaos and loss of "infrastructure". Look forward to your next posting ...

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), August 08, 1999.

I thought the chapters so far are especially good on trying to make sense of the real "MESS" Y2K is. That the ramifications can't all be spelled out neatly and with certainty, like so many try to do even now.

"It's conceivable that we could have a level-5 business scenario combined with a level-7 infrastructure crisis" is an area not receiving much discussion, so thanks again!

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 09, 1999.

Ed:

Yes, I think your updated numbers for Chapter 1 more accurately reflect a situation in which the country/government are "kinda" working, but don't bet money on the status of anything for any particular day..........

Taxes? I'm not sure. If the banks are that fubar'ed, how are companies sending funds in the first place?

What is the status of the Post Office, Oil/Petrochem, Agriculture? Can you touch on foreign supply lines only as they impact us here?

And how in the heck did the embedded question turn out???? [G] I'm kinda expecting manufacturing to take a nasty hit from control systems and ERP's as well as JIT.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 09, 1999.