From Statofor's Hotspot Web site, it appears that the Chinese really want to play this right up to the edge!

http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/chinataiwan/default.htm

CHINA / TAIWAN

1938 GMT, 990806 Taiwan/China  Taiwans air force was ordered on August 6 to exert restraint as sorties by Chinese planes over the Taiwan Strait increase. The air force was ordered to avoid action capable of triggering a clash so as to ensure that any responsibility for a military confrontation would rest with China.

1103 GMT, 990806 China/Taiwan  China's Central Military Commission has ordered the regional military commands of Nanjing and Guangzhou to "step up low-flying training," according to a report in the August 6 Ming Pao. The commission has also told the air force that it may "strike first in gaining the initiative" in a potential clash with Taiwan. Chinese President Jiang Zemin chairs the commission.

Things will get worse before they get better...

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 06, 1999

Answers

Crisis after crisis or at least a big problem (Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Taiwan, and so on).

Makes me wonder when one finally won't "blow over". Like Y2K, most of the public seems to think nothing bad CAN happen.

But of course theres one "crisis" (or bump, depending on your view) that CAN'T just "blow over" or be bought off.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 06, 1999.

On this anniversary of Hiroshima let us reflect what happen 54 years ago with just one bomb 140,000 human beings were killed by a fire ball of 3 million degrees and a shock wave that traveled 900 miles per hour from ground zero and destroyed every thing and everyone for a radius of 25sq miles. this weapon by today's standards is the same blast size of the triggering device of the triggers that go into our miniaturized hydrogen that have a blast yield of 62.8 megatons. So does China really have a death wish, I hope not, I like all people this beatting of the chest is stupid and dangerous. If China is really out of control maybe its time to remind them of what this is all about. Nobody will win a nuclear war. Is it worth it, Dont they realize by treaty we would be obligated to come to the aid of taiwain if they attacted them. They dont want to go down that path, It's a path of no return. Pray for peace. The children of the world deserve it. No more Hiroshimas. I said no nukes.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), August 06, 1999.

Do you have your bug out bags ready NOW?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 06, 1999.

Y2k mike: The biggest nuke ever detonated was a 50 megaton weapon by the Soviets. We have NEVER had one that big. Most of our weapons are in the 250 kiloton range. I think we may have a few 1 megaton warheads left. Not that I don't think a nuclear exchange wouldn't be the most devasting event in history. I just don't know where you got the numbers for that 68 megaton nuke.

-- kozak (kozak@formerusaf.guv), August 07, 1999.

Oh yeah, and if the Japanese would like to avoid future Hiroshimas next time tell them not to bomb us first. They act like they were the innocent victims and still have not acknowledged their culpability in the war.

-- kozak (kozak@formerusaf.guv), August 07, 1999.

Kozak the biggest Nuke test was done by the USSR was 61 megatons done above the artic circle in 1962 It raised the backround levels by several times scaring the crXp out of the world leaders enough so to get above ground testing stopped by the end of 1963 but not before all sides did a trmendous amount of above ground testing that year. The technology they were using was 50's stuff 1st generation. They were just beginning to learn how to supercharge the yields. We now are into 4th technologies highly efficient yields. They didnt know how to make the super grade stuff then. They have stuff now that can make that stuff look like firecrackers. You can thank Mr teller for that. Biggest stick on the block is bull. The only way to win is not to play.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), August 07, 1999.

Mike. I don't claim any special knowledge in this area. But I did some reading when I was presenting on Radiation Emergencies ( a medical lecture). My understanding is that the yield size of weapons has gone way down due to the accuracy. Thats why 250 kt is felt to be big enough ( I would certainly feel that way if one went of anywhere near me...). Also to my knowledge no one has tested a large yield nuke, you can't hide that every seismometer on the planet would register the event. Do you KNOW for a fact that such super yield nukes exist?

-- kozak (kozak@formerusaf.guv), August 07, 1999.