Mr. Decker...

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Mr. Decker:

One of the most troublesome facets of the DGI group is that they are profoundly uninformed. I am on the faculty of an elite research university (at least that's what we think.) I am surrounded by highly educated characters who can't even begin to mount a reasonable discussion on y2k. They haven't looked at the data and dismissed it. They simply haven't looked at the data. One of our world famous physicists on campus was quoted as saying, "I haven't run across a computer program for which there isn't a manual work around." Who's gonna write those 30,000,000 welfare checks? (i.e., he's clueless.) One of our economists couldn't hold up under my three minute cross examination. It's not that I think I won, he couldn't even hold up his end of a rational discussion. One of the economists at Prudential securities that I happened to discuss the topic with on an airflight certainly had studied the problem, yet had no idea that Russia supplied Germany with a major chunk of its energy. (I should add that he was pondering the global recession model at the time.)

This cluelessness amongst the educated elite illustrates the challenges this problem poses. I could respect well thought out conclusions. However, the only place where I get such counter arguments is on this forum from the so-called "pollys". Unfortunately, to be frank, none of us GIs on this forum are confident that the motivations of the "pollys" are any more pure than those of the most radical GIs.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), August 05, 1999

Answers

Correction: 30,000,000 medicare checks.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), August 05, 1999.

Here is the Cliff Notes version of Dave's Post:

SNIP:

One of the most troublesome facets of the DGI group is that they are profoundly uninformed

MORESNIP:

Unfortunately, to be frank, none of us GIs on this forum are confident that the motivations of the "pollys" are any more pure than those of the most radical GIs

So what are you Dave? A woefully uninformed Polly or a radical GI?

-- (Joe Pot@ calling.kettleblack), August 05, 1999.


Well, I'd like to consider myself a fairly well informed, very concerned citizen.

I, too, am disturbed at the many who will not take the time to look at available information. Even the Senate reports alone are disturbing, if you take the time to read the entire report.

Fanatic doomer? I don't think so. I don't want anything to crash. I'm too lazy to make a good farmer. Not to mention being on maintenance medication for a couple of conditions which, while not life threatening, would be troublesome in the event of long term loss of pharmeceutical supplies.

As to motivations, I "try" not to speculate. I would be surprised if someone doesn't check up on this forum. I don't think we are important enough to warrant any concerted official attack.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 05, 1999.


Dave, Thanks. I think each of us is trying to assess the scope of the problem every day. Obviously there IS a problem and some very highly regarded, intelligent people think the problem has some pretty dreadful ramifications. What they have to say makes sense.

I don't blame anyone in our society for not realizing what's going on as most people are looking at a very small slice of the picture. My friend's husband is an enginner working with elevators, for instance. He sees the problem as fixable. Because he doesn't see the supply chain situation, etc.

I'm certainly no fanatic myself. I'm a politcal liberal, not happy with a lot of what goes on in the government, but more disgusted than fanatically upset. I'm generally comfortable and complacent. I cannot do handcrafts and the hardest hour's work I ever had was sodbusting with my friends for their garden, not a happy experience. I wish the problem would just go away, but I also would like to survive, for some reason (it's hardwired in). So, I am preparing.

The people around me GIed before I did. My friend read the VAnity Fair article and was freaked while I was just shrugging my shoulders. Finally, after doing the research, I went, "Oh, crap...." I was scard to death.

I'm not scared to death anymore, because I accept the fact that my family, my friends, and I might not survive. I think the total radicalism comes from the thought, "I MUST survive." The radical GIs believe their guns will beat back whatever may come and the radical pollies think their denial will beat it back. But this is bigger than any of us and what will happen, will happen. Be prudent, but be ready to accept whatever may come.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 05, 1999.


Just remember that there's alot of noise out there. Following current event's is very difficult with all the alledged information that is presented to us. It takes time that many people don't have. Plus, many fields have fractured in to specialization. I am an IT profesional, but know very little about main frames.

Most people only pay attention to what is shoved in their face. Even the brightest of us can't follow the latest in, say, the Karen independance movement in Burma if we had no idea it was going on in the first place.

'course, as voters it IS our job to keep informed.

Keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), August 05, 1999.



Mara, your post is very powerful. I think it speaks volumes and describes most of my family sans them being GIs.

Personally, I think manual workarounds are absolutely possible. After all, there was a time in this country when things were done without computers. The problem is that the population was, uh, a little lower in number.

I don't think people take in to account the size and scope of the problem. The elevator engineer can't see how having a disruption in spare parts could not only shut down the elevators but put him out of work. As for the 30,000,000 medicare checks, at least a percentage could be written manually but can you imagine the workforce required? If a month is 30 days long then that is a million checks a day that must be written and signed. How many checks can a person write out and sign or stamp in a day? Who would do this? How long could a person do this without burning out or suffering a medical condition themselves? And this is just medicare.

In my opinion, bottom line, going manual = devolutionary spiral. The system allows for these current population levels because it sustains it with automation and technology. The people that die off wont just be the elderly and the invalid and the infirmed. There will also be scientists, and computer professionals, etc. Eventually, a comfortable level in population will be reached. Personally, I'm not comfortable seeing anyone die because of any problem directly or indirectly associated with Y2k. I wonder how TPTB and those responsible for the glitches feel about it.

Dave, I think your point regarding the educated elite is very, very true. The really interesting thing is that if you push these people hard enough they eventually retreat to the same arguments all other denialists retreat to. "They wouldn't let that happen" and "It couldn't happen here" and "I can't see how a country as great as this one is could allow problems to occur".

I'd love to listen to a well-thought out argument about why I see going manual would result in and actually require a drop off in current population levels. I would certainly sigh in relief.

Mike

==========================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 05, 1999.


pardon me, that last paragraph should have read,

I'd love to listen to a well-thought out argument about why going manual wouldn't result in and actually require a drop off in current population levels. I would certainly sigh in relief.

Mike =========================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 05, 1999.


It's simple Dave

Your brain must be bigger than theirs..........right??

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 05, 1999.


Government operations going MANUAL. Have you ever spent anytime interfacing with the IRS, SS, or any other division? The prospect of these folks having to go MANUAL is the scariest aspect of Y2K yet posed. Stop and think about this for just a minute people.

-- For (your@info.com), August 05, 1999.

Hey, Mr. Surf's Up Dude---

For once I think you actually have the correct answer! Kudos!

-- (T@q.M.S.q), August 05, 1999.



No Deano and Engineer friend, Dave's brain is obviously BETTER than theirs, not bigger. Bigger is not always better. Quality over quantity. Style over substance. Left over right. Oh sorry, wrong platitude.

-- Troll- (watching@the.bridge), August 05, 1999.

Troll and T@q.M.S.q

Boy! You guys must be the smartest people in the whole wide world! How do you get through doorways with them big ol' heads??

Gosh, I wish I was like you......ya know......smart and all......

Do you guys farm pigs too???

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 05, 1999.


Dave,

It's a little unfair to assume a person with an advanced degree in one subject has expertise outside his or her academic field. For example, a member of your economics faculty might not know how to bake an apple pie. In fact, the current trend in academia is towards extreme specialization. As one who prefers a cross-disciplinary method, I am critical of this narrow approach to complex problems. Most academics are poorly prepared for a broad, complex problem like Y2K.

On the other hand, the world is full of "practitioners." These are the folks who work in the real world... and know how messy the day-to- day life of commerce and industry can be. These are the men and women actually fixing Y2K. (With all due respect, the academics will be lucky to have their universities fully functional on rollover.) Leaders in the private sector understand how the system works... not from a econometric model, but from experience where real money is at stake. While I do not hold the American capitalist as a model of morality... don't bet against him (or her) when there's money on the line.

A good businessman is ahead of the power curve on Y2K... not only in terms of internal remediation, but external suppliers. The really savvy operator is looking for the profit opportunities if a competitor stumbles. In short, Dave, if academics ruled the world, I'd share your fear. It will be 2003 before the economists even begin sorting out what happened.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 05, 1999.


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