Y2K? Y Indeed, Many Shrug

By Rajiv Chandrasekaran Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, August 4, 1999; Page A01

A year ago, the leaders of the Northern Virginia Year 2000 Community Action Group envisioned themselves as modern-day Civil Defense "block wardens," preparing their neighbors for the chaos that the Y2K computer glitch would unleash.

They planned to offer training sessions on stockpiling food, purifying water and girding for long-term power outages. Expecting ever-greater public anxiety over year-end computer failures, the group awaited a willing army of volunteers, eager to pass out fliers, share tips on installing wood stoves and drive neighbors to Costco for cases of canned tuna.

But now, five months from the moment of truth, many of those efforts have been scrapped. Not because the leaders suddenly feel that Y2K will be a non-event -- they are as fearful as ever. They just haven't been able to convince their neighbors.

Last year, the Northern Virginia group had more than 40 regular participants. Now, it barely draws a dozen people to its meetings, and several recent "What Is Y2K?" introductory sessions, intended to bring new faces into the fold, have failed to lure a single attendee.

"People have become very complacent about Y2K," bemoaned Jay Golter, the group's president. "They think the problem has been solved, so they don't want to hear us talking about storing food and making other preparations."

Golter's predicament is similar to that of year 2000 community groups across the country. Such organizations, formed by volunteers concerned that Y2K could disrupt nearly every aspect of daily life, now find themselves unable to attract and retain members as public confidence in the massive global computer-repair effort grows.

In Elverson, Pa., the Daniel Boone Y2K Preparedness Group decided to take the summer off because, its founder says, "not too many folks show up." In Freeport, Maine, the Y2K community organization has scotched plans to bring in a speaker from the Red Cross because of lackluster participation. And along California's central coast, a Y2K community group actually disbanded earlier this year after "everyone got bored with the subject," said Bill Seavey, who initially organized the effort.

"It's a tough sell," said Stephen Brown, who heads the group in Freeport. "People think everything will be just fine."

Y2K community groups in Potomac, Silver Spring and Southern Maryland also have seen a precipitous drop in attendance in recent months. The Southern Maryland Millennium Action Committee, for instance, had more than 350 people at its inaugural meeting in January but only 25 at its gathering last month.

The year 2000 problem, commonly known as Y2K, stems from the fact that millions of computers, as well as microchips in many electronic devices, were programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year, assuming that the first two would be 1 and 9. On Jan. 1, 2000, unprepared machines will understand the year "00" not as 2000 but as 1900, potentially causing them to shut down or stop working properly.

Just how disruptive Y2K will be remains in dispute. Many technology experts contend that large businesses and government agencies have made remarkable strides in fixing their electronic systems and appear to be on track to enter the new year with few difficulties. But other specialists say glitches probably will cause computer failures in early January, possibly affecting the flow of goods and services worldwide.

Most Y2K community activists remain skeptical of official pronouncements that all will be well. But with recent polls showing that a clear majority of Americans -- 84 percent, according to an Associated Press survey -- expect minor problems or none at all come January, the groups find themselves facing a more immediate crisis of their own.

Golter this summer sent e-mail to his members, telling them that the "original goals of NOVA Y2K are no longer achievable" and that "our credibility in the eyes of others is diminished by our inability to draw people to our cause." He urged members to gather for a soul-searching meeting where they would try to get a handle on what they've been doing wrong and figure out how, in the few remaining months, to convince their neighbors of the impending calamity.

Golter sent the e-mail to about 900 people on the group's mailing list. He passed out 1,000 fliers about the meeting at the Franconia-Springfield Metro station. He arranged to hold the session in a 150-seat auditorium in a Tysons Corner office building. He expected a big turnout.

But on a recent Monday night, Golter finds himself standing before a scant 16 people. Undeterred, he launches into his introduction.

"We started a year and a half ago with all these grand visions," says Golter, 43, an Alexandria resident who works as a financial analyst for the federal government. "We were going to get all of our neighborhoods organized. We were going to work with government officials and schools and churches. But it's pretty late in the day to be successful with that."

Nowadays, Golter says, he gets e-mail from group members saying, "I've given up on my neighbors and friends. They laugh at me. I just want to know how to store beans."

The intimate group gathered in the Tysons building is a cross-section of Northern Virginia: federal workers, computer programmers, church leaders, housewives, a former grass-roots organizer for the firearms lobby. There are eight men and eight women. The men wear short-sleeve dress shirts. Everyone has a note pad and pen. Someone circulates an article from a newspaper food section with recipes featuring Spam, tuna, beans and other commonly stockpiled products.

Before beginning the discussion, Golter pauses to peddle a few cut-rate books. A tome titled "How to 2000," list price $50, now just $10. A Y2K "Investors Survival Guide," marked $25, yours for $10. Proceeds go toward the group's expenses. But there are no takers.

Golter hands the meeting over to Ray Strackbein, one of the group's most active members. Fearing the worst, Ray and his wife, Sally, both of whom work in the technology industry, have stockpiled dozens of cans of tuna, sausages and Spam, not to mention dried beans and Velveeta, in their Fairfax County basement.

Sally has written a cookbook titled "Y2K Kitchen" containing recipes for "Beanie Spammie" and "Bean and Spam Soup" and "Beans Beans Beans Salad." (She hawks the book on the Internet.) The couple have become minor celebrities in the Y2K world: Their preparations have been mentioned by NBC News, Fox News, even Hungarian television.

Armed with a felt-tip pen and a large easel, Strackbein solicits ideas about how to save the organization.

The first to pipe up is a man sitting in the front row, Aldric Saucier, who identifies himself as a physicist and a newcomer to the group. "I've got a problem with this Y2K thing," Saucier says. "I want to see the proof there's going to be a problem."

Strackbein frowns and looks toward Golter. "Falls Church is going to have a tricentennial festival," Golter says, changing the subject. "We should try to have a presence at that event."

The physicist's skepticism goes unaddressed.

A woman who says she is representing Calvary Road Baptist Church in Alexandria explains how the congregation is buying a generator and setting up a small food stockpile. She suggests the group work more actively with churches.

Another woman urges group members to attend a series of town meetings sponsored by Fairfax County's government. She suggests that public officials be prodded with questions: "Where are the food-distribution centers? Where are the shelters?"

And then the physicist tries again. "I don't believe this is a big problem at all," Saucier says. "I think there's a lot of hype here."

This time, his comments aren't ignored. "You're throwing water on our meeting here," retorts a visibly annoyed Strackbein.

"We want to get together in a room of people who don't think we are nuts," adds Gail Fialkow, the group's treasurer.

The physicist's doubts hit group members exactly in their most vulnerable spot. With five months to go, they wonder whether they should spend their precious time trying to convince unbelievers or preaching to the proverbial choir, providing support to people who want to prepare.

Although their proselytizing often is met with outright derision, most members don't want to retreat from that effort. After all, says Golter, the reason they formed a group instead of heading to the hills like many other Y2K pessimists was to help their neighbors.

"We're not individualists," Golter says. "We're not interested in helping people find land in West Virginia. One of the very fundamental goals of our organization is to support the community."

Golter and his fellow members believe their neighbors have received "irresponsibly optimistic" assessments from politicians and the news media about the progress of Y2K repairs at big businesses and government agencies.

The group aims to push its perspective into view with grass-roots techniques: pass out fliers, show up at community events and use the Internet. "We could have a march on the Mall," says Susan Attas, a computer scientist who lives in Vienna.

"Would that be a 10-person march?" Fialkow asks sardonically.

One man suggests creating a "Y2K haunted house" at Halloween to demonstrate the impact of a loss of electricity and other services on one family.

The group then wonders whether its message is too extreme for the masses. Instead of advising people to store several months' worth of food, why not initially suggest stashing away enough for a week, which is what the Red Cross recommends, another man says. Then, after people start stockpiling, members can urge them to increase their cache, he says.

"I think we need to monitor our language," Attas says. "I leave every meeting feeling scared even though I've been preparing." She suggests they describe what they are doing as an "insurance policy." "We have life insurance and health insurance and car insurance. Storing food and water is Y2K insurance."

And, she adds, if nothing happens, "you can eat your insurance premium."

After generating four pages of ideas on the easel, Strackbein injects a dose of reality. "We can't even get a brochure published because the same four people have to do it." Money is also an issue. The group's request for a grant from the Center for Y2K and Society, which has funded other community organizations, recently was turned down.

Eventually, the members decide to focus on a big "preparedness event" in October. It's not clear what the event will entail, but the group will spend the intervening weeks trying to get people to attend.

"It's disappointing and frustrating," Golter said after the meeting. "We had all these great things we wanted to do." But he believes there's still time to make a difference. "Our neighbors may not be listening to us just yet. But we're not giving up on them."

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 05, 1999

Answers

I have met Mrs. Strackbein in person. She seems very nice and well intentioned and I wish her the best of luck in her entrepreneurial pursuits.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 05, 1999.

My favorite line: "We want to get together in a room of people who don't think we are nuts," adds Gail Fialkow, the group's treasurer.

Boy that speaks for so many people on so many of the chatrooms and websites. This is what they call "millennial madness" and these people are going to need their own little 12-step program when this is over.

-- Fat Tony (FatTony@youmammashouse.com), August 05, 1999.

Its more likely you'll need a can of beans (from them, no doubt) when "this is over".

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 05, 1999.

Well,

It looks to me that the Gov. investment into a media spin control campaign is paying off.... at least so it seems.

I wonder how big the backlash will be after the event hit.

Public opinion can and will swing from complacency and denial to rage and aggression in a heartbeat.

-- justme (justme@justme.net), August 05, 1999.

justme said: "It looks to me that the Gov. investment into a media spin control campaign is paying off"

I call it the "Mother of all Memes" - Y2K is all hoax and hype.

Without any evidence to support it (and with vast evidence to the contrary) the masses have swallowed it hook line and sinker.

Was that a Rendon group creation? Who DID come up with the "hoax" and "hype" lines? Hope they were well paid. Hope they can sleep well about 6 months from now.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), August 05, 1999.

My favorite line is:

"You're throwing water on our meeting here,"

...which is the essential complaint from the doomers on this forum when confronted with those of us who are not Y2Kult members...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 05, 1999.

Just woke up - no coffee yet.....

It had better be no more than a BITR - Emergency services around here were overwhelmed trying to provide for evacuees from a fairly small area - I can't even imagine them trying to provide for people if there are ANY widespread problems. It seems really sad that when I talk to people close to me, I gently mention that they might want to prep for a week or two - they say "Oh I have been meaning to do that" or "we figure we will do that in November or December if things are looking bad".

I truly hope the good news we are being blasted with comes true..... Though I feel like I should buy a pair of ruby slippers to help.

Ahhhhhh cofeeeeeeeee :)

-- Kristi (securxsys@cs.com), August 05, 1999.

Do not stray from your WELL CONCEIVED PLAN of preparation.

The noise level of the paid/unpaid pollies is accelerating at Mach 5. This tells me their concern over the implications y2k is growing at the same rate.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 05, 1999.

Mr Decker, This is not good news about remeidation. This is not NEWS. This is a light feature story. Did you mistake it for news? This has nothing to do with whether we will be safe or not early next year, whether the supply chain will hold or not. Whether the power will stay on and clean water will run. That's all I care about, not who is making fun of whom.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 05, 1999.

It's quite possible that there are other cities who, like Washington D.C., waited until the summer of 1998 (or even later) to start working on Y2K:

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

District Prepares for Y2K System Failures

By Eric Lipton

Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, June 28, 1999; Page A1

The District government, recognizing that its year 2000 repair program likely will not be completed on time, is planning a massive New Year's Eve mobilization of emergency personnel and other staff to ensure that critical city services are not interrupted if computer systems fail.

Police will be stationed at more than 120 locations across the city, working 12-hour shifts, to take walk-in requests for emergency services. Twenty-one "warming centers," each supplied with food, water and cots, will open. School crossing guards will be on call, ready to replace traffic lights at major intersections. And D.C. General Hospital will have extra staff members  as many as 175  on site.

These are just a few of the 88 contingency and emergency plans the District is feverishly working to put in place by the end of the year. Similar efforts are underway across the United States among governments and private companies, but in the District, officials have acknowledged the city is so far behind on its Y2K fix that it may have to rely on some of these "work-around" techniques.

"Because we began late, there may be things that suffer an interruption that we did not completely get to," said D.C. Chief Technology Officer Suzanne J. Peck. "Within our agencies ... in some function, a handful may fail temporarily."

Officials are confident that most of these plans  even those that will be put into effect regardless of any system failure  will not be needed, and that even in the District, Y2K will be one of the century's most hyped nonevents.

City officials want to convince the public that the new year will begin in the nation's capital without chaos no matter what happens with D.C. operations or outside services such as telephone, gas and electricity.

"Our intent is not to alarm people, but put people at ease that things are under control," Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) said yesterday. "We are going to have this city work for people."

Added Cmdr. David B. McDonald, the supervisor of police Y2K planning: "We want to reassure the residents and visitors to the District that even if Armageddon comes, we will assist and protect the public."

The D.C. Council will be briefed on the public safety contingency plans at an oversight hearing this morning.

The District's own assessment of its progress in making year 2000 fixes demonstrates the need for such planning: With six months left in the year, only 41 percent of the District's 336 major computer systems have been fixed. The rest are scheduled to be repaired and tested by the end of October.

Of the city's 73 agencies, 19  including key departments such as Health, Housing and Community Development; Tax and Revenue; Child and Family Services; and Public Works  are not even halfway done with their year 2000 repairs and planning.

Williams said he is "not at all surprised" that so much work remains, given the city's late start on addressing the Y2K problem. But he added that he is reasonably comfortable with the status of the city's Y2K repair efforts and has the impression that the District is about even with other major cities, saying the city may be understating its "readiness."

Virginia and Maryland, by comparison, say their government systems are virtually Y2K-proof, and while they also have contingency plans, they are more confident that they won't have to use them.

[snip]

The District's late start is largely to blame for its lagging effort. While Maryland and Virginia began working on the problem several years ago, the District waited until last summer. Recognizing the danger of a catastrophic failure in the city, Congress gave the District $62 million in emergency funding this year to accelerate the work. But even with an army of more than 300 consultants at work  most under a $76 million contract with IBM Corp.  success is far from assured.

The struggle at D.C. General Hospital illustrates the challenge. D.C. General and its related health care divisions are about 48 percent "ready," according to ratings released Wednesday by the District's year 2000 program.

The hospital's mainframe computer system  which handles medical records, patient accounts, budgeting, laboratory data, patient registration and other hospital operations  will falter at year's end unless several million dollars in repairs are made.

The city is rushing to install a new computer system, but the first phase is not scheduled to be operating until mid-September. Officials are debating whether to repair the old computer in case the new one is not ready.

And that is only the beginning.

An estimated 80 percent of the 1,000 pagers assigned to staff at D.C. General and other divisions of the city's hospital and health care network are not Y2K compatible. At the start of June, the city had not issued a purchase order to buy replacements.

Each of the hospital's four ultrasound machines and 21 defibrillators  used to reestablish a regular heartbeat-is not Y2K compliant, although replacements are on order. And the critical-care monitoring system in the intensive-care unit also must be replaced.

"You can't have an emergency room without a defibrillator. You can't have an intensive-care unit without monitors," said William D. Wild, senior vice president for compliance at D.C. General.

Given all this uncertainty  and fewer than 190 days before the end of the year  D.C. General administrators and staff members are spending hundreds of hours preparing backup plans.

The 250-bed hospital, which served 51,237 in its emergency room last year and 80,000 in its hospital clinics, is arranging to have 50 temporary workers available to hand-process records and other tasks if computers fail. As many as 124 employees  including nurses, doctors and financial staff members  may be asked to stay overnight on New Year's Eve, Wild said.

An extra 30 to 60 days' worth of pharmaceuticals is being ordered, and up to 90 days' worth of other basic supplies  from bottled water to bandages  is being purchased. The cost to the city just for the contingency planning, excluding the basic Y2K repairs, is about $4 million.

Even at agencies where year 2000 repairs are farther along, extensive contingency planning is underway. The broadest effort involves emergency services, where the plans are largely directed at anticipating failure of outside utilities such as electricity and telephone  all extremely unlikely.

"The phone company says they are 98 percent certain it won't go down. The power companies say they are 99 percent certain everything will work," McDonald said. "But if that 2 percent and 1 percent cross, we need to be prepared."

Every officer in the city's 3,600-person police force will work 12- hour shifts during the New Year's weekend. Starting about 10:30 p.m. on New Year's Eve, the police department will deploy two-person teams to 120 locations across the District, including fire stations, convenience stores and fast-food restaurants.

Each officer will have a radio, and each of the 10 antenna sites for the radio system will have a backup generator. The city's 150 school crossing guards will learn how to handle traffic if lights go out. Staff is prepared to process crime reports and bookings by hand.

"We can't say, 'Sorry, Mr. Burglar, we can't book you today. Why don't you come back tomorrow?' " McDonald said.

At the Fire and Emergency Medical Services Department, leave time is being restricted for the 1,763-member staff between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15. Crews on the 16 ladder trucks are being given the tools and training to perform elevator rescues, supplementing the city's three regular rescue squads.

Backup to the city's computer-aided dispatch system is ready: thousands of 3-by-5 cards detailing which trucks to send depending on the address of a call. Fire trucks and ambulances already have been checked.

The city's Emergency Operations Center will be in gear before New Year's Eve, staffed by the public-safety-related agencies, including the Red Cross and the National Guard. All 21 warming centers, most at city schools, will be open New Year's Eve.

"If need be, people who go to these centers will be warm. They will have somewhere to sleep and something to eat," Emergency Management Program Officer Barbara Childs said.

The contingency planning extends far beyond the central emergency agencies.

The D.C. Water and Sewer Authority, for example, will spend more than $1 million to rent several locomotive-size generators to ensure that water will flow if the electricity goes out.

The Public Works Department will ensure that the city has 87,000 gallons of vehicle fuel available, double the normal supply. Extra truck parts, backup generators and other supplies also are on order. Plans have even been made for trash collection crews (they would work day and night), tree maintenance (complaints would be taken at the Reeves Municipal Center on 14th Street NW) and rat patrol (private exterminators would be used).

Officials are urging residents to prepare for the new year as well, stocking up on food, fuel, bottled water and other supplies as they would for a winter storm.

Jack L. Brock Jr., a U.S. General Accounting Office computer expert who described the city's Y2K outlook in February as "bleak," said last week that while he is reassured the city is making contingency plans, it must be able to implement them.

"They can't just be paper plans," said Brock, whose office is about to start another review of the District's Y2K status for Congress. "They have to do enough testing and validation to be confident that they will work."

Interim City Administrator Norman Dong said Williams is committed to ensuring that the plans work. To date, 38 of the 88 contingency plans are in draft or final form. From July until September, 23 mission- critical city agencies will hold mock drills.

"Our hope and expectation is that it will be business as usual," Dong said. "But we are taking nothing for granted. We want to make sure we are covered, that no matter what happens, we are prepared."

) 1999 The Washington Post Company

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-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 05, 1999.

Last evening I took two long-retired neighbor ladies to the Fairfax County Y2K Community Meeting at our county givernment auditorium. There were about 70 people present. They did not permit dialogue, but rather, we could submit questions on paper, which means there was no time for interaction and refutation. Every single panelist representing public utilities and services said the same thing: we are/will be ready. The questions were of such a calibre of information that I realized that many of the attendees were thoroughly GI, which was borne out later when some of the Y2K Community Action group members spoke with me. However, they and I got the "canned" answers written by PR experts.

What troubled me most, among several troubling things, was that the person responsible for the entire Y2K effort from the human services branch of county government was recommending only a 3-day supply, "just in case" and sounding quite reassuring. We were told that they didn't yet know where, but they would set up a warming shelter in some high-school when they saw where it was needed...meaning as a crisis was occurring!!!

After the meeting I was speaking with a GI from the NOVA group when this woman and her other agent (forget title) were passing, and I asked her to speak with me. I suggested that if they tell people that they should only prepare for 3 days then if we have an extended power outage and other problems at Y2K, this will not be enough. I said that many do not expect everything to happen at the stroke of midnight, but rather, as the first few weeks of 2000 unfold, thus more food would be necessary. I suggested they suggest a month's food. Know what my answers were? Taxpayers, GIs, and all who care about other people, take a deep breath before reading on!

1. If they don't use the food the first few days, then they will have it later. (I explained 3 days food would still only last 3 days.) 2. If we were to tell them a month, they would panic. (When I explained to them that if handled correctly, they would not, as I did not. That true panic would set in if they were confronted in 2000 with no food or water.) 3. There are people who have little money with which to prepare. (I explained that I live paycheck to paycheck, but told them how I am doing it. I also explained that people on limited incomes could not do it later, but could do it gradually, if only they knew now.) 4. There are people who live in small apartments or one room, and they couldn't store it. (I explained that they could store a month's worth, and that some of us know how to show them how to do it, and know of people with small space who are doing it.) 4. We have 30 high schools in the county, and they could not afford to prepare them all. They could not anticipate where the shelter would be needed ahead of time. (I explained that they could prepare several in strategic locations ahead of time..that I was sure there was money somewhere for this.) 4.They could not follow the City of Manassas: Manassas has only one high school. (I had explained that Manassas, which I learned about on this forum, has an excellent plan they have already been implementing, and I was sure they would be glad to share it.)

Take your blood pressure meds before you read the next incredible line! The other shocker was that the police and fire chiefs told the audience that if the phones went down, I kid you not, that people could go to the nearest fire or police station for help!!!

One of my neighbors exclaimed aloud at this, "Are they kidding, if you or someone in your house is having a heart attack or your house is on fire, you could WALK to a station?!"

The other young GI gentleman who was with me as we spoke to the above women said to them, "We talk and talk to others, but because they do not hear it from a credible official source, they think we are just kooks. They need to hear it from YOU." No response. When my two neighbors pulled me away at 1 p.m., he and his wife were still trying to get through to them.

So you see, no amount of community awareness efforts on our parts will make much of an impression if the leaders are blind leaders of the blind. I intend to confine my efforts to one-by-one enlightenment of others I care about.

Guess the one good thing that came out of the meeting? Two neighbors who are sharp and saw through the spin, and who are now GI!!!

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), August 05, 1999.

Correction: that should read 11 p.m.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), August 05, 1999.