What's up with the nasdaq? does not look pretty. For those looking for trends. The last five days don't look pretty! hold your breath!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), August 04, 1999

Answers

I've said over and over again I'm clueless about the market and trying to learn.

It appears really weak to me. The Dow way up earlier today and it's now up 46 (12:33pm, pst)

Nasdaq has really looked weak recently. It's down 39 and the S&P is down 11.

Dow seems to be falling from it's gains fairly steadily.

I dunno...just looks weak.

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 04, 1999.

Ignore the Dow - that's just 30 selected stocks. Look at the volume.

Over the past week, 2/3 of all issues are declining every day. Dunno if those are the SAME issues, of course! Over that same time, 2/3 of all volume is in shares with declining prices.

I'm no expert. Is that normal?

-- huh (a@b.c), August 04, 1999.

I think the Dow is usually mentioned because it represents the largest value. Supposedly it's made up of the larger blue chip stocks, or the conservative bets. But I have noticed that the last five days Nasdaq has been going down at a rate roughly comprable to the Dow climbing. This is value, not percentage of the whole. Then the Dow finishes low after initial gains. Makes me think of people leaving the Nasdaq because of fears of high tech stocks loosing value, and others already in the Dow getting out at the same rate. The Dow has been roughly flat for two weeks. Other major indices have been steadily declinig. I follow this here:

http://www.nasdaq-amex.com/asp/majorindices_java.stm

There's alot of red on that board. The CBOE Gold index has been climbing the last three days.

Just so you know, I depend on econ-geeks like Brian and Mr. Decker to translate all this into something I understand. Wouldn't know a CBOE from a bow tie.

I still think the market is effected by how TV makes people feel about the economy rather than being realated to any actual profits or losses.

Keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), August 04, 1999.

Nadaq down -48.36.

Well, just heard that the Nasdaq has officially "corrected". That is, it is down over 10% and actually is down 11% since it's June highs.

Wonder where the bottom will be?

The Dow finished down -2.54. Interesting considering it had been up as much as 150 today. A lot of weakness at the end of the day.

Talking head from the trading floor suggested Friday would show more "lumps".

Stay tuned I guess.

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 04, 1999.

I'm no expert either, but it sounds like a bear market to me.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), August 04, 1999.

I doubt that we can call a bear market on a few days of trading.

But it does make me nervous, just watching as an outsider.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 04, 1999.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was boosted by just one event: Dow Chemical buying Union Carbide. Union-Carbide was up 11 and is a Dow stock (in more ways than one now, it seems), so it basically propped up the rest of the index. Take out this deal and the DJIA drops even more today.

Volume is low (meaning many are on the sidelines). Declines beat advances by about 2-to-1 (meaning a broad market retreat). As noted, the Nasdaq (aka "Tech Stocks 'R' Us") is in the process of "correcting". The air seems to leaking out of the stock bubble. Let us all hope that folks like Greenspan can keep a steady hand on whatever valves they can find.

I posted one market-watcher's take on current market "fears" (his word, not mine) here: Dejavue to you all too

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 04, 1999.

The rumors I hear point to the Dow reacting skittishly in anticipation of Greenspan raising the rates again later this month. There is a market indicator due out this Friday that is supposed to be a relatively good indicator of how Greenspan will act. As I recall, the market factored in the last rate increase well in advance to it being declared, and the market quickly took off again after it was declared. The same sequence may be happening now (or not).

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), August 04, 1999.

http://www.bearmarketcentral.com

Click on GRRRR-

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), August 04, 1999.

I think I mentioned once before that unless there is about a ten percent drop it isn't much of a 'crash'. Regardless of y2k the idea of stocks selling for 32 times annual dividends is ridiculous.

Lots of people will make money on a long slide. I think if y2k starts to really dent the market it will be like an avalanche, and the market will be shut down.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), August 04, 1999.

Why not just correcting itself from the blind optimism of the last few quarters? Even this week people who can get their hands on IPO's have done really well on over valued internet/tech stock.

-- Roger (pecosrog@earthlink.net), August 04, 1999.

Just raiding the stops.

-- treading litely (rs@marketwatch.com), August 04, 1999.

Mac: Maybe we should keep that thread. It's a good thread to have because it keeps us tuned into what the "experts" are saying and then we can read between the lines. I posted those excerpts to show what was being reported then and what people would report now. Thanks for your input.

-- dejavuelou (dejavuelou@dejavuelou.com), August 04, 1999.

Roger -

Most IPOs on 7/30 and 8/3 lost value. The bloom is off that rose, it would seem:

(Hope the formatting works...)

03-Aug-99 Company Name (Ticker) Price Date Close %Change

1-800-Flowers.com Inc (FLWS) 21 03-Aug 18 1/8 -13%

BigStar Entertainment (BGST) 10 03-Aug 8 1/8 -18%

Quotesmith.com Inc. (QUOT) 11 03-Aug 9 5/8 -12%

Splitrock Services (SPLT) 10 03-Aug 9 -10%

Accrue Software (ACRU) 10 30-Jul 10 1/8 1%

Aironet Wireless Comm. (AIRO) 11 30-Jul 9 7/8 -10%

Biopure Corp (BPUR) 12 30-Jul 8 1/4 -31%

Digex Inc (DIGX) 17 30-Jul 19 1/8 13%

MIIX Group (MHU) 13 1/2 30-Jul 17 1/8 27%

N2H2 INC (NTWO) 13 30-Jul 9 -31%

NetIQ Corp (NTIQ) 13 30-Jul 15 16%

Watchguard Tech. (WGRD) 13 30-Jul 11 1/2 -12%

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 04, 1999.

Blast... Well, just read that last value for "%Change". Lots of negatives...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 04, 1999.

Its A BUBBLE:BUBBLES BURST,so will this one. Unfortunately Greenspan's Oct.98 intervention will come back to haunt him.The market(Casino,Ponzi Scheme)call it what u will,is all about confidence,too much confidence=feel good= spend=deplete savings=too much debt=stocmarket mania=irrational exhuberance=get something for nothing.Suddenly,realization,hey I've gone too far there is too much on the line here,this could be dangerous=fear=rational thinking process returns=more fear=piper must be paid=panic=FIRE IN THE THEATRE.Guess what happens next.Picture 300 people in a theatre all running for that one same exit.Doesn't make sense,but that's what happens when panic turns to hysteria.Y2k will also be about confidence,bad things will happen at rollover,will be made much much worse if in the middle of serious market crash. Possible Sequence: Market crash(coming Months)-20%=feel poorer=will spend less=more losses on wallsteet=feel much poorer=what happened to my 401k= bye bye easystreet=Its the governments fault I d'ont trust them= cash withdrawls=higher intrest rates=more market mayhem=Y2K! AHHHH .................................................................. For a graphical explanation

http://home.earthlink.net/~amn/charts.html

Good explanation of market..EXCELENT...must read

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/morrison071499.html

-- Drken (dr@watchoutbelow.splat), August 04, 1999.

Expert said this morning on cnbc at 6:35 am.,,,,,, "Expect the dow to be at 6,000/7,000 by sept/oct. FYI only!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), August 04, 1999.

Well, you're right Mac and like usual, I'm a (couple) days late and a dollar short.

Glad my stock portfolio is all out in the back pasture this year!

-- Roger (pecosrog@earthlink.net), August 04, 1999.

Two interesting items maybe connected here....the dollar has been falling the past two weeks, (read international scene is cashing in bucks/stocks and heading for Euro dollars and yen)...and, The Dow is the top 30 blue chippies, easily manipulated with BIG BUCKS, to keep investors "thinking" things are great. Meanwhile, nasdaq has been reflecting, I think, the huge monies being spent on fixes, not new research. Also, on tonight's NPR news, the mortgage rates are over 8% now, the "good-times-are-rolling" days over, at least while Greenspan cools down the economy.

-- see no evil (of note@lookaround.world), August 05, 1999.