Great Wash Post Story On Complacency

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

People are fat and happy. Our shouts and screams are too far away for most to hear, and when they do hear them they think that we're crazy.

---------Alexi.

Washington Post Story

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-/business/longterm/y2k/y2k.htm

For Educational Purposes Only:

---------------------

Washingtonpost.com: Business Y2K Computer Bug

By Rajiv Chandrasekaran

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, August 4, 1999; Page A1

A year ago, the leaders of the Northern Virginia Year 2000 Community Action Group envisioned themselves as modern-day Civil Defense "block wardens," preparing their neighbors for the chaos that the Y2K computer glitch would unleash.

They planned to offer training sessions on stockpiling food, purifying water and girding for long-term power outages. Expecting ever-greater public anxiety over year-end computer failures, the group awaited a willing army of volunteers, eager to pass out fliers, share tips on installing wood stoves and drive neighbors to Costco for cases of canned tuna.

But now, five months from the moment of truth, many of those efforts have been scrapped. Not because the leaders suddenly feel that Y2K will be a non-event -- they are as fearful as ever. They just haven't been able to convince their neighbors.

Last year, the Northern Virginia group had more than 40 regular participants. Now, it barely draws a dozen people to its meetings, and several recent "What Is Y2K?" introductory sessions, intended to bring new faces into the fold, have failed to lure a single attendee.

"People have become very complacent about Y2K," bemoaned Jay Golter, the group's president. "They think the problem has been solved, so they don't want to hear us talking about storing food and making other preparations."

Golter's predicament is similar to that of year 2000 community groups across the country. Such organizations, formed by volunteers concerned that Y2K could disrupt nearly every aspect of daily life, now find themselves unable to attract and retain members as public confidence in the massive global computer-repair effort grows.

In Elverson, Pa., the Daniel Boone Y2K Preparedness Group decided to take the summer off because, its founder says, "not too many folks show up." In Freeport, Maine, the Y2K community organization has scotched plans to bring in a speaker from the Red Cross because of lackluster participation. And along California's central coast, a Y2K community group actually disbanded earlier this year after "everyone got bored with the subject," said Bill Seavey, who initially organized the effort.

"It's a tough sell," said Stephen Brown, who heads the group in Freeport. "People think everything will be just fine."

Y2K community groups in Potomac, Silver Spring and Southern Maryland also have seen a precipitous drop in attendance in recent months. The Southern Maryland Millennium Action Committee, for instance, had more than 350 people at its inaugural meeting in January but only 25 at its gathering last month.

The year 2000 problem, commonly known as Y2K, stems from the fact that millions of computers, as well as microchips in many electronic devices, were programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year, assuming that the first two would be 1 and 9. On Jan. 1, 2000, unprepared machines will understand the year "00" not as 2000 but as 1900, potentially causing them to shut down or stop working properly.

Just how disruptive Y2K will be remains in dispute. Many technology experts contend that large businesses and government agencies have made remarkable strides in fixing their electronic systems and appear to be on track to enter the new year with few difficulties. But other specialists say glitches probably will cause computer failures in early January, possibly affecting the flow of goods and services worldwide.

Most Y2K community activists remain skeptical of official pronouncements that all will be well. But with recent polls showing that a clear majority of Americans -- 84 percent, according to an Associated Press survey -- expect minor problems or none at all come January, the groups find themselves facing a more immediate crisis of their own.

Golter this summer sent e-mail to his members, telling them that the "original goals of NOVA Y2K are no longer achievable" and that "our credibility in the eyes of others is diminished by our inability to draw people to our cause." He urged members to gather for a soul-searching meeting where they would try to get a handle on what they've been doing wrong and figure out how, in the few remaining months, to convince their neighbors of the impending calamity. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Golter sent the e-mail to about 900 people on the group's mailing list. He passed out 1,000 fliers about the meeting at the Franconia-Springfield Metro station. He arranged to hold the session in a 150-seat auditorium in a Tysons Corner office building. He expected a big turnout.

But on a recent Monday night, Golter finds himself standing before a scant 16 people. Undeterred, he launches into his introduction.

"We started a year and a half ago with all these grand visions," says Golter, 43, an Alexandria resident who works as a financial analyst for the federal government. "We were going to get all of our neighborhoods organized. We were going to work with government officials and schools and churches. But it's pretty late in the day to be successful with that."

Nowadays, Golter says, he gets e-mail from group members saying, "I've given up on my neighbors and friends. They laugh at me. I just want to know how to store beans."

The intimate group gathered in the Tysons building is a cross-section of Northern Virginia: federal workers, computer programmers, church leaders, housewives, a former grass-roots organizer for the firearms lobby. There are eight men and eight women. The men wear short-sleeve dress shirts. Everyone has a note pad and pen. Someone circulates an article from a newspaper food section with recipes featuring Spam, tuna, beans and other commonly stockpiled products.

Before beginning the discussion, Golter pauses to peddle a few cut-rate books. A tome titled "How to 2000," list price $50, now just $10. A Y2K "Investors Survival Guide," marked $25, yours for $10. Proceeds go toward the group's expenses. But there are no takers.

Golter hands the meeting over to Ray Strackbein, one of the group's most active members. Fearing the worst, Ray and his wife, Sally, both of whom work in the technology industry, have stockpiled dozens of cans of tuna, sausages and Spam, not to mention dried beans and Velveeta, in their Fairfax County basement.

Sally has written a cookbook titled "Y2K Kitchen" containing recipes for "Beanie Spammie" and "Bean and Spam Soup" and "Beans Beans Beans Salad." (She hawks the book on the Internet.) The couple have become minor celebrities in the Y2K world: Their preparations have been mentioned by NBC News, Fox News, even Hungarian television.

Armed with a felt-tip pen and a large easel, Strackbein solicits ideas about how to save the organization.

The first to pipe up is a man sitting in the front row, Aldric Saucier, who identifies himself as a physicist and a newcomer to the group. "I've got a problem with this Y2K thing," Saucier says. "I want to see the proof there's going to be a problem."

Strackbein frowns and looks toward Golter. "Falls Church is going to have a tricentennial festival," Golter says, changing the subject. "We should try to have a presence at that event."

The physicist's skepticism goes unaddressed.

A woman who says she is representing Calvary Road Baptist Church in Alexandria explains how the congregation is buying a generator and setting up a small food stockpile. She suggests the group work more actively with churches.

Another woman urges group members to attend a series of town meetings sponsored by Fairfax County's government. She suggests that public officials be prodded with questions: "Where are the food-distribution centers? Where are the shelters?"

And then the physicist tries again. "I don't believe this is a big problem at all," Saucier says. "I think there's a lot of hype here."

This time, his comments aren't ignored. "You're throwing water on our meeting here," retorts a visibly annoyed Strackbein.

"We want to get together in a room of people who don't think we are nuts," adds Gail Fialkow, the group's treasurer.

The physicist's doubts hit group members exactly in their most vulnerable spot. With five months to go, they wonder whether they should spend their precious time trying to convince unbelievers or preaching to the proverbial choir, providing support to people who want to prepare.

Although their proselytizing often is met with outright derision, most members don't want to retreat from that effort. After all, says Golter, the reason they formed a group instead of heading to the hills like many other Y2K pessimists was to help their neighbors.

"We're not individualists," Golter says. "We're not interested in helping people find land in West Virginia. One of the very fundamental goals of our organization is to support the community."

Golter and his fellow members believe their neighbors have received "irresponsibly optimistic" assessments from politicians and the news media about the progress of Y2K repairs at big businesses and government agencies.

The group aims to push its perspective into view with grass-roots techniques: pass out fliers, show up at community events and use the Internet. "We could have a march on the Mall," says Susan Attas, a computer scientist who lives in Vienna.

"Would that be a 10-person march?" Fialkow asks sardonically.

One man suggests creating a "Y2K haunted house" at Halloween to demonstrate the impact of a loss of electricity and other services on one family.

The group then wonders whether its message is too extreme for the masses. Instead of advising people to store several months' worth of food, why not initially suggest stashing away enough for a week, which is what the Red Cross recommends, another man says. Then, after people start stockpiling, members can urge them to increase their cache, he says.

"I think we need to monitor our language," Attas says. "I leave every meeting feeling scared even though I've been preparing." She suggests they describe what they are doing as an "insurance policy." "We have life insurance and health insurance and car insurance. Storing food and water is Y2K insurance."

And, she adds, if nothing happens, "you can eat your insurance premium."

After generating four pages of ideas on the easel, Strackbein injects a dose of reality. "We can't even get a brochure published because the same four people have to do it." Money is also an issue. The group's request for a grant from the Center for Y2K and Society, which has funded other community organizations, recently was turned down.

Eventually, the members decide to focus on a big "preparedness event" in October. It's not clear what the event will entail, but the group will spend the intervening weeks trying to get people to attend.

"It's disappointing and frustrating," Golter said after the meeting. "We had all these great things we wanted to do." But he believes there's still time to make a difference. "Our neighbors may not be listening to us just yet. But we're not giving up on them."

(c) 1999 The Washington Post Company

-- Alexi (Alexi@not-in-the-dark.com), August 04, 1999

Answers

Folks, this has been my experience exactly with our local group.

I've given up. If the majority are correct, well, I've *over reacted* once or twice before. My family and such will give me a good ribbing and life will go on.

If we are correct, things could become a shambles. There is rarely anything that a majority dislikes more than a few "voices in the wilderness" who turn out to be right.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 04, 1999.


We are in the midst of a suspension of our ability as a people to recognize and prepare for the coming storms. This is not a situation which can be explained by sociological concepts. The closest we can come to this is what is described in the Bible as being 'blinded' or 'put to sleep' by God for the purpose of ensuring our internment in the divinely appointed and prepared judgements.

These judgements are intended as a warning and to save us not to destroy us. There are times when God will allow hardships to fall because this is the only way that we will turn from our rebellion. Jesus said 'It is better for a man that he lose his hand..than to be damned having his hand'. There are times which God choses which are like having a hand cut off but the intent is like that of a surgeon who must remove a gangrenous limb to save the patient.

It seems that at this time we are under a divine anesthesia and are soon to be operated upon for our benefit (though most will never understand it that way).

If the present situation seems unreal then this is one explaination to think about. Above all do not doubt your convictions. Do not succumb to sleep. Make sure you are in such a situation that when the mass of people awaken and begin to thrash about in pain you are not inadvertantly clocked.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), August 04, 1999.


Our opportunity to lesson the impact of Y2K will be lost because a lot of people aren't willing to look at what is happening. Another thread had a pointer to the statement by then US Dept. of State (July 22, in PDF format). Just one statement:

"Our assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level..."

Much of our frustration is continually asking: "What part of EVERY don't you understand?"

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 04, 1999.


Its probably just as well that these metropolitan Y2K preparation efforts have fallen buy the wayside for lack of interest. You cannot prepare for other than very moderate level Y2K problems in, or near, a major city such as Washington, D.C. What good will stored food and water do you if martial law is declared and you are forced to move to a shelter? How can you live in a city or suburb that has had a failure of its municipal sewage system?

All in all, looks like a good article, prominently on Page One of D.C.'s major newspaper. Be interesting to see what the reaction there is. (Probably a Big Yawn.)

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), August 04, 1999.

Very good post/story --- thanks Alexi.

Definitely: People are "betting the farm" (without even giving it rational thought) that Y2K is going to be a "non-event". What a disaster waiting to happen! I suppose theres a small chance things will "work out", but people are placing their futures on that small chance.

" ... dozens of cans of tuna ..." doesn't exactly sound "on the fringe" ! At least not on this forum.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 04, 1999.



My DWGI girlfriend ask me everyday when I mention y2k what happens if I am wrong. I inform her that I will eat crow or alot of tuna and rice next year and go on with my life. If I am right, I hope it saves her life. She said you keep on preparing just don't mention it to me. Does anybody else have this situation?

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), August 04, 1999.

God has not induced this stupor! Don't blame the sheeple's sleep on God. They have turned *away* from the Divine Force, which is ever-alert and urges His Creation to be on the watch. Clue: are more people following the 10 Commandments, or breaking them?

-- Lies lies lies (no@more.truth), August 04, 1999.

Here is the correct link.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), August 04, 1999.

There is no way they are going to move millions of city dwellers into shelters. No way. Further, as someone noted, there are limted numbers of guardsmen (national Guard) divide that number by the number of the cities and, at best, you have a few extra bodies along with police to prevent the worst of looting, etc. That's it.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 04, 1999.

The masses ARE asleep and until the popular media (TV) arouses them most people will not prepare. I too had hoped to be able to get a group of about 20 immediate neighbors to prepare and be meeting regularly by this time. I had two meetings very early this year when there was some interest, and a few are making some preperations.

For now, I have decided to simply make my own preperations keeping in mind that if things go bad I will try to assist in organizing these same people at a much later date than I had hoped. If no problems, I am simply that nutty guy and will make large donations of items to charitable organizations. TV will be the spark that ignites the fire. Once I start getting calls from people, I will know the time is right.

It is interesting to observe peoples reactions to impending disaster. In 1997 we had record snowfall (3 times normal) and a record flood was predicted. LOTS of time to prepare and LOTS of warning from waether service, national flood insurance, etc. Only 1000 flood protection policies (at a cost of about $250 each) were in force when we had the largest flood and evacuation in the history of the US. 50,000 people were evacuated from our city and over 18,000 properties were damaged or destroyed. Many people were out of their homes for more than 3 weeks (no water, sewer, electricity, or gas), including myself. I would have thought with this recent experience people here would be more willing to prepare, but denial and inertia are VERY powerfull forces to overcome.

Good luck, wherever you are.

-- Kevin Lemke (klemke@undalumni.org), August 04, 1999.



I smiled when I read this this morning. The Washington Post has not been able to bill their customers due to computer problems. Maybe it is fixed now, but I have not received my yearly bill which I usually have by now.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 04, 1999.

Mike,

I didn't realize that, no wonder they got our bill sckrewed up and I haven't seen a bill since.

I likewise smiled as well.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), August 04, 1999.


This is a front page story. Buried in the same edition, on page E3, is this story:

Power Industry Says It Isn't Y2K-Worried (Peter Behr, Washington Post)

By Peter Behr Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, August 4, 1999; Page E03

The nation's electric power industry said yesterday that it has fixed year 2000 computer problems in 99 percent of critical generating systems and that the plants already fixed could supply enough power to meet expected electricity demand in North America when the new year begins.

"If New Year's Day 2000 was tomorrow, we believe the lights would remain on," said Michehl R. Gent, president of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), an industry group that is coordinating Y2K electric power remedies.

Potomac Electric Power Co. and Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. both said they were ready for the year 2000.

Virginia Power,, however, did not report itself fully prepared for the changeover. A spokesman said three of the company's 84 power plants are not ready but will be by this fall, when the plants are taken out of operation for routine maintenance. The company will not need power from the three plants to cover demand in January, the spokesman said.

Nationwide, 63 of 251 major power-generating utilities had at least one system that had not been tested or fixed as of June 30, NERC reported. Some utilities have delayed Y2K repairs because of the heavy electrical demand during this summer's heat wave.

Most systems at the 63 utilities have been checked and are ready for the year changeover, Gent said. The remaining repairs are designated as not critical because the demand for electricity next New Year's Day will be much less than the system's capacity, Gent said.

In addition, 8 percent of public power-distribution systems and 13 percent of electric power cooperatives have not completed year 2000 remedies. But virtually all investor-owned utilities, which supply three-quarters of the nation's electricity, report they have fixed the problems. John A. Koskinen, head of the Clinton administration's year 2000 task force, said utilities with remaining problems must not let repairs slip late into the year, when time will be running short. The fixes are required because many older computer systems were not designed to distinguish between the years 1900 and 2000 and could break down when the new year begins.

Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said his department will make a small number of spot audits to test utility company preparations.

About one-quarter of power companies have performed internal audits of their year 2000 readiness, and the same percentage have hired outside contractors to check their preparations, said NERC year 2000 coordinator Gerry Cauley.

NERC also reported that 68 of the nation's 103 nuclear power reactors have reported completing year 2000 actions. Of the remaining 35, two- thirds require repairs to reactor systems.

Decommissioned nuclear plants will not be brought on line, and scheduled plant retirements will not be delayed to supply more power for the year 2000 changeover, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The power industry's Achilles' heel is the telephone network that ties generators to distribution systems and controls the transmission of electric power from one region of the country to another, officials said. A year 2000 failure of phone communications could cripple power systems, and utilities plan to have backup satellite or radio links in place and tested.

The next major test of power systems and backup communications networks will occur Sept. 8 and 9.

) Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company --------------------------------------------

Wwhy wasn't this the story on the front page?



-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 04, 1999.


I have always had an innate faith that there is intelligence underlying the unfolding of events. If you reference a Biblical perspective on disasters, they are usually prefaced by a warning perceived by a few (Lott, Noah.)

Some of us have been recipients of an urge to prepare. (To me, it hit hard like the message to Richard Dryfuss in "Close Encounters," so compellimg that the doubts of others didn't matter.)

But things may unfold differently than expected. It is obvious that at this late point in time and with the JIT system, attempts to organize large communities and get others to prepare may have minimal results for the effort. Those of us who have completed preparations, might have to think beyond passing on to others how to pack bean buckets with dry ice to becoming repositories of knowledge on pre-technological skills and systems.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 04, 1999.


I live in Northern Virginia and have not had much success in awakening friends, neighbors, and church folk to the need to prepare. However, I wish to thank and commend the many, many people out there whose information has helped others like me to become GI and learn how to become prepared. The ripple effect is still occurring and we are trying to help others. I just posted a response below on what the true meaning of survival of the fittest may be.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), August 04, 1999.


My sister lives in Portland, Oregon. There were plans to organize neighborhoods into y2k readiness groups made by Mayor Vera Katz a couple or three months back. I think the proposal was too radical for too many people to accept, but the city council has at least appointed a y2k committee to study the problem. They have issued a report, which I was only able to skim while in Portland last time, but it does look SOMEWHAT like they are addressing some issues.

One good thing there, in Portland: they confirm my assumption that there will be water delivered to almost everyone in the city, because their water supply, the upper Bull Run River watershed, is much higher than most of Portland. They are not guaranteeing that it will be potable, however, if the power goes out. At least they acknowledge that loss of power is a possibility.

Grants Pass, Oregon is allegedly bringing in some "railroad car sized" generators as backup power to run the sewer treatment plant, but the Portland y2k committee indcates that the amount of power required for a city the size of Portland is too overwhelming for them to even consider using backup generators.

Wish I could give you some verification on this.

Anyone here from Portland who can give us their input, or a site to look at?

Thanks,

JOJ

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 04, 1999.


Elaine, Thanks for the kind words. We are trying very hard but not making much progress with NOVA Y2K and the masses. I plan to keep working at it. I think you are right, we may never know the extent of the good we are actually doing! Maybe an article like this can help - I've had a number of calls today from people asking if I was the one quoted in the article and what they should do. It seems that if its front page, folks read it. Come by and visit us at a NOVA Y2K meeting sometime!

-- Gail (fialkow@erols.com), August 04, 1999.

Maybe we can fit all of these mind-numbed sheep into Klinton's bunker that they are readying. They just can't or won't see the writing on the wall.

I keep hearing how people will fix and failure and the like. How can the totally unprepared be expect to do anything except be a burden on a social structure which will be in chaos?

We cannot save people that will not take responsiblity for their own survival. Pure and simple. These and other Y2K groups are doing a great service and can do only so much without the power of the media.

By the way, Mr. Richardson of DOE is either lying or doesn't understand the systemic nature of this problem in proclaiming such grid optimism. When I read these PR statements, anger cascades throughout my body like bankruptcies and social breakdowns will cascade throughout the world soon.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), August 04, 1999.


This doesn't sound like an article about complacency, so much as an article about a dying movement. A few committed activists are trying desperately to get the word out, while older members are leaving in droves and no new recruits are showing up. Skeptical questions are either ignored or put down -- they aren't the right practiced responses from the hardcore congregation. It's so very hard to bring new blood into the church because history has not seen fit to generate the big-screen celebrity failures necessary to keep the movement growing instead of evaporating.

And the media are not cooperating. They're tired of publishing the same unrequited warnings -- that's old news, and they've done that. Now what's happened lately? And all that's happened lately is an avalanche of press releases about successful remediaton, completed tasks, tests all being passed with flying colors. The good news may not be comprehensive, but at least it's happening. The bad news continues to take the form of warnings, possibilities, hypothetical scenarios. The media focus on what happens, not on what *might* happen. That's been covered.

There isn't even any growing public concern to report about. The y2k activists are now small splinter factions like the survivalists in the hills or Greenpeace. Back pages filler stuff.

So this story reads like a requiem for something that might have happened, got started, then fizzled. Yes, some "other" specialists think we'll have "some" problems next January which "possibly" could affect the flow of goods and services. Like, who knows, someone should probably file this, and check back in 6 months to see if anything really happened after all.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 04, 1999.


Flint:

The skeptic was not ignored. He was given a considerable amount of one -on-one time later. The problem was that the agenda of the meeting was to be a brainstorming session about the focus and direction of the group. We actually did get some good ideas and some committments from members to participate in activities.

We encourage new members to attend an introduction to Y2K session before coming to the monthly meetings. Anyway, he actually did not turn out to be a skeptic. He just wanted our literature to be more scientific.

-- Sally Strackbein (sally@y2kkitchen.com), August 04, 1999.


Sally:

Yes, but this wasn't presented in the article. Telling me more details more accurately doesn't change what was published, sadly. As I read what was written, I got this picture of a large group of "night will last forever people" fading away as the sun comes up, leaving a small committed group convinced it's a false dawn, and unable or unwilling to deal effectively with those who say "look - sun!"

To awaken people, we need some real, bonafide alarms. So far, we haven't had any. It seems more and more likely that IF we ever get some, it will be too late.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 04, 1999.


JOJ jumpoffjoe, we're currently near Portland, and are on Mayor Vera Katz's Y2K Council. We were posting updates but there hasn't been interest. zzzzzzzzz it's in the archives zzzzzzzz

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 04, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ