See Scary Gary's site today 08/02/1999. A good read for those that care.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), August 02, 1999

Answers

Link to GN article: http://garynorth.com/y 2k/detail_.cfm/5642

Direct link: http://www.gold- eagle.com/editorials_99/rc062199.html

Editorial from June 21, 1999 by "R.C."

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), August 02, 1999.

Yes, that was an amplification of what RC posted here a while ago. I've had email chats with two TB2K posters with experience in the Petrochem industry.

One was an Oil Analyst, one was a Professional Engineer who has worked in/on Petrochem plants.

The last one was a Petroleum Engineer who, frankly, I pulled out of a resume database at random and sent an email asking his opinion.

All three backed up RC's view........

Add to that the growing "consensus that seems to be heard more and more from government, military, and many industry "insiders" to expect 2-4 weeks of outages in January.

Do you have a horse?

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 02, 1999.

Horse too big a target. Get those legs in shape. Many walking/running/hiking shoes are imported. Stock up now while you can!

-- h (h@h.h), August 02, 1999.

Yeah but if there is an oil shortage then how are they going to drive all those White UN trucks around and oppress you?

(Doomer Disconnect)

-- (x@xx@xxx.xxxx), August 02, 1999.

Yes, RC posted this awhile ago and there was a very long and robust discussion. Is there anything new in this? It looks pretty much the same. Would be good to get any "new" insights or feedback from those in the industry or with contacts in the industry. contact information preferred.....

I read somewher the US govt has, is it 30 days or 3 months, of strategic oil reserves??? Does that help the scenario, or just prolong the agong?????

-- Walter Skold (wsvnsk2@juno.com), August 02, 1999.

Response to Walter Skold who wrote:

"I read somewher the US govt has, is it 30 days or 3 months, of strategic oil reserves??? Does that help the scenario, or just prolong the agong?????"

Actually, Walter, you add up all the oil reserves in the country, all the trains, all the refineries, all the oil wells, all the refined product in the country and then you have the fed gov inventory of reserves. Including your car, the gas in it, your oil furnace, the house it sits in, and the oil tank out back.

You don't have to take my word for it, just read the EO's.

-- Tom Beckner (tbeckner@xout.erols.com), August 02, 1999.

Da wittle white twucks will wrun on da fedirail rezerbs. Did I do good huh? Huh?

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), August 02, 1999.

Actually, DA WITTLE WHITE TWUCKS have an alternate fuel capability, they simply stuff in a couple of Pollyrebuttills and run off the hot air!

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), August 02, 1999.

(Posting from my brother's house in Ontario)

Acute fuel shortages would make it extremely difficult for a great many people to get to work. We live in a suburb of Atlanta. Downtown Atlanta is 17 miles away by the most direct route. Thousands of people live even further out and drive in to Atlanta (and home again) every working day. The nearest MARTA (light rail transit) station is 6 miles away from us by road. The nearest bus stop is 2 miles away.

No work, no wages. State unemployment compensation reserves couldn't possibly cope. Not that there would be much available in the stores anyway.

Hmmmm....

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), August 02, 1999.

Fossil fuel and electricity are dependent upon each other. RC made that point brilliantly. What about all of those back up generators? How many embedded systems exist in both industries? The high number of explosions this year ALONE should make one pause, and wonder. The world as we've known it will cease and come to a grinding halt, if one of these two industries where to fail, because it would mean the death of the other. Where is the natural gas industry? Why have they been virtually silent and neglected by the media? Another embedded systems nightmare.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 03, 1999.

Can you doomers not get a bit of a grip at least on reality.......

Certainly there will be isolated incidents to deal with in this industry....as there usually are in complex systems.......

However, the oil industry in general are way ahead on the curve and Y2K remediation has gone very well......

The experts in embedded systems in this field are calm about the situation and have it well in hand..........

Billions of dollars in expansions are currently being spent in the oil industry here and billions more planned to be invested in the next few years as well.......

This disaster mindset that some of you folks are propogating ends with you....the real experts on the job are continuing with business as usual......

I'm beginning to question what the motives are of the small, yet extreme group of people that seem hell-bent on spreading rumors such as 'It's all going to crash.....we're doomed'..........

That group of people either have no understanding of the processes of the oil industry, or don't really want to understand.....their constant cry of "It can't be fixed" is getting tiresome indeed.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 03, 1999.

However, the oil industry in general are way ahead on the curve and Y2K remediation has gone very well......

URLs, please. Thanks.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 03, 1999.

Tom - with respect to MARTA (the Atlanta subway), aren't you assuming rather optimistically that MARTA itself is working? That downtown Atlanta will be able itself to function? Or to be fundementaly safe to function inside of? (Water, power, telephones, police, fire, taxes, city permits, garbage collection, taxes, city salaries, city records and courts - no Atlanta department or service is complete yet.

Most have no published schedule to complete before January, nor are any contingency plans published yet. (At least Washington DC has published plans to to provide contingency services - none of these contingencies are done yet, but they are at least being discussed and some are even funded. Most systems at the Atlanta airport are unfinished (a few are done) and no systems at the airport have developed, installed (or tested) their contingency plans yet.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), August 03, 1999.

Craig:

Darn, now the Senate Committee is Doomer to a man. I'm real sure that their report showed Oil in general as both behind and as an area of significant concern.

I would much rather everyone had included this in routine maintenance over the last 30 years. But, I procrastinate too.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 03, 1999.

Please get your facts straight, Craig, before leaping to unrealistic conclusions. I know how painful the potential outcome is, but do not dismiss the plethora of warning signs. If you are new to the study of Y2K, by all means excuse my implication that you have your head buried in the sand, up to your armpits. Otherwise, how did you manage to miss Chevron's announced fix on failure plan? Have you read any Senate testimony? Would you please explain the inordinate number of explosions suffered in this industry, in the last 8 months? Why is our government stockpiling fuel? Venezuela announced they are Y2K toast. They fully anticipate it will 'grip their grid'. Have you any idea the amount of oil we import from them? The CIA has rather grave concerns about our other foreign suppliers as well. Did you READ the article in question? I would highly recommend you do, most especially if you have ANYONE relying upon you for ANYHTING. Please be a bit more responsible, and a little less hysterical. I know *I'm* certainly not flailing about, we took measures to do without either industry, last year. I don't believe there is one single person participating on this forum, who promotes panic in any way. We DO realisticly anticipate it will occur. This will happen as a result of people just like you who have refused to acknowledge the facts available. Unprepared people WILL panic. If you are so concerned about this occuring, perhaps you would care to join our effort to make people aware and encourage them to act and prepare responsibly.

You are more than welcome to begin doing this, and if you reject this idea, perhaps you should move along to a forum that serves people more of your particular philosophy.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 03, 1999.