Y2K for Newcomers - Part II

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Here are the threads that werent included in the first compilation called Y2K for Newcomers. The url for the first part is:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0015dW

Y2K for Newcomers

If the hotlinks do not work you can simply copy/paste the url to go to the thread. Along with the url and link, I have also included the posts that started each thread.

1 New to Y2K? Make up your own mind about it.

The url is: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0014Bo

New to Y2K? Make up your own mind about it

More and more people are beginning to seriously look at Y2K everyday. Does this include you? Most likely, you already realize that there are no shortages of opinions regarding Y2K. They also vary widely. Different experts do not agree, not unlike anything else in life. Ever see a police report with multiple witnesses? Ten people see the same thing, yet there may end up being eleven different opinions (one changes their mind).

So how do you go about formulating opinions about Y2K for yourself? Look into it and keep at it until you come to some conclusions. Make up your own mind. If you are lucky enough to have common sense, then use it. The Internet will be your main source for information, both bad and good. Think about what you read and verify what you can. Dont blindly accept anyones opinion, including that family member who works with computers. Question everything. Think. If you do this, at least you will be able to know why you hold the opinions that you do, and subsequently why you are taking the actions that you think make sense.

The Y2K scene changes daily. Part of formulating your opinions is the acceptance that they arent cast in concrete. Stay tuned to Y2K events and modify your opinions and actions accordingly, as the scene changes and as more information becomes available. It is your responsibility to make up your own mind. Do it. Never stop questioning and thinking. Since you will have to live with your decision, the least you should do is choose to make it your own decision.

Its your life. Its your choice. Choose well.

2 New to Y2K? Dealing with uncertainty

The url is: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0011SL

New to Y2K? Dealing with uncertainty

An important part of Y2K preparation is dealing with uncertainty. We do not like uncertainty. Human Nature. Yet we live our lives going from uncertainty to uncertainty. Keys in dealing with uncertainty are flexibility and adaptability. It is important to be able to respond well to changes since, ironically, it is change itself that remains certain. It always has been, and always will be. Life is not static, with or without Y2K.

How can we best deal with uncertainty? First, try to accept uncertainty, hard as it may be to do this. Realize that it is possible to identify ahead of time, some, but not all, of the different changes we may be faced with, by thinking, using our imagination, and visualizing various potential outcomes. This costs nothing but thinking time, which will be well spent if you can identify some possible things to prepare for that you hadnt previously considered, and this will increase your flexibility and adaptability.

It is prudent to think through what to do should a part of your Y2K plan need to change. Do this ahead of time by playing what if and prepare your response depending on how likely you think the outcome is. Ask yourself not only about the probability of a given outcome, but also about the associated risks and stakes involved. This will lead you to becoming more flexible, and better able to adapt to changing situations.

Prepare for uncertainty as best you can, according to your expectations and means. Stay tuned with what is happening on the Y2K front and adjust accordingly. Think through various what if outcomes. An unexpected situation wont be unexpected anymore if you have thought about it ahead of time. A little thought now can go a long way later.

3 New to Y2K? Leaders and followers  which are you?

The url is: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0010YL

New to Y2K? Leaders and followers  which are you?

You may feel that being relatively new to Y2K that you do not know enough to speak with others about the subject. Regardless of if this the case, there will come a time, sooner rather than later, when you will make a decision  perhaps without even knowing you are making it. The decision of being a Y2K leader or not. It is no secret that there has been and continues to be a Y2K leadership vacuum. This is worldwide. What progress there has been in getting the Y2K word out has basically been at the grass roots level; ordinary folks that are concerned enough to talk with neighbors, family members, their church and community groups. If you have done any or all of this, then I am talking about you. Yes, you. Perhaps you have not ever previously considered yourself to be a leader. Before Y2K, I certainly never did.

For me things changed after seeing that Y2K will usher in a period of increasing personal responsibility, one that for some Y2K aware folks includes the responsibilities of leadership, especially at the local level. Others have either decided to not warn people, or have given up trying. Still others are leaders and dont know it yet  they will emerge given the right circumstances, probably much to their own surprise. It is your choice. I will state here that my views are in the minority, that most do not feel compelled to lead, or if they did at one time, they have since stopped. Being a Y2K leader isnt easy. You will most likely be laughed at and dismissed. You will pay a price for your attempts. Is there also a price to be paid for your silence and decision to not try, or to give up? And who will pay that price?

This post is to ask you to consider being a Y2K leader. Help yourself. Help others. Show that you care by setting an example. Leadership is in short supply. Dont look to the government to lead. Look to yourself. Take responsibility. We are the leaders, be default. There are no others. If we do not do it, as Y2K aware folks, then it wont get done. There will be less Y2K aware folks. There will be less people prepared for the uncertainties that we all face. As a result, there will be a more severe Y2K impact for those that did not hear the call, due to the call not being issued or not being taken seriously. These are two entirely different cases. If others hear but do not listen to your Y2K call, you are blameless  you have done what you could. But not giving others even a chance to hear about the potential Y2K problems is quite another matter. If you did not know anything about Y2K but a familiy member or friend did know, would you want them to tell you?

Most people are followers, not leaders. This has always been the case. Human Nature. Which are you? If not you, then who? If not now, then when?

4 Newbies: Preparation can be a cure for worry

The url is: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000S95

Newbies: Preparation can be a cure for worry

Y2K is quite overwhelming a subject, especially for newbies who are trying to sort it all out for themselves. One of the most often heard reactions is frustration with the unknown, which causes worry, and sometimes inaction. Perhaps the best cure for worry is knowledge: a combination of thought, education and then preparation based on that knowledge.

After taking Y2K seriously enough to really look into it, the question "what should I do" soon follows. One answer is to keep looking into the various aspects of Y2K until you can understand it as a threat. Once you do, a plan of preparation can be made. Each person will need to prepare according to their means as well as their expectation of what the impact will be, based on the perceived threats identified. People have a great deal in common as far as what threats they face from Y2K. If you can, find others who are like-minded in your community. This greatly reduces worry too, since you realize that you are not so alone, and also there are others who you may rely on, and vice versa, when crunch time comes. Just knowing that some folks close to you are getting ready can take a load off your mind.

As you prepare against each potential individual Y2K threat, you will become more confident in your ability to meet that particular challenge, and worry decreases. Preparation is the cure for what ails you in that it not only helps you meet the problem head-on, it also allows you a sense of accomplishment. It is hard work, and so will help focus your mind off of worrying and on to solving. Good all the way around. Worry may not go away completely, but it should be reduced a lot - perhaps in direct correlation to the amount of successful preparation you and others near you actually do.

So take it one step at a time. If you think you will have a potential water problem, or food problem, or whatever, solve them by learning how to prepare, and then do it. It is a wonderful feeling to be able to look in the mirror and say "I solved this problem". Life is full of choices. You can worry, or you can solve. Worrying may seem like the easy way out, but the doors of the room may all be locked when you are ready to go. Take what appears now to be the harder way - learn and prepare - make it easier for yourself and others later. Have you ever regretted solving a problem?

Do it now. Start solving. And remember; preparation itself can be a cure for worry.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), July 31, 1999

Answers

The links do not work so if you want to go to the thread just use the url.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), July 31, 1999.

Hello, Rob, my friend!! :-) The reason your links don't work: apparently you are writing this in Word (or something similar) and then pasting it here. When you do, your quotation marks ( " ) are showing up as little rectangular blocks. (The same thing happened to De on the prep forum.) The solution is to hand type in your quotation marks after you have pasted the article here, just before you hit submit.

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 31, 1999.

THANKS GAYLA!!!!!!! Yes, I do use WORD sometimes for my longer posts, including this one. Sometimes the links work!?!? Now at least I know what to double check just to be sure. I will re-post the links for this thread when I have more time. Off to a party soon for the kids... back tonight maybe. BFN, Rob. and thanks, really!

Gang: I have a question. Why is it that there seems to be so little interest in the newbies generally, and helping those newbies that find there way here? Someone just started a thread to see if there are even any newbies around, and there are. It has long been my opinion that there are more and more folks new to Y2K everyday coming here. Some may stay. So why so little interest? Is it just my percpetion, am I wrong about this?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), July 31, 1999.


Rob, I love your posts! I may not be totally new but I find them very comforting and you seem to think along the same lines that I do. I hope you continue to post such well written inspiration. I too think that there are more and more newcomers. Whether they completely make themselves known or not... Take care..Shellie

-- shellie (shellie01@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Great job Rob!

To address your questions:

"Why is it that there seems to be so little interest in the newbies generally, and helping those newbies that find there way here?"

There is interest in helping newbies. Note Stan's detailed prep piece. Also Brian's masterful prep archive. The perceived lack of interest may be due, in part, to a lack of newbies speaking out. "Hi, I'm new to the forum, just found out this Y2K problem is more involved than I previous thought," etc.

I believe some newbies stop by, read a few threads loaded with venomous personal attacks, & hit the ground running. This is why I try to get these "intense individuals" (how's that for diplomacy) to back off a bit - to no avail. Chuck, Unc, Flint, Decker & a few others attempt to make the peace, but it just never seems to sink in.

Also, Y2K is just so daunting! It took me three or four months of lurking here before I dared post. That was when there wasn't more than a dozen new threads each day. This forum moves at a pace far, far greater today. A newbie couldn't possibly digest more than a few threads without taking Dramamine!

Bottom line - I jump in when I read a newbie question. Several others do as well. Kevin & Diane have helpful links seemingly at their fingertips. The Prep Forum is likewise a tremendous resource.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), July 31, 1999.



What happened to Bingo1? She seems to have slipped into the polly camp, recently relating to Decker and Flint. That's fine, but leaves me curious as to why. The face-to-face meeting with Decker tipped Bingo1 over, apparently. Stan too. What all was the straw camel?

-- lurker (not@many.switches), July 31, 1999.

Sorry to sidetrack your thread Rob, but...

Lurker,

I, a male of the species, am as I've always been - one who constantly re-evaluates my opinions. It seems I was born with the word "why" on my lips. Even my principles, those tenets which guide me in my interactions with the world, are not set in stone.

I don't buy into labelling people, though I take no offense at your suggestion I've "slipped into the polly camp". My preps are pretty extensive when measured against anyone else I know personally. I offer my assistance to people regularly: How to prep. Why prep? How to do research. Few take me up on the offer. Even today I spoke with a subordinate of my wife's regarding basics such as water storage. I suggested we sit down for an evening to go over areas of concern. Will she follow up? Based on my experience, no.

I back Flint for several reasons. One, he works very hard to get his points across. Two, he's a combination of a Timex watch & the Energizer bunny. Milne & Co. verbally split his head wide-open time & again, yet Flint is hardly fazed. He wipes away the e-blood from his eyes & continues pounding away at his keyboard. Simply amazing!

I do not always agree with Flint. Sometimes I don't understand his points. That's irrelevant. There's a world of difference between supporting someone's right to reasoned expression & supporting the content within said expression.

Likewise, I back Decker though we are quite different in our outlooks with regards to Y2K. I had a few doubts about Ken Decker until I met him. He showed courage in coming to meet anonymous internet posters on ground foreign to him, especially in light of the voracious personal attacks he had endured for two solid months. His sense of honor was proven by driving several hours to the gathering though he was obviously quite ill. And his knowledge of Monty Python skits & dialogue impressed me to no end!

I support these two fellows because it is my nature to stick up for anyone who is reasonable & is repeatedly subjected to abuse while they exhibit restraint from striking back at the transgressor(s).

As for Stan, I'm fortunate to have had the opporunity to get to know him pretty well. He is a good soul. And much more, though I wouldn't want to embarrass him by enumerating those qualities here.

Feel free to send me an e-mail if you would like Lurker.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), July 31, 1999.


Mr. Bingo, nice answer, you sound like underdog champion, the reasonableness attracts you. A while ago they were not so hardly fazed, but more civility recently. What matters now is that you are prepared to your satisfaction and that you still are willing to talk to newbies. You are an unusual species here, maybe middle of the road where most are pushing to the edges. Where would you place yourself?

-- lurker (not@many.switches), July 31, 1999.

"You are an unusual species here, maybe middle of the road" --Lurker

Not true at all, lurker. I think you will find most of us here are middle of the road. The problem as I see it, is that the ones closest to the "edge" are also the LOUDEST! They keep spouting the same "mantra" over and over. It is disappointing for the rest of us to be categorized in the same "league."

I believe the greatest difficulties we will face next year in the U.S. will be economic ones. There IS a slight chance for terrorism from home or abroad, however. The thing I have a hard time "predicting" is how much the other unprepared nations will impact us. That is the difficult part for me, because we import SO much! What percentage of oil, that we are unable to get, will it take to send us into a depression? (Loss of jobs, etc.) The shortage in the 70's was only a disruption of 5%. Doesn't sound good!

What are YOUR thoughts Lurker?

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 31, 1999.


As I prefer Rob's excellent thread to be steered back on topic, please e-mail me if you wish to continue this discussion.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), July 31, 1999.



shellie and bingo1: Thanks to both of you for the posts.

Gang: Here is another newbie series thread that I forgot to include. I think this is the last one. It managed to generate some interesting discussion. The post which started the thread is copied below. Anyway, hope you find it worth a look.

5 Preparing for any uncertainty, including Y2K, is not about being optimistic or pessimistic. It is about Prudence.

The url is: http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch- msg.tcl?msg_id=000mts

Pessimism and Prudence

Jim Lord once was asked if he was optimistic or pessimistic about Y2K. While I do not remember his exact wording, he responded that he was neither - that Y2K is not about optimism or pessimism. It's about prudence. He then gave an example similar to the following: I have insurance for my house. Does this mean that I am a pessimist? No. Am I expecting it to burn down? No. It is a matter of prudence. The insurance is there in case it is needed. I believe his answer was instructive. Making prudent preparations in the face of uncertainty is common sense, isn't it?

How about you? Do you have insurance against uncertainty: House insurance? Car insurance? Life insurance? Y2K insurance?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), August 01, 1999.


The above hotlink Pessimism and Prudence works. Thanks again Gayla.

Here are the links for the other threads:

Y2K for Newcomers

New to Y2K? Make up your own mind about it.

New to Y2K? Dealing with uncertainty

New to Y2K? Leaders and followers  which are you? Newbies: Preparation can be a cure for worry

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), August 01, 1999.


:-) :-) :-) :-)

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 01, 1999.

To the top, per Rob's request :-)

-- Tricia the Canuck (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), August 23, 1999.

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