Earlier this spring, did Gartner present a bunch of fancy charts to Congress showing a spike in Y2K failures this summer? Personally, I have seen no failures. Gartner appears to have deemphasized y2k on its homepage, but there again my memory may be disserving me.

If you've read the thread below about Gartner, you can see that Gartner's advice to business now is "Don't stockpile." Oh, yeah, it's much more artfully phrased, (with footnotes!) but that's the blaring message.

Well, this little saga is nothing if not complex. These nuances do add to the entertainment value.

My bottom line: Gartner and de Jager can't unring the bell. But if they've fooled me, they have, in the process, fooled people a lot smarter than I am. No big deal.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), July 30, 1999

Answers

However they have not fooled the businesses that are stockpiling. With their bottom line at stake these companies, once awakened, will do whatever they believe is necessary to survive.

I keep watching these debt offerings of such huge proportions and I know that it is companies stockpiling cash.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), July 30, 1999.

I believe you are right Gartner and de Jager have softened their position on Y2K while Koskinen has hardened. As rollover approaches I think the powers that be are seeing that: BITR < Y2K < 10. By that I mean enough is now known that Y2k may be in the middle say a 4- 7 with some areas of the USA and some countries of the world harder hit than others.

My read of the Gartner article you posted is a variation on Koskinen's argument that: If you can have the full impact of Y2K whatever Y2K turns out to be OR you can have Y2K plus a full blown panic; it is logical to devote whatever resources are available to avert the panic. I see this as getting one of the best PR firms to play the violin music while more corporate good news generates more quarters of stable earnings so that more Y2K fixes or continuity contingencies can be put in place.

I see gartner's article as similar to the original justification for JIT inventory control. Now that JIT is the norm, there would be a very high price to restock for Just in Case by everyone because the Just in Case scenarios are widely varying in scope and the supply lines probably cannot support a reversal of years of JIT.

So, some will prepare and thrive; most will muddle through sime how by adapting as best they can to the actual impacts as they experience them and some unfortunately will fail. I think this is true for both corporations, governements, and individuals.

I am frustrated that more are not adequately preparing. Thank you for the posts.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 30, 1999.

No matter what happens, we Cascadians are grateful for Y2K's immovable deadline prodding us to finish earthquake/anything preps. We're not strangers to procrastination so this jolt to finally give in and buy what we know we need will prove providential in the long run. Hopefully it will just mean we'll have fantastic camping trips in the Cascades & Coastals for many summers to come ... *fingers crossed*

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 30, 1999.

Mike,

I agree recent debt offerings have been astronomical. for example Ford Motor. I recall reading that many are upping their 3 rd qtr bond offering because of the expectation that the smart money may sit on the sidelines for the 4th qtr debt auctions. If true, this will severly impact the credit card companies like Visa and Master Card that auction their outstanding balances as fixed income investments quarterly. Kind of plays into the "Cash will be King" scenario doesn't it.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 30, 1999.

Bill P, The more PR Firms I hear of that are involved, the more convinced I am that we have chosen the right path - to prepare, to prepare, to prepare!

-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), July 30, 1999.

Y2K is on the way

Without delay nor time to play;

Those who do prepare now must

While others wait-- they will be dust.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 30, 1999.

Mike and Bill, There is no doubt in my mind that business is slamming nine months of debt issuance into the second quarter precisely because of y2k. We're riding the wave as we speak.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), July 30, 1999.

On February 16, 1999 I wrote this about the Gartner Group:

"I'm going to go on record and predict that the next Gartner Group report on world y2k status will show Japan moving up from level III (50% failure) to level II - one step below the U.S. (and closing fast)."

[Note: They did change Japan's status as predicted]

"I also believe the levels or categories will be redefined to smaller percentages of potential failure to produce or distribute. For example, Level I may be reduced from 15% to 8-10%, Level II reduced from 33% to 20-25%, Level III reduced from 50% to 33% and so on. They will probably cite accelerated awareness, improved remediation methodologies, increased coordination and information sharing and better reporting."

[Note: They no longer use this criteria.]

"The report will also include the always important caveat that continuing effort must be maintained and as we countdown to the end of the year, it will be vitally important for the U.S. government to praise the efforts of the Gartner Group and endorse their findings so more companies will BUY THEIR REPORTS!

I can hear Members of Congress now: 'Thank you for providing this important information that all American families need to know and I think we need more of these reports as we get closer to the end of the millennium. It's important to keep the American families informed. Ahhhh did you TV folks in the back get that or do you want me to do another take?'

If my prediction comes true, will that be good news or bad news? I say it's bad news. It will show that the Gartner Group couldn't forecast rain in a thunderstorm. It will mean that things may be better than they have projected or worse than they have projected. It means they don't know anything more than you or I. It would mean that the are an outstanding organization...at selling reports and themselves."

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), July 31, 1999.

To Puddintame The Gartner Group did show a chart in a hearing by Senator Bob Bennett which showed computer failures taking off this summer and peaking around January 1 2000 and declining throughout the Year 2000.A rare bit of honesty for a group that nowadays seeems determined to put everyone to sleep.

-- Stanley Lucas (stanleylucas@webtv.net), July 31, 1999.