Reasons given by Reuters~

U.S. 2nd-Qtr Labor Costs Rise More Than Expected, Pointing to Inflation

and

U.S. Economy Expanded at Slower-Than-Expected Pace in the Second Quarter

-- just me (not@important.now), July 29, 1999

Answers

And a lot of talk about Y2k and it's affects today on CNBC.

Thanks just me.

Mike

==================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

Er, to me a "free fall" describes a panic market where there are no buyers. A market can fall 20% in a day under those conditions. That's not what I see, yet. Doesn't mean those conditions couldn't develop later today or any day, though.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 29, 1999.

It's been going like this for a while now. Does not mean anything really.... Recently it fell as much as 250 points, then 150 the next day only to be up 500 points over the following week. I don't even get excited/jittery over a 200 point drop anymore.

I cashed out at 9400 points. But feel a heck of a lot better now.

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), July 29, 1999.

Mike, I wouldn't exactly call it a "freefall." The market seems to be stuck in a trading range the past few months. The freefall could come later this year.

-- (StockWatcher@IC.com), July 29, 1999.

i think people won't wake up until the market dips back underneath the 10,000 mark. THEN they'll start considering if they should do something with their holdings....

-- SuperLurker (Slfsl@yahoo.com), July 29, 1999.

Folks:

For what it's worth, here is a URL that tracks all the major indices and updates very frequently (sorry, HTML impaired)

http://www.nasdaq-amex.com/asp/majorindices_java.stm

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 29, 1999.

http://www.nasdaq- amex.com/asp/majorindices_java.stm

-- Ct Vronsky (vronsky@anna.com), July 29, 1999.

Gotta look at where the market was at the start of the year--still up tremendously, even the Nasdaq, which took a big hit last week and now today. I got 90 percent out at a nice high. I still have a few stocks I'm trying to "time". Some are so deflated, I will just hold them until the companies crash and burn. Anyone thinking we will have a functioing IRS next April?

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

I believe a lot of this reflects the incredibly tight labor market. The myth that manpower is available to handle all the proposed manual workarounds is right up there with the myth that just because a contingency plan includes a large generator, one will magically be available.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), July 29, 1999.

Mara Wayne I don't think the IRS will make it! So much so that we delayed paying our 98 taxes and are going to delay them again.

Just me-- Its 12:50 eastern and the DOW is down 170 How is this a freefall?

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), July 29, 1999.

I'm totally out. (It really hurt 'cause I was a bull until July '98 when the sleepless nights kicked in for real.) I'm now shorting it systematically (an allocation per month) using the Prudent Bear Fund (recommended on this forum months back). As to the IRS, it's failure to attain compliance seems to be one of the mathematical certainties of this whole mess. In fact, one of my lead in sales pitches in my fire and brimstone conversion speeches is, "What are the odds that the IRS can remediate millions of lines of code? What has the federal government ever done efficiently? Will the IRS use little yellow pads to record who paid? What will we do without a tax system? In principle, we really ought to be able to convert DGIs to GIs without even using facts, just rhetorical questions (but of course being a GI and DGI is not from logic -- it's religion!)

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), July 29, 1999.

Now Dow -206 @ 1:15pm and plunging..

-- Slammer (Slammer@Slamma.Ramma), July 29, 1999.

piss on the dow and the irs. they're both gone in a few months. and when will you fools stop voting for republocrats ?

jeeeez

-- Eat the Rich (eattherich@mailcity.com), July 29, 1999.

With regard to the IRS

I am a CPA by trade, and work as a controller at a mid-sized construction company, in addition to this. Earlier this year, one of our companies had a 940(federal unemployment)overpayment. The IRS sent their usual letter...apply or refund. I called the IRS and asked them to apply the refund. The IRS representative came back on the phone after a 10 minute absence, telling me that the overpayment HAD to be refunded, as they can't post any payments to tax forms with DUE DATES after 1/1/00. Accordingly, I assume this is the case for all areas of tax....1120, 1040, etc, and this being the case, they cannot apply ANY estimated tax payments for any form DUE after 12/31/99.

Get out the little yellow pads?

Southside Ed

-- Southside Ed (still@home.fornow), July 29, 1999.

I have relatives that are IRS agents and they tell me that their computers are no where near ready. My relatives are also prepared to the max and don't expect to be employed by the IRS. They have moved their stock and assets into durable goods and cash. We failed (no fault of ours), to report some income, that was 4 years ago and we just now got notice of our oversight from the IRS.

-- ~~~~~ (~~~~@~~~.com), July 29, 1999.

DOW down 235 point at 1:40pm est. Shares in Gold companies are up 3.2%. Hmmm....

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), July 29, 1999.

NOT exzactly a free-fall, looka t the chart. Basically one drop on news and then, trading range at down about 200-240.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 29, 1999.

I don't actually know enough about the market to say it's in a freefall : )

Right now, 10:45 am pst, Dow is down 254 points, NASDAQ down 78, S&P down 32.

I'm really curious to see if the market will bounce back by near the end of the day. Since I know very little I've been looking to see how resilient it is at close. Today *feels* a little different to me than other days and since I only can go by *feeling* I think the Dow may go down close to 300 points today...

but, that's not a prediction, just a feeling : )

===============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

The IRS is already TOAST. It's not burnt toast yet but it will be.

-- too scared to say (the IRS h@tes.me), July 29, 1999.

Totally acecdotal----but---regarding the IRS--having started a small business five years ago we did not make any payments at all in 1996 and 1997 but still filed. Having gone to the edge with the IRS as in not making payments due to lack of cash flow, a very interesting scenario has evolved. In Dec. 1998 I had a conversation with an IRS rep. in which I explained my situation, she said someone would contact me in Feb. 99 to do a financial analysis on my situation and would come up with a payment plan.

Much to my absolute amazment I have neither heard a word or recieved any letters and here it is Almost August. VERY STRANGE!! I mean really strange, it is as if they have seized to exist.

This situation sort of coincides with Gary Norths interpetation of self employed people being the first to blow the whistle and then everyone else followingt suit. Please understand this is not a tax evasion scenario--it simply seems as if they have totally dropped the ball up to this point. Anyone else have a similar experience??

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

I wondered when you'd be responding to this thread Mr. Butts! :)

-- I'm (with@titude.now), July 29, 1999.

Southside Ed, I believe your information deserves a NEW thread. Would you mind posting it to a new thread??

If the market is following in the footsteps of the 1929 market it may have one last blow off top, for a few weeks, where only the bluest of blue chips participate!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 29, 1999.

The DJIA did not free fall today. Keep in mind that a drop of 200 or so points is a drop of about 2%. That is hardly a freefall in todays market. A "freefall" would have to be at least 800 points in one day, at which, by the Exchanges rules, all trading MUST stop. And then, to REALLY be a freefall, that type of loss would have to keep up for at least 3-4 days, with little or no recovery being made, despite assurances that would be given by the Exchange leaders or Mr. Greenspan. My guess is the Dow is going to slowly decline through August - maybe fall by 200-300 points on average from the previous weeks numbers. But, come fall, all bets will be off. If the Dow falls, there will still be buyers for certain stocks, because it will be seen as a good time to buy, to the average invester. When fall arrives, and people start to think about winter, my guess is y2k will come on the radar screen more often. That's when market watching may become interesting. 3rd quarter profit statements will be interesting also. Question is, how many compaies will be experiencing a noticeable loss in profits due to unexpected, increased expenditures to y2k? How many are currently laying off or plan to lay off personnel, so the money for the y2k fixes will be available?

-- luann (flataufm@hutchtel.net), July 29, 1999.

Mara: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

PREDICTION~

DOW WILL LEVEL OFF TOMMORROW AND EVEN HAVE A SLIGHT GAIN. NASDAQ WILL ROAR BACK AS MANY "JUMP" ON UNDERVALUED TECH STOCKS.

ALL THIS IS DUE TO GREENSPANS ANNOUNCING THE FED WILL HIKE INTERST RATES. PPL ARE VERY SKITISH AND ALWAYS REACT THIS WAY TO SUCH ANOUNCEMENTS.

WE WILL SEE IN A FEW SHORT HOURS IF I AM RIGHT OR WRONG.

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRIDAMUS_WAS_A_CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), July 30, 1999.

Ummmm Luann- the triggers are not that simple. I'll look them up and try to post them on Fri as it's time for bed now, but it STARTS at 10% (of the previous quartter ending close) as the first trigger, 20% as the next and 30 % as the close for the day. 10% is about a thousand points.

chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 30, 1999.

History Lesson: The Wall Street Crash (1929)

The market fell 7% (that would be about 800 points today) in a few hours. That wasn't it. That was just the beginning of it.

1987 was fairly hair-raising too, though a mere blip in comparison with 1929. (It was particularly hair-raising for London traders: the UK had just suffered the "hurricane" and our market was closed due to lack of electricity, so everyone was locked in. A warning of things to come?)

This market is moving sideways in a trading range. Nothing even noteworthy is happening unless the S+P drops below 1280 -ish (or breaks above the all-time high and stays there).

Of course, everyone on this list is out of the market anyway. Aren't they?

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), July 30, 1999.

The uninformed like to throw the term "freefall" around to add to the doom and gloom this site provides.

-- (StockGUY@crash.com), July 30, 1999.

SO FAR SO GOOD.

DOW- LEVEL AT 10,788

NASDAQ- GAINING 2672 (+32)

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRIDAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), July 30, 1999.

Predictoramus,

Perhaps next time. :-)

Nigel,

Out? No, but not long. :-)

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), July 30, 1999.

Down 136.14 today.

-- just me (not@important.now), July 30, 1999.

Bond market hit hard.

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), July 30, 1999.

YO!!! PREDICTORAMUS you moron.......

Your predicitons are right up there with Stan Deyo, Art Bell and Nostradamus.

-- (StockWatcher@ICU.com), July 31, 1999.

I PREFER TO INVOKE THE COMPANY OF DR. GARY NORTH.

MY PREDICTION WAS MEARLY MISTIMED. IT APPLIES TO LATER THIS WEEK.

IN A FEW SHORT DAYS WE SHALL SEE IF I AM RIGHT OR WRONG.

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRADAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), August 02, 1999.

Today (Monday) we saw a nice little rally that had the DJIA up about 125, then it just fell out of bed in the very last hour and finished down 9. Poor thing is just stuggling along, trying to gain traction. Watch for analysts to try a bit more jawboning.

Way too much speculation going on in this market for my taste.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 02, 1999.

PREDICTORAMUS,

You write: "My prediction was merely mistimed". When making investments, mistiming is often not a "merely" kind of thing.

The company of Gary North? Yes, he has some recent mistiming problems also. He posted today that the June 30 10Qs are overdue. He's almost two weeks early.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), August 02, 1999.

DOW GAINING AT 10,700.

NASDAQ DOWN SLIGHTLY

S&P 500 HOLDING STEADY.

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRADAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), August 03, 1999.

DOW ROARING BACK UP - 101 POINTS - 10,775

NASDAQ - FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RECOVERY AND STALEMATE.

A FEW SHORT DAYS AND WE WILL SEE IF I AM RIGHT.

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRADAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), August 04, 1999.

I AM CORRECT, AGAIN.

THANK ME WITH YOUR CHECK BOOK.

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRADAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), August 11, 1999.