Denial why is there so much? Just some thoughts

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
The Denial thread prompted me to pose this question. The general public is not in denial, it's the doomers that are in denial. Denial that things just may turn out to be a bump in the road. Why? Well take George, he follows all of Anita's misinformation rules. (I think he's taking private lessons). He refuses to "hear" any good news. Believes the gov only when the gov says "there a risk that disruptions will occur". A very bland non threatenting statement but he believes that translates into "there'll be a ten year depression". Then he calls all testimony on good news a spin job. Why? Why do the doomers twist these words into supporting their position.

First, let me just add that we know that George is not doing Y2K remediation, so he has no basis for his beliefs other than those reports from North and Milne and Yourdon. Let that speak for itself.

My theory: doomers don't want to believe that there may be a bump in the road. I know there have been many threads in the past about this topic and doomers have reported that they will simply give away their supplies. But, I don't buy it (sorry for the pun).

Doomers have been working years to prepare. Many say it's too late to start preparing now, so obviously, they believe it would take more than five months to prepare. They have put their life savings into preparing; they have "focused" daily on their potential needs; they have sacrificed many frivilous items to prepare. No vacation, no toys, no fun for the last year.... just focus. Now the end is drawing near. No problems from the look ahead systems. (I remember a quote from Bob Mangus last year that said Jan 1 99 would be a "meltdown") Well we didn't "meltdown" as Ed and others predicted. There's a doubt creeping in that maybe, just maybe, we'll come out the other side with little scratches.

What happens to the emotional side of the doomers? These sacrifices and relentless focusing drained them. No emotions left to think about this event not coming true. Too late to start changing gears and thinking about all the money lost on preparations.

They'll question themselves: What do I do with six months fuel supply for a generator that I'll never use? What do I do with six months water supply? I can give away the food but that's still a lot of money down the drain. I want to get back to my previous life and find I'm stuck with no funds. I want to start having fun again but can't. I denied myself for so long, for what? Something about a computer problems. How did I get suckered in?

These are the questions just beginning to creep in and they don't want to think it. So, they scream louder to drown out the inner voice. This realization may not come tomorrow but it will come soon. I think that many doomers may go "postal", just snap.

-- Maria (maria97@hotmail.com), July 27, 1999

Answers

With rational preparations, there is very little or no loss...for example...

If Y2K turns out minor, I will maintain a substantial food supply, lamp oil (and lamps), generator, etc. for hurricane preparedness (and power outages). My chickens will supply me with fresh eggs... My garden will no doubt (slightly) reduce living expenses for the next year. Excess food can be donated to the homeless, unemployed, or other deserving individuals (through churches or directly). I just hope that I get my sailboat and there is no problem...I want to enter the Waikiki to Kaua'i race next year! Overall, if there is no problem, I expect to have a GREAT year, with somewhat lower expenses...and if there are problems, we will be comfortable, and in a position to help others...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), July 27, 1999.

We who are real GIs hope and pray that the event will NOT happen. We do not regret our actions. We are able to go to bed at night knowing that we have prepared for our wives, children and parents. That is LOVE and not paranoia. If it doesn't happen, we will know that we acted in the proper manner. Then, our church and Salvation Army food pantrys will have a hefty contribution. Do you sleep well at night?

-- churchorganist (swedemusic@webtv.net), July 27, 1999.
I've wondered about this at great length. I think ultimately, once people have taken a position, they simply *cannot* admit error. The fact that this reduces them to pitiful caricatures seems to escape their fanatical notice.

A few years back when remediation was just starting to get into full swing, the cry went up that it was too late (North and Hamasaki were chief cheerleaders). And since we had no idea what was involved (and neither did the organizations, really), this was a real possibility. Certainly one worth guarding against.

Initial evaluations and tests were decidedly not encouraging. Stories of past date bugs were scary, and we heard about assembly lines shutting down, bank vaults locked during business hours, elevator maintenance schedules getting scrambled, highly date-dependent industries like finance and insurance allocating mind-boggling budgets, bbbbbillions of embedded chips, etc. More good reasons to prepare.

But as the reports have flowed in, the fog is clearing. Those embedded chip bugs turned out to be orders of magnitude less common than the worst case. The lookaheads were a bust, the 'spike dates' passed uneventfully, the utilities look solid, the financial system is in the throes of final interbank testing.

And as this has been happening, the Doomies have become ever more shrill. They can no longer use lack of data to support plausible doubt, because the data are no longer so lacking. Instead, they have turned to flat denial ("they're all LYING, I tell you!!!), and personal attacks. They change the subject, argue in circles, distort, misrepresent, and deny deny deny. Just wander over to the Weiss thread and watch Hoffmeister calmly use hard information to hand 'a' his ass on a platter. Repeatedly.

Other events here are illustrative. We have Outings, whose sole purpose is to try to discredit people, contributing nothing of value. We had Norm, who was driven off for posting reports of real progress. We have several Doomies who do no more than follow around anyone who shows any sign of thinking, yapping at their heels. We have Linemeister and Diane, whose specialty is plastering over threateningly reasonable threads with huge articles barely on topic (if at all) to kill those threads. These are all forms of flat denial.

Preparation is really a side issue, well covered on another forum. In its place, we have a legion of Doomies claiming that anyone who sees any hope is telling people not to prepare. Repeated challenges to find *one, single* post actually telling people not to prepare are met with mindless attacks, since there are no such posts. But denial has never been honest. By now, it has become pathetic. The thought quotient on this forum is so low it's become almost impossible to find a sincere question to think about.

I think the forum is now dying. There's hardly enough bad news left (as opposed to BIG gaps in the progress reports) to support serious concerns, so it's being replaced by childish tantrums. And this is a shame, because y2k remains a threat, and deserves a frank and honest appraisal. But we don't find that here anymore. A shame.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 27, 1999.

What will I be doing with 150 gallons of stabilized gasoline? Burning it my car idiot. Will take all of about 6 weeks at the rate I drive.

No, Maria, the only ones going postal will be those who expect "minor inconveniences" and are confronted instead with life threatening situations.

Guess you were never a Boy Scout, huh.

-- a (a@a.a), July 27, 1999.

Only Time Will Tell.

Period

The End

-- MarktheFart (quke@ix.netcom.com), July 27, 1999.

Maria:

I'm preparing for a Great Depression to hit America. If Y2K is not as severe as some predict, I'll be greatly relieved, but that won't stop me from preparing even more.

Y2K or not, the stock market is going to crash, and America will be punished more severely than the rest of the world.

--- associate member of the Y2K Doomer Cult since OCT98

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 27, 1999.

Maria,

How much money do you spend on car insurance every year?

How much money do you spend on life insurance?

How much money do you spend on house insurance?

Do you spend money for health benefits?

Do you own candles, a flashlight, or have a savings account?

Just wondering.

-- Prudential (justwondering@home.prepared), July 27, 1999.

Flint commented:

"I think the forum is now dying. There's hardly enough bad news left (as opposed to BIG gaps in the progress reports) to support serious concerns, so it's being replaced by childish tantrums. And this is a shame, because y2k remains a threat, and deserves a frank and honest appraisal. But we don't find that here anymore. A shame. "

Flint, why do we read today that corporations and government are hiring top gun PR FLACKS to perpetuate their LIES. You have done more to DECEIVE people on this forum than any other participant. You speak out of both sides of your mouth. Thankfully it does not take most folks very long to figure you out.

Personally I believe you are a paid government or corporate SHILL.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 27, 1999.

Maria commented:

"First, let me just add that we know that George is not doing Y2K remediation, so he has no basis for his beliefs other than those reports from North and Milne and Yourdon. Let that speak for itself."

Maria, I think this statement says more about you than anything I could say.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 27, 1999.

Let's see Maria,

If Y2K 'aint no thang....

There's all kinds of other fun disasters in the hopper just waitin' to pop!

To wit:

Economic hiccups and burps.

The Asian Flu II crisis

The Flight to Liquidity at a market "correction"

Smallpox. Anthrax and other biological weapons agents in the hands of terrorists hell-bent on revenge on U.S. soil.

Nukes Nukes Nukes. Russian nukes, Chinese nukes, missing nukes, suitcase nukes...so who's got a grudge and a cause huh?

Newfound 3-stage rocket and warhead technology...all in the hands of friendly maniacs like Syria and Iran...thanks to the willingness of our Chinese friends to share the stuff they stole from us. Isn't that delightful??

Roe V Wade

China V Taiwaan

N. Korea V S. Korea

India V Pakistan

Extremists V Clintons

Oooohhhh and we didn't even touch on OPEC yet have we?

Take yer pic....round and round she goes...what disaster strikes.....

....nobody knows.

Yeah, Maria. preparations...who needs 'em huh? Just a sick-twisted meme and a desire to survive.

Dangerous isn't it?

So worried and perplexed about us doomers.

Trying to understand our disease.

Stupid moron.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 27, 1999.

Flint wrote, There's hardly enough bad news left (as opposed to BIG gaps in the progress reports) to support serious concerns

You mean like the new State Department report warning of economic problems around the world, including the United States? Like the recent New York Times story talking about how far behind Germany and other European countries are? Like the Chemical Board warning US Governors about possible hazardous dangers? Like Tava/RW Beck saying electric outages lasting weeks are possible? And on and on?

Guess those aren't "serious concerns," huh?

-- Longtime Lurker (hide@nd.seek), July 27, 1999.

You touched on the economy Invar, but I would like to emphasis that we are in the middle or the largest financial bubble in the history of the world, as promoted and nurtured by the Clinton Administration and the Federal Reserve. Even without y2k this will result in a serious depression.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 27, 1999.

Always with the cheery news to uplift depressing facts aren't you Ray?

Geesh, I thought the smallpox stuff would give Maria the willies.

Guess ya need to hit 'em where it hurts...in the wallet!

Thanks Ray, for shinning light on the emotional murkiness that is the irrational exhuberance of the "financial bubble".

Depression anyone?

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 28, 1999.

Marma is pissed off because her dirty tongue backlashed and got her clobbered with manure-filled mudballs in a quite enlightening thread below entitled:

"PHONES will work??? MARIA ..."

Approximately some 60 some people posted in that thread so please don't miss the fun. Actually that thread exceeded the number of posts merited by the JFK Jr. thread and the George Bush Jr. thread ! Wow Marma Wow!!

So Marma's made up things to make me look like a "bad ugly doomer" (I'm handsome though) and so she says that I don't want to hear 'good news'. But I DO hear good news, it's just that I don't hear ENOUGH good news from here and from abroad to make us feel nearly comfortable (Marma doesn't understand the importance of foreign Y2K compliance, and as many other arrogant people she's very narrow minded). But it's August 99 you know with less than 100 theoretical working days left!! So... And then I never EVER said anywhere that Y2K will necessarily mean a 10 year depression!! No one has ever heard that from me, not even wify. And I have never EVER yet used the term or the concept of "spin job"... So Marma, you are NOT being honest this time. And as far as the emotional side of your own personality I repeat a question asked to you before by another poster: Why are you so frustrated honey? Do you sleep well at night? Do you spend all your free time just talking to boring pollys?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 28, 1999.

Flint,

"They cannot admit error." This means everyone but Flint of course. We have not bowed to your big brain so we are now unworthy of you, is that it? You couldn't be wrong could you Flint? You pat yourself on the back for being Mr. Objective yet your objectivity has itself become a form of denial that demands you get off your high horse and join the pitiful cariatures you distain yet project.

"...as the reports have flowed in, the fog is clearing." Yes, I can see now....Russia is toast. Japan's financial houses are doomed. And our defense Secretary announces yesterday that terrorism by the/on rollover day is a certainty. Need I go on. See INVAR and posts above.

You have chosen to believe what supports your position. The fact that your post is not objective including the pollys denial process is hypocrisy.

As usual Flint you twirl your words into whirling flames of philosophical, existential sophistry. Your posts rarely are supported by outside sources. Rather you depend on your skill to turn words.... into proof.

For instance, you accuse doomies of saying you tell people not to prepare and then offer a challenge to find one direct statement, you made to this effect. You accuse them of being dishonest. Yet by your refusal to admit y2k is a problem to prepare for ....you in essence influence people to not prepare.

This post you just made clearly identifies you as someone who does not see y2k as a problem to prepare for. You have now staked out your position. No more maybes Flint. No more 'go ahead and buy a generator'. The utilities are solid right Flint? Any encouragement from you now to prepare is a lie. As a matter of fact you should just join Norm. Why waste your time here with a pitiful bunch of cariatures that are lying themselves into denial? Yes, Yourdon and Hamasaki are in denial or worse lying to make a buck right? Didn't you read Ed's response to Poole who didn't deserve a response? He said he was wrong 3X. Cory is still assessing the situation, open, but pessimistic. By calling them liars, you are lifting yourself up. In actuality, you have lowered yourself.

Yes, new thoughts are hard to come by now. New questions even harder. Now we wait to see who was really lying. We will see who helped people and who hindered people.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 28, 1999.

Maria and Flint both proved their points and you can tell by reading the followups. They asked about Y2K disruptions and how many have spent life savings preparing for it.

Instead we have a few posts about donating it all to charity, couple posts about how the economy is on the verge of collapse, a few postings about how wars are all about to break out, accusations that Flint is a paid shill, asking if you get insurance on your home, car, ect ect ect.

Its almost comical to the point that I have to wonder if either Flint or Maria posted those under others names. Being a doomer though clouds you mind to what I just wrote and Im sure the upcoming new Ice Age survival book from Art Bell coming this December will let you start all new preps.

And they say pollys DWGI.

-- MrWayCool (mariaprovedherpoint@lookattheposts.com), July 28, 1999.

Flint, you are incredibly dense. More so than any of your detractors are aware.

I cash out of the market near its all time peak, you say I've made a big mistake.

I leave more money in the bank for rollover than even you plan to, I'm a "doomer".

I store some gasoline and firewood, Maria says I'm nuts. Yet half of the Fortune 500 are building war rooms and stockpiling 1000's of gallons of diesel. Power plants quadrupling coal supplies. Cities building multimillion dollar bunkers. They must be Wackos.

I predict a 50% chance of Yourdon's 10 year depression, I'm a nutcase, even though the former Chairman of the FED Paul Voliker, the world most successful financier George Soros and Japan's lead economist Dr. Yen suggest the same thing.

Hoff interprets the SEC filings differently than industry expert Weiss and you claim that he's "handing me my ass on a platter", never mind that these reports were compiled by managers and lawyers falling over themselves to portray a bad situation in a favorable light.

We make it through a couple of key dates without meltdown and Flint issues the "all clear". And its just July 1999. The meltdown is yet to come. Gartner Group and Mitre Corp have predicted that the escalation of the effect is starting now.

The CIA, State Dept, and dozens of other organizations too numerous to recount predict severe disruptions overseas and domino effect supply line problems, but I'm an idiot to think they will affect life in the US.

India and Pakistan almost nuked each other last month. Defense Sec. Cohen just predicted biological terrorism on US soil. Many states' National Guards are mobilizing. FBI canceling all leave for 60 days, unprecedented. Executive Orders poised for enactment.

Japan Inc. in the crapper. Trillions in debt. Almost as much as US. Hedge funds leveraged to the hilt. Almost took out the global economy a year ago. House of Cards. Built by Ponzi himself.

D.C. is toast. Authorities scrambling to find "locomotive sized generators" to power the "warming centers". Flint thinks its business as usual. And Maria ridicules folks for storing some rice and beans.

SWIFT, the backbone if international commerce, screwed. Only 22% of banks worldwide "ready", whatever that means.

Bell & AT&T reporting that 50% of their vendors are lying about compliancy. Documented accounts of government and industry hiring PR firms to "spin" the news.

Nuke plants, power distribution centers setting their clocks back to 1972 and hoping for the best. 2 of 21 largest US cities "ready" -- worldwide - don't ask. 10% of water treatment plants expected to fail by the governments own reports.

GAO constantly catching government agencies exaggerating progress and in outright lies. GAO is worried. So is the Senate.

Personal awareness alarmingly low. Jokes made in the media about how laughable the y2k issue is. Officials smiling through gritted teeth warning of a three day storm.

The Pentagon pleading with Russia to share strategic early warning data. While they stage war games and threaten to nuke us.

Society in the worst shape since the days of the fall of Rome.

The flood of system failures increasing. How long before the limited supply of programmers is overwhelmed? Many are sitting unemployed because management is to cheap, scared and stupid to have utilized them.

How many Chernobyls will we have Flint? How many Bophals? You yourself have said you expect these types of things, that is, when you're in a mood to think realistically and not just ridicule the messengers.

All of this was predicted. By Flint's nemesis Paul Milne. But Flint can't accept that. He must not let that truth sink in. This pig farmer cannot be another Noah. Even though every single thing on this page is backed by a URL and something called HARD EVIDENCE. Flint would rather waste our time with pep talks and pontification on what "is" is.

You say the forum is dying but the number of new threads bringing disturning news has skyrocketed. Maybe whats dying is the pollanna mentality.

I could fill this thread with more bad news, but Flint would say I am just being pessimistic. Lets let him fill the rest with happy thoughts.

Good luck Flint. Maybe its all just a dream. Or a nightmare.

-- a (a@a.a), July 28, 1999.

Maria, I believe that you are the most worried of us all. Why else would you spend so much time trying to straighten us out on this issue? It's not enough that 98% or so of the general public are with you on this? Could it be so important to have our piddly 2% on board as well? Just wondering.....out loud.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), July 28, 1999.
Oh yeah, the standard arguments of the Doom Zombie Brainwashed Idiots.

"well if I'm wrong, I'll just have more food to eat; I'll have less of an electric bill to pay because I went solar; yadda yadda yadda."

What about these REAL scenarios that have ALREADY HAPPENED, you FRIGGIN IDIOT GENIUSES? Where people have been HURT in REAL LIFE ALREADY? due to your idiotic panic-mongering SHIT

"Well I now wish we hadn't aborted that baby that we were going to have, that we aborted due to thinking Y2k was going to be so bad"

"Well I wish I hadn't cashed in my 401-K and converted it into gold coins...the stock market has gone up since then, and gold has gone down...I lost a good portion of my life savings"

"I wish now I hadn't sold my dream home and bugged out to the hills....had everything I wanted right there where I was...."

In other words, don't hand me this SHIT about how your way of handling things can't hurt anybody. That's BULLSHIT on the highest order. Of course I expect Ms. Thorazine Squire to delete this posthaste...but if anyone reads it and is clued in, then it's worth the typing. And I can post it again. You Doomers are enemies of the people. PERIOD.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), July 28, 1999.

By my count we're already at the bump in the road!

Maria, Flint where will you two be flying to over the turnover. I'll even flip for the tickets. Uncloaking required to claim prize! E-mail address is real!

Got courage?

-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), July 28, 1999.

Maria,

Implicit in much of your article is the assumption that many people have made preparations that would be misguided and burdensome to them in any other outcome than a total disintegration of Western Civilization. I think that you are overly pessimistic in your assessment of people's judgement concerning their own lives (which they are closer to than you and I are).

I have noticed that a fair percentage of the people who post to Y2K forums or newsgroups, describing expensive and elaborate preps are also people who appear to be quite well off (Taz comes to mind) and often express contentment with their current surroundings and their current lives.

My take on things is that it is hard to lead people in directions they do not want to go. If many folks have made preps I would personally find onerous, that is not a reflection on their judgement. I am not them. Each of us makes those preps that seem "about right" considering our own circumstances. I can tell you there is not one preparation I have made that seems to me radical or uncomfortable. I have taken pains *not* to put myself in the position of requiring disaster in order to justify my decisions. I expect this is the norm, not the exception, among GIs.

I think you are reacting to the excessive negative emotions that are displayed here. Ease your mind. It is my experience that anonymously expressed emotion is cheap and people take advantage of it to vent. Suburbanites also pay to see slasher movies. When it comes to their money, people get much more serious and linger longer over their choices.

I don't expect to see a wave of emotionally unstable doomers going postal if Y2K ends up a bump in the road. Those handful who might were no doubt unstable for quite other reasons, and Y2K was simply what they fixed upon as a topical mania. If it happens, Y2K is certain to be incidental, in the same way that any particular rock group or video game was purely incidental to teh shootings in Littleton, Colorado.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 28, 1999.

Hey Mad Monk! What are you going to do in Hawaii If Y2K is a 10? Your islands will not get any food shipped to them. I guess you will just have to eat pineapple, papaya, banana's, etc. etc. The islanders may just discover better health through eating fresh fruit. They will get rid of all kinds of ailments! You guys may just start something new in the health movement after Y2K!!! Fresh Hawaiian fruit will be in real demand when the mainlanders find out about all the healthy Hawaiians!

-- Y2K ready (Y2Kready@aol.com), July 28, 1999.
Chicken Little, Excuse me, but why are you so worried about people spending their own money and time on something they feel is important? That is in every respect legal and non-violent. You know, people believe in all kinds of things. Are you the judge and jury for each one? If so you must be God, and I mean no disrespect, but you are posting with an alias.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), July 28, 1999.
"What if you're wrong?" [about Y2K]

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000ZMe

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 28, 1999.

..."because y2k remains a threat, and deserves a frank and honest appraisal. But we don't find that here anymore. A shame..." -- Flint

Perhaps some of you missed that part.

I'm hungry. Hmmm, maybe a little chicken salad sandwich?

-- J (jart5@bellsouth.net), July 28, 1999.

Flint:

As I recall, a few days ago you referred to on-going remediation efforts as "insufficient." Pray tell, sir, exactly how does statement square with the one you just voiced above?

Kind regards,

-- Yan (no@no.no), July 28, 1999.

Yan,

If you are referring to the quote fron Flint that I pasted, then I would say they go hand in hand.

"y2k a serious threat...remediation 'insufficient.'"

If not that quote, then I guess we wait and see if Flint is still here...

Could you be more specific as to what statement you mean, please?

-- J (jart5@bellsouth.net), July 28, 1999.

Brain, thanks for your response. You just went up a notch in my book (if that means anything to you). I'm not speaking about rational preparing for a disaster; I know some have done just that. I have as I always have in the past. Just because I have a fire extinguisher in my home doesn't mean I believe there'll be a fire. But I'm prepared if there is one.

I'm talking about the screamers. INVAR is a prime example. Take a look at posts from last year. He (I think it was he) wrote a three part saga about JBD that was plain outright sick, disgusting (they poured cement up J's butt), yet the doomers loved it. It's this mentality that has me worried about going postal. It's the guys who never owned a gun but who went out specifically because of teotwawki to purchase guns and ammo. They're "prepared" for a little more than the rest of us. What about their emotional state? "Focus" was the title of a thread not too long ago. Focus on what? The preps are done, good news is happening all around. It's this focusing that goes beyond normal preps and normal thinking. It's the relentless, scary thoughts of doom that I believe will make them snap when it doesn't happen. It's as if this possibility (of a non event) has them scared they wasted a year of their lives, then how do they react. What will they do?

a, you said in another post that you buy "useless" (my word not yours) items now instead of putting money in the bank. Doesn't that put pressure on your marriage? Does you spouse believe? What about the people who bought into this doom, who broke up their marriages as a result? How will they react? Just some thoughts here.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 28, 1999.

Where do I start with this one?? Let's start with the FACTS:

I have a very open position on Y2K. It could be anywhere from a 1-10 and it wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Doomers and Pollys who are firm in their positions are both very, very wrong, because they think they can predict the future. This is folly anytime, but particularly so with an unprecedented event like Y2K. Let me give you some examples:

Everyone touts their news reports like they really mean something. Thousands of them are positive and truthful, thousands are positive and lying (spinned), thousands are negative and truthful, thousands are negative and lying (spinned). What does it mean?? That you really can't trust anyone from the highest government officials down to the man on the street. Even this is putting it very simple, because there are millions of shades of gray between positive and negative, and between truthful and lying. Don't forget that everyone (that includes you and me) has their own spin they put on it, whether conscious or not. No one will ever know the true impact of Y2K, even after it happens, because the spin will produce an "official" version of what happened, details will be withheld, blame will be passed around, etc., etc.

Much too much time is spent in trying to prove one's "position." Face it, Y2K is bigger than the both of us; bigger than all 6 billion of us. There is no way that Y2K can be understood by anyone - it's like trying to know everything, literally. One would have to know about the interdependence of every social relationship on earth to even begin to understand it (notice I said 'understand' not 'predict' - see point 1). Why do we have to argue now - there will be plenty of time for that later - when it is known. Why beat a dead horse when it's all pointless for now anyway (see point 1).

I guess I'd consider myself an alarmist, only because it is the "Devil's Advocate" approach. If most of the population wasn't "asleep," then I'd probably be on the other side. Y2K demands RESPECT! Nobody knows what will happen, but it's a safe bet that if nobody ever did anything about it, then it would be TEOTWAWKI. So what it all boils down to is hoping that "they" took it seriously and will have everything fixed in time. Not very reassuring in today's world climate (read: short term thinking, THIS quarter's profits, forget next quarter - I might be retired or dead).

Let people think what they want! As stated before, I tried to get people to take Y2K seriously, but they don't have to believe you. Let people make up their own minds. If people don't do anything and it's a 10 and they die - that's THEIR PROBLEM, not yours. If they do the full survivalist routine (1 year food/water/fuel, cash out 401K, move, etc.) and Y2K is a 1 and they're left with all this stuff - that's THEIR PROBLEM, not yours. Leave people alone and let them make up their own minds, especially at this late stage of the game. It's too late if they don't GI one way or another by now.

I could go on forever without calling any names. I can easily see any position on Y2K, because, quite frankly, anything's possible. But let me finish with a tried and true statement:

Nobody knows what will happen, so hope for the best and prepare for the worst

Subject to one's own interpretation, of course ;-)

-- Jim (x@x.x), July 28, 1999.

>> I'm talking about the screamers. INVAR is a prime example. Take a look at posts from last year. He (I think it was he) wrote a three part saga about JBD that was plain outright sick, disgusting (they poured cement up J's butt), yet the doomers loved it. It's this mentality that has me worried about going postal. <<

There is no question that some folks are using Y2K newsgroups and forums to spew out elaborate revenge fantasies in which they "get back" at their "enemies" who disagreed with them about the likely severity of Y2K. The next big question is how seriously to take these expressions of hate.

Revenge fantasies are common enough. I have them from time to time. So, simply having such a fantasy is not enough to brand someone as dangerous and unstable (except insofar as we *all* are).

But these fantasies are being shared publically and in detail. We aren't used to that. In the past, sharing such a fantasy in a public forum would have bad consequences for the fantasizer. Society doesn't like this sort of dirty linen in public, and has never tolerated it well. Anti-social people get marginalized and isolated as a punishment.

The Internet has provided a peculiar kind of public place where people can remain safely anonymous while still sharing in a social discussion. We've all seen how this anonymity has protected people who engage in public anti-social behavior. It even leads to mutually reinforcing groups who egg one another on. That's ugly, but how much danger is in it?

Some. But my opinion is that these mutually reinforcing groups who form in cyberspace are only truly, physically dangerous if they begin to meet face-to-face in the same room, instead of in cyberspace. Until then, they are so many isolated specks of anonymous emotion.

I think the ugly speech we witness so much of on the Internet is just a reflection of the uglier side of society and humanity in general. This has always been with us, just as criminals have always been with us.

There is no way of to know which of the folks here who have been the most vocally hateful are paper tigers who will never carry through and which are criminally inclined and may someday act it out. My guess is that the numbers on each side in TB2000 would probably reflect society at large. There may be some proto-criminals here. There are probably lots more mean-spirited or just-plain-frustrated people, indulging themselves in fantasies they would never carry out in real life.

At least, that's my guess.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 28, 1999.

I'm middle of the road on Y2K (6-7 for the U.S. on the WDC Y2K scale; 6-8 for the rest of the world, depending on which countries you are talking about), but, frankly, I think most of the Y2K denial is on the part of the pollys and the American populace as a whole, not on the part of the doomers, who form only a tiny percentage of the population as a whole anyway. Here's why:

By the Fed's own valuation model, the current stock market (S&P 500 Index) is overvalued by more than 70%, assuming 6% growth in corporate operating earnings over the next four quarters (an optimistic assumption, by the way, given historical standards). Yet everybody from Bill Clinton on down seems to assume that the stock market will continue to grow by 15-20% over the next 5 years and somehow won't even be touched by Y2K. This is not just denial, it's madness. If psychosis is clinically defined as the inability to distinguish illusion from reality, then most Americans these days are, to put it bluntly, psychotic--maddened by greed.

The CIA Y2K assessments for many countries are grim. Ditto for World Bank, UN, NIC, and BIS Y2K assessments. Global trade is likely to take some major hits.

The fed. govt. has classified fewer than 10% of its computer systems as "mission-critical." State and local govts. are pulling the same PR shenanigans. So are many, many corporations. And the latest Cap Gemini survey shows that even on those ridiculous terms, 22% of Fortune 1000 companies won't get all their mission-critical systems fixed by year's end (let alone all their other systems). SMEs worldwide are generally conceded to be even further behind than are the big companies on Y2K. Look at Taiwan, for instance (which Gartner does not consider an especial laggard on Y2K!): by the Taiwanese govt.'s own admission, few SMEs are doing anything about Y2K.

Remember how a year of testing was said to be needed for enterprisewide IT systems? Well, almost nobody is getting anything close to that. Many SMES (granted, they have much smaller systems than do the big boys) will do NO testing.

BellSouth found that up to 50% of the compliance statements made by its vendors were false, a finding in line with other investigations into vendor statements. Yet many companies and utilities have relied upon type (sample!) testing and vendor compliance statements for assessing their embedded systems. It seems to me there could be plenty of nasty surprises next year. Also reference the findings of TAVA and ABB, both experts in embedded systems: grim news. TAVA's chief operating officer, Cameron Daley, said a few weeks ago that, based on TAVA's work with over 100 U.S. power companies, he believes there might be regional power outages lasting as long as several weeks. And this doesn't even factor in the threat of cyberterrorist attacks against the grid system under cover of Y2K--threats that DoD and the NSA are taking extremely seriously.

Has everyone forgotten about PBX systems, especially in SMEs?

Long look-ahead fiscal programs reportedly comprise only about 3% of total corporate software, yet people are claiming that the relative lack of high-profile (i.e., publicized) "disasters" so far means we're in great shape on Y2K. This is arrant nonsense. Guess which programs got fixed (or circumvented) first, folks? And by the way, if you think Y2K-related problems haven't cost any companies big bucks so far, get on the phone to Samsonite, or check out the Y2K article in the Dec. 14, 1998 issue of "Business Week." Samsonite was not alone in its failures, I suspect--just more honest and open than most.

I could go on ad infinitum but there no longer seems any point. All debates will be resolved in a few months anyway. In fact, this is my farewell post to this forum. I will close with this tried and true observation by Mark Twain: People believe what they want to believe.

What we believe, though, has no bearing on the damn facts.



-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 28, 1999.

Chicken -

I've always enjoyed Ibsen, especially <"Hedda Gabler"> and "An Enemy of the People". If warning my fellow citizens about a potentially harmful event makes me anything like Ibsen's Dr. Stockmann, I'm proud to wear the label.

By the bye, did you know you were quoting good ol' "Uncle Joe" Stalin? Now there's a role model. Here's an excerpt from a 1956 speech by that well-known McCarthyite tool, Nikita S. Khrushchev:

Stalin originated the concept "enemy of the people." This term automatically rendered it unnecessary that the ideological errors of a man or men engaged in a controversy be proven; this term made possible the usage of the most cruel repression, violating all norms of revolutionary legality, against anyone who in any way disagreed with Stalin, against those who were only suspected of hostile intent, against those who had bad reputations. This concept "enemy of the people" actually eliminated the possibility of any kind of ideological fight or the making of one's views known on this or that issue, even those of a practical character...

Didn't Peter de Jager also use this term to describe all those who continue to warn about (and encourage people to seriously prepare for) potential Y2K problems? A most unfortunate choice of words...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 28, 1999.

Gad, I certainly fumble-fingered the links. First one works, and for anyone interested, here's the link to Khrushchev's speech: "Crimes of the Stalin Era"

Onward!

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 28, 1999.

Mr. Florence,

I have enjoyed your posts, and I wish you and yours well, down there in southern NM. Your moderate stance will be missed on this forum and I salute you from here in Rio Rancho....

loungin' on the porch,

The Dog, also a moderate...

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 28, 1999.

What an interesting thread. Thanks for your responses. Some again just ignore the point of the thread but that's their choice. Good points from Flint but of course comments went to attack the person. Oh well.

Brian I agree. The web provides the ultimate mask. People can let loose and say whatever they please. This may have positive or negative effects. It may act as a release for some really wound up folks (allow venting) or it may provide insight into some who have deeper problems. We'll never know. I'm thinking specifically of the Columbine murderers. Weren't they on the web "hate groups"?

But the point I'd like to make is that, just maybe, some die hard doomers who have gone beyond reasonable preparations and put their families at more risk than less by spending their life's savings, just maybe, they refuse to look at all the evidence and they constantly shout the end is coming, only because they're too scared. Scared that if it turns out to be a bump, they have nothing to show for all their efforts. They spent money on guns and ammo they wouldn't have otherwise, they spent money on supplies they'll never use. Then they look into the bank account and find it's empty. Don't you think that may just make some (on the fringe) go postal?

Don, good points. Yeah, we just automatically tested all vendor products. We didn't count on them being compliant. Yeah the market is just out of wack. But I'm not talking about the good news out there versus the bad news. I'm talking about why doomers are shouting so much.

For example Anita keeps citing rules of dismination and says she doesn't need to re-read my posts. She says I can't say "I don't know" but missed my very first post on the thread where I explicitly said "I don't know". What makes a doomer refuse to read all the words and just scream louder that the end is near? Doomers talk about trolls but doomers exhibit troll behavior. Flint made the comment above about Outings, the biggest troll on this forum. Doomers can't see this behavior in themselves, Denial sounds like the right term.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 28, 1999.

Maria, of ALL the Polly/Trolls on this forum you stand out for your total lack of ability to say anything INTELLIGENT, I mean anything. I have been trying to figure out if you are a paid SHILL or not, but keep coming up with the same conclusion, who in their right mind would pay for your knowledge and ability to SPIN their story

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 28, 1999.

Ray thanks for making my point clearer.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 28, 1999.
Maria,

You are just as guilty of the practices of which you've just accused the doomers. At the first hint of disagreement you become highly offended, you scream and squawk, hurl insults and curses. Why is it ok when you do it?

-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

Elbow, ok I'll admit that sometimes at "first hint" but not always at "first hint". This is just slightly off topic but here goes. Take a look at Ray here. Elbow have you ever seen a post from a doomer which tells Ray to stop the childish behavior and add some of substance during his attacks? Have you ever seen a doomer tell Outings that posting quotes is very troll like and only fans the fire. This does nothing to advance discussion of Y2K issues.

Any thoughts on denial in the other direction?

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 29, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ