This thread stayed fairly active aver the week-end, so forgive me for moving it to the top once again. The previous two threads contain fifty or so responses, and some good food for thought. This was my last posting on Part 2; I'll use it to kick off things here:

_______

No wonder the Y2K problem is so interesting, so morbidly fascinating. We have had fifty or so responses, all from Y2K astute individuals, and an AMAZING variance of opinion.

We have imagined, or foreseen, if you prefer, cataclysmic downfall of our society leading to slavery, autonomous family groups, small self- governing township. Every scenario from feudalism and world-wide fascism to near-perfect governance. From love and brotherhood prevailing to military might and domination. Society that falls together or society that falls apart.

Some see almost no changes occurring, while others predict a life beyond most of our imaginations.

On another thread PNG (Paul Gauthier) said he has changed his use of the term contingency planning to recovery planning. Makes sense. Recovery is the contingency we all are planning for. We all expect or at least hope to weather the storm, to survive, to recover. Some even see an opportunity to prosper, to upwardly spiral. To evolve, rather than devolve. ______

So, for months now, we have guessed, discussed, imagined, visuallized, predicted and procrastinated about our expected modes and means of downfall due to Y2K. Here, I'll ask once more, if you have envisioned a scenario of RECOVERY, or just life in post-Y2k society, let's have it. It can be as general or a specific as you like. Many of you have shown very good foresight in predicting post-Y2K occupations, now expand and expound a little.

Remember, no personal attacks; no one is right or wrong, within the context of this thread, as it's all conjecture.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999

Answers

Should the rollover produce a '9-10' event, I suggest viewing "The Postman' for a peek at the future.

-- For (your@info.com), July 26, 1999.

Agreed. In a 9-10 scenario, I can see self-governing townships, dominated (terrorized?) by a reginal warlord. Should you be a member of one such enclave, would you accept that?

And what if it's less than 9-10? I've attemped to keep this thread very polly-friendly, so come on someone; inquiring minds want to know.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

Lon,

I have read all of the replies on the previous two threads on life past the rollover. I even put in a couple of thoughts on the very first thread. Since then, I have been thinking about my own life past the rollover.

Somedays, I go from thinking things will not be that bad, to oh hell... here we go. Did I mention the fact that I hate roller coaster rides? Things were much better for me over the past few months than they were last fall, when I REALLY started prepping. Now I find myself listening to the inner gut feeling that I have. Just hope that I don't go back to all of those sleepless nights again, because what my gut tells me isn't good.

I think that for a few months, there will be a very GOOD possibility or terrible problems with the computer processing, even if the lights stay on. Cannot go into my thoughts, but from what I see in the Y2K work where I am.... not to good. Will some people die? I think yes, due to the lack of serious work going on in the medical field. I cannot say anymore on that front, cause.... I love my job, and I still have some last minute preps to do.

Anyway, I do not think that I will ever return to the way that I lived my life before I really became concerned about the rollover. I am debt free, and hope to stay that way. I have started to enjoy the more simple things in life, with my son by my side. I am learning to look at the wonders of this world from his eyes. Makes me feel young again. Now if only I could let go of the stress, but it is starting to happen. Overall... a very bad day for me... sorry.

I will roll with the punches that comes along, accept what I must and resist what I should. I will continue to be more prudent in my living and not depend upon these systems that I write. Sometimes, I think that I should consider a career change, but other than computers what am I qualified to do?

I have been kicking around ideas about businesses that I could start, and may indeed take one on. I already have the supplies that are needed, just don't have the need at the moment because I live quite well.

I look at the elderly people living around me. I have spoken to most of them about Y2K. Some agree, but I am unsure that they are prepping, others just look at me like I am crazy. I am trying to purchase things that I can give to them if needed, but am not sure if I will ever have enough. I am starting to run out of room, and have refused to let my preps flow out into the main living area. Water is my main concern, for that is one thing that I am not sure that I shall share. I can feed some, and keep them plenty warm.

As I mentioned earlier, I have been looking at the neighborhood. I know the spots that I will want to set up security for our area, if it comes to that. I am wondering if I should formally draw up plans and have copies to pass out if/when needed? What do you think.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), July 26, 1999.

I don't forsee it as being as bad as The Postman, but if it does, better prepare to have GUNS and lots of ammo stashed. Did you notice in the movie that only the bad guys had the guns? If the power is out for more than 1 month, recovery will take a very long time. There will no doubt be loss of lives from disease and violence and this would have to be dealt with first. Occupations to be in would be the medical field, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, and farming.

-- packingapistol (packingapistol@12gauge.com), July 26, 1999.

On another thread PNG (Paul Gauthier) said

for the record, it is "Peter"

-- vronsky (Vronsky@anna.com), July 26, 1999.

OOPS, (I am prostrate with humiliation). Thanks vronsky; sorry Peter. My spelling is horrible, but I doubt if I can get by with that excuse.

Regarding the Postman scenario: I believe the point of the movie was that the warlord was not overcome by might, but by organization. Theres always someone with a bigger gun, and in order to accept armed conflict, you must be likewise able to set acceptable losses. Only governments can wage war, for only governments can translate your children to acceptable losses.

And what about the itinerant tinkers, the traders/merchants. Wouldnt scattered population centers find some way to trade, to co-operate?

Aside to cant say - Like most of us, I too, have hit the Y2K despair wall. Perhaps that why I am now so tenacious about recovery discussion. Although we as a society, may be ignorant of Y2K, I still believe that we are neither dumb nor evil. I believe we will see the best in most of us. I just have to.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

I'd like to expound a little more on my previous comment about the striking of children by their parents. My wife and I have raised four good ones without corporal punishment. But it wasn't until I read some of Dr. Ann Miller's works that it occured to me that this was a vital issue. Obviously I cannot do her work justice on this thread. Furthermore, social scientists are everywhere given very little credence. Ms. Miller is German and she documented the prevailing social patterns in Germany in the time between 1890 and 1920 when the leaders and followers of Nazism were born. That pattern, praised and extolled by the writers of the day, was for the father to be the absolute ruler of the home. Children were not encouraged to express themselves, feel freedom to explore, or do anything other than to obey. Corporal punishment by the father was to begin at an early age and be so severe that after a while it need not be repeated because "just a look" from the father would have the desired effect.

The results of this practice...the results of all corporal punishment of the helpless is the following: fear/terror/insecurity...absolute allegiance to authority...repressed anger/rage. This anger and rage is then directed by the "authority" against the "scapegoat". The scapegoat can be anyone who is identifiably different from the peer (psychologically damaged) group. Hitler was a perfect example of this upbringing, but it was so commonplace in Germany to raise children in this fashion that the holocaust was not only possible but eagerly supported by so many Germans.

Children raised with the fear of punishment become withdrawn, closed, afraid. They do not develop the sense of wonder, of exploration, of curiosity and respect for others who differ...for the world around them. They are most comfortable living within a rigid creed which establishes for them the boundaries they are fearful of crossing. If all our children could be raised with guidance and love...allowed to "experience" w/o condemnation then the wicked me with their weapons will not be able to dominate, because they will never establsih "authority".

-- Sand Mueller (smueller@azalea.net), July 26, 1999.

Sand, in my heart, I want to agree with you and Dr. Miller. I was raised in a home of German ethnic background with two older brothers (no girls). We were disciplined with the board of education, and that concept was perpetuated by me upon my three sons. As I got older and hopefully wiser, I realized that a less hand and more ear is often more effective.

Still, when a family of friends comes to visit, and I sit for two hours watching their two boys, ages 4 and 8, totally ignore their parents pleadings to not go near the water , or dont get in the fresh dirt, or dont meddle in the bedrooms, well, I just want to grab them up and smack the bejesus out of em!

Society is a group who are cognizant of the rights of others. It demands both tolerance and discipline. If you instilled these concepts into your children by non-violence, you are both wise and blessed. And your children are, Im certain, the better for it.

I believe we have digressed from Y2K recovery, but maybe not. Will we actually have to (get to) rebuild our concept of society?

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

When I began preparations for the rollover, it was as if I were preparing to colonize another planet. What things would I need to take with me into the new century to sustain my familiar lifestyle (or close to it) until the eventual recovery. What things would I want to take if there was no recovery and I could never have access to them again.

I have gradually come to believe that "recovery" will not mean the same lifestyle that I now know. However, how my world will change, I do not know. So I have prepared by assembling the tools, building the structures, obtaining the knowledge and practicing the skills to become more self-sufficient. Because I cannot rely on my world to remain relatively constant, I must develop flexibility to be able to respond to anticipated but unpredictable changes.

...and, ya know, I kinda like taking care of my chickens, my garden, physical hard work and the rythms of it. It makes more sense to me and gives me more satisfaction and sense of value than some of the other things I used to do with my time.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), July 26, 1999.

Marsh,

Amen.

Kristi

-- Kristi (securxsys@succeed.net), July 26, 1999.

Lon....very interesting threads. I have only been GI for a few months so i am still very busy preparing. Last night was the first time i have not slept for years. I worry alot that i will not think of every possible scenerio and it will end up costing a loved one their life. My retreat is 150 miles from Kansas City, and i wonder how long before the starving hoards make it that far? I believe community defense will be the most important thing to prepare for after food and water. How do you prepare people for the unimaginal scenerio of civil war, when most are retired and enjoying the "golden years"? Everything else has been rather easy, but i guess we'll all have to fly by the seat of our pants on this one. GOOD LUCK ALL!!

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 26, 1999.

Steve, thanks, I'm finding it to be an interesting discussion also.

As a long-time GI, I would say to you, let go a little. You simply cannot think of every scenmario, nor prepare for every contingency. Go back and read Marsh's post again. He makes a couple of points which are very valid in our context. One, stay flexable. Two, accept that you may not recover the same lifestyle you now enjoy. Many of us, when we started preping, actually moved beyond our normal lifestyle, and have already been enriched because of it, and will not ever be as we were, whatever Y2K portends.

As far as community protection and the starving hoards, well, there's the sand in our grits, so to speak. Are you terrified OF them, or FOR them? Once again, we have prepared to survive as best we can, how have we prepared to recover?

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

Before these threads, I was storing and assuming I would hunker down in my home for however many months, cut ourselves off from the world, until everything was "fixed". I don't like thinking of the possibility of "fixed" never coming. I was trying not to. We've speculated that we could hunt deer (plentyfull in the woods behind my home) and fish (plentyfull in the bay and in the fresh rivers blocks away) if things got "really bad". These are things we've done before,..okay...once.

IF all my neighbors were carted off to some "warming center", not to return, I wonder if I might help myself to anything they left behind I might need to survive? Would I feel vacated neighbors homes are off limits? Clothes, blankets, any left over canned foods (provided said neighbors were removed before they could eat what they had left),coal or propane in their sheds. I suppose in survival mode, I would be tempted to forage through what was left around me. Is this considered looting? -kritter

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), July 26, 1999.

kritter...My retreat has a lot of "summer" lake houses, so i have also been thinking along the lines of "liberating" needed items if absolutely necessary. I would wait at least a year, and defend their property as my own. But after that i would assume they're not returning. Lon....I believe I am more afraid of the idea of having to take another's life to protect my family. My whole career has been devoted to saving lives (firefighter,21 years). It also is very troubling to me to know that i am bailing out on this city when they are going to need me most. BUT MY FAMILY COMES FIRST!!!!

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 26, 1999.

Cannot-say:

You wrote about: "enjoy the more simple things in life, with my son by my side. I am learning to look at the wonders of this world from his eyes. Makes me feel young again. Now if only I could let go of the stress, but it is starting to happen. "

I'm glad the stress is going down for you. I haven't been a programmer for 12 years now, and this is a good time not to be one. My daughter (25) from that stressful time is visiting now, and is playing with my 3-year old daughter who I am able to give much better attention to now.

I hope it gets better and better for you, and remember not to beat yourself up for things that are mostly out of your control -- your son knows what you are giving and wanting to give.

Sand -- thanks for the reminder of Alice Miller, and, since I'm on a second fatherhood (and had to apologize to the first daughter for the few years of spanking I did way back when) I'm the one pushing for intelligence replacing violence in parenting. It's hard to think of something that works, but just try to think of how to get yourself a NEW conscience after basically beating up a small helpless person.

Everybody unwind a bit! (and I'll try to, too.) Probably no rampaging hordes of our fellow citizens surrounding your house like a bad horror movie. Just towns full of neighbors muddling through. Of course, GN pegged it early on -- location, location, location. Small towns infinitely better off. No -- don't go organize everyone now, but just make a few connections you trust to build on later. Lie low, get in shape, save your energy, etc. etc.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), July 26, 1999.

We must have all followed thought patterns along similar lines as we began to prepare. I, too, once thought that if I was inconspicuous, and ate my rice and beans without any outward show, then perhaps my neighbors would quietly move or drift away to help centers, or what ever.

But then I began to think about the depression of the thirties. Not what caused it, or how bad it was, but rather, how people reacted to it. Some did find government help programs, so almost didnt notice it, and many, many others moved to family centers. My mother-in-laws family of seven kids all moved back to the farm. (and got by) THEN I got the message; my neighbors arent moving to the city, their kin- folks are coming HERE.

So how do I begin to cope with this revelation? I have categorically ruled out fighting to protect my food, and I know, as do we all, that I cant feed everyone and their dog.

If I cant kill em and I cant feed em, that means I gotta LIVE with em.

I figure that means someone (even I, perhaps) will have to organize them, educate them, secure their loyalty to the group, and help them to become productive again, as soon as possible. This plays out in my scenario, whether its a 10 or a 4.

So I say it to you all, again. We each have said we are prepared kill to protect our family, but if it comes to it, will we be prepared to LEAD and LIVE through hard circumstances to see that our family survives?

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

One of the things I didn't mention in my post was how hard it is to raise children w/o the rod. I don't want to claim anything about myself, though I don't mind giving my wife kudos. She made the decision to lower our combined income by 75% (to $10,000/yr in the early 80's) and stay home with the children. We lived on the beach in Mexico...no tv. It made a big difference. If y2k is a 9 everyone will have the opportunity to focus on their children and it will go a lot better than in today's rat race.

-- Sand Mueller (smueller@azalea.net), July 26, 1999.

Maybe you all should go rent a movie called "a boy and his dog", it's old ,written by Harlen Ellision. Could be a wakeup call for all of us.

-- Daryll (twinck@wfeca.net), July 26, 1999.

Well, good grief, Sand. If I'd been reared on a beach in Mexico, I'd never have gotten a spanking either. They wouldn't have been able to catch me long enough! :)

Seriously, I greatly respect anyone who can rear their children gently. I am greatly blessed to have a son with Down Syndrome. He has taught me a great deal about life. He is a constant testimony to gentleness, compassion, understanding, patience and courage. He is the light of my life, and quite often a mischevious skunk. I love him very much.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

Lon ---- seeing that you seem to be the moderator on this thread. We are such a soft people, we have let our government and or employer, and our family take care of us all too long. We are not strong, we have no idea of what it means to be strong. We a cry babies, all we do is want, at all age groups, and from the homeless to the CEO. Check out this fact for yourself, --- How many people do you know who are on an antideppresent. How manny people are dependent on their antidepressent. Check out the Pharmacetical Companies, and see the amount of antidepressents they are selling. It will completely blow your mind. And these are the good times. There is food all around. Safe roof over their head. I could go on and on, but the bottom line is, these are good time, and an incredible precentage of people are depressed and are on antidepressents. My God, what is going to happen to these people if this Y2K thing turns ugly. People are so used to getting what they want, and they have been used to this their whole lifetime. We have "No Idea" what will happen if it turns ugly, "NO IDEA" at all, its a complete wild card. WE CAN ONLY PREPARE.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), July 26, 1999.

thinkIcan - I'm not a moderator here. I just started theis mess, and feel constrained to show my ignorance on a regular basis.

I just attended my wife's family reunion, last week. Kinda sad, every body getting pretty old. Mostly dry-land farm folks from the Texas panhandle. But you know what, they sat and talked of hard work, no money, no TV, old tractors and older automobiles. Duststorms and killing winters, and the time the damn bug got it all. But I could tell, THOSE were the good times for them. By the way, they had a grand assortment of medical malidies (which I heard PLENTY about), but not a single one of them has ever taken anti-depressants.

Perhaps, if good times make us weak, will tough times make us strong?

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 26, 1999.

Come on. Daryll. Losen up those fingers and tell us about the movie. (You know you want to).

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 27, 1999.

thinkIcan,

Sorry, I didn't mean to lightly brush off your comment. I am saddened by your perseption of people today, but I am even more saddened by the fact that I have felt exactly the same.

Fortunately, generalizations never seem to work out. We can no more say we are all weak, or we are all selfish, than we can say we are all strong or good or beautiful. Y2K will indeed test our mettle, and some will fail. But some will rise above even their own vision of themselves. Some will indeed become leaders; some will help strangers, and some will prosper dispite our weaknesses.

We tend to dwell on the down side of the "human element" of y2k. But this forum is glaring evidence of the up-side, as well.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 27, 1999.

As a nation we have no idea what a desparate man will do. Some of us have a slight idea, but it is on an intellectual level, as a nation no idea at all. That is part of what I call the wild card. You can't plan for that, its completely unknown.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), July 27, 1999.

thinkIcan-

Don't you see that's my point exactly. I MUST plan for the wild card. If I'm to stay in my location, I cannot afford to let my neighbor's children go hungry. I cannot afford to let them suffer from dysentery, or cholera, or pneumonia. As you say, we have no idea what a desperate man will do, and a man whose child is dying is indeed desperate.

To survive, I must plan to survive in some form of society. I have a cistern and a well, but I have six extra 30 gallon drums for others. By the time I have shown six neighbors how to make cisterns out of them, I believe there will be make-shift cisterns everywhere. By the time I share my food, and demonstrate my willingness to help with gardening, I believe there will be others with extra supplies and expertise.

Sound like the sermon on the mount? Loaves and fishes? Well. maybe, but I am beginning to realize that for me, I will have to plan on recovery within my community, whatever that may turn out to entail.

(Whew, somebody pass the plate, I'm about preached out tonight.)

Thanks to all of you who have shaken my old brain around today. I have enjoyed it, and I appologize if I have become arrogant or unseemingly intellegent in my own sight. It has been a long day, and I'll quit soon, but please continue. We are in the end game now, and the thoughts of each of you are of great value to us all.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 27, 1999.

Beg to report, the Germans didn't invent the rigidly patriarchal family. That institution was endemic in Ireland in the 19th century, and likely earlier. But its origins lie in prehistory.

This situation is explored by Riane Eisler, in The Chalice and the Blade: Our History, Our Future. A couple of comments on it from the amazon.com 'review' section:

Isabelle Allende, author of The House of the Spirits: "Some books are like revelations, they open the spirit to unimaginable possibilities. The Chalice and the Blade is one of those magnificent key books that can transform us and...initiate fundamental changes in the world. With the most passionate eloquence, Riane Eisler proves that the dream of peace is not an impossible utopia." Ashley Montagu: "The most important book since Charles Darwin's Origin of Species...I have never before praised a book so highly...Everyone...should have the opportunity to read it."

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), July 27, 1999.

I just started to read these threads tonite. So much for assumptions. From the title of the first, I had assumed let's get on with it was a polly flame insinuating that Y2K is over. I stand corrected. After reading all three I want to thank everyone for posting their opinions. (note mine is not here, yet) I will also thank all the individuals who kill threads with their flaming comments, for allowing this to continue in a civil manner. It's been a good three threads and I hope it continues. Now, to think more on my contribution to the discussion....

Tonite I have been thinking of how I can help other people. The elderly, the disabled, the unprepared, the children. I don't think the bunker mentality will get the job done folks. I understand it, but I believe we need most everyone to share the incredible load if TSHTF. We need the elderly for their wisdom. We need the children for the future. I believe we should posess the compassion it takes to help the disabled. There is no need to pay a polly back for not preparing. They can work the feilds too. There will be ups and downs. Tense moments of wanderers/looters discovering the abode. God will just have to give me the wisdom and courage to make the right decisions in those moments. I believe with the help of our neighbors and some sincere hard work we can make it through this time.

What if TSdon'tHTF? Half the world is hungry folks. It truly could be an abundant time for charities.

Thanks Lon.

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), July 27, 1999.

R Wright,

Thanks for joining us (even if you are a little late). I guess I could have named the threads better, but they have somewhat defined themselves in the telling. I actually did not know where we were heading when we started, but the entire exercise has helped me, at least, to better form my post-y2k scenario. As I said in my rather emotional posts last night, I have determined that I can not kill my neighbors, I cannot feed them all, and I cannot helplessly watch them sicken or die. Therefore, I must plan to help them become a productive and cohesive community as rapidly as possible.

Now please dont misunderstand. I consider myself as a compassionate man, but this decision is NOT based on compassion. Neither is it based on fear, nor dread, nor nightmares, nor good intentions. Its simply the safest plan to see my family through the tough times soon to be upon us, whatever they may shape up to be.

I have spoken of leadership and organization. Now, if we indeed see the 10+ scenario, there may be armed militia/community protection groups. But if we see a 5-6, wont we still need to help our neighbors? Wont there be a need for someone to organize a trip to the market if we have fuel shortages/rationing? Wont somebody feel the need to regularly check in on the elderly, especially if its very hot or very cold, and if we have persistent blackouts or brownouts? Wont anyone try to revive the victory gardens.

As a long-time small businessman, Im starting to think about how I might help people get employed again. If big corporate business goes down on one knee, opportunities may abound for the entrepreneurial sprit to be reborn.

Again, I am a long-time GI, and Ive been fortunate to have the resources to make deep preparations and contingency plans. I still see the possibility for societal chaos, and will further my planning for such. But, I am also beggining to see the possibility for something else; for recovery.

I am disappointed that more people who believe in the low end of the scale have not shared ideas with us here. Maybe, I am just fooling myself with rhetoric. Maybe the light I see at the end of the tunnel is a freight train after all.

My thanks again to you all, posters and lurkers alike.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.nte), July 27, 1999.

Lon,

I feel much sadness in your last post. I hope that I am wrong in my feeling. I guess from my message last night, you could have guess that I was having a bad Y2K day/night. But hey, today is another day.

I am making a promise to myself this very instant, and one that I hope you and others will make with me. I promise to TRY to think about positive outcomes, how I can contribute to the positive outcome to everyone around me.

I, just like you and many others, do not think that I would kill anyone for asking for food. I am not sure that I will always be able to supply it, but hey asking is just a question. They may not like the answer. However, I will not just let someone come into my home and take from me and mine. I draw the line there.

The light that you are seeing could be the end or it could be the train. What you see depends upon what you WANT to see. I want to see good, and am starting to concentrate my thoughts/preps on providing a positive outcome to all around me that I can, however few that may be.

I guess in short what I am trying to say, is that it depends upon the way you look at the situation. I know there will be problems, and a LOT of problems, but we must get past that and go beyond these fears to embrace what the future holds for us.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), July 27, 1999.