Matrix of Potential y2k Failures as Posted on the State of CA Web Site

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Here is the link from the State of California web site:

Matrix of y2k Potential Failures

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 26, 1999

Answers

Ray,

No,no,no,it won't happen.Please don't let it happen,please.

I'll be a good girl & pay my taxes.Oh,please.

Seriously,thanks for the link.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), July 26, 1999.


Ray,

A rather Humbling mixture of posibilities.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), July 26, 1999.


Wow, great link. Just when I thought I was being too gloomy, a site comes along that makes me feel that I've been a wide-eyed optimist. Funny that the feds haven't being saying those things. Funny. Ha. Ha.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 26, 1999.

A very interesting site, but please read the the first sentence of the METHODOLOGY section.

"Methodology This matrix does not represent empirical data, and as such should not be used to predict actual Y2K impacts."

There are a number of categories listed that I know little about, and on reading these I could see a real threat to society in a large number of areas. But then I came to the section on the power industry in which I do have some expertise, and I just about burst out laughing. The issues were so exagerated that whoever drwe up the list has no idea of the actual operational side of power generation, transmission and distribution. If they can get this section so wrong, then how wrong are they with the rest of the matrix?

Have another look at the way in which the matrix is worked out: "Matrix Headings Category - Represents a general area of potential problems Potential Problem - Specifies a particular consequence resulting from a computer failure Potential Impacts - Identifies potential disasters or emergency response problems Interested Agencies - Agencies likely to have a primary interest"

The categories are well laid out and cover most of the basic services that we require. But then it lists "Potenetial Problems", not actual problems that would occur, but only potential problems that may occur, and it is right here that the list starts to go wrong. Then it goes on as if these potential problems are actual problems and comes up with a list of "Potential Impacts". Once again, the matrix does not say that if such and such a problem does occur then this will be the impact. Rather it says this MAY be an impact.

Taking this methodology and putting it into every day life (non Y2K), consider the category of "Driving on the Freeway".

The Potential Problems are: 1. Your car may suffer a flat tyre. 2. Your car may run out of fuel.

The potential Impacts are: 1. i) You may lose control and roll ii) You may swerve into another car 2. i) You may be rear ended by another car.

As everyone experiences a flat tyre, or runs out of fuel at some stage of their life we can assume from this that WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

However just like the Y2K matrix, There is another possibility, and that is that there will be few serious problems, and even if there are prolems, then there is another potential impact that is not mentioned, and it is the more likely impact. Nothing serious will happen.

I would not attempt to say that the rollover will free of all issues, and I know that some areas will be hit harder than others, but when information is presented in a format where some out it is known to be way out of line, then it does make people think that maybe it is all out of line. It would be far better for such an agency in preparing a list like this to ask the operations staff in each field what the problems are likely to be, and what impacts are likely, rather than assume the worst in every instance.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), July 26, 1999.


Malcolm, do you think the state of California is as good at their remediation efforts as they are at preparing their "Matrix of Potential y2k Failures?

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 26, 1999.



Ray,

You ask "Malcolm, do you think the state of California is as good at their remediation efforts as they are at preparing their "Matrix of Potential y2k Failures?"

Good point, one I can't answer. I wonder how much time they are spending on the real issues. Perhaps someone who is involved in a utility sector in California can answer this one.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), July 26, 1999.


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