From the Naval War College site, hotlinked in the thread beginning with ***. Must be my quirky mood today but I am encouraged by this evidence of strong intellgence, humor and "finger-on-the-pulse" of Internet and other public mutterings. (Bear in mind the descriptors refer to FOREIGN scenarios.)

"Run of the 'Mille'" refers to the Best Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be nothing more than a lengthy (i.e., stretching over most of 1999 and deep into 2000) series of discrete and episodic network failures, whereas the "systems" in the notional country prove themselves to be relatively robust. By systems, we mean not only network systems, but also economic, political, and social systems. Although this is the null hypothesis regarding Y2K, we call it "Run of the 'Mille'" (referring to millennium) because the baseline case will therefore become the combination of whatever "millennial mania" occurs in conjunction with the date change and the inevitable hype and hoopla surrounding even a non-existent Y2K event.

"Humans 1, Computers 0" refers to the Next Best Case Scenario is which Y2K turns out to be both widespread and sustained (meaning a broad, interrelated pattern of network failures whose onset is centered on or about 1 January 2000), but systems within any notional country nonetheless prove themselves to be relatively robust. The scenario name derives from the Nietzschean notion that "that which does not kill us, makes us stronger," here meaning that humanity comes out on the far side of this experience with a renewed confidence regarding its ability to weather periods of significant instability caused by information technology.

"Houston, We Have a Problem" refers to the Next Worst Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be a lengthy series of discrete and episodic network failures that nonetheless create numerous cascading failures throughout a notional country's systems which turn out to be far less robust than expected. The scenario name derives from the famous statement offered by a NASA astronaut commander on the Apollo 13 mission to the moon regarding what at first appeared to be a rather small and isolated glitch in the ship's power system, but which later created a cascading set of failures that ultimately derailed the mission and almost caused a catastrophic loss of life.

"Y2 KO!" refers to the Worst Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be both widespread and sustained and any notional country's systems turn out to be more vulnerable than realized. The scenario name derives from the boxing term, "knockout," or "KO," here meaning that the country is damaged or discombobulated to the extent that it loses the capacity for normal functioning. This dire situation could be considered akin to what some define as a "failed state," such as Somalia or Haiti in the early 1990s, when US and/or UN military forces intervened in what were described as Complex Humanitarian Emergency missions.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 24, 1999

Answers

Old Git,

Good post. I really like the US Naval War College treatment of this. For me, the situation is going to start with "Houston, we have a problem" and then slowly degrade over a period of weeks into "Y2 KO" in vital areas. I don't know which areas will be most affected, but of course anything in the Iron Triangle will hasten us onto the canvas. Remember that old prediction, "dance like a butterfly, sting like a bee." We all know that bee stings can bring you down, eventually.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 24, 1999.

Complex Humanitarian Emergency missions. There we have it. Euphemize before eulogize.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 24, 1999.

What a phrase... "that which does not kill us, makes us stronger."

*Sigh*

Think HAZMAT... et. al.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 24, 1999.

how does scurvy make anyone stronger?

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), July 24, 1999.

Year 2-Oh-Uh-Oh

-- A (A@AisA.com), July 26, 1999.