First, let's deal with the Russian's Y2K problems. I agree they are real. However, don't forget that the Russians have some of the finest computer programmers in the world, and the finest (with all due respect to all the folks out there) aren't really necessary to do remediation. Next, the Russians are not going to put available remediation talent on non-defense efforts. Mitigating y2k effects on the general population or economy? - the leadership just doesn't care. The have never cared about the living conditions of the peasants since before the Czar and they don't now. And, unlike the competition-driven USA remediation marketplace, they do have the capacity and will to focus sufficient remediation efforts on the strategic rocket forces to make them good enough. And good enough is all it takes.

The timing is wrong for a couple of other reasons.

Yes - the Sino/Soviet alliance is forming, but its not sufficiently formed for a new military body to act in a coordinated, competent and dependable manner. Dont confuse a strategic trend to imply the existence of a military command structure. This stuff takes time, lots of it, and no military bureaucracy is going to war like a blue-light special impulse buy. Remember, too, that for every day they delay, they get stronger while we get weaker. In spite of our military dispersion, comparatively speaking its still a bad bet. And on this kind of crap shoot, you dont want even odds - you want much, much better odds.

Besides, the harvest is still not in yet, and wont be even completely in September. Not only that, but there would be another opportunity for them to buy grains on the world market, probably with U.S.-taxpayer backed credit from American farmers this year. I know Russian crop failures have been exaggerated, but it didnt come to light until after they received the grain shipments. Theyll get more, too. It just wont be as easy as the last time.

U.S. Y2K is the last timing element. The most serious disruptions domestically, with some spectacular exceptions, will not be apparent until several quarters into 2000. Im not saying there wont be refinery explosions, etc. What I am saying is that the full effects of these disruptions will not peak concertedly until several months. Next, the cumulative economic effects will not peak until September next year as well. Again, dont confuse the obvious with the severe. A refinery explosion will be great news, but effects wont peak until later. The economic shock will be immediate, but the cumulative bankruptcies, unemployment and social disruptions will not peak until the fall. Thats when the U.S. will be at its weakest point. Infrastructure problems, international supply problems, social services problems and an election, all rolled up into one big mess. And it wont be just us, it will be the same for our allies, too.

Thats when Id have to push the button, if I were them. Fall next year 2000 will be a much, much greater risk for us than this fall. Waiting longer wont help anymore. As big a mess as y2k will be, this country (once its really stirred up) has demonstrated it can rise to meet national goals AS LONG AS WERE LEFT ALONE TO DO SO. The problem then, as now, will be having the time to start getting things put back together. Things will not go back the way they were, but we can get operational again. So, from the Sino/Soviet viewpoint, waiting is an absolute necessity. Sure well have some terrorist events. But terrorist events do not a first, fatal strike make. Every year past 2000, and the balance starts going the wrong way for them again.

-- Woodpile (whynot@zog.net), July 24, 1999

Answers

Russia's y2k problems are real. They have less than one third remediated much less tested and integrated. I will post an article just recently released that shows they are way behind in remediating their military systems. Furthermore, I still haven't found out if Russia uses the GPS. GPS is rolling over in AUG. and then we don't know if the GPS is y2k compliant. Does Russia have new GPS receivers as our military does?

I will accept your statement that Russia has great programmers and that they are working on their military systems to the neglect of their non-military needs. They have pirated software, source code and embedded systems. Can their programmers deal with this? Is there enough time even if they could? There is no evidennce that they are working on their silo missile systems. I am sure they have plenty of nukes y2k ready but is their air force and navy compliant? What concerns me also is their non-military systems. Are their refineries compliant, their chemical plants, their banks, their water and sewage systems, their transportation systems, their fuel lines systems, and what about their nuclear plants? I agree that they don't care about their people but they need a working infrastructure. For them to ignore their infrastructure and wait another 12 months doesn't make sense to me. You will have to offer me some proof that they can use their rocket forces past the 1-1 rollover for me to believe your theory and reject Nyquist although the logic of what you say makes sense. I just need some evidence that Russian programmers have remediated their systems.

I tend to agree with you that Russia and China need time to work out an agreement. I don't believe Russia and China can ever trust each other. But we don't know their strategy. They could decide to make a deal: China gets SE Asia and the pacific basin and Russia gets Europe. To do this they must take out the U.S. military. Now if y2k is concern for both of these countries, then they are forced to work out a agreement soon. The evidence is that Chinese and Russian diplomats and high officials have been flying back and forth in high level negotiations. The truth is that China is now ready to take Taiwan and N.Korea has a million troops on the DMZ border (JCOS Shelton). Iraq is also making noises. The terrorists are in waiting. Russian commandos and weapons are already here according to Lunev. According to Nyquist, our CIA is finally achieving some successes in dismantling some of the Russian apparatus in this country. This in itself has to move Russia's timetable up. The CIA, asleep for so long, believing communism was dead, and led by Democrats, is now waking up, realizing that the Bear was not dead but only hiding. As for the longer they wait, the weaker we get. That is changing in the intelligence community and in congress.

While they may wait to stockpile more grain they have already stockpiled tons of grain, oil, gold, and fur. This years crop will be in by October.

I believe that when Russia decides to attack, one of the first things they will do is explode an EMP bomb and fry our electronics. At that point we will be at our weakest. This will be especially so if our military responds to the threats overseas and deploys its military.

If they could wait past the rollover and hit us then, that would be the best time. But this assumes that their military and mission critical infrastructure systems are y2k ready. I don't believe it is or will be. Sorry woodpile...its the last quarter of 99 or never.

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Yahoo! July 20, 1999

Russia's Northern Fleet, which bristles with nuclear weapons, lacks funds to deal with the millennium bug, says Bellona environmental, a Norwegian group. Bellona said the fleet's warning systems are especially vulnerable, which could lead computers to make false reports of missile attacks.

In 1995, Russia was on the verge of launching a nuclear counterstrike when it mistook a harmless weather rocket fired from Norway for a NATO missile.

The Northern Fleet is based on the Kola Peninsula of northwestern Russia, and operates 40 nuclear-powered submarines and three nuclear surface ships, according to Bellona, which specializes in studying the region.

``The authorities are trying to give the impression that they are doing something in hopes of calming the population. Unfortunately, Russia is far behind the West in solving this problem,'' Bellona researcher Igor Kudrik was quoted as telling the Norwegian news agency NTB.

Russia has acknowledged that most of the nation's vital computer systems probably will not be ready for 2000.

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-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 24, 1999.

Sounds reasonable, Woodpile. But see below.

What can you disclose of your c.v.?

Have you factored in the very powerful Russian "Mafia"? These folks have no doctrinal or political affiliations other than to their own status and comfort level. I submit that this element is novel in Russia, and changes the familiar equations of power and decision- making there.

A radioactive wasteland separating cities of rubble can hardly seem a welcome outcome to these people.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), July 24, 1999.

Tom: I'm working on a response. I appreciate your, and the other's criticism very much. I'll get a reprise out later today. Just can't do it now. I really need your counterpoint, some other folks are expecting an "opinion" from me Tuesday. Somehow, I've ended up as the researcher/analysist for a small audience. Probably by default, the others just can't put the time in that I can. Gotta go - more stuff to carry to the basement from Costco.

-- Woodpile (whynot@zog.net), July 24, 1999.

Woodpile, have you considered that the US and Russia might be planning a double cross against the Chinese? The US has been making bank with cheap goods and payola from China. Russia and the US have been making bank selling China military secrets/hardware. Maybe the Chinese have been played for suckers? Maybe Washington and Moscow are figuring to blow China off the map before Y2K and live happily ever after.

-- screwfly (screwfly@hotmail.com), August 14, 1999.

I got to go with BB on this one. The Russians just don't have the luxury of waiting another year. It will be this fall or not at all.

The GPS rollover is going to cripple us militarily and the Russians know it. So do the Chinese. The pentagon last year was being fairly open about the potential problems with defensive and offensive weapons systems and I vaguely recall the number 12000 being bandied about as the tatal weapons systems affected. Then right around the first of the year the door was slammed at the pentagon and information from there since then could more accurately be called misinformation. I believe it is all because someone finally woke up and realized we could be sitting ducks from gps rollover till the first of the year for a Russian first strike. the exact nature of your malfuntions and the degree of severity is not info you would want the Russians to have on which to plan their attack or make the decision to launch one. The clincher for me was reading that the Russians have pulled 180 or so of their MIG-29's off line and are outfitting them with super long range fuel tanks which give them 18000 kilometers reach. Russia has pretty much scrapped it's strategic bomber fleet and the survivability of what remains is marginal at best. However 180 MIG-29 fighter bombers carrying four warheads each could come in supersonic ten feet off the water and a large percentage of them could fight their way through whatever defense we cobbled together on short notice. If only 50% of them got through that is 200 warheads hitting American soil. If they were a follow on attack to a ballistic missile launch they would be practically unscathed in egress and have free reign over our remaining cities.

I think the Russians have thought all this out very carefully and planned it out to a T. This fall is the time, not next year.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), August 14, 1999.

There you go again, Nikoli!:> Just when I recovered from the other thread about the GPS, you go and expound on it in this thread. Whew! I'm just going to have to go out and recheck my bug out equipment. Thanks for your insight!

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), August 14, 1999.