***FIRST DRAFT NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S FINAL REPORT RE Y2K INTL. SECURITY DIMENSION PROJECT

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Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project, Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Project Director

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/y2krep.html

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 23, 1999

Answers

Sorry, let's try this again. Here's the SUMMARY of the Final Report. The Final Report is due today, but hasn't been posted. However, the summary itself is of great intrest:

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2kproj.htm

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 23, 1999.


Hotlinks...

Naval War College

http:// www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm

Mirror site by Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Project Director

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/ y2ksite.htm

Click here to see the first draft of our project's Final Report, which will be edited on a regular basis as we near hard-copy publication sometime in August...

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/ y2krep.html

Most Recent Project Summary (Updated 7/15/99)

http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/ y2kproj.htm



-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 23, 1999.


Thanks for sorting me out, Diane!

Although the summary refers only to international scenarios adn does not include the US, the following terms could very well be the same for domestic use. The explanation for the first term, "Mania," is VERY interestng. There is more information at the site.

"Mania" refers to the phase during which public awareness, anxiety, and preparation for Y2K accelerates dramatically. For most countries, this will be across the summer and/or fall of 1999.

"Countdown" refers to last few weeks of 1999, when individual and group preparation for the Y2K and associated millennial date-change events will take on a life of its own.

"Onset" refers to probably no more than the first week of January 2000, but is primarily concentrated on the 31 December 1999 (Friday) through 3 January 2000 (Monday) timeframe.

"Unfolding" refers to the indeterminate length of time (depending primary on a country's level of IT) that will have to pass before the leaders of individual countries can ascertain the extent of Y2K-induced network failures they face.

"Peak" refers to period during which a country experiences the maximum impact of its Y2K-induced network failures and whatever side-effects those failures may create throughout the economy, society, and political arena.

"Exit Point" refers to either an apparent or a self-declared end to the systemic Y2K event and any associated /triggered crises.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 23, 1999.


It's enough to boggle the mind and cross the eyes!

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), July 23, 1999.

But "Exit Point" already brayed by brainless chicken and cacaretcha. They're so far ahead of the game, maybe you should notify the war college it's been fixed last year. BWAHAHAHAHAHA

-- memer (memer@memer.memer), July 23, 1999.


A good quote.

Bottom line of Naval War College effort:

Understanding that there is a tremendous gap between the public face many corporations and governments put forward on this issue ("we will have it well in hand") and the private fears and concerns expressed by many information technology experts (ranging from "global recession" to "apocalypse 2000!"), we want to explore this topic in as systematic a fashion as possible. We don't pretend that we'll end up with all the answers, but merely a sensible read on what's possible, how governments and companies are likely to respond across a range of scenarios, and what the USG and DoD should be prepared to undertake in response to Y2K's global unfolding. In short, while we're not interested in unduly hyping the Y2K situation, we are interested in exploring the "dark side" potentials because, frankly, that's what we get paid to do as a research organization that serves the U.S. military.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 23, 1999.


Good update OG. August should be an interesting month as various entities go "on the record" for various reasons.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), July 23, 1999.

A long and interesting read. One of the best scientific looks at Y2K I've seen.

Bob P

-- Bob P (bobbyp42@aol.com), July 23, 1999.


After reading it carefully, it seems to me the subtitle of the report should be: Machiavelli looks at y2k.

Robert Waldrop

Printable flyers for distribution during y2k disruptions

-- robert waldrop (rmwj@soonernet.com), July 24, 1999.


Thanks for the contributions!!

I thought this was interesting:

"Ice Storm" refers to a widespread and sustained period of Y2K-induced network failures that begins on or about 1 January 2000 and unfolds with great rapidity. This model envisions the onset of the Y2K event as an all-at-once assault that causes serious disruptions throughout a nation's economic system, ultimately disabling most--if not all--essential network infrastructures. In this instance, Y2K turns out to be a highly interrelated sequence of network failures that have a profoundly detrimental impact on the overall functioning of a society. The key question here is, "What is the recovery time?"

(snip) Is this what our illustrious leaders mean by the proverbial 'ice storm'?!

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), July 24, 1999.



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