Curious

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I am making preparations for y2k,but I'm making my preparations based on my vast amount of un-certainty that surrounds this comming event. However, I must say that I am swayed back and forth and back and forth by both sides of the debate. Just when I decide we're in for big trouble, I'll read something by someone who sounds well versed on the subject that says 'bump in the road'. I will continue my preparations but I would like to hear from some calm,cool,collected pollys and doomers as to why they are so certain one way or another.

-- citizen (lost@sea.com), July 22, 1999

Answers

Citizen,

There aren't many calm, cool, collected Pollys around, after you listen to Koskinen. And even Kosky lets some pessimistic info slip through from time to time. And the gloomers have been staring into the eyes of the beast for so long now that it's hard to remain cool about it. If you're preparing, you know as much as anyone does, and will just have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 23, 1999.


It's very simple math. Hundreds of millions of computers (plus +) Tens of billions of embedded systems (plus +) Trillons of lines of code (minus -) inventory (minus -) complicated budgets (minus -) interdependence and dependence on infrastructure components (minus -) not enough programmers (minus -) technicians (minus -) compliant software/hardware (minus -) NOT ENOUGH TIME to fix, but about 10% of the worlds systems = VERY BIG PROBLEM.

Solution? PREPARE

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), July 23, 1999.


It is prudent to be prepared for any type of life-altering situation, be it man-made OR natural disasters.

There was a time not long ago, when most of America had stores of food, fuel and water to get them through a Winter, or to get them through "hard times".

We've had no "hard times" in the past 35 years. Not compared to the generation that suffered through the Great depression and then spilled blood in WWII. We have been spoiled by convenience, technology, wealth and luck.

All it would take is one major nuke plant or chemical disaster to kill thousands. Hundreds die each year from natural disasters that displace personal infrastructures.

You have to admit the future has some scary problems looming in it. From geopolitical events, to economic to social. Turbulence and murkiness are the best adjectives to describe the unsettledness.

Wouldn't it be PRUDENT and WISE to be prepared for WHATEVER eventuality may come knocking on your door?

The pollyannas would have you believe that storing up a year's supply of food, fuel and water is crazy and dangerous. They would much rather have you trust in the government, the system and the technologies that make out modern lazy lifestyles possible.

Well let me ask you, if Bill CLinton or Alan Greenspan asked you to send EVERY dime you had and will ever make to them for safekeeping and investment, would you trust them to provide for your every need, and lay-up a retirement for yourself and an inheritance for your kids?

If not, why trust an infrastructure of JIT inventory, power, water and transportation to provide for your every need? Should we trust them any less?

Use your common sense. Be prudent and wise. Prepare for yourself and family for whatever disruptions could come your way, Y2K or not. You'll sleep better at night knowing that if a Winter storm wreaks havoc on your neighborhood, you will fare all the better, because you are prepared for it.

Simple, no?

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 23, 1999.


citizen,

Botttom line. Anybody making claims of certainty either way are making personal assumptions. Who do you consider qualified to educate you on these personal assumptions? There is your answer.

Polly> I'm spending all my money now. There is no such thing as a rainy day.

Doomer> I'm spending all my money now on preperations for a future event.

You decide. When I heard about Y2K the doomers were attractive. But I knew to look at the 360, so I tried many Y2K sites, looking for diferent perspectives. It's hard to filter the hate from either side. I think this is the most informative Y2K site on the web. Be patient, search archives on topics of interest. Use the links. If you can't find, ask, lot's of help here. If you post an opinion either way, be prepared to catch hell from both sides. You will never get your answer in one thread though. Good luck.

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), July 23, 1999.


Well said, R.Wright, well said.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 23, 1999.


Hi citizen:

I agree with most of the responses to your post; no one agrees on the severity of the possible problem of Y2K, or the social and economic reaction to disaster. I'm a network tech for a state government and my preps will be minimal. On the other hand I've read some legitimate "opposing" arguments. The supposed Y2K implications are very much up in the air right now no matter what anyone tells you. The best advice I can offer is to cover your basics. In other words, have an amount of food, water, and heat (i.e. blankets, generator) that makes you comfortable. Good luck!

-- Passerby (kang@natural.com), July 23, 1999.


It's really simple. You don't have to believe that Y2K will shake out in a really bad way in order to prepare for the case that it might. You don't have to believe that your house will burn down in order to buy house insurance. As Ed Yourdon said (I'll paraphrase) it's not the risk, it's the stakes. If I think I don't need to prepare and I'm wrong, I'm in big trouble. If I think I need to prepare and I'm wrong, then I have some extra equipment and food around. There's much less downside to Y2K preps than there is even in buying house insurance or medical insurance. The money you spent on those types of insurance is gone at year's end. My feeling of how bad things could get vacillates (sp?), but my commitment to preparing never does. I will never go back to a less self sufficient way of living, no matter what happens. It just feels good to have a greater ability to take care of myself and mine, in any case.

-- Bingo (ecsloma@spectra.net), July 23, 1999.

Citizen, Ever read "Richest Man in Babylon"? It is not about greed, just simple money managing techniques. The basic premise is that if you make "10 coins", apply them accordingly: 7 for daily living expenses, 2 to pay outstanding debts (consumer debt, not mortgage) and 1 to save before paying anyone. The last one is key, save 10% of all you earn. In today's terms, the system works and many folks save through IRAs, 401Ks, etc. Why not just redirect your 10% savings into food savings? Once the market direction is clear post-Y2K, simply restart your monetary savings and donate your food to your local food bank?

Not fancy. Not fanatical.

br14

-- br14 (br14@bout.done), July 23, 1999.


citizen,

I don't believe that it is possible for anyone who is truely a polly or a doomer to give a cool, calm reason for their belief.

The reason I say this is because if someone is so certain one way or the other, then theyare not consideringall of the fact or possibilities. The Pollys are refusing to accept that something unforeseen may just happen which will impact somewhere else etc. And the doomers are refusing to accept hat a lot of remediation has taken place, and that a lot of testing has also been carried out, showing that not as many systems are as date sensitive as was first thought.

I believe that I'm somewhere middle of the road. I do not believe that anything too serious is going to happen, but I would also be very suprised if the rollover goes without a hitch. As I have been active in checking and testing various systems at the power facility where I work, I have had first hand experience at locating and evaluating many items of hardware and software. I am not a programmer, although I did study a small amount of computer science many years ago as a student. My area of expertise is power system management and control.

I will watching the rollover with a detached mind. Analysing just what happens, where it happens, and seeing if anything extra needs to be done. I will not be panicking if every power grid in the world collapses, as I already know just what the controllers will be doing to restore power to where its needed. But I will be noting and recording every piece of information that I can get just in case there is some situation that we haven't considered. An remember we will experience any problems some 17 hours ahead of you.

I have not made any additional personal preparations, nor do I intend to, but then it will be mid summer for us. And I live in a rural area where we are already almost self sufficient. The only thing we really need is power to pump water from the well, and I'm convinced that we will still have power.

I uess all this may make me sound uncaring, but that is far from the truth. I only wish that other countries could be as far ahead as NZ in preparing for Y2K. But I do wish you well in your own remediation.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), July 23, 1999.


And I think I need a spell checker in my browser. Sorry for all the typos, I'm not the best at 3:00 in the morning... :-)

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), July 23, 1999.



Curious

Simply put, I am a beleiver in that adage - "Better to not need it and have it, than to need it and not have it".

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), July 23, 1999.


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