Sometimes the numbers just kick ya in the butt

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80% done

75% done

98% done

100% DONE!!!!!

Done what? Done the 'mission critical systems'? That's usually less than 10% of all the systems.

Great. All done (maybe) with less than 10% (at the most) of systems.

Great.

-- Art (artw@lancnews.infi.net), July 22, 1999

Answers

Some thoughts on that term "mission-critical systems":

1) In today's relatively lean corporate environment, would "pointless systems" be tolerated? Generally, if an organization has a system, it has a real need for it. Think of what organs in your body are not "mission-critical" (the list is quite short).

2) Most of the progress in many government agencies at reducing the # of MC systems left to fix (incl. Defense) is being made by reclassifying MC systems as nonessential, rather than actual remediation.

3) No independent verification means "fixing" MC systems with a paper checklist (has already happened) will continue.

4) Believe only bad news from credible and reputable sources that would prefer the news to be good.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 22, 1999.


Seems to me MinnesotaSmith has made some good points here.

1) There may well be a difference between percentage of systems considered critical between public and private sectors. Certainly the government hasn't the same motive to be mean and lean. Additionally, the definition of mission critical is necessarily hazy in government, where the "mission" of entire programs is critical only to a narrow constituency. Ask yourself just how much of what the government does could we do without and be no worse off, and maybe better off (note that this is a very different question than asking what will happen if these activities cease overnight!). Ultimately, the purpose of private sector systems is to increase profits, whereas in government it's to get re-elected.

2) The reclassification game is as much a function of complexity as it is of misreporting. It's not always clear where to draw the line between systems when they interact inextricably. I wouldn't be surprised if 90% or more of the total code in a private concern were critical. I tend to trust private industry declarations of substantial compliance -- they're more familiar with what they do, their mission is clearer, the penalties for being way late are greater. Government is just guesswork.

3) Many of us have been through the process of 'fixing' things by simply checking them off the list. I went into a meeting this morning with a checklist of 25 items to be done on one project, and came out with five left. Amazing progress! All it took was a cost estimate for each item. We had this deadline, see, and as usual we meet our milestones by eliminating features. The product won't be late, nor will it do what was originally envisioned. But it will do everything it needs to do just fine. Some things just aren't that important, they're just nice to have.

4) While I can understand Smith's point here, it is much to easy to misapply. Taken to extremes, it means that *no* good news can be believed, and organizations that started early and assigned the right resources to do the job have *no way* to announce real success. This gets us to one of the fundamental issues this forum deals with -- we know that self-reporting tends to exaggerate progress and gloss over problems and word things very carefully. The underlying reality isn't possible to determine, but that doesn't mean it's ipso facto nonexistent. Good things really are being accomplished, we just don't know how much. Rejecting it all is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 22, 1999.


I think most of us could get by without the uvula.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), July 22, 1999.

Nathan,

"I think most of us could get by without the uvula."

Isn't the uvula a Hawaiian musical instrument?

-- freeman (freeman@cali.com), July 22, 1999.


tonsils appendix gall bladder sex organs hair

-- Amy (leoneamy@aol.com), July 22, 1999.


Freeman,

Glad you restated that uvula. When I first saw that I misread it, or misinterpreted it, and started getting really concerned. What I thought I read, I wouldn't want to get along without. But, since it's only a Hawaian musical instrument, well that's OK then. Course, Cory may feel different about it. Wonder if he thinks getting along without the uvula is no big deal?

Flint,

Lordy, lordy, I love your posts. Now, here's one for you to decode for me, or us. My local electric supplier Conectiv (www.conectiv.com) says they have about 140 systems in their business. They classify only 21 of those (15%) as mission critical. Of those 21 they say they are 96% complete on the fixes as of June 30, 1999. So Flint, how does that wring out here? Are they like a bureaucracy that didn't need or have any strong reason for 85% of their systems? What? Could you help me out? I'm trying to feel better about them with less than 6 months to go, but you know, well......tell me it isn't so Flint!

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 22, 1999.


You can also live without all you arms and legs, but you would need an AWFUL lot help and have to make an AWFUL lot of adjustments. Are the mission critical systems the brains, heart, lungs, digestive system, etc., while the non-mission critical systems are the arms, legs, and sex organs? What happens to the world as we know it, if the infrastructure is missing its arms, legs and sex organs? If you were missing your arms, legs and sex organs, wouldn't that be the end of the world as you know it? I'm not convinced that the non-mission critical systems are just tonsils and adenoids.

-- (dot@dot.dot), July 22, 1999.

Gordon:

All by themselves, those numbers don't give me a warm fuzzy feeling either. But I'm not a utility engineer. I'd certainly love to know what those 140 systems actually do, and how they classify their systems as critical or not. Does noncritical mean they can generate power without them in a pinch? Does it include maintenance systems, or business systems? How many of these 140 systems had date issues at all? Does the remaining remediation affect anything functional? Are they waiting for critical upgrades, or just in no hurry about cosmetic bugs in critical systems (it's possible to have noncritical bugs in critical systems).

These last-minute numbers games are nerve-wracking. If I were you I'd have alternatives to power. In fact, I know the head y2k honcho of my own utility. He can't imagine anything remaining to do that might go wrong and disrupt his power. So he got a generator anyway, because we have no single switch to throw to island us, and apparently there is some local threat from a weirded out grid.

So I don't expect a power loss, but I'm for damn sure not gambling on that when I don't have to. I recommend you do the same.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 22, 1999.


Dotty.........................LOL.......................I can now see clearly how difficult it must be to chose what is mission critical. Conectiv will no doubt not have fixed or tested their sex organs. I guess I better buy a generator, huh Flint?

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 22, 1999.

Flint,

I think you nailed that one solid. Not one single thing I disagree with. I especially liked the anecdote about your friend in the industry. Have heard a number of stories like that, but I can truly say, if Flint tells me that, I can take it to the bank. Don't know if I'll be able to get it back *out* of the bank next January though. Maybe I'll just do that power backup like you mentioned. Yup, that would be my real "money in the bank." Thanks for you thoughts. Really.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 22, 1999.



"...apparently there is some local threat from a weirded out grid."

Interesting that you should say this, Flint. Be aware that this condition has no direct Y2K connection; it is the common state of the grid. It is impossible to predict (via computer simulation) all possible failure combinations of nodes and links. I know; I've done the simulations.There are too many internal variables. You run a simulation and look for "trends". In addition, a stable grid is predicated on the assumption that power flows *through* a given region are relatively constant. Severe, rapidly changing regional power flows can destroy equipment and trip breakers, causing the entire grid to "ring like a bell," resulting in cascading failures. That phrase is not my own, but that of the senior engineer of the planning department of the utility for which I worked. The grid is not as robust as some would have us believe.

-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 22, 1999.


OK Everyone...I have a question....I live in Dallas and I am sure that everyone here has read where Dallas is one of the 2 cities that are y2k ready????....I have also heard that we are on our own grid...If this is true does that mean that we are fine as far as the electric grid (that we will have electricty) and that we should all be fine in the Big D at the roll over?

Just wondering what your opinions are??

-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), July 23, 1999.


Elbow Grease,

"Ring like a bell" huh? I really like that one. Conjures up some good imagery. I was thinking it was like a vibrating spider web, but the bell thing is even better. Now, didn't someone write something about "ask not for whom the bell tolls..........?"

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 23, 1999.


Sure I'd wish Anita and Marma were posting on this thread.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 23, 1999.

Elbow Grease and Gordon,

Your analogy of the grid "Ringing like a bell" is a very apt description of what can occur in the initial stages of a cascading fault.

What happens is as follows: When there is a sever mismatch of power flowing from one area to another over a single link, and that link fails, then the area with the excess generation experiences a high frequency condition, and the receiving area experiences low frequency.

The generators in the area with high frequency rapidly reduce the amount of power that they are generating, but in the process the voltage can spike higher than normal. This can cause light bulbs to pop, motors to trip, etc. It is not a dangerous condition, but can be inconvenient, and everything can be rapidly restored to normal.

However in the receiving are there is not sufficient generationto meet demand, so frequency and voltage will both rapidly fall. Lights will be dim, motors may tripout on overcurrent due to running too slowly, Industry will be forced to shed unnecessary load, and if that is insufficient to obtain equilibrium, then what generation is available will also trip off, resulting in the utility having to adopt black start and restoration procedures.

The good news though is that there are not many areas interconnected with just a single link. most have multiple AC circuits, and as the rollover will occur during winter with low ambient temperatures, these circuits can run overloaded for quite a period of time.

I believe though that the uS does have some areas interconnected with HVDC links (we have one such link here in NZ), and it is these links that may be a cause of concern. we'll just have to wait and see.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), July 23, 1999.



Mary:

Dallas is not on "its own grid." What you have heard, probably, is that Texas--for the most part--can island itself from the national grid.

Your supplier is probably TP&L or Texas Utilities or somesuch.

While most of Texas can disconnect from the grid, parts can't. Parts of East Texas and the Panhandle are those exceptions.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), July 23, 1999.


Mary, I'm from Boston, the "other" y2k-ready city. In fact, that is exremely misleading. It was based on a telephone survey of systems within that city's control. For Boston, that EXCLUDES power generation, water, sewer, public transportation, most of the hospitals, etc. So you need to find out what is really behind the announcement that Dallas is "ready". It might not mean very much.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), July 23, 1999.

Mary:

There is NO national grid. Texas is the only state on the ERCOT grid. The eastern and western grids are totally estranged from us. We don't connect to THEM and they don't connect to US. GEESH!

Yes...Dallas is in fine shape if TXU can pass their September tests. I live west of Dallas, and I worried quite a lot LAST summer, but have watched the progress unfold over a year.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 23, 1999.


A "lean machine" body requires only one lung, one kidney, one eye, one ear, maybe even only one arm. An accountant in today's corporate environment would probaby recommend that those "superfluous" organs/appendages be "surplused". Hey, it'll work OK until you lose some or all of the other ones.

-- A (A@AisA.com), July 23, 1999.

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