After months of boring, juvenile posts and unrelenting name-calling, its time we moved on. Its time we realized that this forum is not about Mr. Decker. Its not about Flint, Big Dog, King of Spain, Doomers, Pollies, me, or you. Its not even about Ed Yourdon. Its about Y2K; its implied causes, and its impending events.

At one time this was a forum of reports. Information was gleaned from various sources or reiterated news. It was a data base for like-minded people to share information and ask questions. But we evolved; we changed. We are no longer a like-minded group, and we have very little new information to share. Therefore, we have become somewhat a forum of OPINION.

I am a long-time preper. But I still appreciate the well-thought-out posts by Mr. Decker, and others. I take them as opinion and weigh them accordingly. They still do make me stop and think. Like most of us here, my view of Y2K has changed over the past year, and will change over the next six months. Like most here, Ive made mistakes. Ive bought pie-in-the-sky and paid T-bone prices. Ive fallen on my face occasionally, and landed on my feet occasionally. As Ive gotten older, I have realized that more things in life are recoverable, but also that its just foolish not to use the information at hand. If it looks like rain, Ill seek shelter.

Im glad Ed Yourdon has returned to the forum, and Im equally glad that others have not left. But Ed tweaked my interest with his comments about life, post Y2K.

So, here's my challenge. On this one thread, make me think. Give me your OPINION. We all smell a change in the air; what will it entail? Will we have a Federal Government - will we be self-governing townships? Who will be our leaders, and what will make them so - foresight, itellegence, charisma, armament, chance? Will our needs outweigh our compassion? Will our fears overcome our sense of justice? How will we change, or will we indeed change at all? Feed me some food for thought. But please, please dont tell me what you think of anyone else, or their opinion.

And, oh yeah, keep it brief. :)

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999

Answers

FWIW,

Life will change around the rollover, without a doubt. Now as to the degree of change, that is a different subject. My personal belief is that the severity of change is determined by one key element; electricity. If the power stays on and there are no ripples through the grid, things will be "almost normal". If power drops out and goes on and off for weeks/months at a time, life will be very different, and I don't think we will ever really pull back to "normalcy" for a long time. If power goes off and stays off for an extended period of time, i.e., three weeks or longer, then all bets are off.

Power is the keystone, IMHO...

gettin' a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 22, 1999.

I do not know. I have prepared for the very worst possible while still being ready for any scenario - light of heavy.

This is the only method I am aware of when there are so many unknowns.

That is a powerful challenge, so much is unknown. Keep an open view, be as prepared as possible for all possibilities sh

-- Living in (THE@REAL.WORLD), July 22, 1999.

Dog,

I agree, power is the determining factor as to how bad it will get. But, I guess what I'm asking is how will it affect us if it get bad, or semi-bad? when will we fear our neighbors, or when will we attempt to help them? when will we feel somewhat safe, and strive for recovery, or when will we try our best to become invisible? I hope someone has clearer thoughts about this than I, or this will be an awfully short thread!

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

You know you are asking people "what if", and a lot on this forum have "contingency scenarios" that are a LOT different than others. Some on this forum, who will remain nameless, will be hunkered down in a bunker in BFE with everything to support life, in a self- contained manner. The opposite end of the spectrum are the three day preps, and will be away from home on 010100. I am somewhat in the middle of these two extremes, and I think a lot of the posters are also.

I feel blessed that I have a lot of neighbors who GI, and are genuinely nice people. I don't think the people in my area are going to go on "rape, pillage, murder" sprees if it turns out bad. I feel the neighborhood will pull together in times of adversity.

I believe in human compassion, as rare as it seems nowadays. Here in NM, people will stop and help someone who needs it. I do not think that will change. If TEOTWAWKI, it may become strained and more reserved, but it will still exist.

watchin' the boy eat...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 22, 1999.

Lon,

I cannot even begin to answer the questions about whether or not the government will be around. I honestly think that it will survive, but the extent of the damage is the true unknown. One thing that I do hold hope in, is that if things are real bad, people like the ones I have read here for the many months that I have been here should be the ones which provide leadership in their small areas. For the most part, we have had the time to ponder these thoughts. We should be the ones to be offering help and guidance during these times. I am not thinking of running for office or anything, but about organizing the neighbors to patrol our own areas and make sure things are fine. We are the ones who have spent countless hours thinking about such things. We should be making the plans in our heads, if not on paper, as to how to secure our own areas. We should be the ones that are making lists of who the doctors are in our areas.

I guess the point that I am making is.... if WE do not take the lead, but sit by until someone else does something... anything... then we are just like the rest of the sheeple... oops I mean people... only a little more supplied than most.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), July 22, 1999.

Will we have a Federal Government? 25/45% less politicians; Military/ Police Rule 50%. -- Self-governing townships? Only temporary, if at all; local or indivdual law CANNOT BE PERMITTED by people who want world control. -- Our leaders? Clowns, as usual. - Needs outweigh our compassion? No, but the will to survive may cause people to look the other way. -- Fears overcome our sense of justice? Justice practially does not exist now! -- How will we change? Very few will learn a thing. Most will be looking for quick soultions willing to sacrifice any constitution, moral or tradition to get the burgerkings and trinket-factories back open...A large FEW will separate from this stupid, superficial economy/plastic-product society (small farms/ indpendent, self-reliant communities), but I am afraid that over time, the US/Global marxist-powers will force and sweep them back in to a socialist society, no different than china (squash the smart and independent). Corporate business will merge and dominate.NOTE: this would take a 4+ or more on the y2k scale of 1-10 to happen. Power grids do have a MAJOR function in survival, but it's the economy stupid, that will rule the future of human events.

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), July 22, 1999.

No one knows what is going to happen. Predictions of the experts led us to react and now I am wondering if we haven't put too much of our faith in them. I believe that the majority of people posting here are quite depressed perhaps even brainwashed into thinking that the sky is falling. We sit on the edge of our seats waiting for the axe to fall and even wishing it did so we can feel smug that it finally did happen. How will we change or will we change? It's up to each individual to answer that for himself. I cannot offer anything to anyone on this forum other than an opinion. But what do we base our opinions on? What we hear from the "experts of course. Even the newspaper clips posted here are getting redundant. Been there, read it, know it, who cares? This is where Ed is coming from, he's looking to pick up the pieces and put them back together after 2000, that is if there are any pieces to pick up, nothing may be broke.

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 22, 1999.

Many won't, but I will. I admit it, I hope thing's go AFU, not permanantly, not even semi-pemanantly, just for maybe a month. My reason? NOT because I'm Mr. evil, or anti-social, or some wacko, just for the fact that WE as the human race NEED(IMO)a big collective slap in the face. We have, for the most part, become a people of massive diconnect, shrouded in selfishness, materialisim and smug arrogence.

Not to mention, it would be nice to stop the world for a little bit to stop and smell the roses(ok maybe it won't be so rosy). I think as a people we will benifit greater if y2k is severe than if it's a non- event. The (hopefully) short-term suffering would bring back some of the compassion and understanding to our soul's that has been getting whittled away over the years.

I think more people, deep down, think along theese lines than are willing to admit. I'm not trolling here, those are my real gut feeling's. So sue me!

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), July 22, 1999.

So far, so good. I, too believe that people will fall together, rather than fall apart. But if it comes to that, are we ready to fill leadership roles in our communities? It's new leadership possibilities that are so encouraging, and so frightening. I don't worry too much about Y2K causing loss of freedom in America. I believe we've lost more through the complacency of good times, than we will through the rigors of bad times. Also, I believe that bad-times spawn good leaders (and visa-versa, unfortunately). Please continue.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Lon,

IMHO I do not believe there will be any direct changes due to the Y2k issue. I have been working the problem, for 2 years now, for a major institution and do not foresee major disruptions that will effect any major change in society. I am myself preparing for minor disruptions (1 week max). I do not think the power will be out for any extended period of time on a large area basis. Look at the people that lived through the ice storms in Canada and NY that lost power for 5 weeks and more, is their way of life any different now? I think that those who are in control (big business and government) have too much to lose to let this become a major event and therefore they will do what it takes to make sure the way of life does not become affected.

All that being said I will add one more point that I will confess, scares me. That is human malice. All those fringe elements out there that will use this to create havoc and terror in the world and will promote disaster to bring about change. In the end what will the effects of their efforts be? That is my biggest concern for the Y2k event.

-- ~~~~ (~~~~@~.~), July 22, 1999.

My opinion?

I think it's the human element here that introduces the biggest variable on whether the Y2K phenomenon. It's everyone's reaction to what ultimately comes from the inevitable systems failures that will dictate how much the 'society machine' grinds to a halt.

Barring an unwarrented nuclear exchange or massive environmental damage, a pragmatic society could overcome a staggering array of failures - but I don't believe we are capable of that type of level-headed collective response.

This is likely why there is such a positive 'spin' out there. The governemnt understands our own human nature well. If the government said 'Yup. It's pretty bad. You should all go out and stock up on your needs because they are not assured anymore', there WOULD be shortages and panic and whatnot - virtually a 100% probability. Better to the hedge their bets and smile when providing bad news.

The irrational, illogical human - you and I - that's what I perceive to be the biggest risk here.

And in a direct answer to the question posed, I think large pockets of North America will revert to the 1900's style of living for a while until a recovery is made - and that this mess will take years to fully clean up. As for the rest of the world, I find it is just to variable to even contemplate.

My OPINION.

-- Was Newbie - no longer (family@guy.com), July 22, 1999.

Since I'm guessing the most likly outcome will be a depression I would refer you to the last such event for guidance with some key differences.

People are not nearly self sufficient as they were back then.

We now have an extensive "Entitlement" culture in the US of A.

Many people feel "Entitled" to the fruits of other peoples labors. Their definition of "Fair" is that they can have what ever you have. It doesn't matter if you worked hard in college and at your first few jobs building a career for yourself. If you have it, some people feel they are entitled to it. They confuse equality of Opportunity with equality of Outcome. I believe if we are in a depression people who took the time to research the issue and then spent the treasure to secure supplies for the future instead of buying that new video game or spiffy coat will be labeled "Hoarders". Never mind that everyone else had the same opportunity to prepare. People who don't "have" will want your stuff, and people who are in governemt will be happy to use you as the scapegoat to divert attention away from their lack of action.

This bodes ill for the farsighted. Add to your preplist "Ways to look no better off than anyone else". Yes, that conflicts with my earlier message of "Help your neighbors in need". I'm working on it.

Look hungry and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), July 22, 1999.

~~~: You think that the combined effect of global y2k problems and the associated economic maladies will only last 1 week? Please list for me all of the factors that influenced your opinion.

And who exactly are you defining as "the fringe"?

-- a (a@a.a), July 22, 1999.

In response, I too, have wanted to see the world change. Recently, I read in a travel magazine that the new thing in Japan is "minute resturants". You punch a time card when you enter, pig out as fast as possible at the buffet, and punch out again. You get charged for the minutes you spent eating. (Lord, I hope I miss out on that)

But I'm older now, I am staring a comfortable retirement right between the eyes, and I REALLY want to be one of those geezers puttering around Yellowstone in my motorhome. But I realize that what I want doesn't much matter in the course of things to come. I can only hope that some of you are correct, in that what the big boys want WILL matter. Please continue

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Maybe another forum split is due. Preserve this one for bickering over severity, trading insults, boosting egos, etc. and start a new one, like the TB2000 Prep forum that is totally geared towards Leadership and Recovery issues. No trolling allowed, just like on the Prep forum. What do you think?

-- a (a@a.a), July 22, 1999.

I'm expecting a depression at best. The conventional wisdom is that Y2K will miraculously stop at the American shoreline. Oh, most will concede an occasional bump caused by a minor supply line glitch, but that's about it.

While it's true that major efforts have been made by some here in this country, there is a distressing lack of completion. And then there's all the small businesses that will FOF.

The lack of progress at the city and metropolis levels is extremely frightening. If even one of these suffers a catastrophic failure in its water systems or treatment systems, an entire population could be wiped out by disease or poisoning. Treating these people in our health system, which will have problems of its own in any event, may prove impossible.

Civil unrest can be expected because we've become used to reliable public services. Add the nagging suspicion I have that the Feds have credible intelligence of terrorist attacks to coincide with rollover, and it's impossible to be sure that anyone will be safe in a large city.

The IRS won't say when it will be compliant, which means it won't be in business next year. What does that mean?

I think it means months of panic, followed by a very slow recovery.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 22, 1999.

A differnt facet of my "argument" or opinion a few other posters have touched on...

I feel the government "at large" does not have my best interst at heart. In fact, "heart" and government are mutually exclusive. The goverment has gotten so big and ponderous (and corrupt), that it no longer serves a function. This week, Congress voted themselves a pay raise. I wish I could do that...

No, I am not a militant type, but I see clearly where this government, the UN, and NWO weenies, are going. I want no part of it.

Waxing religious for a moment, there is a verse in the Bible, and I believe in the Koran also, that states than "Man cannot govern himself". Considering the current situation around the world, I fully believe that to be true.

(religious off)

If martial law is enacted, for whatever reason, I feel it may never be lifted... IMHO.

I also agree about the fringe terrorist movements. There will, IMHO, be disruptions from strictly terroristic activity, during rollover.

Good thread Lon...

scratchin',

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 22, 1999.

Oh, I don't know "a". I can live with bickering and insults. I just thought it would be nice to have one thread devoted to what is addmittedly CONJECTURE. If we all agree that we are guessing, no has to tell us how stupid we are.

But back to the point. I for one, have rejected the "barter" idea. If things get that bad, if we can't get enough tennis shoes, then we WON'T get enough food. We, at least in developed nations, live in a world of material riches, unimagined just a few generations ago. Why, my wife has enough junk stored in the barn to build a space shuttle and two steam locomotives. Of course, that's a joke, but if we do indeed return to a 1900's way of life, it will be amongst an increditable array of stuff. What I'm interested in knowing is how you envision even a small change caused by Y2K to affect our day-to- day lives. I won't hold you to it, I just want your ramblings.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

a,

IMHO I do not foresee global Y2k maladies. My preparations stem from daily inconveniences. It is my belief that no single or combined failure will be large or significant enough to create such impacts upon societies. Of course that does not include the before mentioned concerns of human malice. And when I say fringe groups I am talking abou any and all groups that promote human malice and violence to advance their agendas. The combined affect of many groups, of this type, committing acts of violence and terrorism (which can be electronic) I feel will have a greater impact than any thing else.

-- ~~~~ (~~~~@~.~), July 22, 1999.

Come on folks. We're trying, but we're not quite gettin' out of the rut.

Don't tell me if Y2K is gonna be bad, not so bad, or even good. Don't tell me HOW it'll be whatever. Instead tell me how you expect to live post Y2K. Will YOU seek a leadership role. Will we as a society use the impetus of Y2K to make changes in lifestyles, mores, laws, and our perceptions of "community", "nation", "government"?

I don't expect a watertight scenario. I don't expect you to have it all worked out, but let's have a virtual think-tank, if you will.

Please continue, and thanks for the input

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Just for the record (even though I post anonamously, for business reasons), just because I am an optimist on Y2k does not mean that I agree or support the present administration. I to have been quite offended and are concerned by the present course of the government and some aspects of society.

-- ~~~~ (~~~~@~.~), July 22, 1999.

FWIW,

No I would NOT take a leadership role after the rollover for whatever reason. There are plenty of "leader-types" that will vye for roles. I will merely support these types, as best I can, as I am somewhat of a loner, or as put to me by my manager, "a loose cannon". I will volunteer my services as needed, and continue on.

Leadership is not for everyone, especially me. I am the leader of my family, that is good enough for me.

Regarding your original post, I feel I have already changed, for the better. I am less dependent on city services and supply lines. I am prepared for natural disasters, and power outages... change is good...

snoozin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 22, 1999.

Desert Dog,

I believe some of the most effective leaders throughout history have been those individuals who were sought out by the position. Think of the Monty Python skit where everyone else steps back a step, leaving the "volunteer". You say you won't seek leadership, but you lead your family. Who will your family consist of, post Y2K? (And FWIW. I've watched you step up to the podium here pretty often. Admirably so, I think)..

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Hi Lon! Gumbo cookin'? :-) I believe (and always have) that our biggest problems next year will be economic. We WILL learn to live with less in America. In some cases, MUCH less. I also believe that we will see a major act of terrorism. Whether from home or abroad, I don't know. Added to that will be a cataclysmic act of nature at some point during the year. Probably an earthquake. The assistance will be very limited, because there won't be much left to share. (From FEMA, Red Cross, or individuals.) I see the "arrogance" of many Americans taking a nosedive.

What will I do in response? The one and only dream I've had about next year was related to feeding others. I was waiting for a truck to arrive so I could get more rice. I also had a "daydream" (don't know what else to call it) where I was handing out small styrofoam cups full of oatmeal to children in my area. I have worked very hard to get totally out of debt, because the biggest problems I think we'll see are economically related. (Loss of jobs and income, prices going extremely high.) I want to be able to help others. I guess it's because that is what is on my heart. I already help needy families NOW. I am especially worried about single moms, children and the elderly.

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 22, 1999.

My "extended" family, post Y2K, will be my four children, ages 18, 16, 14 and 12; my wife of course, my DGI sister-in-law, my mother-in- law, and my next door neighbors. (two adults, two teenagers)

I guess I am "sort" of a leader now... now that you mention it... ; )

Lon you are actually making me think "out of the box". Cool, very cool.

gettin' a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 22, 1999.

Gayla, Ma Sha'! Too hot for gumbo, keepin' the shrimp on ice.

I too, am biginning to think in terms of economic crises. My business is service area related to retail petroleum. I know that if we have even a mild set-back, I will be "self-unenployed". But, I've begun to wonder what it will be like. I look at the nieghbors' houses, and imagine them not going anywhere. Not going to work, not going to the mall, not going to the grocery. What WILL we be doing? Will someone organize a food committee, or a health assisstance team, or an armed neighborhood watch? we're somewhat rural here, down on the bayou, and like just about everything else regarding Y2K, that might be good or bad.

I'm just asking for folks' ideas. Dog says his family consists of kids and relatives, but I see other kids walking down the road in front of my house right now. Might they become part of my family, too? If we start thinking about new perameters governing "community" and "nation" might we not be faced with new ideas about "family" as well? At what point do "economic" become "societal"?

Just thinkin' out loud. And another thought about leadership, post Y2k. I spent some time in Costa Rica. They have a national hero who was a young boy. He played a part in some battle, somewhere, and I believe was killed. But the part I remember, is that their affectionate name for him translates loosely as "he who did not refuse". NOT "he who got elected", or "he who was a great leader", nor even "he who volunteered". But "he who did not refuse". I like the Costa Ricans; they're good folks.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

One thing I've noticed is that people don't like to be without "information" when something goes awry. During our power outages here, neighbors, whom I hardly so much as wave to, were all gathered in the street asking "Has anyone heard anything? How much longer will it be? Is your power out too? Is there power at the deli?"

During the ice storm we had here many years previous, it was the cable that was out all day and same thing. Everyone stands around wanting to know "who what where when". Half of them didn't even think of turning their radios on.

How will the massive blackout of information affect the masses? I think people are comforted in times of emergency by the constant "live" reports they are supplied by their tvs. Just having that reporter there, live, makes them feel okay. Without that, I can imagine people looking to word of mouth reports and we all know how rumors can spin out of control in those situations.

In a post y2k world, I can picture myself printing a weekly newspaper and distributing it among the neighborhood. I have an old ditto machine in my basement, before xerox, remember? It's hand cranked. I like that idea. Will make me feel useful. :)

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), July 22, 1999.

Sorry, Dog. I didn't mean to disparage your idea of family above. I should have said - Like myself and Dog, our concept of family is often limited to kids, relitaves and close neighbors.

I was trying, I guess to lead to the idea that a real leader is still head of his family; that those he is responsible for should be his family in his/her mind. Sounds pretty bizarre in todays' climate.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

I expect we will do a LOT more gardening, to supplement mostly, because it is almost impossible to grow everything one needs. Also a lot of small business will start from gardening...cider vinegar. hard cider, plant sets, seeds etc. Neighborhood flea markets will start up and thrive because we all do have a lot of extra stuff and can swap or sell it. Expect an increase of stealing kinds of crime, lots of younger people out of work and hanging around. Block leaders will emerge based on severity of safety issues, and probably limited access to residential sections, large and small, to increase security. More local treatment of the ill and injured, especially as insurance not a factor as people lose jobs, computers messed up, etc. ( Health insurance is already a mess with no y2k!) Local leaders arise for security, teaching or watching kids, skills, medic , niehgborhood relief (local soup kitchen), not just one person, but several, with different areas of expertise.

In an emergency the established leaders seldom lead, but some unexpected person will rise to the occaision and do it. Good role for established leaders is more bureaucratic; support services.

I expect reversal to more traditional male-female roles due to having to do a lot more from scratch.

-- seraphima (seraphima@aol.com), July 22, 1999.

Seraphina, great post. This is what I'm looking for. A thoughtful and thought-provoking prediction of post Y2k. I note that you see leadership on a block or beighborhood status. What authority will such leaders have? How much authority would you you be willing to give them? And again, will they be the biggest, the meanest, the smartest, or the most good-looking?

Youth and crime. I hadn't given it much consideration. How will we punish criminals. How will we rate the severity of crimes. Will food stealing be worse then? (Remember horse stealing was a capital offence in some parts of the West, where a horse ment your livilihood.)

Along these same lines, I live in an area of recent, rampant prison- building. These huge, concrete and steel compounds are obviously more expensive and more modern than any area shool. How much economic devestation can we stand before we re-think such expendature of limited resources?

Thanks for your candid reply.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Lon, are you capable of taking care of a bunch of kids and their family and their friends and their acquaintances? I doubt it. What's going to happen when the food is gone? There is never total justice in life because life is just not fair. It is what it is. I choose not to carry the burden of other's because I cannot be all things to all people. A good example of this is feeding the hungry at Thanksgiving and Christmas. We see it every year on our TV's the hungry being fed. Why do the networks show it? Is it suppose to make me feel compassion and less guilty that the poor are being fed? Well, what about the next day, the next week, the next month, where are the cameras showing these hungry people being fed? Perhaps we are lucky to have the resources to prepare a little for the future but what happens to us when the food is gone and we have no money. Will we expect others to take care of us? What about your children when you look into their eyes and say we have no food to eat? Some how we think that we will be the have's and we'll be okay. You say "some unexpected person will rise to the occasion and do it." It takes money and resources and not everyone will benefit because the goods will eventually run out. We send aid to foreign countries to feed the poor. Is that compassion? No! Because no matter how much food you send to these people, they will still be poor and will breed more children to live a life of poverty. Maybe we will band our resources together and become small communities, but I doubt it. We can't seem to get along with each other on this forum so imagine what it would be like having small communities and the power struggles that would develop.

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 22, 1999.

WellWisher,

Am I capable of caring for a bunch of kids, their parents, and friends? Well yes, to some degree, and for some time. I am also capable of shareing seeds and showing people how to grow food with them. And I am capable of telling someone to go seek greener pastures, and giving them a sack of rice to help them on their way. What I am not capable of, is watching a child die on my doorstep, and not trying to help. If I become convinced that is a true possibility, I will act upon a contigency plan to substantially remove my family from any society contact for an extended time. That is a hard, personal decision, which I faced some months ago.

I agree, neither you nor I can feed everyone. But what I'm asking on this thread is not what we can't do, but rather, what we perhaps, can see ourselves doing. Do you foresee yourself becomming autonomous, relying in nothing and responding to no law, no order? Or do you envision some form of society arising from the ashes of our foolishness? Or do you see only an inconvience of lifestyle?

As I asked above, when does an economic crisis become a societal delima? Whaat's your particular take?

Thanks for your time and insight, I value both.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Lon, it's difficult to answer what would I do. I really don't know. Would I take food out of my child's mouth to feed another, the answer is no. Which one would you chose? I could probably spare some rice for a family of 4 for a week, but what about the next week when they come to you asking for more? And what will I do when my rice runs out? I could show people how to grow their own vegetables, but what does one eat while the carrots are growing? What about water, and the climate where you live? I live in a very rural area, and there is not one single person within 1/2 mile of me who has a garden. I will do what I have to do to survive and I don't consider myself the weakest person around. I can only imagine what kind of society would be left if the food supply ran out. There will no doubt be casualties from famine and disease. Disease will be the most devastating of them all. Would you put your family in jeopardy by taking in someone who was possibly infected with chlorea, small pox, or some other infectious disease because you felt sorry for them? These are hard questions to answer, and the scenarios that are being portrayed by some disaster experts leads me to believe that being autonomous may not be such a bad idea after all.

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 22, 1999.

Now we'e getting somewhere. These are indeed hard questions. Perhaps there are no answers now. But we have an opportunity to visualize, to ask these questions of ourselves, and to temper our minds with the ideas and opinions of others.

We always tend to see versions of Mad Max or The Postman, but there may be drastic changes within our society with much less severe scenarios. And like you said earlier, we always see ourselves as the prepared ones. We have discussed many times when and how we would share or not share what we may have, but never have we asked what circumstances would cause US to ask for help. How and when and why would we approach a neighbor for help? How about a stranger? When our kids are starving, or when we just need a couple extra gallons of gas?

If we do have to ask, what response would we expect? What would we fear? How might we react? I'm going off on a tangent here, but I'm just throwing out some blocks. Maybe someone will pick them up and build and idea.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Don't put yourself in a position where you must ask for food, water or shelter. However, there's nothing wrong with bartering for goods and services that you need. Bartering is trading and it's the oldest form of goods exchange. Surely the family who comes to your door and asks for food would gladly pull weeds or till the soil for a garden in exchange for food. I wouldn't hand over anything without getting something in return because everyone should earn their keep. But what would you do if they refused to work for their food? Would they become a threat to your family and survival? Would they go and tell others that you have food but you refuse to give it up unless they worked for it? If you think this scenario could happen to you, then it would be a prudent thing to store more beans and rice to meet the demand. We can play a 1,000 different scenarios and we would be here for days acting them out. The route I am going will be not to draw attention to my house (that means no generator), have an alternative plan, and keep my plans and preparations to myself. You have to assume that no one else around you has prepared for any kind of shortage or major disruptions. If you don't think you can handle it by yourself, and WTSHTF, take in someone that you can trust to help manage the fort.

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 22, 1999.

I agree with "kritter" that communications will be very important. However, because that also means finding out what is going on in the world outside the neighborhood, amateur radio operators will be of the utmost value. They will be the only lifeline to the outside world if things get really bad.
If you want to know more about amateur radio and how to get started in it, you can visit my Amateur Radio web page.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), July 22, 1999.

Come on, Steve, you' getting there. I agree, through out history the one thing that has been universally recognized as valuable is KNOWLEDGE. You as a receiver of information on a shortwave radio will be presented with great wealth, and an opportunity at leadership. Don't skoff; my brother was a small town Doctor. People respected his knowledge so much that they were always asking him things like which kind of tires to buy, or what did he think of their daughter's boyfriend?

So, I still want to think in nitty-gritty terms here. How will you use that opportunity? Will you sell your knowledge (news), or will you even welcome inquiry? Will you be brutally honest, or will you not tell your eldery neighbor that her sister is reported dead? And most of all, at what scenario do you envision shortwave to become increasingly valuable? How minor a disruption might it take ?

Thanks to all of you for replying to this somewhat off-beat and unmanageable thread. I'm enjoying the exchange of ideas, and hope you will continue.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 22, 1999.

Lon: SHORTWAVE RADIOS IN POST-Y2K

-- a (a@a.a), July 22, 1999.

seraphima: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 22, 1999.

Lon: You don't sell anything when your in trouble, you barter services for services. He who has the most toys win.

King of Spain: Who would ever want to mud wrestle with you? Too messy.

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 23, 1999.

wellwisher:

You said: "If you think this scenario could happen to you, then it would be a prudent thing to store more beans and rice to meet the demand."

My question is: "To what end?" If your neighbors have no food and no water and no electricity and no source of energy to COOK this rice and beans, what purpose does it serve to provide it? If you state that you'll COOK rice and beans and serve it to the neighbors, that's a different story.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 23, 1999.

The ugly truth is you can't feed everyone. Wellwisher is right to be concerned about if and how to feed others. In order for for "everyone" to be fed we would have to know what percentage of people were not going to be prepared. If it's 95% or lower then, if we spend alot of our own money, we each could feed perhaps 20 people until some gardens were ready. This will run you about 4 grand. And that's every single one of the 5% who get it planning for that. I doubt we even number 5%. I would guess we are more like 1% of the population. And if we had the numbers, I doubt we have the time. It seems Americans would have had to start preping two years ago in order for there to be enough to go around. God help us if the lights go out.

Watch six and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.com), July 23, 1999.

Anita, you will have to make that decision for yourself about feeding other people. Based on my own circumstances and what I think would happen in my part of the woods, I don't intend on feeding anyone. Whatever decision you make will be the right decision for you. Ever have a cat dumped off at your house and you fed the cat because you felt sorry for it? The cat never left did it?

-- wellwisher (wellwisher@well.com), July 23, 1999.

>>So, I still want to think in nitty-gritty terms here. How will you use that opportunity? Will you sell your knowledge (news), or will you even welcome inquiry? Will you be brutally honest, or will you not tell your eldery neighbor that her sister is reported dead? And most of all, at what scenario do you envision shortwave to become increasingly valuable? How minor a disruption might it take ?

First, I should explain, for those of you who might not be familiar with amateur radio, that it is not merely receiving shortwave broadcasts. That is a valuable way of getting information from the outside world, of course, but it is one-way: you can't ask the questions that you really need answers to.

By contrast, amateur radio is two-way: I can communicate with people all over the country and the world, using only a small amount of power and no intermediaries at all (telephone lines, relay stations, and the like).

How will this be useful in a Y2K disaster? Well, of course, under current FCC regulations, it's illegal to be compensated for amateur radio operations. However, I think it's pretty obvious that if Y2K is bad enough to cause a prolonged communications emergency that would require full-time, 24x7 amateur operations, the FCC, even if it still existed, wouldn't be in any position to complain about those operators being fed or given other gifts so that they could devote their time to communications.

As for how bad the situation would have to be to make amateur radio valuable: such situations happen all the time, e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, or any other situation where normal communications methods are either out of commission or overloaded. So it can't hurt to get your license and set up your station, whether or not Y2K turns out to be as bad as I think it will.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), July 23, 1999.

Come on folks. Were trying , but were not quite getting the idea of this thread.

I dont want to discuss the value of radios, or stored food, or guns or generators. These are all resources which will certainly have value relative to the post Y2K scenario. But these are not resources which most of us use daily, today. What Im asking for, is how might you USE your resources? How will they shape your life? Where might be your limits of compassion? Might you kill for food? Or might you risk the lives of your family to help strangers? (Before you say it wont happen remember the underground railroad, or the Germans who helped Jews in Nazi Germany).

I know we all have given at least cursory thought to the 10+ scenario. But lets explore it and others, as well. After almost two years of this forum, is Mad Max the only scenario we can imagine? Tell me what you think MIGHT happen, even if you dont think it is what WILL happen. And remember, no personal attacks; no challenges. We can each be anonymous here, and its admittedly conjecture.

If you envision a 10+, fine. I you see something less, fine. Tell us how YOU might recover. How will you help your community to recover? If its 10+, our world will certainly change, but if its less, how might you use the momentum of Y2k to change your life; your community; your government?

WellWisher has told us he will feed no one, and that he might seek autonomy, as the best path for his situation. While Gayla sees herself in a position of helping others. Neither is right , nor wrong.

What Im asking may be ultimately unanswerable. But for a while, lets think outside of our accepted plans. Lets explore some other, cob-web filled corners of our minds.

Any takers?

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 23, 1999.

Lon: Start a new thread, this one is too far down the line and maybe get real specific as to what you want to know.

-- ~~~~~@@@@ (~~~@@@@~~~~.com), July 23, 1999.

I'm not at all sure that many here really want to participate in an experiment such as this thread has been. On another thread, someone bemoaned the stupidity of educated people, and wanted us all to begin to think "outside the box". Original thought is not common, unfortunately, to people educated formally, or otherwise. We all tend to know what we know.

But I'm willing to keep exposing my ignorance if you are.

So here goes--- "Let's move on, revisited" Perhaps someone could link to this thread as well.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 24, 1999.

Let's move on, Part 2

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 0018IR

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 24, 1999.