RESULTS OF LAST WEEKS QUICK POLLgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Here are the results of last weeks poll. The average is#7,24,41,19,8
but unfortunately no one had the winning ticket (sorry, King...)
Notes:
1. All entries were used. The number of "non-regulars" was insignificant and there seemed to be no obvious attempts to skew the results in either direction.
2. Mike Taylor -combined your two recession values
3. BB-averaged your two entries
4. Critt- averaged your entry to 0,33,34,33,0
5. bw- normalized your data to sum to 100
6. Taz- normalized your data to sum to 100
7. &&- normalized your data to sum to 100
8. RB-couldn't reconcile your data. Discarded.
9. Robert Cook, present and accounted for. I'll let you elaborate. Second prize goes to whoever can find Roberts entry in the data below. :)
Bump Recession Depression Collapse Infomagic 1 28 50 20 1 100 10 70 19 0.8 0.2 100 0 10 40 40 10 100 4 25 50 20 1 100 5 30 50 10 5 100 30 50 20 0 0 100 0 10 90 0 0 100 0 1 24 40 35 100 0 60 30 8 2 100 0 60 40 0 0 100 0 10 55 30 5 100 0 20 70 10 0 100 0 20 50 25 5 100 5 40 52 2 1 100 0 30 65 5 0 100 0 40 58 2 0 100 5 40 54 1 0 100 0 0 50 50 0 100 0 40 50 10 0 100 0 15 80 5 0 100 0 2 61 33 4 100 0 25 45 10 20 100 0 0 40 50 10 100 0 25 55 20 0 100 0 50 35 10 5 100 0 10 70 20 0 100 6 30 50 10 4 100 10 25 50 10 5 100 0 20 60 15 5 100 0 15 40 30 15 100 0 40 60 0 0 100 0 5 25 40 30 100 0 60 30 9 1 100 0 40 50 9 1 100 0 40 55 4 1 100 0 0 30 60 10 100 0 20 50 20 10 100 5 10 35 40 10 100 1 10 75 10 4 100 5 17 55 21 2 100 0 0 10 80 10 100 30 50 10 5 5 100 10 40 40 10 0 100 0 15 35 35 15 100 24 70 5 1 0 100 0 50 28 21 1 100 0.95 8.15 80 8.65 2.25 100 0 0 30 50 20 100 3 45 45 7 0 100 12 70 17.9 0.1 0 100 0 10 55 30 5 100 0 0 75 0 25 100 0 10 30 50 10 100 14 55 30 1 0 100 0 5 70 25 0 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 45 45 10 0 100 2 35 40 5 18 100 0 0 45 50 5 100 0 10 30 30 30 100 0 10 30 50 10 100 98 2 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 15 20 50 10 5 100 0 33 34 33 0 100 5 30 50 15 0 100 0 5 15 70 10 100 0 9 49 39 3 100 0 0 60 30 10 100 10 35 40 10 5 100 10 10 60 10 10 100 0 10 45 45 0 100 0 40 30 20 10 100 0 65 35 0 0 100 5 30 50 12 3 100 5 40 50 5 0 100 1 40 50 8 1 100 1 5 65 20 9 100 34 65 1 0 0 100 10 35 40 14 1 100 0 55 35 9 1 100 10 55 32 2 1 100 2 20 50 20 8 100 0 75 10 10 5 100 0 0 10 70 20 100 5 10 30 50 5 100 0 0 50 0 50 100 0 10 15 60 15 100 0 10 30 35 25 100 10 30 50 10 0 100 0 3 40 50 7 100 1 39 50 10 0 100 0 18 74 8 0 100 2 25 50 20 3 100 5 30 40 20 5 100 0 42 57 0 1 100 5 40 50 4 1 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 90 10 0 0 0 100 0 5 25 50 20 100 0 30 50 20 0 100 90 10 0 0 0 100 0 2 25 48 25 100 0 0 76 17 7 100 10 20 50 15 5 100 0 10 75 10 5 100 0 10 80 10 0 100 0 8 46 38 8 100 0 25 65 9 1 100 0 5 70 20 5 100 50 0 40 10 0 100 0 15 40 40 5 100 60 35 5 0 0 100 0 20 60 20 0 100 0 10 60 30 0 100 1 28 35 35 1 100 0 10 60 20 10 100 5 40 40 10 5 100 0 40 40 19 1 100 0 15 50 25 10 100 0 0 20 60 20 100 0.5 70 27 2 0.5 100 10 20 50 10 10 100 15 55 29 1 0 100 20 20 20 20 20 100 0 10 45 35 10 100 5 60 32 3 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 25 65 10 0 0 100 2 20 70 0 8 100 0 48 47 4 1 100 0 20 50 25 5 100 0 10 50 35 5 100 AVG 7 24 41 19 8
-- a (a@a.a), July 20, 1999
*SIGH* A cheerful bunch, aren't we?Well, you don't get a vote on what kind of times you live in. You just get to deal with them the best you can.
-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 20, 1999.
Yep. Thanks "a."High probability of a global depression cascading next year... with or without polls and opinions.
It's a systemic lack of attention to critical details. Internationally. All it takes is *some* not all, to start the ripples. Amd contingency plans are not a solution... they're a reaction.
*Sigh*
Diane
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.
Thanks "a" :^)
Repeat the Poll in December ;^)
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 20, 1999.
The CIA's own assesment of virtually all of our import countries(N. Korea,S.korea,Japan,China,Tiawan,Mexico,etc.)is that they will experience localized but SEVERE disruptions in the areas of Gov., util, transportation.The net effect on our economy will be severe. Go into w-mart or k- mart or any store and see where all our goods come from. If these stores get looted or sell out, when will they be restocked? How long can they keep all their employee's on the payroll?
Personally I think we're looking at a thirty percent unempl. rate. Hope I'm wrong, but can't picture it.
-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), July 20, 1999.
A beautifully symetric Bell Curve (aka "Pig-in-the-Python"). Big numbers in the middle, tapering neatly towards the edges. Even the total gloomers seem to balance out the total pollys. Thanks for an interesting diversion, a.
-- it's a (cosmic@craps.shoot), July 20, 1999.
N=133 for you stats buffs out there.Not a huge suprise that the result was almost normally distributed.
-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.
Thanks for doing the poll, "a". The results are very interesting. It was surprising to see so many responses.Maybe we could do some other polls on the forum. Suggestions for questions or topics anyone?
-- Clyde (clydeblalock@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.
Clyde: How about these for ideas: 1) How many Americans will die in 2000 due to Y2K?2) The year the Dow Jones returns to 10,000?
3) The date Clinton resigns?
4) The date Gore resigns?
5) The date Red China invades Formosa?
6) The day the 1st post-1945 nuclear weapon is used as a weapon?
7) The day martial law is declared by the Feds?
8) The day the greenback is officially acknowledged as no longer being accepted as currency by Americans?
9) The percent unemployment in July 2000?
10) The percent of U.S. companies that go bankrupt in 2000?
Anyone (pollys/trolls excluded) who wants to, take this and run with it.
www.y2ksafeminnesota.com
-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.
Anyone-- what is 'infomagic' please?
-- winter wondering (winterwondering@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.
What is "infomagic"? Generally it might be regarded as the "megadeath" scenario, wherby civilization as we know it collapses. It's taken from the article series "SET RECOVERY ON", which first appeared in Cory Hamasaki's DC Weather Reports. See (not that I wholly agree): Part 2: The Devolutionary Spiral
Y2K: A mathematical Certainty
z@figure.8m.com), July 20, 1999.
"Second prize goes to whoever can find Roberts entry in the data below. :) " --aMaybe I should ask what the prize is before I answer??? :-)
It seems this is Robert's entry: 0.5 70 27 2 0.5 100
PS- "a" this was very interesting. Thanks! Just wanted to let you know that I didn't see "Old IBMer's" or Bob Barbour's entries.
-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 20, 1999.
Top.
-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.
So, what's second prize?
-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.
#1,20,70,5,4
-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), July 20, 1999.
Winter Wondering,For "Infomagic"
http://www.sonnet.co.uk/muse/dcwrp.html
Scroll down to WRP #100, 103, 106.
I still can't see why it can't be this way. I guess I am just too da*n dumb though. It seems as though every really smart dude/dudette around the world can disprove it all as a crock of crap, with no basis in truth, and absent any logic.
I think it not overly probable, but very much within the realm of possibilities, given the history of "Man's Inhumanity to Man", and the increasingly probable scenario that we will be facing in about a year.
Read also "Why Infomagic is a Pollyanna" in WRP #106.
I sure do hope that the other (real) Pollys are right.
S.O.B.
-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.
Second Prize is free manure shoveling lessons at Milne's farm.Congratulations Gayla!
-- a (a@a.a), July 20, 1999.
As for interesting topics for other polls, I suggest:"How much money have you actually already pulled out of stocks, mutual funds, etc?"
-- philpier (philpier@aol.com), July 20, 1999.
philpier....I like that idea, would be most interesting, but, how many would actually want to go on record with total dollar amounts? Not me, have you seen what some of these jerks have done to those disclosing thier tax information?Thanks for the effort a! Always fun to review these.
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 20, 1999.
WOW! Lucky me!! Do I get to keep the manure for my compost pile? Do I have to be blindfolded and driven there? Will he call me a butthead? So many questions... :-)
-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 20, 1999.
Sorry my Infomagic link(s) didn't work. Try:http://geocities.com/area51/vault/1157/sitemap.htm
and select "Set Recovery On" for the original 3-part series and "A Mathematical Certainty" or "Nine Possible Futures" for my humble evaluation (20%).
-- Zach Anderson (z@figure.8m.com), July 21, 1999.
philpier,I think this would be interesting, but I agree with Will Continue's point. How about changing it to asset allocation by percentages-- stocks, bonds, money-market funds, fixed-income funds, precious metals, etc., and how these percentages have changed since before you became aware of Y2K?
-- Don (whytocay@hotmail.com), July 21, 1999.