According to a report on the drudge a reporter for the viveyard gazette who was taking a walk on philbin beach at about the time of the crash saw a big white flash in the sky. Could be related or not. Maybe his crash might be terrorist related. Maybe that is why such a heavy envolvment by the armed services looking for the pieces. My prayers go out to the kennedy family. Dont rule out anything.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), July 19, 1999

Answers

Well, one wonders why Ron Brown (DNC) was dead from a gunshot wound prior to the plane crashing........

-- ya never (c@n.tell_anymore), July 19, 1999.

Heard JFK Jr was thinking of running for Senate of New York, against you-know-who. Hope it wasn't another of them Arkancides.

-- aintwonderinnomore (nothere@anymore.net), July 19, 1999.

Not trying to be too cynical....but.....

It would be terribly convenient to have seen 'a big white flash' wouldn't it.......imagine, no one can possibly prove you didn't see a flash of some sort and the newspapers would be clamboring to talk with you....perhaps even with checkbook in hand........

Why, when all of the evidence points to a seriously under-qualified pilot who was taking a big risk flying when he did, do some people have to throw in the "conspiracy theories".

Don't rule out anything huh Mike........Okay........perhaps Kennedy was kidnapped by the gigantic mutant tomatoes from the planet Korgonil in the galaxy Bourbonoid......I thought I saw some big red things in a saucer like object flying overhead.......

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), July 19, 1999.

I think it's more likely that he got lost in the haze and crashed into the sea. He was inexperienced, and flying a plane that was new to him. I've heard that people in the haze can even get up and down confused.

He probably should have not been flying on VFR in those conditions.

Tim

-- Tim the Y2K nut (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), July 19, 1999.

my y2k bugout location is in the galaxy Bourbonoid. really.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), July 19, 1999.

Is there some rule that a Kennedy can't die a normal, accidental death?

-- watch out (for@giant.tomatoes), July 19, 1999.

I would have more sympathy for the Kennedy family if John John (or even a single member of the clan) would have denounced Uncle Teddy for getting Mary Jo Kopeckne killed at Chappaquidick (sp?) because he didn't want a scandal.

Anyone who has read Senatorial Privilege will come to the conclusion that her life could have been saved had he sought help from authorities rather than trying to establish an alibi back at his hotel.

He should be in jail. Have no pity for the wicked.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 19, 1999.

I think the Trilateral commission met with members of the New World Order and the Bilderbergers in Sintra Portugal last week and determined that Osama Bin Laden (who is in fact a member of the CIA) should be asked to secure operatives from the IRA (that way if they're caught they have inherant deniability) to use special Magneto flashers from Area 51 labs to create a blinding flash thereby downing his aircraft.

Just try to prove me wrong, I dare ya. And I know it's true cause I read it in a report on Y2K compliance........

-- Fly Boy (take@thesewings.com), July 19, 1999.

Maybe a giant flying donkey came out of the sky and hit the plane breaking it into tiny parts. Maybe. Maybe not.

-- SgtSchultz (SgtHansSchultz@stalag13.com), July 19, 1999.

Well,

Elvis is still alive, isn't he?

-- Iluv (elvis@heda.man), July 19, 1999.

If he ran into haze, while descending for a landing, bad enuf to cause him to lose visual references, and if he did not INSTANTLY swith over to instrument flying, he could very quickly and easily lose control of the attitude of the plane and even put it on its back. It is VERY easy to lose it if you are not instrument rated since you CANNOT tell up from down if you don"t go on the guages instantly!! A few seconds of delay on his part, at an already low altitude would be enough to fly into the water. I think this is what happened and as a pilot I can understand and see how it happened. This is a tragedy which happens over and over and can only be prevented by proper instrument training. He ain't the first and he won't be the last. I am deeply sorry for all. Kentucky Bill

-- George Berge (gberge@kih.net), July 19, 1999.

George -

I agree with you. In the haze he probably lost his horizon. We had a Lifeflight helicopter go down a couple years ago in Puget Sound in moderate haze. The NTSB determined that he lost the horizon, didn't follow his instruments for whatever reason and flew it straight into the water - and he had 7,000+ hours and was intrument qualified. 3 died in that one. Doesn't matter that he was a Kennedy or such a good looking hunk - they were all young people who didn't get to fulfill whatever they could have accomplished. My prayers to the families.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), July 19, 1999.

More and more I wonder if the people on this forum aren't a bunch of paranoids. I for one have a bit of that in me too. But man do I wonder some times how far some people can go. I suggest if you want some credibility, keep your fingers away from the keyboard unless you are a psychic or have some real insight. I realize it is oh so easy for me to bitch right now, but hey, this one is for you bud! Keep focused dammit or loose followers. Period.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), July 19, 1999.

Saw an interesting profile of the Kennedy clan last night. They have always had a remarkable drive and a willingness, even eagerness to take risks, which Grandpa Joe fostered in all his kids.

Problem seems to be that there's just not enough emphasis placed on calculating the risks that one takes. Bobby's oldest son David died of a drug overdose (talk about risks), younger son Michael was killed while playing "ski football" at Aspen (after reportedly been warned of its dangers), and now JFK, Jr. is gone (taking his new wife and her sister with him) because he decided to fly at night in potentially poor visibility without being instrument rated.

A tragedy in every sense of the word.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 19, 1999.

I think the haze and his lack of instrument rating is the MOST LIKELY explanation.

However....

To go along with the "flash in the sky" report... which was made by a reporter no less, there is the report - - that the:

Plane dropped at a dramatic 4,700 feet-per-minute

Radar data indicate the plane was at an altitude of 2,200 feet at 9:40:20 p.m. Friday. Fourteen seconds later, the plane had plummeted to 1,100 feet.

Now.. I'm no pilot, but if you just visually lost the horizon in the haze, why wouldn't you just keep flying along like everything was fine until BLAMMO! you hit the water or mountain or whatever?

What happened at 2,200 feet that suddenly turned his craft from a plane into a rock?

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 19, 1999.

Oops! Those silly little <'s

To go along with the "flash in the sky" report... which was made by a reporter no less,

snippet:

"A reporter for the Vineyard Gazette newspaper told WCVB-TV in Boston that he was out walking Friday night about the time of the crash and saw "big white flash in the sky" off Philbin Beach."

there is the report - - that the:

Plane dropped at a dramatic 4,700 feet-per-minute

Radar data indicate the plane was at an altitude of 2,200 feet at 9:40:20 p.m. Friday. Fourteen seconds later, the plane had plummeted to 1,100 feet.

Now.. I'm no pilot, but if you just visually lost the horizon in the haze, why wouldn't you just keep flying along like everything was fine until BLAMMO! you hit the water or mountain or whatever?

What happened at 2,200 feet that suddenly turned his craft from a plane into a rock?

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 19, 1999.

"I for one am sick to death of obsessive conspiracy theories, in fact I think *someone* is using them to drive me crazy!" -Susan Sontag

"I envy paranoids; they actually feel people are paying attention to them." -Craig Lambert

-- CD (not@here.com), July 19, 1999.

What happened at 2200 ft may have been making the turn to runway heading. In a hazy moonless sky he likely just lost his references and either kept rolling into the turn, barrel rolling into the water or actually fixed himself on what he thought was the airport (A bouy's light perhaps?) and flown into the water.

Stranger things have happened to very experienced pilots at night. I know of one military flight crew who crashed when they were looking at and trying to avoid a water tower they thought was an oncoming aircraft. Another pilot died trying to join into formation with a set of flashing white strobe lights he thought was his wingman, but was actually a railroad locomotive. Another pilot trying to join on his wingman flew himself out of control and into the ocean when he mistook a star for his wingman's aircraft.

What exactly happened at 2200 ft? We may never know, but it only takes some research on similar situations to get an idea of the like possibilities.

And the white flash in the sky? Haze reflects very well. It may well have been a flash of fire at the moment of impact from JFK's plane being reflected in the haze and being seen from five or so miles away. Just like "heat lightning" so to speak.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), July 19, 1999.

Linda: It can be nothing more than a distraction -- reaching for a chart for example. The attitude of the plane changes slightly (say right turn, nose down -- and continuing to turn and lower the nose until corrected -- leading to a fully developed spin). A disoriented VFR pilot would know "something is wrong" but could easily exceed the airframe limits before taking the CORRECT action. Specifically, pulling the nose up too late (going too fast)would simply tear the tail off of the plane. I'm a VFR pilot and have "lost it" once just as described. Fortunately, I had an instructor in the right seat who corrected the condition before it became critical.

No conspiracy here, just a tragedy.

-- Dave W (dwood@southwind.net), July 19, 1999.

In reference to Linda's post regarding the sudden, rapid loss of altitude: Who here knows what a 'ZORCH' is?

-- Wewerediscussing (this@last.night), July 19, 1999.

RE: ZORCH I give up!

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), July 19, 1999.

Thanks Dave. Makes sense. From everything I read it sounded like Kennedy was just a little too inexperienced, a little too quick to take risks, and took off as soon as he got doctors okay after having cast removed from a previous accident.. and ran into a bit too much haze in the dark. The flash... if there was one, should have been more than one witness you would think. Certainly there were dozens of witnesses to *something* odd at the time of the TWA 800 crash. Now THAT merits a conspiracy. I tend to agree.. this was just a tragedy.

But wewerediscussing... what is a zorch?

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 19, 1999.

Linda, I concur where 800 is concerned.

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), July 19, 1999.

3 years exactly TWA 800 to JFK JR plane falling out of sky into water, same region. Another strange factodd to add to the ripley book.

-- h (h@h.h), July 19, 1999.

Regarding 'ZORCH':

Overwhelming an aircraft's communications, OR engine management systems, ie., electronic fuel injection, electronic ignition or other engine management controls via the use of high energy radio waves or any other kind of high energy RF (search or acquisition radar). Don't forget: civilian and or commercial aircraft are not shielded against this level of energy, but routinely absorbed by military aircraft in harm's way.

-- 1millionwatts (RF@close.range), July 19, 1999.

30 years less a day

-- bye (bye@mary.jo), July 19, 1999.

Gave me chills when I saw the postings about the date "coincidences"

July 16th: A private plane being piloted by John F. Kennedy, Jr., and carrying his wife and sister-in-law failed to land at the Martha's Vinbeyard airport on this day in 1999.

July 17th, 1996 TWA 800 crashed

July 18th:

On this day in 1969 on a bridge over the Chappaquiddick on Martha's Vineyard, Sen. Ted Kennedy was in a driving accident resulted in the death of a young political volunteer named Mary Jo Kopechne.

And more appropriate to this forum:

July 17th... On this day in 1861, the U.S. Treasury authorized the issuing of the first paper money, called demand money at the time because the bearer could demand gold. At first, only $50,000 was printed and went into circulation March 10, 1862, and was made legal tender March 17. The denominations were these: $5 (Hamilton), $10 (Lincoln), $20 (Liberty), $50 (Hamilton), $100 (a spread eagle), $500 (Albert Gallatin), and $1000 (Gouverneur Morris).

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 19, 1999.

RE: ZORCH Okay, just for the sake of argument... Let's assume that the aircraft was hit by a zorch and the electronics (communications, including radio navigation for instrument approach and engine management functions) were overwhelmed. A VFR pilot only needs a few instruments (airspeed, altimeter, compass) to fly under control. These are *not* electronic. In the event of a TOTAL failure of the entire electrical system including engine, a reasonably competent pilot would simply do a forced landing (ditch in the water), exit the aircraft and hopefully tread water until rescued. The located debris includes luggage (from the baggage compartment) headrests, and carpet consistent with Uncontrolled Flight into Terrain (major impact and destruction of the aircraft). Classic result of disorientation.

Now in the case of an instrument approach in poor visibility (Ron Brown), yeah, a ZORCH could be a real problem...

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), July 19, 1999.

Terminal stupidity. Many of the Kennedys don't think the laws pertain to them---even the laws of gravity.

-- Kitty (kittyfelton@chesapeake.com), July 19, 1999.

At 2200 feet, 10 seconds of response time is THE END OF THE SHOW, even for a very competent, experienced pilot. Do the math: 500 feet of sink rate for a high performance single = 4 seconds to water.

-- 1millionwatts (RF@close.range), July 19, 1999.

Let me try to explain. A Saratogo descending at that rate is out of control (500 ft per *minute* is standard) and probably, as you suggest, unrecoverable. But loss of electronics would not put the aircraft into this dive. If you are in straight and level flight at 200 knots and kill the engine, the plane's nose will simply drop to maintain 200 knots airspeed (with a loss of altitude probably around 800-1000 ft per *minute*) without ANY control imput from the pilot. This would not cause loss of control. The descent rate reported here would take time to develop - a result of pilot induced INCORRECT inputs and a failure to recognize and correct a developing crisis condition. Classic disorientation scenario.

It just occurred to me ... if the plane was on autopilot (electronic) and the electronics went nuts, then I suppose it could theoretically command the aircraft to dive ...?

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), July 19, 1999.

Silliness.

Newbies beware that even this the BEST y2k forum has it's share of, well, silliness.

Good to hear from Feller.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), July 20, 1999.

http://www.sightings.com has a bunch of interesting articles on this topic, and will no doubt keep up with the unfolding analyses.

-- Andy for a day. (no_say@portmeirion.com), July 20, 1999.

The inability to hold two things simultaneously in one's mind....

... is what? I'm butchering some obscure quote I've been trying to remember for years, but it sure applies often enough to wish I could complete it.

Why can't you just say that it might just be:

(a) an accident, or (b) an assassination

rather than jumping right to insulting references to alien abductions and Elvis sightings?

And we won't know which, until we know. And even then....

One of the amazing things about conspiracy theories for me is how many people (crash investigators, military personnel, etc.) have to be shut up to keep the thing quiet.

But then, look at how whistleblowers (and conspiracy researchers) are treated. Right here, even. The danger is tangible, in this land of "free speech". I'd probably go along and stay quiet, too. Stay alive to watch my kid grow up.

Over the past 20 years we have learned a lot about "black ops" and the weird spinoffs of our national security state. Not much is beyond our believing now, though we still try to utter the words "that just can't be!" now and then.

(Just this evening came across Ted Kaczinski as a subject in CIA's mind-control --LSD-- experiments around 1960.)

The JFK assassination is THE great unresolved "elephant" in our 20th Century American closet. Most Americans believe the truth is not officially out and they expect it never will be told.

Great cynicism proceeds from that fact. It predisposes us to "Kennedy accident" suspicions. It predisposes us to y2k paranoia (yes, that exists, alongside y2k realism.) And it invites "polly" flaming of anyone who voices doubts about "accidents" involving public figures.

But you can tell that both sides are bothered, agitated by the doubts lingering. We're all taking the time to post here aren't we? Can't quite scratch that itch...

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), July 20, 1999.

You people are a bunch of fucking idiots!!!! Kennedy's plane crash was not an act of terrorism, it was an act of stupidity!!!!!!

-- Lurker (Lurker@lurker.com), July 20, 1999.

NO question that he was an inexperienced pilot who was operating a high performance aircraft that was very possibly beyond his skill set for safe operation. However, one has to question what would put him in a position where he could not control the aircraft. Modern light aircraft are maintained through rigid standards. The question remains: was it totally pilot error, or was there some mechanical failure that exacerbated his situation?

-- 1millionwatts (RF@close.range), July 20, 1999.

There are a couple of points that need addressed regarding statements being bandied about in the news media and from the ill informed.(When I think about it, they are one in the same.) Some things need to be put in perspective. The standard decent rate for a light aircraft approaching the landing pattern is 500 feet per minute. The reports issued from the radar summaries say that Kennedys' plane decended over 4,700 feet in about a minute. That's an ear popping, scarry-assed ride toward the earths surface. But... millions of people experience far more extreme rates of speed on a daily basis in the family car! At 60 miles per hour a vehicle covers 5,280 feet in , you guessed it, one minute. Now, for some reason it doesn't seem to bother people to go wizzing down the road at 60+ MPH with another vehicle in the opposite lane going at least that fast (a closure rate of 120+ MPH) with nothing separating them except some lines painted on the asphalt, 48 inches of air, and faith. Personaly I'd rather be flying in one of those "little planes". (far less potential for collisions.) Another point the media pummels the public with is that JFK.jr. was an "inexperienced" pilot, a "novice". Untill they pull his logbook up from the ocean floor we won't know for certain exactly how many hours he actually accrued but, the report that I heard said that he had just under 300 hours. (40 hours is the required minimum for a Private Pilots license.) For the sake of argument, lets say he had a total of 280 hours. The standard work week is 8 hours a day over 5 days or 40 hours a week. Imagine, the next time that you are at work, that you are flying a plane. Any plane. (it's your imagination, remember!) When you arrive at work, instead of pounding keys, pounding nails, or pounding your head, you take off in your plane. You fly from point "A" to point "B". While enroute you talk to air traffic control. You practice maneuvers, ie. turns about a point, "S"-turns across a road, some emergency procedures,say, due to an engine-out condition. Maybe a stall series which include: power on, power off, and accelerated stalls. After a few hours of this you decide to land and take a lunch break. After lunch you take-off and do this again till it's quitting time and head back to land at "A". You do this or something similar 8 hours a day for 5 days and you end up with 40 hours of flight time. To accrue the aformentioned 280 hours you are going to have to perform this routine for 7...count them... SEVEN weeks. Inexperienced my buttocks! The only inexperience is that of the talking heads. More on the order of ignorance or, as Jack Nicholson would say "Freakin' morons!" They give teenagers 6 hours of instruction then turn them loose on the highways. I'd rather be flying. The last bone I have to pick is about the media's relentless squawks about, not only JFK.jr's but of other pilots lack of an instrument rating. There is no doubt that for the reported weather conditions at the time of the crash it would have been better had he had the additional training an instrument rating brings. BUT, (here we go) ALL student pilots applying for a Private Pilots certificate must have recieved training, have practiced, and had to have demonstrated to an FAA designated examiner PRIOR to recieving an endorsement allowing the applicant to exercise the privileges associated with the certificate the ability to recover from unusual attitudes by SOLE reference to the INSTRUMENTS! Got that? SOLE reference to the INSTRUMENTS! EVERY Private Pilot recieves instrument training as a prerequisite to being granted a licence and he must demonstrate his or her ability to use them correctly. If you can't... NO LICENSE! Then you get to go back to pounding keys, nails, your head or whatever... After a Headline aviation accident the local TV station sends out a reporter who, on a good day, is afraid to ride in an elevator to do a story on the dangers of flying in those "little planes". They go up and get a camera shot from the cockpit looking out of the plane while the pilot, trying to impress the (usually female) reporter, explains the difference between VFR and IFR flight (Visual vs Instrument flight rules). And, I don't how they do it but, EVERY time they pull this stunt the general audience comes away with the impression that because the Pilot in question didn't have an instrument rating that he would be unable to control the aircraft if he/she could not see the ground. As though he can't, isn't allowed to, or doesn't understand the information the instruments are providing. This is far from the truth. While technicaly he/she is violating the law by entering what is refered to as IMC (Instrument Meterological conditions), this situation does not prohibit the Pilot from using the instruments before him/her to maintain control and "fly the plane" which is always the first order of business. This is not to say that this is an easy task. It requires skill and the utmost concentration but it can be done. All activities carry a certain ammout of risk. Flying has it's own set of risks which the Pilot assumes every time he/she plans to step aboard. JFK.jr. knew of, and accepted those risks. As for the reports that he did not file a flight plan or request flight following. With all things being the same, doing those two things would only have made it possible for those involved in the search and rescue attempts to start finding the impact debris sooner. THATS ALL! Unless the findings show there was a bomb or a missle or aliens or Elvis or... the report will probably read: "Continued VFR operations into IMC... Pilot error."

My heart goes out to the family and friends of John and Carolyn Kennedy and Ms. Lauren Bessette. I will close with a message printed on a plaque I have in my home that I purchased back when I was a student Pilot. It reads:

"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity, or neglect."

-- John F. (tinfoil hats @nd colanders.com), July 20, 1999.

John: A much better explanation than my attempts above. Question - I assume the descent rate was derived from radar hits (elapsed time between recorded altitudes). Assuming this speed wasn't constant, ie an accelerating dive (which *averaged* 60 mph vertical descent between radar hits), would/could the airspeed achieved in the latter stage of the emergency have been sufficient to cause a structural failure? Specifically, 1) VFR into IMC, 2) spatial disorientation due to strobes in haze, 3) entry into accelerating unusual attitude, 4) incorrect and/or late correct imput in an overspeed situation, and 5) possible structural failure. This seems like the most plausible sequence of events to me with the information available, but I'd be interested in your thoughts. --Just a low time VFR pilot seeking to understand the accident chain and avoid a similar fate, okay?

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), July 21, 1999.

Hello Dave, First of all, thank you. Second, regarding your question. I understand your point on the rates of decent. I was just trying to give the non-flying readers of this board some point of reference on which to judge what they are being fed via the news media without going into a full blown course on aerodynamics. In the process I may have only served to confuse. You are absolutly right. The assumption considers only the average verticle speed. It is reported that the plane started it's decent from a cruise speed of 180 kts. And if we assume that the five points made in your post are correct, and the Vne was exceeded, then structural failure is quite possible. But, I think the NTSB will find that the damage sustained by the aircraft and it's occupants will be the result of the aircrafts *sudden deceleration* upon it's contact with the waters surface. As far as understanding the accident chain... The the points made in your post indicate that you have a firm grasp of the situation. If you truly wish to avoid a similar fate, go fly with a fellow pilot or better yet an instructor and put in some "hood time". Have the guy in the right seat call out headings and altitudes for you to hit and maintain. Practice those "recoveries from unusual attitudes" to the point that you can recover from them instinctivly. Also, if you can afford it and can find an aerobatic instructor, have him/her go through a series of stall/spin recoveries with you. It will be money and time well spent, possibly even life-saving.the point i'm trying to make to every one is that you needn't be instrument rated to be proficient at flying on instruments.

Current instruction methods and FAA requirements teach only stall awareness, prevention and recovery. While adequate, does not fully address the issue of recovery when the stall transitions to a spin. This point was made well clear to me just today as I was flipping through the channels when I happened upon a segment showing TV doctor Dr. Bob Arnot flying with an aerobatic instructor in a Citabria. He was trying to give the TV audience an idea of what may have happened to John jr.s' flight. From what I saw of it, he did a commendable job. But what got my attention was that he claimed that he'd never experienced anything like that (spin/"death spiral") before. If I heard the report right Dr. Arnot is supposed to have something like 5000 hours. That seems like lot of time spent without having had ANY experience with spins. After being signed off for solo flight but prior to my long cross- country I went out to practice the dreaded power-on stalls. Always HATED them, always will. Anyway to make a long story short, one stall broke right wing first and continued on around. The next thing I know is that the nose is pointed at the ground and the ground is moving counterclockwise in the windscreen. To make matters worse there was no responce to the control inputs. Classic spin indications. The drill then is to place the control wheel (stick) in the neutral position, bring the power back to idle, apply full opposite rudder untill the spin stops, rudder to neutral while leveling the wings, then gently pull back on the control wheel (stick) to recover from the dive, then restore power once straight and level. ( But then you knew all that, right?) That was mid afternoon on a clear day. I had about 30 hours at that time and was alone.It would be alot tougher at night in haze with a couple of screaming passengers but, it could be done. As they say... Practice makes perfect. Another saying is: Watch thyne airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee.

Good Luck, blue skys, and tail winds, John F.

-- John F. (tinfoil hats @nd colanders.com), July 21, 1999.

Dave,

Just a note to clarify. The TV segment was today. The inadvertent spin entry was about 15 years ago.

John F.

-- John F. (tinfoil hats @nd colanders.com), July 21, 1999.