A Blast From The Past (1929)

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Food for thought, next time you listen to a Wall Street Shill or Economist !!


"Politics in government will NEVER allow accurate information."

- Herbert Hoover, U.S. President in 1929


"We will not have any more crashes in our time."

- John Maynard Keynes in 1927


"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.

- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist in 1929


"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics in Autumn, 1929


"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. In economics in early 1930


"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression ... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game ... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."

Business Week, November 2, 1929


"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism ... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."

Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929


"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst - and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.

Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1. 1930


"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929


"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."

Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929


"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."

Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University - November 14, 1929


"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"

E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30- 1929


"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan ...that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.

R. W. McNeel - market anakyst - as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929


"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic - which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."

- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929


On loan from another excellent forum.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 19, 1999


Is it that people don't realize what is happening to them when it is happening from an historical perspective, or historical perspectives are invariable wrong?

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), July 19, 1999.

No, the problem is that the future is uncertain.

People assign probabilities to events occuring at future points in time, but no one is 100% certain.

This is actually the largest problem associated with Y2K for the financial markets if very few "physical" Y2K problems occur. This is why Gallup did its poll at the behest of the Fed and Treasury and the bankers. The uncertainty of readiness will cause the risk-averse to hedge their bets, pulling money out of the market by Q4 '99. Some money managers have already announced their intentions to follow this type of strategy.

Get some cash, and get it SLOWLY out of the system and into your hands. Buy gold coins if you can, but make sure that you have enough food and water for whatever you expect to occur first.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 19, 1999.

I have already been *warned* by my IRA custodial agent to panic now and avoid the rush, delays, increased costs of cashing out later in the game.

This was in the form of a statement at the bottom of a brochure, which, if anyone needs the exact verbage, I will most certainly oblige.

-- Glober (globe-ular@bigfoot.com), July 19, 1999.

Isn't it just amazing. You could easily take these statements and attach familiar names to them, and they would be completely genuine. Koskinen. Flint. Poole. Paul Davis. Decker.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

Got a real shocker from my mother's financial advisor. She has been using this same broker and firm for 20 years, and NEVER has he ever put her into anything but bonds, utilities, "safe" stuff. He called her up 4 days ago and said "I think it's time to put X% of your money into T-bills". Yet, just 3 or 4 months earlier when specifically asked about Y2K (by mother) he said all was well with "all" the companies he dealt with. I am so glad she is following *his* advice, I've been telling her for months to start getting some cash. She is now listening. Wonder what made him have a change of confidence????

-- Sammie (sammie0X@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.

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