ASCII founder comments Wash. Post!! Sun.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Ladies and gentlemen of the y2k jury-would you be so kind as to convey your thoughts about this Mans comments and the degree of substance you would give them! Thank you" Robert Bemer, the original Y2K whistleblower, lives in a spectacular home on a cliff overlooking a lake two hours west of a major American city. We are not being specific because Bemer has made this a condition of the interview. We can say the car ride to his town is unrelievedly horizontal. The retail stores most in evidence are fireworks stands and taxidermists.
In his driveway, Bemer's car carries the vanity tag "ASCII." He is the man who wrote the American Standard Code for Information Interchange, the language through which different computer systems talk to each other. He also popularized the use of the backslash, and invented the "escape" sequence in programming. You can thank him, or blaspheme him, for the ESC key.
In the weenieworld of data processing, he is a minor deity.
We had guessed Bemer would be reassuring about the Y2K problem.
Our first question is why the heck he recently moved from a big city all the way out to East Bumbleflop, U.S.A.
It's a good place to be next New Year's Eve, he says. From a kitchen drawer he extracts two glass cylinders about the size of the pneumatic-tube capsules at a drive-through teller. Each is filled with what appears to be straw.
"They're Danish," he says. "They cost $500. We ran water with cow[poop] through them and they passed with flying colors."
They're filters, to purify water. If Y2K is as bad as he fears, he says, cocking a thumb toward his backyard, "we can drain the lake."
Bemer is 79. He looks flinty, like an aging Richard Boone still playing Paladin.
He has started a company, Bigisoft, that sells businesses a software fix for the Y2K problem. So, for selfish reasons, he doesn't mind if there is widespread concern over Y2K, though he swears he really thinks it is going to be bad. That's why he has requested that we not mention the town in which he lives. He doesn't want nutballs descending on him in the hellish chaos of Jan. 1, somehow blaming him"
Is it just me or should people pay a little attention to this Guys Comments??
-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), July 18, 1999
Although I expect war to result from Y2K, resulting in numerous "Bad Hair Days", I don't see any reason to care what this guy thinks.He is credited with coming-up with the ASCII code, a list of 128 entries mapping a character such as "A" or "a" to a decimal number for encoding in a computer. Woopie. BFD.
Perhaps if the guy at IBM who created the EBCDIC code (IBM's equivalent of the ASCII code) is putting everything he has into the market, thinking Y2K is a hoax, we should all forget this Y2K thing.
Creation of the ASCII or EBCDIC code-set is a mundane clerical task. Any computer built since the invention of Assembly-language has such a code-set.
-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), July 18, 1999.
A 99,You are a moron Sir. Go and do something that the people will still remember in 30, 40, 50 or more years. Then you can make statements like that. Not before. You Sir are a nothing one of those minor and minisculus elements that doesn't amount to anything. All you can do is putting people down.
-- Paul (meanert@yahoo.com), July 18, 1999.
This was discussed on Y2K News Radio recently. Might even have been the show with Rick Cowles on it. They said that early on Bemer was looked to (much as Bill Gates was) to provide a "silver bullet" and fix the problem. Now he has moved to the boonies, has pallets of stored food, water filters etc.Might be considered by some to be a clue-by-four. ??
Oh.. another clue-by-four. On some show I heard that some seller of body armour (bullet-proof vests) said that an unusually high number of his sales were to programmers. I happened to meet him yesterday at when I attended my first ever gun show. Small world. He confirmed the story. Similar story at places selling storable food. Unusually high percentages of sales to programmers.
Guess he couldn't afford an island.
-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 18, 1999.
Sure screwed up typing that. Hope you could make sense of it. The island quip should have followed the 1st paragraph.
-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 18, 1999.
How the in the hell does a guy who sells body armour know that he is selling to programmers? I've never heard of having to give your job title to buy a bullet proof vest. It's not like they do an FBI beckground check you know?My theory? This guy wants to boost sales by spreading fear into the hearts of Y2K alarmists. "Oh yeah, I've been selling all these things to programmers, they MUST know what is going down", he'll say.
And some techno weenie selling his home in L.A. or whereever to go live in the country? If that is a sign of the Apocalypse then C.B. DeMille could have saved himself a lot of money when he made "The Ten Commandments".
Sounds like the ususal Y2K hype. Absolutely nothing to do with computers and yet somehow there are people out there who take these kinds of developments as law.
-- (you know@who.com), July 18, 1999.
Link?:)
-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 18, 1999.
David:Bemer is more notably recognized as the person who provided the 4- digit picture clause for dates, and began in 1960 lobbying for its use as a standard. I guess he could be considered to have an ax to grind when his standard was NOT recognized, but I guess one could say the same about me, as I ALSO warned managers early on that the code wouldn't work in the year 2000. Here's a link to an article that TIME ran on the history of the glitch. I found a lot of fault in their coverage of Y2k in that issue, as well as others, but their history was quite as I remember it.
I would agree with Anonymous in stating that just because this guy played a role in 1960 doesn't make him a seer today.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Here's the link for the Washington Post article.THE MILLENNIUMBUG We Know It Can Hurt Us. We Know It Didn't Have To Be. What We Didn't Know, Until Today, Was Whom We Can Blame for Letting It Loose. http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-07/18/037r-071899-idx.html
Here's another in-depth and fascinating article on the "Y2K blame game". Amazed me that the first investigative reporting on this issue came from, of all places, Vanity Fair Magazine. ========================================================
How all this happened is an unlikely story, and it begins nearly a half-century ago with a most unlikely woman. Her name was Grace Murray Hopper, and in the field of computer science there has seldom been her like. Feisty, quick tongued, and irreverent ("Life was simple before World War II," she liked to say, "after that, we had systems"), 'Amazing Grace," as colleagues called her, racked up many distinctions during her 85-year life. They included coining the phrase "computer bug" (a moth flew into one she was working on); becoming the first female admiral in the navy; and inventing the "compiler"-the software element that translates text into the is and Os a computer can understand. But the accomplishment for which Grace Hopper is best remembered was helping to create a computer code actually useful in everyday life. Its name was common business-oriented language-COBOL, for short ...
For as was disturbingly becoming apparent, "COBOL Cowboys," as rough-and-ready programmers called themselves, had worked according to whim, sometimes deliberately hiding dates (as this guaranteed they'd later need to be hired back), other times disguising them under the names of girlfriends, cars, even Star Trek characters (because this was thought idiosyncratic and amusing). Thus, "2000 - 1983 = 17" might read as "Gloria + Chevy = Spock." Not that the code needed to be so complicated.
In 1997 the Washington State Department of Social and Health Services discovered that many of its computer functions were being governed by one word: "Bob." ...
GREAT ARTICLE - Definitely worth reading. http://www.wild2k.com/database/vanityfair.html Vanity Fair (Jan '99)
-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), July 18, 1999.
Absolutely nothing to do with computers and yet somehow there are people out there who take these kinds of developments as law.Typical Pollyanna hype.
There are people who take these, not as law, but as clue. As in, why don't you get one?
-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), July 18, 1999.
Cheryl:I don't think we were THAT bad [grin], but I remember that article well. It was quite good. Vanity Fair Article
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Oops! I should have checked the link Cheryl provided before making a hot link out of it. Cheryl: Is it simply too old?
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
I would agree with Anonymous in stating that just because this guy played a role in 1960 doesn't make him a seer today.-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Anita
I read the article and he was not asked to be a "seer" but to provide information on the origin of the problem in the 50s - 60s. Mind you it sounds like some kind of wisdom to move from the city to a lakeside home regardless of Y2K.
-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 18, 1999.
Hotlink to the Washington Article and my favorite quote.THE MILLENNIUMBUG
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-07/18/ 037r-071899-idx.html
"No one wanted the Millennium Bug. No one hatched it. But no one bottled it up when they had the chance, and here it is.
It's the same way with warfare: No one wants it. Everyone tries to avoid it. And here it is.
The Y2K problem is not a computer problem, after all. It was not hard-wired into the mechanical brains themselves, as some have contended. It was hard-wired into the human brain. We want to be enlightened. But our wisdom falls victim to greed and hostility and covetousness and expedience. It's human nature."
Yes that Vanity Fair link is dead. Here is the current link.wild2k Database: The Y2K Nightmare
-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 18, 1999.
David:I certainly would hope that if I am fortunate enough to live to be 79 that I will be in a position to live wherever I choose also. Perhaps I misinterpreted your thoughts when you said:
"Is it just me or should people pay a little attention to this Guys Comments??"
It's for that reason that I suggested that he was no better nor worse a seer at this time.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita,I am not a programmer- I own a telecom business and have four kids! I made the assumption that this guy Bemer is not a Cultist,prophet,doomer,wacko etc. but instead an intelligent,respected,knowledgeable,informed,wise,mind. If he is showing a post reporter a water filter and mentioning that he EXPECTS big problems. Then deductive reasoning leads me to construe that he may KNOW something. reference, the Morton thiokol engineer who warned NASA, he knew something, but nobody listened.
-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), July 18, 1999.
David:I understand. Folks would like to believe that there's SOMEONE...ANYONE...who KNOWS something. The awful truth is, David, that it's ALL conjecture at this point, and folks can play sides based on their knowledge of the glitch, the knowledge of those they know, the knowledge of those they've read, the knowledge of what they've SEEN, and the presumed knowledge of which they've heard. None of it all COMBINED amounts to knowledge of what will happen.
I have the same experience in IT as Cory states HE has....yet we both see Y2k unfolding differently. I don't believe Cory, and he doesn't believe me. Is one of us correct and the other incorrect? Who knows? It's for THIS reason that I feel that NO ONE person can presume to be a SEER. It's for this SAME reason that two folks can review the very same information and draw different conclusions.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
"You are a moron Sir. "I agree. Fat too.
But even us mo-rons don't think the technical issues inherant in a table mapping 128 characters to binary numbers is a big deal. People with a normal IQ of 100 probably are even less impressed.
On the other hand, the business savy, and marketing skills involved in getting a large segment of the industry (non-IBM) to settle on a character set is impressive.
-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), July 18, 1999.
Anita,"It's for this SAME reason that two folks can review the very same information and draw different conclusions" I agree--unfortunately the INFORMATION that is being reviewed and drawing differing conclusions is an unprecedented phenomenom that has the INCONCLUSIVE potential to change our lives profoundly. It is this inconclusive potential that is being debated. I am not comfortable ignoring the inconclusive information. It really is that simple. If the weather man says Snow storm MAY dump a foot of snow on are area, I'm the freak that stays up all night waiting and preparing. Just my nature! Regards David
-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), July 18, 1999.
It never ceases to amaze me.Here is a man who has (1) lived through WWII, (2) saw the post-war boom first hand, (3) watched the panic and terror of the Cuban Missle Crisis, (4) saw the incredible 21% inflation of the Carter years, (5) experienced the equally incredible governement debt expansion of the post-Reagan years, (6)had the sense to go into computers when they were the scarce toys of the elite, (7) invented a way of using those computers that has influenced EVERYBODY who uses computers today, (8) invested his money well enough that he's got enough to be able to make a major home move at an age when most people just want to make it to the senior center for lunch.
Maybe, instead of reducing this man to "just some guy" whose contributions aren't so big, or ignoring the wisdom he has acquired with his years ----
Maybe, just maybe, you ought to listen to what he has to say. He's clearly speaking from deep experience.
Anita Evangelista
(The Other Anita)
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 18, 1999.
David:There's absolutely NOTHING wrong with your logic. I'm of the same mind. If there's a POSSIBILITY that my power will go out, water, etc., it only makes sense to prepare for that possibility.
Anita:
I DEFINITELY believe folks should listen to what Bemer has to say. My only point in all of this was that ONE person would NOT have the "silver bullet" answer to all of this...as presented in their words OR their actions.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Brian:Please forgive me for addressing my answer to David rather than you.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita Spooner said:"The awful truth is, David, that it's ALL conjecture at this point, and folks can play sides based on their knowledge of the glitch, the knowledge of those they know, the knowledge of those they've read, the knowledge of what they've SEEN, and the presumed knowledge of which they've heard. None of it all COMBINED amounts to knowledge of what will happen."
----> "...amounts to knowledge of what will happen"???? You're correct, no one has absolute KNOWLEDGE. However, some people are much better at understanding INFERENCES than others -- people like Ed Yardeni, who seems to be able to understand the directions the stock market is moving (past 10,000, per his "prediction", while other analysts said it couldn't do so).
Does Mr. Bemer have KNOWLEDGE of the future? No, certainly not.
But, with his KNOWLEDGE of the past, he has adequately demonstrated his capacity to understand INFERENCES, and has clearly acted according to his understanding.
Should this be a clue to the rest of us?
You can decide for yourself. AND Anita Spooner said: "I DEFINITELY believe folks should listen to what Bemer has to say. My only point in all of this was that ONE person would NOT have the "silver bullet" answer to all of this...as presented in their words OR their actions."
----> All right. "ONE person" doesn't have the "silver bullet" answer. Would "two" be enough? How about "three"? Say, Mr. Bemer AND a successful author of 25 books on software (such as Ed Yourdon), AND a successful multimillionaire business man (Joe Orlando, who just moved to rural Tennessee)?
Is three not enough? Would ten be convincing? A hundred?
How about "minor successes" such as the CEO of my local hospital -- if he was storing a ton and a half of dehydrated food in his rural home, would that be enough of a clue? (He is.)
Could it be possible that some people actually are smarter, or more capable, or more discerning, or have better inside info, than we are or have? And that we could do well to learn from their example?
Some people only require a small light to find their way in the darkness. For others, a search-light isn't enough to see by.....
Anita Evangelista
The Other Anita
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 18, 1999.
I agree with Anite E., we had better all listen to what the man has to say.
-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita:I'm not here to engage in a "pissing contest." I could very well argue that there are thousands upon thousands of folks with credentials as eloquent as those you mentioned who are NOT doing these things. I could very well argue that there are thousands upon thousands of programmers who see Y2k as simply another project to be completed by a deadline. What would be the point?
Do what you feel you need to do, based on whatever information you feel comfortable. Is there heresy in this statement?
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita Spooner said:"I'm not here to engage in a "pissing contest." I could very well argue that there are thousands upon thousands of folks with credentials as eloquent as those you mentioned who are NOT doing these things. I could very well argue that there are thousands upon thousands of programmers who see Y2k as simply another project to be completed by a deadline. What would be the point?
----> Not only "could" you argue these points -- you just DID. For someone who "doesn't want to engage in a p***ing contest", you certainly were willing to start the first disingenuous trickle.
Because Y2k is historically unprecedented, it clearly requires a unique capacity to understand the potentials of the problem. Some of this unique capacity comes from personal experience -- and people who have lived long, complex lives obviously have greater experience to draw upon.
People whose lives have centered on a single occupation, their 401K, and career climbing cannot have the capacity to see a picture bigger than their experience....because they have never cultivated it. The vast majority of people, as can readily be seen by historical example, do not grasp, understand, predict, nor cogitate well -- and in our marvelous age of instant gratification, instant answers, and instant meals, we are woefully lacking (as a group) in even the most basic KNOWLEDGE of something as intimate as how our food gets to the table.
We cannot trust the capacity of the majority to correctly understand y2k -- or any other major issue -- since the majority is too busy with "their lives" to give it any thought.
We can only look to people who have DEMONSTRATED their capacity to "see outside the box" for possible insights into this very-outside-the-box problem. People like Bemer, Orlando, Yourdon, and Yardeni. You know these people's names because they ARE better at what they do than the "thousands and thousands of programmers" who don't have a clue.
In any case, you failed to answer "how many" it would take to satisfy you that there might be something worth believing in what they say. I suspect you ignored this point because there is NO number of authorities in any field that you trust beyond your own knowledge. There are drawbacks to that position, you know....it's called "a closed mind".
Anita Spooner also said: "Do what you feel you need to do, based on whatever information you feel comfortable. Is there heresy in this statement?"
---->"Heresy" is a religious concept. This is not a religion.
We are talking about a man, wise in experience and heavy with years, who thinks y2k is going to be a disaster...and whether he may be a good prognosticator or not. By converting a discussion about this man's abilities into talk of "heresy", I am undecided as to whether you yourself treat preparedness as a religion, or if you are simply being silly or amusing.
In either case, preparedness now has gone beyond your simplistic "do what you feel you need to do." We're not talking about "feelings", here. We're talking about John Koskinen's office staff telling State Reps to 'prepare for 3 weeks without power' -- that's not a "feeling". We're talking "brownouts, blackouts", "winter storms" (on top of REAL winter) -- none of these are "feelings". These are effects in the world of REALITY, which require preparations in REALITY....and all we've talked about is electricity here. What about everything else?
This is not "p***ing". This is not "feelings". These are critical decisions that will affect people's lives, and their children's lives, for years to come. We cannot take ANY of this lightly.
Anita Evangelista
The Other Anita
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita:Forgive me if I had ASSUMED that when David began this thread he offered the opportunity to respond to anyone interested. Forgive me also if I stepped on your belief system. I believe I have EVERY right to call it a belief system based on the vigor of your reply.
I have absolutely NO problem with you preparing for what you feel most comfortable. I have absolutely NO problem with your sharing your beliefs with others in the hope that they follow suit. If you feel I did, I sincerely apologize. If you'd like me to cry "UNCLE" from the rooftops, I think I could accommodate that also. I most certainly would agree that you feel contemptuous towards the comments I've made on this thread.
I'm certainly NOT unshakable in my beliefs. I HAVE prepared for Y2k (a topic never mentioned in this thread). I simply must be getting my information regarding the outcome from a different source? I guess it's unclear why I've enraged you so. I assure you, however, that I will NOT respond to you again. Your posts will go the way of Ray, George, and Gordon in that respect.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 18, 1999.
Do you know how much fun this forum is to read in the middle of a second bottle of porter after my wife has left me with the house to myself for 24 hours? you folks are trippin me out...Deep breath. whew...
Multiple Anitas! LOL!!! I'm seeing double!! Our forum: ain't it a hoot! keep on keepin' on one and all.
-- not so (sure@all.anymore), July 18, 1999.
Related links of possible interest:Who Gave Us The Two-Digit Year?
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2782History of 2 Digits: The Government's Records Are About To Be Shredded
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2803February 13, 1984 article by Bill Schoen
http://www.computerworld.com/home/features.nsf/all/980803schoenPeter de Jager's September 6, 1993 article "Doomsday 2000"
http://year2000.com/y2kdoomsday.html"The Year 2000 does not compute" - CNN - January 1996
http://cnn.com/TECH/9601/2000/index.html And as others have mentioned, the January Vanity Fair article covered the origins and history of the Y2K problem quite well.
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 18, 1999.
Bemer's for real. His company Bigisoft is for real. Their main problem is providing a proprietary fix to organizations who don't want to admit they need it. Another issue is that the product only addresses COBOL apps. How it works: "embeds" a century bit into date fields using copy member offsets, replaces an OS routine to intercept calls to those areas and passes the correct info to the app above. Not exactly sure how it tracks changes in working storage. No source needed but does require a modified OS layer. Once you've converted your data, you're a customer for life!At least he is trying to cope with the issue which is more than i can say for most of the air bags that dismiss him.
br14
-- br14 (br14@bout.done), July 18, 1999.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com),Thanks for the responce. I understand the way you and Flint approach the matter although Cory is more of a "rally the troops" kind of guy (he's a 7 in Washington DC?). I like Hoffs style the best for a "quasie" polly. Put the details out so everyone can take a look. Where I live our power, telco, banks, food chain, government is very open about where they are at and what they are doing. This is good. It is the way it should be. But this is not the case in health care, S&MEs and the municipal level in some local towns (not mine).
-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 18, 1999.
"From a kitchen drawer he [Robert Bemer] extracts two glass cylinders about the size of the pneumatic-tube capsules at a drive-through teller. Each is filled with what appears to be straw. ""They're Danish," he says. "They cost $500. We ran water with cow[poop] through them and they passed with flying colors."
What I would like to know is the brand name and where one can get them.
-- A (A@AisA.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita Spooner said:"Forgive me....Forgive me...I believe...call it a belief system... feel...sharing your beliefs...hope...If you feel I did... feel contemptuous...."
---->Amazing, once again, that you can use the language of religion to state your "beliefs", but cannot see that your own position is deeply religious. In psychology, ascribing one's own unpalatable motives to another is called "projection".....
Anita Spooner also said: "I'm certainly NOT unshakable in my beliefs. I HAVE prepared for Y2k (a topic never mentioned in this thread)."
---->Not only is y2k mentioned in this thread, it is the topic of this forum. Perhaps you "believed" you were somewhere else?
Anita Spooner also said: "I simply must be getting my information regarding the outcome from a different source? I guess it's unclear why I've enraged you so. I assure you, however, that I will NOT respond to you again. Your posts will go the way of Ray, George, and Gordon in that respect."
---->I'll help you understand why I have attempted to refute your position (not "enraged", if you please) -- I DO have a deep and religious belief in some pretty antiquated concepts: truth, honesty, personal insight, and the pursuit of accuracy. I find it profoundly offensive when bright people use their gift of intelligence to mislead, to distort information, and to provoke discord. I am, of course, speaking of yourself.
It does not surprize me that you have chosen "not to respond" to my posts and those others with whom your "beliefs" disagree -- it's pretty easy to take the low road, when you have little of substance to offer.
When you are blinded by your "beliefs", it's hard to deal with substance, isn't it?
Anita Evangelista
The Other Anita
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 18, 1999.
Anita Evangelista, short and sweet baby! You chopped "the other one" down to size. It was high time for a clear-thinking Anita to show up loud and clear on this forum. Thank you. Stick around please, as we are getting to the Y2K end game and polly/trolls are getting pretty desperate with their emotional/intellectual confusions.
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 19, 1999.
Hi George:Thanks. I've been here since March 98 -- when five posts a day was a Big Deal. Sometimes get distracted into the World Of Reality, and don't post for long periods.
Hey, are you the "George" to whom my namesake alluded? If so, I congratulate you -- you must have struck a chord. Apparently, if A. Spooner can't answer your posts, she gets huffy and won't talk to you.
Good way to "protect your beliefs" is never give it any deep thought, eh?
Anita Evangelista
-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 19, 1999.
Yes. I'm the George! I've been around this forum since March '99 (one whole year later than you) and I gather that you were away during the last three months or so. Your input is certainly valid Anita E. so please hang around will ya?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 19, 1999.