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Company Press Release

SOURCE: Allied Business Intelligence, Inc.

Expect Deadly Energy Shortages - They Are Here to Stay, ABI Says

OYSTER BAY, N.Y., July 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The phrases are now familiar: ``rolling blackouts,'' ``low voltage,'' and ``brownouts.'' All of the terms will become more common due to one fact: the next five years will be filled with nationwide energy shortages caused by an unprepared US power industry. ``These energy shortages are just symptomatic of a situation that is going to get much worse before it gets better,'' said ABI senior analyst Mike Kujawa. Kujawa authored a recently released ABI report which spelled out how the nation's energy demands are now exceeding the existing energy supply.

In anticipation of the new competitive nature of the energy industry, utilities stopped building power plants about a decade ago, waiting to see how the new world of deregulation panned out. However, the booming economy of the past ten years saw energy needs continue to grow at a rapid pace.

As billions of dollars are invested by 400 independent power producers nationwide, still not enough is being done. The study shows that over a hundred billion dollars must be put into new power generation capability by 2010 to meet demand.

Markets for fuel cells, microturbines, cogeneration, and wind turbines will climb into the tens of billions of dollars annually by 2010. All either reduce or eliminate the emissions associated with power production. ``Wind turbines alone could supply the US with much of its needed capacity, for example,'' Kujawa said. For congested areas with constrained power and gas distribution capacity, distributed generation technologies are likely to be the only way out of the current situation.

The present equipment of choice, large gas turbines, is in short supply. There is not enough manufacturing capacity to satisfy demand for large gas turbines in the US while maintaining market position in other countries. Another traditional energy source -- coal -- has seen its use stop growing due to global warming while a newer energy source -- nuclear energy -- is seen as too dangerous.

The study, ``Power Generation Opportunities in a Restructured Environment,'' addresses the causes of the regular power shortages now part of the national power supply grid. The situation is creating large markets for a number of new power marketers and electricity production technologies.

Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think-tank which publishes strategic research on the broadband, wireless, electronics, automation, energy and transportation industries. Details of these studies can be found at http://www.alliedworld.com. Or call 516-624-3113 for more info.

SOURCE: Allied Business Intelligence, Inc.

-- flb (fben4077@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999

Answers

I saw the last 20 minutes of a Senate hearing on C-Span today on this very subject. The one thing that hit home to me was the statement that the power lines were designed to carry today's load only in emergency situations. In other words, they are carrying far more than they were built to carry in a continuous manner. The panel discussed the various problems of stringing more lines, ie., having to buy up property, meet enviro conditions, etc. The trend will be to move the power source closer to the power needs rather than transmit long distances.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), July 16, 1999.

I believe the future will belong to fuel cell technology. A company called Plug Power has recently been bought by GE - they are now testing home-sized fuel cells that are run on propane,natural gas and maybe hydrogen(I'm not sure on that one) They have a web site. This fuel cell produces electricity that you can use at your house with no modifications on your wiring,etc. Its by-product is water and possibly heat-not sure on the heat. I would love to give one a test run. Imagine the benefits of not having to depend on overhead lines - I understand that the USA has much more natural gas reserves than oil, and it is cheaper to recover and use. It can't get here too fast.

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), July 16, 1999.

Taz, the current maxed out status of distribution lines is a key Y2K factor that pollys tend to wipe under the rug. Dan the Power Man, Rick Cowles, et al conveniently forget to mention that re-routing power supply will eventually mean exceeding allowable set points through many key nodes on the grid which may turn out to be the real killers even if Y2K turns out to be a 1-2-or 3.

Good point Taz.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 16, 1999.

I'm building a new Pentium Xeon workstaion. Where can I plug it in? Oh yea, I put up a new Exchange server at work this week, already plugged in, 24x7. And we have a new programmer starting Monday. Where can I plug his new computer in? Oops, installed another ethernet hub last week, already plugged in, 24x7.

Damn, going to be 100 degrees tomorrow here in NJ. Better check out my air conditioner... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.

Sys,

You know "I luv ya man," but I haven't a clue as to what you just said. 'Care to repeat it in English? :)

For what it's worth, my opinion about fuel cells is that they are going to go gangbusters. I've been studying the technology on behalf of clients for about five years.

'Wish I had one hooked up to my home. I've already volunteered to be a guinea pig, but I think the utilities (the smarter ones are already involved in joint-ventures with folks like Ballard, Plug Power, etc.) but haven't heard back from my utility yet (Detroit Edison).

Fuel cells. What a concept. "Clear and clean and no caffeine."

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 16, 1999.

I just got back from a week-long trip that took me through Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Oregon. One thing that struck me as I was driving those long, straight roads over miles and miles of uninhabited land was the vulnerability of the power transmission towers, and the transmission lines.

There they are, sitting out on the grasslands, wide open for anyone with a little bit of explosives and a bad attitude. You can't realize at the gut level how easy it would be to cut off power to whole regions of the country until you go out there and look for yourself. See it. Firsthand.

Believe me, you have to see it to believe it. I study solar dynamics, which is a study of how the sun, and similar stars work. I examine, on paper, forces that could and would easily engulf and incinerate the Earth in a heartbeat.

These titanic forces defy human understanding. So, we use math as a tool to deal with them. But, we don't really understand them in the same way as we would understand the pain of a bashed knee from a bicycle spill, of a mashed thumb that just got hit with a hammer.

It is only until I experience, first hand, the effects of the pitiful attempts that man tries to make to duplicate some of those weakest forces with his chemistry and productive capacity that I realize how futile it is for me to try and understand, at the gut level, at the instinctual level, how puny and insignificant are those attempts to duplicate the energies released by our sun every second.

And, with that in mind, how puny and insignificant is our planet, and everything encompassed by it.

The isolation, accessibility, and resultant vulnerability of the electrical transmission system is like that.

In short, it's wide open.

And so are we.

-- LP (soldog@nohotmail.com), July 17, 1999.

LP,

Power grid vulnerability to terrorists is not isolated to the hinterlands. Drive around your urban/suburban areas and you find sub-stations sitting along side the road with nothing but chain link fences for security. Explosives or RPG's could easily knock these facilities out.

The same is true for tank farms ( gas & oil ) . Where I live there are several areas where the main roads literally drive right through huge tank farms, with tanks within 50 yards of the road. It scares me to drive anywhere near these refineries and tank farms.

As much as I often worry about abuse of power at agencies like the FBI and BATF, we all have to admit that they hae done a superb job intercepting terrorists before they attack.

If anyone thinks that there have not been attempts at such terrorism, they are kidding themselves.

I think I will be holed up in my basement 12/31 for the night!

-- (Minuteman@Concord.com), July 17, 1999.

LP,

I think I love you.

-- humility (is@real.virtue), July 18, 1999.