This is for morons like "Cess" poole and flint who cite their childish mantra that 'problems' happen all the time and we can fix them quickly".

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Experts mull potential domino effect of system failures By Stan Runyon and Craig Matsumoto EE Times (07/09/99, 4:06 p.m. EDT)

The intertwining of systems of all sorts calls for consideration of the ripple effect of any given change or failure, Duffy warned. "It used to be that if a board failed, O.K., so your TV didn't work anymore," he said. But increasingly, "you have to walk your way through all the consequences of [your] decisions."

Some experts, including Duffy himself, cite credible evidence that systems are becoming more reliable relative to their complexity.

But the world population's increasing reliance on systems  and the systems' increasing reliance on one another  breeds vulnerability. "With the rising complexity of global systems such as the Internet and power grids, the threat and impact of failures is increasing," warned Donald A. Norman, a consultant and author of numerous books on design. "We are getting to the point where we will see complex systems problems the likes of which we have never seen before, and we lack the scientific background to understand them."

"In the 1970s, Duffy recalled, statisticians calculated that if all electricity were cut off, 30 percent of the population would be dead within a month. Within a year, 80 percent would be dead."

"We get up in the morning, and we won't make it to the end of the day unless all these systems are up and running. It's truly scary. And that was back in the 1970s  hell, now it's worse," Duffy said. He has no magic formula for coping with the potential catastrophes simmering under all our system complexity."

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The bottom line is that nowhere near enough has been done. Not even in the ballpark, globally. It is going down big time.

"In the 1970s, Duffy recalled, statisticians calculated that if all electricity were cut off, 30 percent of the population would be dead within a month. Within a year, 80 percent would be dead."

I think the juice is going out for over a month. And yes, I think that there will be untold millions dead in the US alone. I shudder to think of what that means globally.

Oh, and pre-emtively, flint, kiss my ass.

http://www.eetimes.com/story/industry/systems_and_software_news/OEG19990709S0029

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), July 15, 1999

Answers

Hmmm. . . I hope this article sends y2k researchers looking for the original study this is based on, and then that it gets published to the web soonest.

Robert Waldrop http://www.justpeace.org/printflyers.htm Printable flyers for distribution during y2k disruptions

-- robert waldrop (rmwj@soonernet.com), July 15, 1999.

You are correct. And the reason is that every organization is in denial. The alternative is to admit publicly that they may not be able to continue business as normal next year. THE HORROR, OH, THE HORROR. (it's hard to do a gravelley voice in all caps).

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 15, 1999.

Paul M. You won't be able to reach the pollys. Saw them at McDonalds getting their Happy Meals.

-- jaime estrada (beseme@dedo.net), July 15, 1999.

>Oh, and pre-emtively, flint, kiss my ass.

Thank you, Paul. You're a man after my own heart.

Best laugh I've had in days.

-Greybear, are we gettin to know each other here or what?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), July 16, 1999.

>Oh, and pre-emtively, flint, kiss my ass.

PULEEEEZE let it be only AFTER Greybear and Paul have downed significant portions of Greybear's famous Fort Worth Chili and Beans with Extra Onions and washed it all down with a case of Bud.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 16, 1999.

what could possibly' kill-off 80% of mankind? asteroid,s'nuclear biggee'plagues'pestilence'water worldwide polluted'famine'it,s all coming to-gether.maybe them PROPHETS new something.the next few year,s should be mighty interesting.GOD BLESS us ALL,the plump'the short & the tall.

-- is this it? (dogs@zianet.com), July 16, 1999.

Green beer, boiled eggs, and cabbage. With popcorn for desert.

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), July 16, 1999.

(ahem) You guys are too much. Wiping tear from laughing eye.

Just wanted to invite you to a real life picture of dominoes falling now, due to the emerging rail problems. It's on a thread I started entitled (something like) "Is local computer-caused rail yard mess only local?"

Go ahead, get back to your fun. Such a welcome relief some days!

-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.

INVAR,

You think you're so clever with your crude attempts at humor trying to impress Diane with your version of wit. Why not stay on topic once in a while and impress everyone with your intelligence instead of making an ass of yourself. Have a nice day.

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), July 16, 1999.

and Bagga....just what intelligent contribution did you make?

As North rightly has pointed out all along.....its 'systemic' stupid.

"Thirty days without power will kill millions".... is hard to conceptualize until you realize how fast disease will spread with sewage facilities down and people drinking bad water.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 16, 1999.

Invar, Greybear, and Jimmy

Are the boys back in town? Good to hear from you INVAR, hope all is well. The 80% casulty rate should give the Pollys something to rant over. FYI, check out the July 13 Jeff Rense real audio file with Geri Guidetti at http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/99archives.stm

It adds fuel to the fire.

-- trafficjam (judgementday@ahead.soon), July 16, 1999.

Hi folks,

I just returned from a trip out east via Amtrak. At one point we had to wait two hours for another train to pass us. The rail yards were filled with boxcars, all loaded with no place to go. Building materials, chemicals, you name it! Some of these trains had dozens of cars and were going NOWHERE. We saw cars that were beginning to rust. It looked like they had not been used in ages. It was an unbelievable mess!! It took 6 extra hours to reach our destination. Wisconsin to Pennsylvania. Also, we had a power outage here for an hour last night. Although I'm prepared for these outages, it was still pretty damn annoying...and it only last ONE HOUR!

-- Viewer (SawITfirstHand@PA.com), July 16, 1999.

"In the 1970s, Duffy recalled, statisticians calculated that if all electricity were cut off, 30 percent of the population would be dead within a month. Within a year, 80 percent would be dead."

Three months of water doesn't sound like enough anymore, does it?

I hate it when the story gets worse.

I'll say that I think, if anything, Paule Milne is the closest to what can potentially happen.

The government may well colapse, but I don't think it will turn into an infomagic devolutionary spin.

And if the government colapses there will be enough cohesivness on a comunity level that it will only be a matter of time before the country returns to a Federal Form of Government. I'm hoping through all of this that it will be much closer to the original intent of the founders.

And of course I hope I'm alive.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), July 16, 1999.

I don't know Hale. Seems to me you may have just described the scenerio present in the movie, "The Postman".

Gotta horse?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 16, 1999.

Dearest Mr. Milne,

As an expert on the domino effect, would you please explain how the chernobyl virus strike in asia has "dominoed"?

Preemptively "thank you"

-- CIH (win95@asia.com), July 16, 1999.

Twas only a short time before the Death Polls on csy2k and here were proved potentially Polly.

The heavily weighted, chip-webbed carrying capacity of 1999 is exponentially more complex, interweaved and critical than the nascent systems of the 70s.

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 16, 1999.

The stated facts in the original post scares me. I mean really scares me. How can I potect everyone I love? I don't want millions to die! It is so hard to present these facts to people who look at me like I'm just a loon. My biggest fear these days is my fear of being right. After reading articles like this I go and do more preparing. Thanks Mr. Paul for scaring me. I figure each of these type posts helps me save a few more people.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), July 16, 1999.

Carol,

God bless you.

You and every positive step you take to make your life and those around you better.

Prepare. Prepare others.

If you don't, you have failed not only society, but yourself.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), July 16, 1999.

Carol - Yes, " hard to present these fact to people, who look at you like you are a loon". It's the inverse of the Big Lie theory. People will more easily believe a big, bold, outrageous lie than a little fib. They won't think anyone would dare to make up something so outrageous.

In this case, people will NOT believe a big, bold, outrageous truth because they are already sure that it COULDN'T be true.

And underneath of that lies the fact that people will believe anything, lie or truth, if they hear it all day everyday on TV and in the newspaper headlines and all the authorities have their stories coordinated. As in "Wag the Dog", if you saw it on TV, that proves it's true.

-- Alonzo W. Wight (alonzow@usa.net), July 16, 1999.

My new favorite quote:

"All truth passes through 3 stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self- evident." --- Arthur Schopenhauer

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), July 17, 1999.