For you newcomers, this post was generated by what our resident pollyanna Flint calls Methodical trolls, who he says create "posts carefully constructed to champion extreme viewpoints and discredit anything else. These posts tend to apply the Rules of Disinformation literally."

Here is the post, you be the judge:

Subject:	More Evidence That Things Are Going Badly
Date:	1999/07/10
Author:	Paul Milne <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

The Gartner Groups Y2K update, presented to the US Senate, places Israel in the group of best-prepared countries. The group includes Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, Britain and the US.   The countries are listed in descending order, which means that Israel is eighth, whereas the US has only the 12th place worldwide.   http://www.globes.co.il/cgi-bin/Serve_Arena/pages/English/1.2.1.7   =============   Gartner places the USA BEHIND Britain in preparation.   Yet, we have just read this:   Major Firms Risk Y2K Demise By Steve Gold, Newsbytes July 08, 1999     Almost one third of Britain's top 1,000 companies are failing in their battle with the Y2K issue on their information technology (IT) systems. As a result, many of them will face the ultimate punishment, bankruptcy, Robin Guenier, a leading Y2K expert, has announced.   http://www.computercurrents.com/newstoday/99/07/08/news7.html     So we have a problem here.   Gartner says that the USA, with 25% of all the code in the world is not even in the top ten as far as remediation goes. On top of that, Guinier  says that the top third of British firms are failing. For the conclusion  averse, do not read on. If the top third of British firms ARE failing , and AT THE SAME  TIME, the USA *IS* not doing as well as Britain, then we are in deep trouble.   Of course the Pollyannas WILL conclude that one or more of the premises  are not true, either that one third of British firms are NOT failing or that we are really NOT behind Britain.   You have to make up your mind. You can't have it both ways.   If the US IS behind Britain, this is serious enough all by itself, being as we have 25% of the code in the world.  If it IS true that the top third of British Companies are failing and we ARE behind them, then you have to do some serious mental gymnastics to arrive at the conclusion that things are just fine.     Paul Milne

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999

Answers

OK, I'll bite. If you replace "Netherlands" with "Holland" and "Britain" with "United Kingdom" then United States is dead last alphabetically.

Perhaps I'm being overly jingoistic here, but I thought we were in better shape than most (which still isn't saying much). Bermuda? And, Belgium was in the middle of the Euro conversion mess. I know we have a long way to go, but the order of that list was just too pat. I wonder if the author of that article was reading a little too much into Gartner's list?

To anyone from Bermuda or Belgium, if you really are in better shape and already Y2K compliant, then I will take back my negative inference and return to lurking.

-- Margaret (janssm@aol.com), July 10, 1999.

"a"- At the top of your post you wrote:

" For you newcomers, this post was generated by what our resident pollyanna Flint calls Methodical trolls, who he says create "posts carefully constructed to champion extreme viewpoints and discredit anything else. These posts tend to apply the Rules of Disinformation literally."

I admit to being confused by your phrasing but...Are you trying to put forth to newcomers that this Milne quote/comment (which you chose to single out from all the other quote/comments which Milne has produced) is actually a good representative example of what Flint meant when he defined "methodical troll"? If so, I'm sure Flint will have something to say about that (and justifiably so I would think). If I was wrong in my interpretation of what you were trying to say, then excuse me.

-- CD (not@here.com), July 10, 1999.

Gartner coloca los E.E.U.U. DETRAS de Gran Bretaqa en la preparacisn.

Todavma, tenemos justo lemmos esto:

Las Firmas Importantes Arriesgan Fallecimiento De Y2k De Steve Gold, Newsbytes De Julio El 08 De 1999

Casi un tercio de las compaqmas de la tapa 1.000 de Gran Bretaqa esta fallando en su batalla con la edicisn de Y2K en sus sistemas de la tecnologma de informacisn (IL). Consecuentemente, muchos de ellos haran frente al zltimo castigo, bancarrota, robin Guenier, experto principal de Y2K, han anunciado.

http://www.computercurrents.com/newstoday/99/07/08/news7.html

Tenemos tan un problema aqum.

Gartner dice que los E.E.U.U., con 25% de todo el csdigo en el mundo no son uniformes en los diez superiores por lo que va la remediacisn. Encima de ese, Guinier dice que el tercero superior de firmas britanicas esta fallando. Para la conclusisn contraria, no lea encendido. Si el tercero superior de firmas britanicas esta fallando, y EN EL MISMO TIEMPO, los E.E.U.U. * ES * no haciendo asm como Gran Bretaqa,

-- La Nina (X@LATION.ESPA), July 10, 1999.

CD:

I think 'a' is being methodical indeed. You have to admire it. First, he selects one of Milne's most superficially sensible posts. Second, Milne is making his argument based on two sources: Gartner and Guinier. Notice that 'a' doesn't bother to even mention that Milne has called Gartner an idiot a hundred times. Notice also that 'a' doesn't tell us that Guinier is the UK's Gary North. Third, notice the logical error in this post. It's like saying boys do better than girls at math. The worst boy at math is just awful. Therefore, all girls are worse. And finally, notice that 'a' just can't help inserting an introductory paragraph attempting to discredit my definition!

Can I nail it or what!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 10, 1999.

"a", thanks for this enlightning post. To bad we have to wade through the trolls tonight. It won't take newcomers long to figure these folks out !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 10, 1999.

OK, here ya go folks. The pollyanna challenge again. Here's Milne's and Hamasaki's posts, under the Uncategorized category. Find 1% that are not based on EVIDENCE. Otherwise, STFU.

1. Milne (still) not a fan of Senator Bennett 
2. Milne no fan of de Jager either 
3. Milne not a fan of Senator Bennett 
4. Milne offers pollyannas an arithmetic lesson 
5. Milne on AT&T's announcement that it may go "Chevron" 
6. Milne on Russia, North Korea and Y2K: What Pollyannas don't want 
you to know 
7. Milne on the Great Geek Migration 
8. Milne: 16 Reasons Why Self-Reporting Is Specious 
9. Milne: A Pollanna Is Nothing But A Selfish Human Being 
10. Milne: And while you're at it...spoof this too 
11. Milne: Another challenge for pollyannas 
12. Milne: Ask Bozo If He Is the 'Best' Clown Ever 
13. Milne: Attention Pollyannas: FBI Agent says "This is a Clue" 
14. Milne: Australia: A Parable Of Non-Compliance 
15. Milne: Beginning of The Y2K Panic Sell-Off 
16. Milne: Blind Faith Of Managers 
17. Milne: Boston Herald says "the outlook is bleak" 
18. Milne: Brokerage Firms Miss Deadlines 
19. Milne: California Dreamin' 
20. Milne: Chaos in 90 days 
21. Milne: Clue-By-Four 
22. Milne: Dealing with Y2K failures in the midst of Y2K failures 
23. Milne: DoD is floundering 
24. Milne: European airports heading for millennium computer crash 
25. Milne: Fat lady is singing 
26. Milne: For Flint, an example of spin and distortion in a Milne 
posting 
27. Milne: For those who say Milne has never been right 
28. Milne: Gartner Group now rates US at 12th in remediation status 
29. Milne: Get out of Atlanta 
30. Milne: Government Y2K director cites potential for 1-2 weeks 
without power 
31. Milne: Half of the nation's 6,000 hospitals will not be Y2K 
compliant by 31 Dec 
32. Milne: Hoff, are you "ready"? 
33. Milne: Iraq and Y2K Poisonfire 
34. Milne: Ireland "Completely out of Touch" with Y2K (warning: 
offensive language) 
35. Milne: Japan: She Loves me, She Loves Me Not, She Loves me... 
36. Milne: Japanese Federal Government Spending 1/42 Of What We Spend 
37. Milne: Japan's Banks: White Wheat or Raisin? (with help from PNG) 
38. Milne: Koskinen Lies Again 
39. Milne: More Ignorant Hoffs 
40. Milne: New research says US imports will be "badly hit" even in 
BEST case scenario 
41. Milne: NONE of California's utilities are ready yet 
42. Milne: one more "spoof" 
43. Milne: Pay no attention to that Bear behind the curtain 
44. Milne: Recession in Latin America worse than IMF expected 
45. Milne: Say goodbye to Venezuelan oil 
46. Milne: See ya 
47. Milne: Solution to Japanese debt bubble: Apply patch, inflate 
bubble larger. 
48. Milne: Spoof THIS 
49. Milne: The Collapse Of Indonesia 
50. Milne: The Job Is Not Getting Done 
51. Milne: The Readers Digest version of Y2K 
52. Milne: Today's example of pollyanna spin 
53. Milne: Trashing The Idiotic "Y2K Will Be Like Three Day Storm" 
54. Milne: Trouble brewing up North 
55. Milne: UK Y2K expert says 33% of top firms failing remediation, 
may go bankrupt 
56. Milne: Water supplies at risk despite pollyanic reassurances 
57. Milne: When "Y2K Ready" does not mean Y2K Ready (much less 
"compliant") 
58. Milne: Why are Wall Street securities firms preparing to SLASH 
their assets due to a "minuscule risk"? 
59. Milne: Why do pollyannas waste their time discussing y2k? 
60. Milne: Y2K comes early to Serbia 
61. Milne: Y2K to dramatically increase starvation in third world 
62. Milne: Yet Another Government prepares for Y2K in a Bunker 
63. Milne's Toast 
64. Milne-US GDP Plunge 



65. Hamasaki and Milne comment on CA's proposed Y2K anti-gouging 
legislation 
66. Hamasaki cites evidence that Companies now covering up JAE 
67. Hamasaki on the lack of early failures 
68. Hamasaki says WDCY2K lawyers becoming bearish on y2k 
69. Hamasaki: "What I Don't Know Is ..." 
70. Hamasaki: A clue for Stephen Poole 
71. Hamasaki: Continuing the search for substantive Polly analysis 
72. Hamasaki: Get over wishing it ain't so 
73. Hamasaki: Great News! 
74. Hamasaki: How bad, how long, who dies 
75. Hamasaki: Los Angeles's Y2k drill: oops 
76. Hamasaki: Milne is wrong when he says, "It won't be long now." 
It's already started. 
77. Hamasaki: No takers for polly piece yet 
78. Hamasaki: On Locomotive Sized Generators 
79. Hamasaki: Panic probably begins in Sept - will be 10 times worse 
because of pollyannas 
80. Hamasaki: Parts is parts 
81. Hamasaki: Pollyanna consultant whistles "No Problem" as Sacramento 
welfare system goes down the tubes 
82. Hamasaki: Put it together. Stuff will break. Get ready. 
83. Hamasaki: Relatively little has been fixed 
84. Hamasaki: This mess has turned out worse than I thought it would 
85. Hamasaki: Timing is everything 
86. Hamasaki: We bad! 
87. Hamasaki: Why "99% complete" can be misleading 
88. Hamasaki: Why Y2K won't be fixed in 2 or 3 hours (Once more, with 
feeling) 
89. Hamasaki: With Y2K tests like this, who needs actual failures? 

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

If I'm not mistaken Flint, you have just 'been' nailed. I took a's quote of yours to be an example of how you would critique Milne's comments in this post. You certainly didn't disappoint anyone. You unfortunately missed the obvious point, however. I didn't hear you state what *your* opinion of Gartner is. The Y2K senate committee thought enough of his opinions to invite him to share them. He places the US in 12th (that's twelfth) place. I find this disturbing, and you? You then procede to 'discredit' Robin Guenier and discount his conclusion of the top third of Britain's firms failing to remediate. In your usual fashion you have now done exactly what Milne said pollys would do. So, the way I see it is that you have *been* nailed. As Milne said, you need to read the information presented and then make up your mind....if possible. All you've done so far is shoot the messenger. (palease)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 10, 1999.

Flint and CD, may we hear from you distinguished folks otherwise we may have to get the newest pesticide on the market out, "Polly Off".

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 10, 1999.

Furthermore Flint, you're a lying asshole. You said:

I think 'a' is being methodical indeed. You have to admire it. First, he selects one of Milne's most superficially sensible posts.

I reposted the next post by Milne since your "Methodical troll" post, and I would have posted it regardless of your litte charade on the definition of trolls. Next thing you'll be accusing Milne and me of collusion and conspiracy, just because you don't find the conclusions of the Gartner Group pallatable.

I guess the problem's not broken code, its scaremongers like me huh Flint?

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

The above original quote appears to be Israeli propaganda for their own domestic consumption. It is from an Israeli news source quoting Gartner, not a direct quote by Gartner.

If one allows "UK" in place of Britain and switches Sweden in front of Switzerland, the list is in alphabetical order. I have seen no Gartner list that breaks down their Tier One listing in order of preparedness.

This appears to me to be a quote by an Israeli newsman trying to put "a good spin on the news for the Isaeli's public consumption.

Therefore, TOTALLY IRRELEVANT!

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 10, 1999.

worldwide.

Now. Do not accuse me of being methodical, or Milne of spreading disinformation. Your argument, if there is one, is with the newspaper and the Gartner Group. Do you think that Paul arranged it this way? He is reporting what he sees. If you can't handle that, put your head back in the sand and go to sleep.

Did it ever occur to you that Bermuda may be 70% done and US might be only 60% done? (BTW, if it makes you feel any better, I would guess that Russia is around 0% done)

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

Whoops. Been drinking tonight folks, lets try that again.

Here's the quote from the Isralei article verbatim:

The Gartner Groups Y2K update, presented to the US Senate, places Israel in the group of best-prepared countries. The group includes Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, Britain and the US.

The countries are listed in descending order, which means that Israel is eighth, whereas the US has only the 12th place worldwide.

Now. Do not accuse me of being methodical, or Milne of spreading disinformation. Your argument, if there is one, is with the newspaper and the Gartner Group. Do you think that Paul arranged it this way? He is reporting what he sees. If you can't handle that, put your head back in the sand and go to sleep.

Did it ever occur to you that Bermuda may be 70% done and US might be only 60% done? (BTW, if it makes you feel any better, I would guess that Russia is around 0% done)

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

I dont know about Israel, but they apparently are not observing Y2K in Switzerland. Everything is fixed and Ok, according to this report.

http://www.millennium.ch/

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), July 10, 1999.

Replace: Netherlands with Holland; Britain with United Kingdom ... well, hey, the list DOES come out alphabetically arranged. Hmmm ... this Israeli article does not seem kosher.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 10, 1999.

'a':

You're right about EVIDENCE. You seem totally unaware of the distinction between evidence and interpretation. Milne's arguments have a boring repetitiveness about them. He starts with a FACT (hundreds of tons of space debris impacts the earth each day) and then makes nice, reasonable extrapolations (we're all in deadly danger of being hit by meteors). The fact that all but a tiny fraction of a percent burns up in the atmosphere is omitted. The omitted facts invalidate the conclusion.

In any case, most of Milne's EVIDENCE is simply published opinions which he can use as a springboard. Milne's techniques can be used to 'prove' that the earth is flat and the moon is made of green cheese, and all 'based' on evidence! Is it any wonder Milne's predictions are always so far off base? This is the guaranteed result of careful misinterpretation of carefully selected 'evidence.'

I know you can see through this dishonest technique. I can't understand why you continue to champion what is by now clearly a lost cause. At the very least, you should find the quality of your dwindling cheerleading squad deeply disturbing.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 10, 1999.

Flint, instead of displaying like the pollyanna peacock that you are, why not try DISPROVING what the Israeli article says. Why blame Milne and me for pointing out what an international media source is reporting? I already caught you lying about how I selected this post after all. You are poor sport my boy.

And FYI, I'd rather be surrounded by cheerleaders like Gordon, BD, Ray, WC, George, RC, Cook, etc than Y2K Pro, Mutha, CPR, Poole like you. Or are you in the doomer camp today?

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

Flint, you must have brown eyes! With all that shit stackt up so high inside you you just have to have brown eyes.

-- yuk (rubinos@duffee.com), July 10, 1999.

'a':

I said you selected one of Milne's more superficially reasonable posts. This is exactly what you did. The fact that it was Milne's latest is interesting, but irrelevant. You could have selected any Milne post you wanted. I said nothing about *when* he posts anything.

As for the content, you do your argument no service by quoting the article. That article simply selected those 12 countries Gartner felt were best prepared, listing them (approximately) in alphabetical order. If they'd used 'America' instead of 'US', we'd have been at the top of the list instead of the bottom. It's pretty obvious that Milne had to really stretch to reach his conclusion, ignoring the alphabetical presentation while carefully juxtoposing this with the worst an increasingly desperate Guenier has to offer. What a hoot!

Maybe once you sober up you'll stop defending the indefensible?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 10, 1999.

Hola, La Nina. De dsnde usted esta visitando? Puede haber otros amigos de habla hispana que estan interesados en Y2k. Usted traducira las cuerdas de rosca interesantes para ellas, como usted hizo iste? Pienso que es una buena idea, pero, como usted puede ver, hablo muy poco espaqol! :)

Buena suerte a usted

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), July 10, 1999.

Thanks --a

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), July 10, 1999.

IF THEY'D USED 'AMERICA' INSTEAD OF THE 'US' WE'D BE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST INSTEAD OF THE BOTTOM?????????????????????????????????????

Flint, you obviously left your mind behind on your vacation. Call the motel, perhaps the maid found it beneath your pillow. Go back and read the first two paragraphs of the article. It's apparent you are frightened. Please grip yourself.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 10, 1999.

After careful rereading, I stand by what I wrote. In terms of y2k preparedness, an alphabetical listing is the only one that makes any sense at all. To swallow the author's interpretation, you must reject *everything* we have *ever* read about relative international preparedness. And that includes *all* other Gartner assessments of these countries. Furthermore, you must believe that the alphabetical listing is *pure coincidence*, kind of like flipping heads 100 times in a row.

And if you're willing to bend disbelief that far out of shape for the sole purpose of buying into Milne's fantasies, I can only feel sorry for you. This list is in descending order only by alphabet, and has nothing to do with relative readiness at all. Sorry.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 11, 1999.

(RUOK,

No si muchas palabras de espaqol tambiin, pero si de un traductor del ordenador que usted quiza puede estar interesado en. Dijeme saber. Buena suerte a usted tambiin.)

-- CD (not@here.com), July 11, 1999.

Hi Flint, I think Milne's argument was reasonable except that he didn't catch on to alphabetical order problem which invalidates it, (unfortunate for me, being in A for Australia.) For parochial reasons I'm still holding out hope that the order of listing is accurate, but it would be improbable. I was thinking of e-mailing Mr. Ronny Lifschitz to see if he could confirm the order of merit he describes, but what the hey, the info was apparently presented by Gartner to the senate, so we ought to be able to get better info from an official transcript or from some other reporting. Maybe sacredspaces or mixesmusic or someone else less lazy than me could go find us a better link?

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), July 11, 1999.

I'm sorry Flint. Gartner states that the US has *25%* of the WORLD'S code. What percentage do these other countries have? Could this by chance have any bearing upon the level of 'completed' remediations by these various countries assessed by the Gartner Group?????????????

Don't wish too hard....you could burst a blood vessel.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 11, 1999.

(OT humor)

Milne translated into Spanish by a human being and then back to English by AltaVista.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++

Gartner places the E.E.U.U. Behind Great Britain in the preparation.

Still, we have just we read this:

The Important Companies Risk Death De Y2k De Steve Gold, Newsbytes De Julio The 08 Of 1999

A third of the companies of cover 1,000 of Great Britain is almost failing in its battle with the editing of Y2K in its systems of the information technology (HE). Consequently, many of them will face the last punishment, bankruptcy, robin Guenier, main expert of Y2K, has announced.

http://www.computercurrents.com/newstoday/99/07/08/news7.html

We have a problem so here.

Gartner says that the E.E.U.U., with 25% of all the code in the world are not uniform in the ten superior ones reason why the remediacisn goes. Upon that, Guinier says that the third superior one of British companies is failing. For the opposite conclusion, it does not read ignition. If the third superior one of British companies is failing, and IN the SAME TIME, the E.E.U.U. * ARE * not doing as well as

-- (off@top.hum), July 11, 1999.

number six:

With the caveat that countries are amorphous entities with respect to readiness, the usual Gartner ordering has generally placed the US and Canada at the top, with UK, Australia and maybe New Zealand on the next tier down, and some western European countries below that. Asia generally has been placed next, with Africa and South America falling into the cross-fingers-and-pray-really-hard category.

Gotta give Milne credit though, for combing around for just the right misinterpretation of this list (in a hebrew paper, no less). I've seen this list in several places, but without the mistake. Just recently, Milne found another misprint, where the author had misquoted Yardeni. Milne took this misquote (which was subsequently corrected) and proceeded to blast Yardeni as a [fill in insults here. LOTS of insults].

Isn't fanaticism fascinating?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 11, 1999.

BTW, that http://www.millennium.ch/ link Dave gave us is an amazing read. It's the official report from Swiss Gov, which all departments and provinces are to base their planning upon. And it says that it's guaranteed that there will be no y2k problems in any sector, full stop. Truuuly strange.

-- number six (tony900@yeeeeaah.com), July 11, 1999.

aren't we missing the point? with 25% of the world's code, if we aren't first, that could be very bad news for everyone everywhere.

-- sarah (qubr@aol.com), July 11, 1999.

Thanks for the logical conclusion sarah. (that's my daughter's name, she's smart as hell too). With the *largest majority* of code compared to any other country, the belief that we're actually ahead of every other country in the world, would imply that American's are every bit as pompous and egotistical about their percieved superiority, as the rest of the world sees us to be! I suppose if you have enough money, you can just simply buy your way out of any jam, eh? Think again. This isn't a problem with our Justice system ya know. (well, kinda) Y2K is NO OJ Simpson. There isn't any dream team that's going to save us from ourselves, providing we toss enough cash down on the table. The problem won't be corrected by massive amounts of positive thinking, and well worded spin either. This is *JULY 1999* and it ain't a pretty sight on the remediated code horizon.

Anyone who would be naive enough to think The United States of America (insert tune to the National Anthem) should be leading the world-wide pack in remediations, with our push cart full of 25% of the ENTIRE world's code.....better pinch themselves.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 11, 1999.

What's next ya'll, the old stand-by mission critical bs? "If mission critical systems are triaged above the rest.....the 25% figure will be widdled down to a mere 11% of the world's total code. This figure has been more than managable thus far and we feel fairly con-FI-dent that this will most *assuredly* be in place no later than 12/31/99....by the STROKE of midnight. We shall have an entire three day weekend to complete all necessary testing, with every employable employee and then some, in place for the big event......so, keep your money in the bank and save yourself the burden of robbery by strange strangers."

"Please be sure to drop your weapons and ammo into the 'night deposit box' as you exit your current location of disrupted locale."

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 11, 1999.

That's it for today, folks. Tune in each night at this time for the next amusing episode in the life of the Bickerstaffs, a typical American family.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), July 11, 1999.

And will all of you foreigners quit cluttering up this thread with that crap! You want to go native, do it in your own damn country. Gawd.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 11, 1999.

It's hard to say what is going on here, folks. All of the listed countries are supposed to be in *relatively* good shape on Y2K (for whatever that is worth). In the past the U.S. has always been put at the top of the heap by Gartner; at the same time, I have trouble with the "just move Sweden in front of Switzerland [what, the folks at Gartner can't alphabetize properly?] and substitute 'Holland' for the 'Netherlands,' etc.," argument. International firms and agencies rarely refer to the Netherlands as "Holland" any more, since the two are not equivalent: Holland is just the southern region of the Netherlands. For that matter, "Britain" does not include Northern Ireland; the UK does. Of course such distinctions might be lost on the good people at Gartner for all I know. So I don't know what is going on here. People with time and determination might want to prowl Gartner's website, www.gartner.com, in hopes of finding the actual answer, though I must warn you from bitter past experience that Gartner tends not to post very much useful info for the (nonpaying) public there. Altruism does not seem to be the corporate motto.

It's *possible* that the U.S. might have slipped some, especially since a recent survey by either Gartner or Cap Gemini (I can't recall which and should learn to print more things out at the time) indicated that 22% of Fortune 1000 companies are now conceding that they probably won't get all their mission-critical systems ready by year's end. Whether those companies are going to miss by much or by a little was not indicated, however, at least not in the news articles I saw. But this info might have caused GartnerGroup to re-evaluate how the U.S. stands on Y2K.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 11, 1999.

It appears the country names were taken from this Gartner Group presentation to the Senate:

http:// www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/030599/gartner.html

The listings are in Slide 10. And yes, Holland is used for the Netherlands, UK is used for Britain, and all the levels are listed in alphabetical order.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), July 11, 1999.

Gee wizz,

If we substitute fine for fucked, we should be alphabeticaly Y2k-Ok! How about " I'm o-k, you're screwed"? Let's all get out our 3'rd grade primer and whip this bug!

All together now, We Are #1, We are #1, We are #1!!!

Feel better now?

Sheesh,

-- CT (ct@no.yr), July 11, 1999.

Whatever, CT. Note also that the juxtaposition of Sweden and Switzerland is there on the Gartner Group Slide.

If you want to go with Milne's rant on this, be my guest. But the premise of the article, and his rant, is wrong.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), July 11, 1999.

Q for Hoff and Flint:

Where would YOU list US in that group? 25% of the world's code is quite a bit to get remediated guys, compared to Bermuda's 0.0001%, wouldn't ya say?

But maybe you're right. Maybe we're 11th. :)

-- a (a@a.a), July 11, 1999.

'a':

I sincerely doubt that our assessment techniques are sufficiently accurate even to make the lumped Gartner groupings particularly meaningful, much less fine enough to rank within groups.

But the whole point here is that Milne's argument is built entirely on a false premise. Sure, when he wrote his post he may not have caught it, so he can't be blamed for an honest mistake. But your adamant *refusal* to recognize his mistake by this point is telling indeed. Instead, you attempt to mock those who point it out.

So c'mon 'a', be honest and own up. Milne was wrong. Admit it.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 11, 1999.

Not sure of the original source link. This was copied from my presentation materials, and isn't the most recent list. Note that all levels are listed alphabetically.

The writer of the article in question (and, by extension, Milne) blew this one. Doesn't change things a bit, IMO.

Y2K corporate failure rate: Predictions by country

Level 1 (15%): Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S.

Level 2 (33%) Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan

Level 3 (50%): Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia

Level 4 (66%): Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe

No country is immune from problems. Who cares about rankings, which are really impossible to quantify anyway? Everyone should prepare. Next, please...

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), July 11, 1999.

OK. THIS particular post is looks to be another "Yardeni predicts depression", but it does not invalidate Milne's other 8976 postings. And I think the thread served another purpose, as my last question remains valid. Hell, with all the negative reports I've seen recently from US, Australia, Britian, and Cananda, maybe Bermuda is "the" place to be for rollover...

-- a (a@a.a), July 11, 1999.

See slide #10 here.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), July 11, 1999.

Thanks, Hoffmeister and Steve, for the info. Yep, straight alphabetization on each level (except for an occasional slip by someone who didn't learn the alphabet particularly well, apparently).

I'll second the post that says it's pretty hard to make such ratings anyway. Kind of like college basketball polls. Let's see, Duke was #1, so they are national champs now, right? (My apologies to any Duke fans. But hey, Duke did beat my undergrad alma mater, Michigan State. Just couldn't beat Connecticut.)

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 12, 1999.

Hello to everyone, I am a "newcomer" to this discussion group; in fact, this is my first chat-forum to ever participate in. A link on the timebomb site is how I found yall. Have read all postings on this thread re. Slide 10 and the ranking debate. Here are my thoughts to share with those that interact through this forum:

First, my impressions: GOOD - You are ALL concerned about what is happening/possibly going to happen/may not happen with Y2K and care enough to talk about it with others. Whether or not your concern is simply to save your own hide or somehow profit through this great time of change is a matter of your own heart. Communication and a common goal are positive attributes. And the common goal, which I detect in your discussion, is a search for the TRUTH! That seems to be what we are all really looking for in these ominous days of uncertainty. It is indeed unfortunate for all of humanity that a deliberate Y2K cover-up, misinformation/non-information strategy has been mistakenly taken by our leaders. How many of you are finding that this WRONG DECISION OF LIES AND DECEIT is causing disagreement and turmoil within your own family and circle of friends? Even your own selves are an example of such strife; it is sad to see those of you that care so much wasting your precious time and energy to maliciously berate each other over differences in opinion regarding the Y2K issue and its ramifications. At a time when the entire WORLD faces the potential of terrible SUFFERING beyond our comprehension, it is frightening to see such divisiveness and separatism already evolving among intelligent, caring people. If we, those that are truly concerned, cannot even talk about Y2K with kindness and compassion, what will it be like if thousands must share basic resources such as water, food, shelter, etc.? Your frustration, your sense of anger, so clearly reflected in the written words, are MISDIRECTED AT ONE ANOTHER instead of at THOSE THAT ARE RESPONSIBLE for this muddled state of affairs... the darkness of "unknowingness." Think about it! How very valuable your remaining time and energy are - how could they be best utilized to help you and others prepare? Surely there is a better way than nitpicking and calling each other names! Let us ALL come together NOW and work in unity to uncover the TRUTH and prepare together as best we can in what little time remains.

Second, in slide 10 of the Gartner Senate Presentation, it does initially appear that there is a ranking within the categories themselves. However, it is apparent when one carefully studies slide 10 that the countries in all 4 categories were arranged in an alphabetical order. So, special thanks to Mr. Milne for the original posting as it forced everybody to put on their thinking cap and take a real look at the Gartner presentation and accomplished the good purpose of raising awareness. In my opinion, the whole categories thing flies out the window anyway when one looks at the total picture - the potential for major disaster and death is going to be equally shared in all countries by both the rich and poor, no matter how prepared they claim to be. An example I give is chemicals: while on vacation in Houston, Texas, a couple of weeks ago, there was a high level alert for a release of harmful gas from a nearby chemical plant. The horrifying thought came to mind of what could occur if this were to be happening simultaneously due to computer problems brought on by the Y2K bug throughout this highly industrialized area. Incompatible chemical agents mixing into a huge cloud of deathly gas, spreading over miles and miles of the densely populated region... even around the globe, a very real and dangerous possibility. In 1984, over a thousand adults and children died instantly from just such an exposure in Bhopal, India. Furthermore, there is nuclear radiation and other hazardous agents that can easily cross borders and cause worldwide problems. So, as I said previously, we ALL share in the risk equally, no matter what category we are grouped in. To think that a "well-prepared" country will not be impacted by widespread disaster within countries such Russia and China, (which in published reports, the CIA has assessed as at "CATASTROPHIC" risk), is simply wishful thinking! I personally believe that it is going to come down to basic survival or divine intervention, there is simply too much evidence, if one is willing to really investigate the resources available, that points in that direction. And like it or not, we must ALL be willing to help one another, participation in this event is not going to be optional.

Third: I agree that there is definitely media manipulation / distortion / covering-up of facts occurring all over the world - why... to be the bearer of news which people DO NOT WANT to hear is always an unrelished & difficult task, often avoided if at all possible. I have been a RN in hospital ICUs and ERs for over 20 years. I know what I am talking about in this area, working with death, sorrow, and tragedy daily. So many times I have been in the undesirable position of having to tell family members that their loved one has just died. Think of how hard this can be, like when a toddler has been ran over by its own parent while playing on the driveway. Unanticipated DEATH is an integral part of our reality, whether we like it or not; such tragic occurrences are happening right now throughout the world. Perhaps it is this, our deep-rooted human FEAR OF DEATH, the strong tendency of human nature to avoid this taboo subject at all costs, which is the REAL reason for the evolving cover-up/misinformation situation. It is well documented that most people in our modern culture have a strong aversion to thinking about Death, especially when being suddenly thrust into the uncomfortable position of having to contemplate their own demise. This attitude is very much reflected in our society: youthfulness, entertainment, consumerism, playing sports or the stock market, etc.  superficial interests based on fulfillment of desire. Y2K poses the threat of DEATH to this way of life; in fact, it threatens our very survival, a stark reality which humankind dreads to confront. A very unpopular issue for world leaders to grapple with as they collectively drag their feet, dreading the nasty task of having to go out and face the waiting family of the world with the bad news of potential demise. So, just as in the hospital, we wait anxiously for any news that we can get while our leaders argue and haggle behind closed doors over what and when we should be told and who will do the telling. I've been there - I know what I'm talking about.

We must demand that our world leaders truthfully admit the seriousness of the Y2K situation to all people before it is too late for adequate preparations, the necessity to prepare should not be privileged information for those on the inside only. Let us each make a sincere effort to contact our local, state, and federal officials; pleading that the TRUTH is told equally to ALL. Everyone should have an equal chance to prepare, anything less is not right and should not be tolerated! Work together and in unity for ALL! . Each of us should look within our own heart and examine our deepest fears, making peace with God rhonda greif

-- rhonda greif (rhondagreif@hotmail.com), July 18, 1999.

Rhonda,

Welcome to the TB2000 forum. What you are reading here is not really about the Gartner slide. When you followed the link from the TB2000 homepage to the forum, did you read Ed's sayonara essay? What can be read here is the fossilization and polarization of the Y2K debate that Ed discusses in "Sayonara".

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), July 18, 1999.