I am not surprised at any of the responses to my post Why I ask. Let us see: there was rudeness, scoffing, mockery, a response pointing out that I would be dead and the post-er would be happy about it, and several who demonstrated similar research capabilities regarding the possibility of catastrophic Y2K events and what I had posted in the past....

...and still not one shred of evidence. I am tempted by the continuing demonstrations of non-critical thinking to ask if your parents know what you are doing with their computers, as the responses are so reminiscient of "sandbox" mentality.

Your responses only reveal the nature of your true hopes and beliefs to every sensible person browsing this forum; so please, continue the unfounded and apparently unsubstantiated lunacy. With each rant, you are accomplishing the desires of each "troll" and every "polly."

Again, if you cannot produce one piece of evidence to scientifically verify your "reality," you should question its validity.

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 09, 1999

Answers

The city 5 mi away from me is preparing "warming centers". Sorry if thats not scientific enough for you, but its enough for me.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), July 09, 1999.

As many have responded to your previous request ("Why I ask?"), there are many websites which detail long lists of y2k non-compliant equipment as per acknowledgement of OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers, i.e., the General Electrics and the Westinghouses and the Foxboros and the Honewells of this world, get it?)

I, for one, responded with what I believe is the most practical to use and comprehensive in scope. I REPEAT, look into

"www.willitwork.com"

and find literally thousands of answers to your question.

Now, question for you: Are you deaf, blind or just plain dumb?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 09, 1999.

Andy Ray's handicap is this: While he is obviously capable of generating opinions, he is incapable of generating knowledge, and he doesn't understand the difference between the two. Unfortunatly it take years to change that deficit, so don't expect to see any significant difference in his approach to this problem in the months ahead. Even next year, with all it's problems, will leave him clueless.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 09, 1999.

Andy,

Along with small there must also a performance problem in your life. Poor boy, this must be very hard to deal with, especially for someone with such limited thinking ability. The best thing you can do at this point is to get some physiological help. This may help you accept who you are and help you with that other problem. Good Luck! In the mean time, can you see if Mr. Rogers has a web site? You seem to be very qualified to join in there. In case you are the only one who hasnt noticed, youre in way over your head here. Everybody can tell you know nothing about computers or humane nature, please look into your problem, you sound sick and have people concerned about you.

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), July 09, 1999.

You seem to think we need to justify our convictions.Do you have any idea how arrogant that sounds?

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.

by the way,the green is nice.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.

Andy Ray, I am relatively new to studying the Y2K evidence, but I forsee the biggest problem to be the fear of the unknown. Many surveys have been released with significant numbers of people saying they are going to withdraw some or all of their cash before the turnover. when that begins to get press coverage, the snowball down the proverbial mountain will have begun. I rest between doomsayer and pollyanna, but like I told my pollyanna wife, I'd rather feel foolish and be prepared than to take my chances on the other side of the fence.

-- (Theman@noname.net), July 09, 1999.

Andy.

Go to Pascals Logic. Sure you've seen it if you've read all the threads. There are only 2 beliefs (GI or DGI) and 2 choices (prepare or don't prepare).That leaves you with 4 results: GI or DGI and don't prepare in which case you're in deep dodo if you're wrong and GI and DGI and prepare in which you're in good shape whether you're right or wrong. Now which shape are you willing to bet your life on?

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 09, 1999.

It's called Pascal's Wager, Sue, and there are criticisms of the logic, if you care to investigate them. From an economics view, all decisions involve cost. The original Pascal's Wager does not consider the "cost" of believing in God. On an earlier thread, I invited discussion of Pascal's Wager as it applies to Y2K including a link. I'll try to find the link for you.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), July 09, 1999.

http://setis.library.usyd.edu.au/stanford/entries/pascal-wager/

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), July 09, 1999.

Andy,

Asking for "proof" of something as nebulous as y2k is like asking your doctor to guarantee that you won;t have a heart attack next year. He / she won't do it. Does that men you have a free ticket to eat 5 # of bacon and a dozen eggs every morning? Of course not.

What we're dealing with here is a very complex social / technological issue without ANY legitimate, verifiable facts on either side of the fence.

And as I said yesterday, some of us have kids who are depending on us to make the best decision we can for their well being. Apparently the concept of "responsiblity" is something that has escaped you.

Best regards,

Dan

-- dan (dbuchner@logistics.calibersys.com), July 09, 1999.

...remind me to turn my spell check on next time!

Sorry!

-- dan (dbuchner@logistics.calibersys.com), July 09, 1999.

I know someone in the Minnesota National Guard. The base they go to for monthly drill has acquired large numbers of something they have never had before; horses and mules. They apparently figure that the embedded systems in their motor vehicles, Y2K problems with refinery production/mass materials transportation/oil production from wellheads/etc. is sufficiently likely that this is a wise step. Any questions?

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 09, 1999.

it's easier to be flip and non-chalant about y2k if you're alone and unloved.no responsibility to anyone.some of us think more about what's at stake more than being right all the time.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.

Hi MinnesotaSmith:

Have enjoyed your posts at TB2000 and consider you a good source. The recent post on the Minn Natl Guard acquiring horses and mules really intriqued me, and I have a few questions:

Any idea how many animals, and what breeds of horses? This would indicate whether they plan to ride them around (like mounted police) or use them to pull equipment.

Any idea what kind of training the guard personnel are getting on horse care and use? We moderns tend to think that horses are kinda like living cars -- they'll just hang around until we're ready to hop on and go. But these animals require extensive feeds (hay and grain), water, and specialized tools to use them (halters, saddles, wagons, etc). Arrangements for these goods would have to be in place now, too....so if we don't see multiple-ton orders for hay and grain going to guard facilities, this info may be suspect.

What kind of training are Guardsmen getting in the proper use and driving of these animals?

In addition, especially in Minn, the animals will require shelters, blankets, and the use of barns, sheds, etc. This implies building facilities, or at least rededication of existing facilities -- are you seeing this going on?

Also, a bunch of horses and mules will generate a fantastic amount of manure...one big horse can easily produce a ton of poop annually...where does all this go?

In olden days, cavalry troups had a couple "horse doctors" around -- does use of these animals imply the presence of vets being required by the Guard? What if they don't have any on hand? Can vets be "drafted" in some fashion, or hired out of the surrounding countryside?

How about farriers (horse shoe makers)? This is kind of a specialized skill, and the animals typically will need a new pair of shoes every month or two.....more, if they're being used a lot.

Please do post with this info -- or maybe start a fresh thread....if the Minn Guard is doing this, it may be an option for other law-enforcement agencies post y2k.

Thanks,

Anita E.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 09, 1999.

Decker, the "cost of believing in God" is ZERO, you dumb fuck.

-- (@ .), July 09, 1999.

Anita:

Is that a gun in your hands? And is that a barrel with fish in it? Don't shoot, please.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), July 09, 1999.

Ah, temper, temper. Of course there are costs involved in a genuine belief in God. For example, a sincere attempt to follow the teaching of Christ can be costly indeed. The devout Christian simply feels the short-term sacrifices of worshipping a "jealous" God are small compared to the long-term benefits.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), July 09, 1999.

Vic:

Huh?

Did I mention guns? Fish?

How about some info on the Guard acquiring horses and mules? I'm serious. Go to the Prep forum and look for the post on horses (couple days old) by Beckie. Note my responses (I've got work ponies, BTW.)

The questions I asked are legitimate and serious.

If the Guard is actually acquiring horses and mules, this is then a VERY LONG TERM scenario they are planning for -- you don't build a barn for a 3-week power outage, nor put in a ton of hay per horse/mule, nor put your guys through the kind of training it takes to work these animals safely.

And if this is a rumor, it needs to be explored and squelched before it makes it all over the 'net.

No jokes, no opinions. Just gimmie some hard info.

Anita Evangelista

PS: Don't confuse me with the Other Anita.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 09, 1999.

My apologies, Anita. I did confuse you with the other Anita. I must say, though, that yours is one of the few answers I've seen that could be interpreted as either totally legitimate or totally tongue-in-cheek. Again, my apologies.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), July 09, 1999.

i am a lurker and have only posted once in this forum. it is most intriguing to me however, that the polly's in here can't seem to get the fact that if this thing is only going to last for 2-3 days and that is all that we should officially prepare for, why don't the powers that be simply demand that everyone in a position to "fix" the problem simply work the next 3 holidays(Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas)or even the next 3 weekends and get this over with. then we can all get on with our lives and not worry about anything. me thinks that perhaps this is wishful thinking and i will not soon forget having a finger wagged in my face that "no sex had been had with that woman" and i won't wait to find out that this too, was more than was thought to be. i won't try and convince a polly any longer of possible problems, but your being sorry to prepare won't make your plight any less difficult IF things to get bad. someone in southern la once said, "can't we all just get along?" well, can't we?........

-- don (mrmtgman@aol.com), July 09, 1999.

don:

There are a couple facts of programming life that you should understand if your question is to be meaningful: First, it's damn hard to find bugs before they strike, much less predict the impacts and importance of each. Second, these things often become very clear *after* they strike. You can ignore the little ones and do whatever it takes to fix or work around the big ones (which are the tiny minority anyway).

Think of the bridge and the rivets -- a million rivets, and maybe 100 of them are critical. But you don't know which ones in advance, so you must replace all million. After the fact, you know exactly which 100 to fix (although traffic backs up for a few days while you fix them).

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 09, 1999.

I just showed this article to my brother about 20 minutes ago. This is a good time to repost it...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-06/28/074r-062899- idx.html

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

D.C. Plans To Mobilize Workers for Y2K Backup

City Still Far Behind In Fixing Computers

by Eric Lipton

Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, June 28, 1999; Page A01

The District government, recognizing that its year 2000 repair program likely will not be completed on time, is planning a massive New Year's Eve mobilization of emergency personnel and other staff to ensure that critical city services are not interrupted if computer systems fail.

Police will be stationed at more than 120 locations across the city, working 12-hour shifts, to take walk-in requests for emergency services. Twenty-one "warming centers," each supplied with food, water and cots, will open. School crossing guards will be on call, ready to replace traffic lights at major intersections. And D.C. General Hospital will have extra staff members -- as many as 175 -- on site.

These are just a few of the 88 contingency and emergency plans the District is feverishly working to put in place by the end of the year. Similar efforts are underway across the United States among governments and private companies, but in the District, officials have acknowledged the city is so far behind on its Y2K fix that it may have to rely on some of these "work-around" techniques.

"Because we began late, there may be things that suffer an interruption that we did not completely get to," said D.C. Chief Technology Officer Suzanne J. Peck. "Within our agencies . . . in some function, a handful may fail temporarily."

Officials are confident that most of these plans -- even those that will be put into effect regardless of any system failure -- will not be needed, and that even in the District, Y2K will be one of the century's most hyped nonevents.

City officials want to convince the public that the new year will begin in the nation's capital without chaos no matter what happens with D.C. operations or outside services such as telephone, gas and electricity.

"Our intent is not to alarm people, but put people at ease that things are under control," Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) said yesterday. "We are going to have this city work for people."

Added Cmdr. David B. McDonald, the supervisor of police Y2K planning: "We want to reassure the residents and visitors to the District that even if Armageddon comes, we will assist and protect the public."

The D.C. Council will be briefed on the public safety contingency plans at an oversight hearing this morning.

The District's own assessment of its progress in making year 2000 fixes demonstrates the need for such planning: With six months left in the year, only 41 percent of the District's 336 major computer systems have been fixed. The rest are scheduled to be repaired and tested by the end of October.

Of the city's 73 agencies, 19 -- including key departments such as Health, Housing and Community Development; Tax and Revenue; Child and Family Services; and Public Works -- are not even halfway done with their year 2000 repairs and planning.

Williams said he is "not at all surprised" that so much work remains, given the city's late start on addressing the Y2K problem. But he added that he is reasonably comfortable with the status of the city's Y2K repair efforts and has the impression that the District is about even with other major cities, saying the city may be understating its "readiness."

Virginia and Maryland, by comparison, say their government systems are virtually Y2K-proof, and while they also have contingency plans, they are more confident that they won't have to use them.

[snip]

The District's late start is largely to blame for its lagging effort. While Maryland and Virginia began working on the problem several years ago, the District waited until last summer. Recognizing the danger of a catastrophic failure in the city, Congress gave the District $62 million in emergency funding this year to accelerate the work. But even with an army of more than 300 consultants at work -- most under a $76 million contract with IBM Corp. -- success is far from assured.

The struggle at D.C. General Hospital illustrates the challenge. D.C. General and its related health care divisions are about 48 percent "ready," according to ratings released Wednesday by the District's year 2000 program.

The hospital's mainframe computer system -- which handles medical records, patient accounts, budgeting, laboratory data, patient registration and other hospital operations -- will falter at year's end unless several million dollars in repairs are made.

The city is rushing to install a new computer system, but the first phase is not scheduled to be operating until mid-September. Officials are debating whether to repair the old computer in case the new one is not ready.

And that is only the beginning.

An estimated 80 percent of the 1,000 pagers assigned to staff at D.C. General and other divisions of the city's hospital and health care network are not Y2K compatible. At the start of June, the city had not issued a purchase order to buy replacements.

Each of the hospital's four ultrasound machines and 21 defibrillators -- used to reestablish a regular heartbeat -- is not Y2K compliant, although replacements are on order. And the critical-care monitoring system in the intensive-care unit also must be replaced.

"You can't have an emergency room without a defibrillator. You can't have an intensive-care unit without monitors," said William D. Wild, senior vice president for compliance at D.C. General.

Given all this uncertainty -- and fewer than 190 days before the end of the year -- D.C. General administrators and staff members are spending hundreds of hours preparing backup plans.

The 250-bed hospital, which served 51,237 in its emergency room last year and 80,000 in its hospital clinics, is arranging to have 50 temporary workers available to hand-process records and other tasks if computers fail. As many as 124 employees -- including nurses, doctors and financial staff members -- may be asked to stay overnight on New Year's Eve, Wild said.

An extra 30 to 60 days' worth of pharmaceuticals is being ordered, and up to 90 days' worth of other basic supplies -- from bottled water to bandages -- is being purchased. The cost to the city just for the contingency planning, excluding the basic Y2K repairs, is about $4 million.

Even at agencies where year 2000 repairs are farther along, extensive contingency planning is underway. The broadest effort involves emergency services, where the plans are largely directed at anticipating failure of outside utilities such as electricity and telephone -- all extremely unlikely.

"The phone company says they are 98 percent certain it won't go down. The power companies say they are 99 percent certain everything will work," McDonald said. "But if that 2 percent and 1 percent cross, we need to be prepared."

Every officer in the city's 3,600-person police force will work 12- hour shifts during the New Year's weekend. Starting about 10:30 p.m. on New Year's Eve, the police department will deploy two-person teams to 120 locations across the District, including fire stations, convenience stores and fast-food restaurants.

Each officer will have a radio, and each of the 10 antenna sites for the radio system will have a backup generator. The city's 150 school crossing guards will learn how to handle traffic if lights go out. Staff is prepared to process crime reports and bookings by hand.

"We can't say, 'Sorry, Mr. Burglar, we can't book you today. Why don't you come back tomorrow?' " McDonald said.

At the Fire and Emergency Medical Services Department, leave time is being restricted for the 1,763-member staff between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15. Crews on the 16 ladder trucks are being given the tools and training to perform elevator rescues, supplementing the city's three regular rescue squads.

Backup to the city's computer-aided dispatch system is ready: thousands of 3-by-5 cards detailing which trucks to send depending on the address of a call. Fire trucks and ambulances already have been checked.

The city's Emergency Operations Center will be in gear before New Year's Eve, staffed by the public-safety-related agencies, including the Red Cross and the National Guard. All 21 warming centers, most at city schools, will be open New Year's Eve.

"If need be, people who go to these centers will be warm. They will have somewhere to sleep and something to eat," Emergency Management Program Officer Barbara Childs said.

The contingency planning extends far beyond the central emergency agencies.

The D.C. Water and Sewer Authority, for example, will spend more than $1 million to rent several locomotive-size generators to ensure that water will flow if the electricity goes out.

The Public Works Department will ensure that the city has 87,000 gallons of vehicle fuel available, double the normal supply. Extra truck parts, backup generators and other supplies also are on order. Plans have even been made for trash collection crews (they would work day and night), tree maintenance (complaints would be taken at the Reeves Municipal Center on 14th Street NW) and rat patrol (private exterminators would be used).

Officials are urging residents to prepare for the new year as well, stocking up on food, fuel, bottled water and other supplies as they would for a winter storm.

Jack L. Brock Jr., a U.S. General Accounting Office computer expert who described the city's Y2K outlook in February as "bleak," said last week that while he is reassured the city is making contingency plans, it must be able to implement them.

"They can't just be paper plans," said Brock, whose office is about to start another review of the District's Y2K status for Congress. "They have to do enough testing and validation to be confident that they will work."

Interim City Administrator Norman Dong said Williams is committed to ensuring that the plans work. To date, 38 of the 88 contingency plans are in draft or final form. From July until September, 23 mission- critical city agencies will hold mock drills.

"Our hope and expectation is that it will be business as usual," Dong said. "But we are taking nothing for granted. We want to make sure we are covered, that no matter what happens, we are prepared."

) Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 09, 1999.

THANK YOU Andy Ray! <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.

Hello again, Anita. I always am warmed to receive a message from you. I can answer only part of your questions, but will do the best I can. 1) The person who told me this has personally laid eyes on them. I have known him for over a year, and consider him very reliable. He has a significant technical background, and by himself reached the same conclusion as myself as to the significance of the animals. (He judges Y2K at least a 3.5 on the Milne Severity Scale)

2) As I understand it, the U.S. Army is the branch of the U.S. Military that maintains the veterinary organization that oversees care of all animals used by the U.S. Military. There was a U.S. Navy base a relative visited that had exactly one Army serviceman, the base vet. As the Nat'l Guard is overseen in many aspects directly by the Army, the NG should have no difficulty accessing the neccessary animal care skills. Remember, too, that the military has an ancient tradition of using animals in a long-term fashion; in Italy in WWII, mules were used by the U.S. Army to move supplies to front-line units, as well as all the horses used by ceremonial units (think: JFK funeral).

3) As far as where to put animal wastes, remember that away from the Twin Cities, population density is not that high here. Minnesota is a fairly big state with a modest-sized population. Any nonurban military base can be expected to have a large "back 40" that will hold centuries-worth of manure wastes.

4) As far as the number of animals, all I can tell you is that he said "a bunch".

5) Re the stabling/other facilities for the horses: the Minnesota NG has (I believe) only 3 combat battalions (2 infantry, 1 armor), although it has a number of other, smaller units. The latter includes military police, civil/technical units, and the like. Remember that the U.S. military has been reduced by ~45% in the last 9 years; also, there probably are multiple unused quonset huts on the major based dating back to WWII, if these bases are operated at all similiarly to other bases I have been inside. I doubt stable space will be much of a problem, and if it is, an engineer unit would find that this is the main thing they do during weekend drills until completed. Summer IS the time of year that most NG outdoor activities are performed in MN.

6) Lastly, remember that there is a HUGE number of dairy cattle operations in this part of the country, and that NG members are mostly natives of the state they drill in. (There are also innumerable private horse stables in MN). Winter concerns are nontrivial issues, but are surely known factors for the MN NG, even with respect to draft animals.

Hope that this clears up at least a few of your questions, Anita. Best of everything to you.

www.y2ksfafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 09, 1999.

That's www.y2ksafeminnesota.com for my website.

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 09, 1999.

Somebody quick, throw some water on Andy's ass. its still smokin' from the whoopin DOC put on it in the Thank you ANDY! thread.

-- (@ .), July 09, 1999.

I LOVE DOGS

-- sssssssssss (sdsdsd@sdsd.luf), July 11, 1999.