(An absolutely first rate job of organizing this forum, gang.)

I live in L.A. I have organized a place to temporarily "relocate"  a12 hour drive away. My question is "when?" I read the 12/98 thread on this very topic. It's six months later. I'm curious about any updated thoughts regarding when to bolt. I realize that no pat answers exist, but I was hoping that other forum members might give me some insight to their thinking, and that those thoughts and considerations might help me process my own. I'm rather alone in planning all this for me and my few dependents.

MY CIRCUMSTANCES ARE:

1. I've hired somebody to help me supply-up at the "relocation" site because I have to stay in L.A. right now and work. I have two acquaintances in the relocation area.

2. It's economically *possible* for me to leave anytime this fall, but would prefer to continue working and generate an income as long as I can. I'd also prefer to keep my dependents rooted here as long as I can. I have Dec 15th set as a date to leave.

3. There's only one person in my world that provides moral support for my plan.

4. I can be prepared to leave within three days of the serious indicators triggering (banks, stocks, etc.)

5. I will keep my L.A. apartment while I am away, until I see what's up.

MY CURIOSITIES ARE:

1. Is a three day margin reasonable (see #4 above)? Does anybody foresee interstate relocation restrictions being put into place within as short a period as three days, should a dramatic series of events like stockmarket crash and bank runs ensue? Or is this concern about a State's enacting relocation restrictions paranoid and a bit over the top?

2. What is your guess as to the likelihood that gas might be rationed before Dec. 15th, and do you think we will have any warning of such a thing happening? If so, how much warning do you think we might have? I will have to drive, which will require 3 tanks of gas.

3. At what point and what unfolding events do you think will cause people of a rural area to become hostile to newbies? What are some things to consider about hostility toward newbies (i.e., doctors not accepting new patients, pharmacies of this small area not accepting new prescriptions) etc?

4. How does one make friends with people in an unfamiliar rural community, but stay quiet, discreet and somewhat invisible at the same time? Which is the better strategy in these circumstances? I am quite interested in the thoughts of those who live rural. Fact to the matter is, I feel rather humble, hence shy, about moving into their territory.

I've read that relocation is among one of the top-anxiety producing events in life. Relocation under these circumstances is not helping to ease that dynamic. But I'm quite prepared and resolved to follow the plan I've cobbled together over the past months.

In the end, I know I have to do my own thinking, but any thoughts would be appreciated mightily.

IPQ

-- IPQ (IPQ@aol.com), July 06, 1999

Answers

Ooops. I typed in my email address incorrectly above. (Sorry.) Here's my correct email address.

-- IPQ (IdProQuo@aol.com), July 06, 1999.

Unless your luck is better than mine, the correct time will occur just a bit earlier than whatever you decide. I believe your 3 day allowance is excessive, with 3 hours being more realistic. Impractical? Remember, better one year too early, than one hour too late. Where is your comfort level?

-- A. Hambley (a.hambley@usa.net), July 06, 1999.

IPQ:

In your situation, I wouldn't feel comfortable with a three-day window. If there is some triggering event, I think that portal narrows rapidly.

As for interstate restrictions, I believe it's a real possibility as the government--in the guise of "helping"--acts to limit movement into and out of the large cities.

I now live in a rural area, and I don't know that there is an "answer" as to how one becomes assimilated. It depends on the people and the circumstances. It's been my experience, though, that country folk are much more hospitable and welcoming than their urban neighbors. For the most part, if your mission is non-threatening and neighborly, you'll probably find yourself right at home.

Best of luck to you!

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), July 06, 1999.

Love your "handle," by the way.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), July 06, 1999.

I read somewhere (probably on the "classic" forum) that Martial Law would be enacted on Dec 1st, thereby severely restricting travel. Personally, I'd want to be at the retreat for Thanksgiving AND Christmas. It just seems the prudent thing to do...

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 06, 1999.

A general thought on relocation:

It would probably be prudent to have several alternative routes mapped out (ahead of time) to your relocation site.Bridges across major rivers,especially on interstates,could easily become traffic control points.There may not be another bridge for several miles in either direction.In the midwest floods of '93,the only bridge that was usable across the Missouri river in Missouri except in St Louis and Kansas City was the I-70 bridge.1 bridge in 250 mile stretch across central Missouri.I had to travel about 100 miles out of my way to visit my son who lives in central Mo.Think secondary roads,stay off the interstates.

Got maps?

-- mchnst (Gunmkr52@aol.com), July 06, 1999.

IPQ, you really need to start spending as much time as your schedule allows (i know, at 12 hours one-way that will be tough) actually at your relocation spot. you said you had two acquaintances at this spot. if you spend a long weekend there, can you get them to introduce you around? do you attend church? not getting personal, this is just one of the best ways to meet people in a new area. are you a vet? is there a vet's group in the new area? tell people you're thinking of moving there, ask who's a good doctor, what's a good grocery store, do you get first-run movies there? do you hunt or just shoot? ask if there's a conservation club/shooting range around. these things will all make you a familiar face when you decide to relocate.

as the others above state, i'm afraid when things close down they will go very fast (so as to retain control). three tanks of gas away from relocation is a scary prospect to me. any possibility of staging some between here and there? can you store gasoline in a u- store place? just some ideas.

good luck!

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), July 06, 1999.

IPQ,

First some thoughts on your situation and plan, and then some points you might consider.

Are your relocation "hosts" established in the area you are planning to flee to? Some that are thinking about moving to rural areas in October or after will have a rude awakening. As I've stated before, you needed about a year to get yourself established in a new locale, especially if you were going to supplement yourself from the land.

You say you have someone stockpiling for you at your relocation site. You HIRED him? Do you know him personally? If things got rough quick, can you be sure this guy you hired doesn't run or sell your stash before you get there? Trust is a big issue.

You also need a bug-out bag where you are. What if the roads are closed down by Guard troops or worried townsfolk that want no transients coming through their towns? What if your car breaks down and you need to hoof it on foot? Have a back-pack with enough supplies to sustain you for 3-5 days, including survival gear, a tent, a sleeping bag, a gun, water and food. There are many threads in the archives about what to put in your bug-out bag. Have one ready NOW.

Three days to bug-out is like hoping it will snow at the Equator. At best you will have hours. Major metro areas will have contingencies in place to lock-down major thru-ways for emergency traffic if there is a major panic or Martial law is declared. The best plan is to be able to leave at a moments notice, without having to stop until you get to where you are going.

Forget about moral support. It's nice if you have it, but let your common sense be your guide. Be your own moral support, plus you have an extended family here at the Forum that can assist in that department if you need it. Do what you know to be right, and care not what the other "sheople" think.

This I know is a difficult situation for you. Plus knowing WHEN to go is an agonizing mental excercize. I have extended family that lived through Nazi occupation in Europe, and had a good Jewish friend that left Germany with his parents in either 1936 or 37 because his father saw the handwriting on the wall. To hear a survivor explain the atttitudes that existed before the war broke out is an eye-opener, and mirrors the complacent attitude many have regarding Y2K.

In each case, these survivors told of parents seeing the signs of trouble, and endured ridicule and scorn while the chorus of if there were problems, they would happen "over there". No one wanted to believe there was a crisis coming, even after there was clear evidence that there were mass executions and displacements going on in other towns.

In my wife's aunt's case, the town in Italy refused to believe the Nazis would destroy their village during their retreat from the Allies. Her mother pleaded for her father to take them to the mountains but he refused, saying they would be safe. He would leave with them if they had word the troops were marching into the town.

He didn't think about shelling or carpet bombing before they came into the town. And granted- though this was a war,and Y2K is an event, the lessons I learned are the same; Your life can change in an instant. Make decisions and be ready to move or take shelter BEFORE catastrophe hits.

Watch and see the signs of the times. If others think you're nuts...let them. You will be in the company of many survivors who lived through WWII because they took action BEFORE the real trouble hit.

Now to your questions:

1: I already suggested 3 days is insufficient. You may have only 3 hours.

2: Any event could trigger long lines at gas stations. I remember the OPEC embargo of '73. In this day and age if that happened, it would be REAL UGLY. We may have No warning. Look at gas prices in March when that California refinery blew up. What if there are several such blasts in the U.S. during testing of remediated systems? Gas rationing or shortages could happen at any time, almost overnight. Keep your tank full, and a spare can nearby.

3: Rural folk are generally untrusting of outsiders from my experience, but hospitable. If a mass-panic or rioting breaks out in cities and spreads...I guarantee the hostility to any outsider will be instant...out of fear. Folks I talk to in my area KNOW this nation is a powder keg waiting to blow. They're ready for a rematch of the Civil War. Medical patients and pharmacies being hostile to newbies will be the least of your worries. Like I said however, it takes a year to get established in a rural area. I still experience predjudice from the locals who dislike Yankees.

4: Being neighborly and helpful is a great way to belay the suspicions country folk have of transplants. Do not walk around with a superior attitude, be lowly and helpful. Country folk may be simple and not savvy on the city life, but they can at least live off the land. Something most folk have forgotten. Also, small towns do talk and gossip. Everyone knows everyones business and where they're from. Being discreet helps, but better they know a good bit about the basics from you than let the rumourmill get cranked-up. but again the best way to make friends and have community support is to have the TIME to make the connections. Moving in Dec. will not help.

Well, if I can do it with 3 small kids and a wife on NO budget or savings...anyone can. But you'll need the commitment and you either need to be self-employed or have sufficient savings to sustain you. Hiring outsiders is not a practice of most folk out in my area. If you plan to do this...do it soon.

And the most important thing you can is to pray about it.

I suggest you don't wait. Have the plan ready and be able to go at a blink of an eye.

There's alot of Titanic analogies that you could run your mind through about waiting too long.

Good luck to you.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 06, 1999.

Thank you, guys, for responding with such thoughtfulness and care to my questions. I appreciate the time you guys have taken to provide considerations that are quite helpful.

I have no choice but to hire a trusted friend to help me prep in my retreat spot. I'm a female with dependents, and with no GI fall-back family or position. I'm the breadwinner for many, and have no choice but to continue working here in L.A. until September, if I'm going to have the resources to sustain us for a six month period.

INVAR, your point about trusting the person I hire to help me supply-up is a point very well-taken. But it's the best I can figure to do. I think my experience/instincts about this person are solid. If my experience/instincts are THAT wrong, then in the end, and if things tank, me and my dependents are not likely to fair well anyway. But ya just give it your best shot, right? And it's the best I can do.

I believe I will move up my plans to relocate to October now. It's starting to make compelling sense.

Again, thank you for all your response and thoughts. I've heard them with a particular care.

Mapping an alternate route, with my Rand McNally in hand,

IPQ

-- IPQ (IdProQuo@aol.com), July 06, 1999.

IPQ- I second the motion that you need to be prepared to go really fast if things get bad; how long did you have notice before things got bad in LA with the aquital of the cops?

Try to find a storage place along the way, in a town where you can leave cans of gas with a preservative added plus other stuff if needed; a lock your own bin type of deal.

Try, as was suggested, to make it up to your new "home" as much as you can this summer and Fall. Go to the stores, find a church, get check cashing cards at the stores, open a bank account- yeah, maybe none of this will work, but it gives you an in now. Get to know your neighbors- think of what you're going to tell them- is this place to be a "vacation home"?? tell the same story. People WILL talk- rural people are always curious about folks from away and the rumour mill flies- no harm meant often. Attend events up there- Labor Day Parade, church picnic, library book sale, etc- meet the neigbors and size up the area. If you can, get a local newspaper delivered to you down in LA- you'll know what's happening that way.

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), July 06, 1999.

>1. Is a three day margin reasonable (see #4 above)? Does anybody >foresee interstate relocation restrictions being put into place >within as short a period as three days,

Three days is NOT reasonable. In your shoes I would be ready to go on an hours notice. Remember you have half a day of driving planned under circumstances that made you nervous enough to leave home for 'da hills'. What do you think everybody else will be doing for twelve hours? Ever try to leave a populated area when everyone else decides to at the same time? (I have). You are kidding yourself if you think it's a good plan.

>2. What is your guess as to the likelihood that gas might be rationed >before Dec. 15th, and do you think we will have any warning of such a >thing happening? If so, how much warning do you think we might have? >I will have to drive, which will require 3 tanks of gas.

Warning? To the general public? None. I don't think it will be rationed, but it IS possible. I sure would not count on finding gas on the road while you are getting outa dodge.

>3. At what point and what unfolding events do you think will cause >people of a rural area to become hostile to newbies? What are some >things to consider about hostility toward newbies (i.e., doctors not >accepting new patients, pharmacies of this small area not accepting >new prescriptions) etc?

Too late, already happened about 150 years ago. Let me tell you.... I would not PLAN on getting help or supplies in a tense situation from the locals if you are a newbie. They might, they might not. Don't count on it. Now, in the city I would say you can count on getting your throat cut if you make too many people nervous or greedy, but in the country you just can't count on help. Definition of a newbie changes by area. In some places your children MIGHT be considered locals, in others you would be kin in less than two years if you are lucky. It does not happen in weeks or months, but years at least.

Oh, and DON'T fence and post your land. If the neigbors boys hunted them woods for two generations before you got there you will just piss off everybody by posting it. Encourage them to ask permission but always say yes unless they outright cause trouble.

>4. How does one make friends with people in an unfamiliar rural >community, but stay quiet, discreet and somewhat invisible at the >same time? Which is the better strategy in these circumstances? I am >quite interested in the thoughts of those who live rural. Fact >to the matter is, I feel rather humble, hence shy, about moving into >their territory.

Rules: 1) NEVER EVER poke your nose in someone else's business uninvited. 2) Read #1 a few more times. 3) Offer help when you see it needed with as few words as possible. Talk is bad. Talk is bad. Talk is bad. Got it? You will be judged by your actions. Say something good, it means little. Say something bad and it will never be forgotten. DO something good and it will be remembered. If you see someone on the side of the road with the hood up, stop and say four words: "Anything I can do?" Do NOT say "You shoulda kept it tuned up" or "My Chevy never breaks down the way these Fords do". If it's somebodies Mother or Aunt you helped, and you were respectful, and you went out of your way to make sure they were ok (follow them to town or garage or home to see they got there) then their whole family will hear of it.

If it snows... Before you shovel your driveway go to the neighbors and shovel your way into their doors just to ask if they are Ok or need any help. If you see them shoveling their drive go help them. A simple 'Hello' will do before you start shovelling. Don't yak while you work. Just do your fair share of the job. If they offer coffee or hot chocolate say yes, it's a good sign. If they offer cash, do your best to refuse. A simple "that's what neighbors are for" is expected.

If the power goes out more than a few hours go see your neighbors and ask if they are ok and if they need anything. They will be fine and won't need anything, but ask anyway. If they DO need something do your best to help. Word will get out to the family.

Look, your plan is better than nothing but not by much. You are looking at what is normally a stressful situation (picking up and moving to another way of life) and planning on doing it under life threatening circumstances. This does not sound like planning so much as hoping.

You want to fit in around that area? You have to be there before anything else even begins. So it's twelve hours away. Start going there 2-3 weekends a month. Get to know the area and the way back and forth. The advce to stay off the interstate if you can is good advice.

The single biggest piece of advice I can give you.... If you think being there will be healthier for you than being in the city, go there LONG before you think you 'must'. Figure starting by September at the latest on spending every weekend there. Once your level of nervousness rises enough then just forget to home one of those weekends. You will be FAR better off saying "Hmmm, looks unsettled, I think we'll stay here in the country instead of going back" than if are stuck with "Uh Oh, looks bad, We better run to the backwoods tonight".

-- Art Welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), July 06, 1999.

Firstly, thanks for this forum! Secondly, does anyone else have this problem: My husband's job is in the city (we live in the apt. building that he works in). His job may require him to stay put to oversee that things go smoothly in the building. We have a one year old son. My thinking is cloudier the nearer we get to "problems"...I have prepped since May of THIS year...have food, fire, warm clothes and sleeping bags, bugout bags. I have spoken with a realtor in a rural area and asked for a rustic cabin for our "millenial celebration" (sounds far fetched for freezing cold month of December, doesn't it??!!)...anyway, I am waiting for a response from this realtor. Does it sound ridiculous to anyone that I would take my one year old son in the car with a tank of gas and an extra can of gas and "wing it" rather than staying in the apartment where my husband has "access" to various locked areas (won't help much if sewers/fires are a problem).

-- NSmith (nitnat3@aol.com), July 06, 1999.

I think keeping enuf gasoline to get you where you're going is probably a prudent idea. Home Depot carries a product called Stabil which will stabilize the fuel to store it. I wouldn't buy until the summer Oxy seasons are over for gasoline. This will enable you to have winterized gasoline if you're going somewhere's chilly. Oposite of course if you're going somewhere hot hot hot.

I have heard from very reliable source that one southwestern state has a Plan B wherein they commandeer tanker trucks from third parties to maintain the generators stationed throughout metro area. This is not some crap I heard thirdhand. This came from a state government/local Fema meeting. What this will mean is that they will have first dibs on fuel and you will not. This means get it while you can. Also, we in the oil industry fully expect Bubba out there to panic some time in Dec. Despite the fact that there will be gasoline refined up until Dec 31 gauranteed, Bubba can create a hell of a blip in the supply chain prior to that date, which will reinforce the supply disruptions theory. This is a self fullfilling problem similar to the banking issue. Tertiary and Secondary storage is simply not designed to allow for mass fill-ups.

Best of luck to you and yours in the new year. Signed

Someone from the oil industry who cares.

-- Gordon Gecko (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), July 06, 1999.

IPQ

I am no more than a half a tank of gas away from my rural bugout spot. I used to wait until the light went on to warn me about the gas tank being almost empty. I used to make bets with people as to how long it would take to go on. I would drive my wife nuts this way.

My tank now never gets below 3/4 full before I fill up again, and I have a 5-gallon tank in the trunk. I will have bugout bags ready by September.

Three refills is too many unless you can securely store some with 24-hour access along the way. I use a U-Store for many preps now, but I will have to move them in the fall since I do not have 24-hour access.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 07, 1999.

Regarding your rural bug-out site: I would try and live there off and on as much as possible to check out your place and see what you need. I have lived in my rural area for 11 years. In non-emergency situations, it still takes a non-relative 1-3 months to get an appointment with THE electrician (month for THE plumber.) Deliveries of fuel and lumber are made only when THE store has other deliveries in my particular neck of the woods. (Forget deliveries after it snows.) Forget hiring a handyman. Isn't one. Learn to do simple repairs yourself. Things just move a lot slower out here.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), July 08, 1999.

Art: you really covered it. IPQ, listen to what he said.

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 09, 1999.

Two dates I have heard that you may want to know about...

The first I have heard is that FEMA is planning on activating it's activities between September 1, 1999 and March 31, 1999. This would not ordinarily be of consequence, but if you check Executive Order 12919 signed into law by president clinton you will find that in National Emergencies, FEMA has the power to commandeer all power, fuel, transportation, water, food supplies, etc. etc. I don't personally think travel will be restricted at this time, but that is MY opinion.

The second date I have heard mentioned is December 1, 1999. Panic buying and money withdrawals should have begun by this time, and I believe the president will declare some kind of emergency on this date to stop runs on the banks, etc. If I were you, I would plan on being where I wanna be before December 1.

I have received this information through the grapevine, and have no data no support it. If you are interested in the scenario I expect to occur, you will find it here.

Your new neighbors will probably be the least of your worries if anything significant happens. Ithink if it does, a lot of people are going to need to band together for their common interest, and as long as you bring "RESOURCES" (gas, food, ammunition, supplies, shelter, land) to the table, you should be able to deal with your new neighbors, and hey, if nothing serious happens, you can just head back to LA!!!

PS. The "fly" bag is a MUST. I have made the mental preps to get myself, my gear, and all out of my house within one hour. I think if an emergency is declared, they will announce the shutdown of roads "in 24 hours" or something along those lines. Be prepared and may God protect everyone.

-- Copycat (dobbie@coastalnet.com), July 14, 1999.

I can relate to your problem. Ours is kind of the opposite. We have children that need to get home that live 2-3.5 hours away. One we have to go and get and we may need to help the other since it is a family.

I bought a set of maps of county roads. With this large book of maps I can tell where ALL of the roads are even dirt ones. All states probably have them available through the DOT where I got mine. Consider checking this out. When we lived in Phoenix, a store called The World Of Maps had great maps for Arizona that had all of the back roads bound into a book.

Also I vote for Art's method of going to your retreat each week-end and just not coming back if your level of tension is too high. Also this becomes "routine" for your family and won't raise suspicion.

-- Beckie (sunshine_horses@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.

One hint, FWIW:

Do an address change to the "vacation home" address, get a new drivers license with that address on it and reregister your vehicle there too. Then if you gotta go in a hurry and "controls" are in place and unavoidable, you'll be going home, not fleeing from somewhere running to someplace else. And they'll most likely let you by if your documents match your story... .

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), July 19, 1999.

One thing PNG & I agree on: documentation is likely to be the most overlooked item. It is one of the most crucial...

Emergency essentials has a couple of good pages concerning this. Can somebody help me hotlink, please? {I swear, I'll get my teen to teach his decrepit mom to do this one of these days-- he's at a scout meeting now, though}

"Preserving and proving Your Identitiy and Worth in an Emergency":

http://www.beprepared.com/Articles/documents.html

"Safeguard Your Documents Against Fire & Flood":

http:www.beprepared.com/Articles/safedoc.html

-- flora (***@__._), July 19, 1999.

FWIW, after reading all the comments about getting to a their "relocation" place. Just thought I'd throw out a phrase I see all the time along the Interstates... "Controlled access highway". I'm just a youngster, but I seem to remember that one of the original intents of the Interstate highway system was to provide a method to move vehicles (i.e. Governmental vehicles) effectively throughout the country in times of trouble. Hence the reason for being able to "control access" - can't have our crucial transportation system clogged with "civilian traffic" now can we. Here on the great plains of Nebraska, I-80 is our major east-west thoroughfare. Out near North Platte there seems to be an invisible line as far as winter weather is concerned. It's not uncommon for them to close off the interstate (in one direction or another, sometimes both) due to snowstorms. It happens so often they already have gates built on the "on ramps" to do this. If they do it for snowstorms, you can bet they'll do it for other "emergencies" as well. Hence all the comments about planning a route using "country roads" are well taken. For those who are setting up stash points along the way (using a "rent a garage" for Y2K storage is a great idea - thanks!) would do well to consider the risk that their "chosen" route may be shut down due to "controlled access".

Great forum by the way. I just found it the other night, and have learned much already. It is comforting to know that I'm not the only "loony" who thinks things could tank next year. It's also scary to have your view of possible chaos next year reinforced when that the last thing you really want to believe.

EM

"If I'm wrong about Y2K I just have next year's shopping done early and really won't be out much. But if the pollys are wrong it'll be too late to shop, and they'll be out in the cold... Which kind of wrong would you rather be?"

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), July 22, 1999.

i can certainly understand why a person would bug out if their house catches fire. or if there is a chemical spill or something major like that also if you live in a city, i would have gotten out by now. however, i live in the suburbs 30 miles outside washington dc--granted a city. but i don't understand why it would be any safer for me in west virginia not when i have 80 neighbors in my back yard (most ex or currently military) and a whole community that is dubbed as "a military ghetto (actually it is very nice). do you think that hungry rural folks from west virginia or north carolina or any other state for that matter are not capable of killing you and robbing you in the rural areas? i think living in a deserted area could be just as dangerous. educate me.

-- t (applpie@aol.com), August 07, 1999.

IPQ - I think you need much better maps than Rand McNally. Their maps are excellent, yes, if you are travelling main roads. You may be in need of unknown, deserted, dirt roads. County maps and USGS topo maps for every area in between LA and your destination are a must. And USE them for your trial trips, so you can see how 12 highway hours translates into dirt-road-hours. Got 4-wheel drive? p.s. my mom lives in LA. Wish she didn't. DWGI. *sigh*

-- mommacares (harringtondesignX@earthlink.net), August 08, 1999.