Where do we stand in terms of the critical dates - does anyone have any examples of failures occuring on July 1st? Any explanations (with data or facts) that can explain the abscence or presence of failures within the 49 U.S. states, etc.

Does anyone keep a tally with regards to the Y2K predictions...

-- qleap (qleap@excite.com), July 03, 1999

Answers

I hope sysman doesn't mind me stealing his line "Its' a year 2000 problem not a year 1999 problem".

-- Jammy (wesleyan@dog.com), July 03, 1999.

Yes, it is undoubtedly a year 2000 problem but so many of the "experts" claimed that we would see the effects pre-Jan '00.

Lets not dodge the legit question, I remember someone posting a link to a page containing predictions and the results. Qleap, I will try and locate the aforementioned post and send it to you...

-- dave thomas III (dthomas3@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999.

It looks to me like the problems could occur over a several weeks/months period as a zillian snafus gum up the works. I expect the code problems to peak by March or April, 2000. The severity might be apparent by the end of January. Then there is the posibillity of panic bank problems in December and January.

Fat

-- Fat_C (f@chance.com), July 03, 1999.

qleap - I have not heard of any problems. July 1st is the beginning of the 1999-2000 fiscal year for Australia and 46 US states. Because the current fiscal year includes 2000, and some of the software "looks ahead" to that year, there is the potential for Y2k failures to occur now. This is called the "JoAnne effect" (sp?). There were similar concerns about April 1 and April 6, but I heard no reports of problems. And I recall seeing a thread here that discussed the lack of problems, and what it might mean.

-- Bruce (bwebber@ameritech.net), July 03, 1999.

Two minor glitches were reported in a Boston newspaper. You can read about them and a about the significance of July 1st on the following thread:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

"Significance of States Fiscal Start"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000f20

Will something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

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Okay, guys, here's the $64 question. We all know April 1 is another drop dead day: fiscal Year rollovers for Japan, Canada and the state of NY (with the UK soon to follow, on April 6). So, what will happen? Will NY state pensioners suddenly not get their checks, etc. etc. Is this something serious or another red herring BS non-event. You folks with experience in programing these systems need to speak up on this. Ed, maybe you could chip in on this one. Thanks, everyone... Sandmann

-- Novacop (Sandmann@alasbab.com), March 28, 1999

Answers

Response to Wii something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?

Well, we know that it won't have any impact on embedded systems -- so we're not going to see any failures of process control systems, refineries, utilities, or things of that sort.

It also means that we're not going to see problems in PC BIOS chips or non-compliant PC operating systems.

The problems will exist in application programs that are aware of, and make use of, the end-date of the fiscal year, i.e., March 31, 2000. Thus, we're almost certainly talking about financial systems, tax systems, etc. It's likely to have the greatest impact on report- writing programs that spew out spreadsheet-looking reports with rows and columns of numbers, showing budget figures for all 12 months of the fiscal year.

Several people have argued that we probably won't see any problems in the day-to-day transaction-processing systems, e.g., the systems that process daily receipts and daily disbursements of funds. However, if there are any logic-checks that ask questions like, "Is this disbursement legitimate within the context of a full fiscal year?", THAT could cause problems.

As with most other aspects of Y2K, the bottom line is that we really don't know where and how the problems will hit. What's fairly obvious, given the experience from the Euro rollover, is that any minor or modest problems will be hidden pretty well within the bureaucracy. However, if it causes something comparable to the NJ food-stamp problem (yes, yes, I know that the officials have now described that problem as a non-Y2K problem), then it will be hard to cover up. If a hundred thousand retired civil service workers don't get their monthly pension check, you'll definitely see it on the evening news program.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 28, 1999.

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-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

The JAE:

http://www.computerpro.com/~phystad/jae.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

I have a 36-page list of Y2K glitches that have already happened. In the last 2 weeks, 4 major U.S. airports have had computer-related air traffic control problems (Minneapolis, Chicago, Charlotte, and I believe the last one is Atlanta). Will these do?

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999.

Poor brain-dead Smith, every time something fails somewhere, "it's Y2K related" - facts be damned. Must be sad to go through life hoping for the end of the world...

-- Y2K pro (2@641.com), July 03, 1999.

Despite the idiocy of the trolls, the fact is that most of the critical date predictions have been wrong so far. What is the problem with acknowledging that? Y2K is a mess politically, socially and technically .... predicting it sensibly has also turned out to be a mess.

Undoubtedly, the noise level of Y2K JAE and test failures is rising. What we don't know is how high the noise level will get before rollover and we still don't know what will happen after rollover. My expectations on that score are well know, I won't repeat here.

If, by April 1, 2000, all we are seeing is a steady stream of minor Y2K irritations, I will consider that an enormous victory and thank God. I don't expect it, but I hope for it.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), July 03, 1999.

"the fact is that most of the critical date predictions have been wrong so far Translation:

Despite this admission, I will continue to believe that the end of the world is at hand - facts be damned.

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 03, 1999.

Bold off.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

The only date that is critical is 010100, and I have some doubts on how critical that one will be. I'm not an expert, but I can predict that as each of the "dates" go by they will be used as examples of how Y2K is no big deal. I expect 010100 will be touted that way by some too.

Y2Kpro, now that you're back please pay attention to Corrine1's trolling. She is just as obnoxious as you are, but she is amusing at it. With some effort you could be too. Insulting people and their beliefs is more fum if it is funny.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), July 03, 1999.

You are correct. It is "more fum when it is funny"..he,he...

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 03, 1999.