These are my personal projections which I update every few months. Note there are no probability changes from the Aug 98, Dec 98, or May 99 versions, because IMHO, the bad news has almost exactly counteracted the good news...

YEAR 2000 PREDICTED CRISIS SEVERITY

Probabilities assessed 1999-07-01

SCENARIO (EDWARDS / INFOMAGIC)	CRISIS SEVERITY	POSSIBLE EVENTS (US)	PROBABILITY OF 1 OR MORE EVENTS OCCURRING (% CHANCE)	AVERAGE DOW IN 2000	TECHNOLOGICAL REGRESSION	LARGEST SECURE POPULATION CENTER	TYPICAL PREPARATIONS	PROPONENT
1/1.0	NONE	power brownouts delays billing errors	100	10000	None	1,000,000+	copies of records
2/2.5	MILD	power outages 1 day stock market crash run on banks severe recession 1,000 deaths	99	8000	1995	1,000,000+	cash	Yardeni, deJager
3/4.0	MODERATE	power outages 1 week martial law depression 10,000 deaths	80	6000	1990	100,000	precious metal
4/5.5	SEVERE	power outages 1 month rioting severe depression 100,000 deaths	60	4000	1980	10,000	stored food & water	Hamasaki, Yourdon
5/7.0	CATASTROPHIC	power outages 6 months large cities become war zones economic & social collapse 1,000,000 deaths	40	2000	1950	5,000	firearms & ammunition
6/8.5	APOCALYPTIC	power outages 1 year fall of US government nuclear war 10,000,000 deaths	20	500	1850	remote location	non-hybrid seeds	North, Milne
7/10.0	UNIMAGINABLE	power outages 10+ years collapse of civilization foreign takeover 100,000,000+ deaths	1	0	Dark Ages	remote location	farm equipment	Infomagic

-- a (a@a.a), July 02, 1999

Please close

-- your fonts. (-@-.-), July 02, 1999.

There's another finely graduated 1-10 scale at this link:

http://wdcy2k.org/survey/survey99/

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 02, 1999.

a

After reading yesterday that the banks haven't even begun mandatory testing of electronic transfers of funds yet, I grew more pessimistic that the financial bubble could survive. It can't. It will collapse. And this country is not prepared for a shock of that magnitude. We are too reliant on international trade, electronic money and the division of labor to cope. We're going to a 10.

The only thing I don't buy into is a foreign invasion. The whole world is going to be so screwed that nothing like that could be organized. Frankly, nobody will be thinking geopolitically.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 02, 1999.

I don't know Dog Gone. China's Naval fleet is rather 'dated'. Will it wind up being superior in the face of a tech meltdown? Would they have enough ground troops to do the job? Me thinks so. The majority of China's population won't miss high tech too terribly bad. Just a few fleeting thoughts. Y2K = anything goes.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 02, 1999.

Chinese officials have already admitted that their refineries are likely to be lit up on New Year's Eve. Unless they've rigged sails to their navy ships, they ain't going anywhere. It takes incredible logistics to mount an invasion. Logistics are going to be in short supply pretty soon.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 02, 1999.

Ahhhhh. Invasion by Chinese 'junks', hmmmmm. Good point Dog Gone. What is the amount of fuel being stored by various governments, do we know? Who says they'll be hitting our shores first, hmmm? Logistics have never stopped previous historical invasions and battles, have they? Not argueing, just mulling, pondering if you will. The thing that makes our country so patheticly vulnerable is our inability to provide for ourselves and our reliance upon technology. Wouldn't this fact make countries like China fair far better in a 'meltdown' scenerio?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 02, 1999.

It's possible, even probable, that China would fare better than us. They certainly have more citizens who know how to live off the land. But they are highly computerized as well, often with pirated, unremediated software. They are going to take a real hit, too. Hardly the time to launch a war. Methinks, anywho...

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 02, 1999.

Will continue -

Logistics are the foundation of successful warfare. "Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics." Hence Vizzini's line in The Princess Bride:"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is 'Never get involved in a land war in Asia'..."

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 02, 1999.

Thanks Mac....good movie! Let's hope the Asians don't bring the ground war to us then. So, in your opinion, did the Afghanis humiliate the Russians with tactics or logistics?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 03, 1999.

Logistics.

Number of our rockets > number of their planes and helicopters.

Number of their fighters shooting > number of the Russian trucks drivers shooting back.

________

Hint: Don't worry about the Chinese invasion here until the Chinese invasion of Tawian has finished.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), July 03, 1999.

your input is always welcome Robert! I shall discontinue this thought pattern now, and attempt to soothe an ongoing political rant. Talley- hooooo.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 03, 1999.