Keeping Logs of Downed Power Lines?

This post has been in my mind for half a year --- I'm putting it on the air as -- hopefully -- my last distraction from getting back to my y2k personal preps.

Caveat: I used to be CERTAIN the entire grid will go down on 1/1/00. I no longer feel certain making ANY kind of prediction about when or if -- this post is not about predicting whether it will go down at all. It DOES impact on predicting -- if it does go down -- HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO BRING IT BACK UP

Because of my love of snow and mountains and downhill skiing in 1965 I decided I wanted to spend the rest of my life living in the West, above the timberline. Well, as with all of life, it was a compromise. However, I did manage to live round the year in Lake Tahoe for 2 years, then 5 more winters up there, 7 months at a time (took a lot of working around an ER sched down in the Bay Area 'flatlands' -- spent a lot of 7-day weeks in the summers covering for 'normal' docs' vacations.) Then I spent many long winter stretches in the Washington Cascades, 2 full summers on the Mt. Hood, OR, glacier. Then a year in Blackcomb, B.C., a year in Sun Valley, ID, 3 years in Park City, UT, a year in Wyoming (near Red Lodge ski area, MT.)

What did I learn during those 35 years? When winter comes THE POWER LINES GO DOWN!!!! Snow, wind, drifts, ice, vehicles crashing into power poles. How long? Hours to sometimes days. Example. I was the ER doc on duty at Tahoe Forest Hospital in Truckee, CA, when the area was hit by a "Sierra Cement" snowstorm: dropped one FOOT per HOUR for 4 hours; then a break and another TWO feet. No point in returning to my house trailer in Tahoe City 18 miles south --- all the power was out in T.C. for THREE DAYS.

So when I finally returned to the trailer park in T.C. what did I find? My trailer home almost destroyed by 1 foot of water throughout: power went out --> pipes froze --> power came back on --> city water pumps re-started --> Noah revisited Tahoe City.

What had happened? Well, we got the scoop from one of our nurses, who's hubby was a PGE lineman (She didn't see much of him during the winter months -- he'd be gone days at a time after every big storm.) Don't remember the details, but it included cars/trucks knocking down utility poles, blizzard winds knocking down trees knocking down poles (Hey, ever hear of the ORIGINAL 'domino effect?'), and snow/ice loading popping lines like so much cobweb material. All of this left live bare wires lying on the ground, draped across roads, wrapped around building structures.

Why couldn't they bring the power back up sooner? THEY HAD TO LOCATE EACH DOWNED LINE, AND THEN GO OUT AND REPAIR IT. Do you think they could throw the switch --- with 220vAC, or 4800vAC, or 7200vAC squirting out the ends of all the broken lines?

OK, envision this POSSIBILITY. Around Jan 1, 2000 there's a humongous western states winter storm. Or how 'bout a midwestern storm, or an eastern storm, or a deep South Ice Storm (We apparently specialize in those around these parts.) --- or maybe two of them at once? Many lines go down locally, maybe even regionally.

Then a few well-placed y2k-caused 'faux pas' TEMPORARILY take down some power generators, taking down a regional grid, in the area of the winter storm. Next, since the whole team is on duty, because of wisely-cancelled vacation scheds, the systems are brought back up within hours or maybe a day.

But DURING THE TIME OF THE BLACKOUT various local lines went down --- HOWEVER NO ONE BECAME AWARE OF THE DOWNED LINES -- BECAUSE THE POWER WAS ALREADY OFF -- SO THEY COULDN'T TELL THEY HAD JUST LOST THEIR LOCAL LINES. SO THERE WAS NO REPORTING IN BY LINEMEN, LOGGING THE LOCATION OF THE DOWNED LINES --- THEREFORE THERE WERE NO ENTRIES INTO THE LOGBOOKS.

Now back at the ranch: DO THE GUYS BACK AT THE PLANT THROW THE SWITCH AFTER THEY REPAIR THE GENERATING SYSTEM -- NOT KNOWING IF/WHERE THERE ARE 'HOT' LINES LYING ACROSS HIGHWAYS, HOMES, SAFEWAY STORES, YOU NAME IT?

Could something like this have aggravated the Quebec Province debacle last year?

I'm not an expert in electric power grid technology. Is there anyone on this forum who is, who could answer my question? Or can one of you who's buddies with Rick Cowles, Dick Mills, or the other gurus, pass this post on to them for their comments?

Looking into the future, darkly (?),

---- Bill

-- William J. Schenker, MD (wjs@linkfast.net), June 30, 1999

Answers

Now surely there's a Polly out there who can help the Doctor feel better. Yes???

-- A. Hambley (a.hambley@usa.net), June 30, 1999.

It can easily happen. In 1998, our power went off before Christmas during a heavy snow storm. In such storms, we are all snowed in until one of the neighbors ploughs the roads. I cannot see other houses, so I was not aware that the power had gone back on the second day. My son discovered on the fourth day that a tree had fallen over the line to our house.

This is one reason I have prepared. Although we had a fireplace, I have never been so cold in all my life. It took all our energy just to keep warm. I now have a nice insert, a second woodstove downstairs and two kerosene heaters. It doesn't heat the whole house, but at least we have a few warm rooms.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 30, 1999.

Now come on Doc. I dont practice medicine, dont you practice running a power system.

You are confusing apples with oranges. If a line is blown down or knocked down the relays, or in the case of some distribution, fuses will trip the line out of service. If the line is knocked down after the power is out it will trip on re-energization. There are some exceptions. Certain surfaces tend to act as very good insulators and sometimes the fault current can actually be less then the load current.

You are also confusing transmission and distribution. What happened in Quebec was due to the collapse of major transmission towers that couldnt stand the ice loading. How faults are located in transmission is different than distribution in most of the cases.

The power would be restored in a section by section bases. If the line were down a relay would trip or a fuse would blow. Then the other areas would have power but that one area would not.

Y2K doesnt come into it. How power is restored after a major storm is all planned out way ahead of time. The linemen don't have to log the downed lines ahead of time. And there are many stations between the plant and the lines feeding your house.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), June 30, 1999.

ENGINEER:

Hey, tnx for the answer -- it sounds reasonable. If I can get confirmation from one other electric Util techie I'll feel even better.

As far as hoo practices medicine and hoo doesn't --- almost everyone nowadays does, with or without a background/experience. Which is kool. I always encouraged my patients to do their own thinking and not take The Authority's word, just bec it was from an Authority.

And if y2k is more than a BITR, YOU had better start 'practicing medicine' 'cause we 'men in white' will be be rarer than diesel generators.

Alternatingly yours, and Directly responsible for my eccentric takes,

Bill

-- William J. Schenker, MD (wjs@linkfast.net), June 30, 1999.

This came in email alert

To friends who are concerned about Y2K:

A friend who works for a computer company sent me this message this week. For obvious reasons, he wishes to remain unidentified, since free speech is not permitted there.

If you forward this to other people please delete my name from this (I didn't write the message below, merely am forwarding it).

Part of the truth of the situation is that no one can honestly say exactly what will happen to the power grid at the rollover. But the recent spate of "trust us, we're ready" reports from a few utilities that did not use the term "compliant" and worse, seem like form letters written by lawyers and do not inspire confidence. I would not recommend betting one's life, one's family, one's community, one's civilization on their unverified claims.

I highly recommend reading the contingency plan at www.wscc.com/y2k.htm -- the Western Systems Coordinating Council (western US/Canada power grid) doesn't trust the standard assurances of compliance from MCI and has a contingency plan for satellite phones for utilities to communicate with each other. It's a fascinating read.

by the way,
www.realgoods.com
is having a sale on selected solar panels until July 19
www.homepower.com
www.alt-energy.com
www.jademountain.com
are also good sources for renewable Y2K-compliant energy systems.

______________________________________________________________________ _______

In this message, I've substituted [company] for a certain large computerized company that makes electronics and [utility] for a certain large utility that distributes lots of electrons over a large region of North America -- sorry for the secrecy.

_________________

The real tidbit that I have acquired was from a general manager in charge of facilities here at the [company] plant (I had a long talk with him last week).

The [utility] assured him in writing that:

1. At the first sign of trouble after midnight on the first they are "turning OFF the entire grid and then they will turn it back on in four hours in a "islanding" situation to preferred and y2k compliant customer only" (by prearranged planning of which the manager claims [company] is cause we assured them we are y2kready (which we aren't which is a whole nother story)).

[utility] will charge the lines with only 150,000 volts instead of 200,000 and no more for quite some time. Now here is the kicker: They [utility] plans to give the power to only those who promise to use only 150,000 to ensure no spikes: no more no less !!!!! To Ensure the grid doesn't experience any more failures.

The whole world is off for holiday ( [company] is closing this whole site, then starting up very slowly fixing the problems as we go).

Isn't this about the same way everyone and every user will try to meet the new year???? Thus its a no brainier. User use will NOT be the steady 150,000 volt usage that a islanding situation DEMANDS. Therefore spikes and the whole grid collapses again and again.

Then [utility] has told [company] once you blow your island it's officially:
Get in line buddy we will get to you when we can .....

There's more when [utility] gave these assurances of power it end with this scary statement:

I quote: "[utility] is planning for the largest cyber terrorist attack ever on the night of y2k and if so they will NOT recharge the grid until all bugs are out of the system with likely down time being in weeks and possible months.

SO you tell me, where is truth in all of this ???

[company] is not ready but we tell [utility] we are.

Hell I will bet [utility] is not ready but says it is and when all hell breaks out from Y2K we can always say some 11 year old hacker took it down??????? No blame No worry hey ???

O.K. the official /press/media/multinational message is no problem, so I ask why all the trouble to pass a law shielding the high tech industry from all the greedy lawyers when the trouble hits if the real impact of y2k is nothing to worry about ??

Y2K still has the potential to take modernism down.

Yes the US made gallant attempt and spent a hell of alot money but WE didn't slay the dragon and the rest of the world is in big trouble.

Russia and Venezuela and Asia are still burnt toast.

The old saying still holds:
We the USA are toast and the rest of the world is burnt toast.

Oh well, whatever you do don't take your money out of the bank! Yeah right!

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-- email (email@email.email), July 05, 1999.