J.X.D.: An interesting study would be to see how many readers migrate to other "end is near" sites (i.e., apocalyptic forecasts of a non-y2k nature) -- This comment is pulled from another thread in this forum.

This is a good question. Personally, I haven't ever been involved in any such movements, and it annoys me to no end to be associated with certain notorious whackos. My sense of things, though, is that the percentage of posters in this forum who have migrated from some other apocalyptic movement is very small. To help in discussing this issue, just what movements are we talking about? Not having been involved in any myself, I'm having some difficulty thinking them up. Here's what comes to mind:

Year 1000 Millennialism - before my time Year 1900 Millennialism - before my time UFO Stuff - never seen a believable story, ... yet Antichrist Stuff - not applicable, irreligious Various other "cult" type raptures - ditto New World Order & Conspiracy - I haven't really been exposed Nostradamus - haven't followed this, can't really read it

I'm sure there are others of these that are just not coming to my search engine. To those of you who believe that Y2K doomers are transplanted from some other doom philosophy: Please give us more to choose from.

On the other hand, preparedness is something like interior decorating. When you put up new wallpaper, suddenly your light fixtures look shabby. Now that I've got some food and a little sani-potty on hand, I'm thinking it wouldn't be such a bad idea to dig a modest fallout shelter. Is this what people mean by how we're jumping from one wild-eyed scenario to the next?

Y2K is causing a lot of us to realize just how fragile our infrastructure really is. There's a variety of events which could trigger a meltdown. So... when I get my ham license, you can bet I'm going to buffer a radio against NEMP. Just because some people fear both y2k and nuclear events, does not make either problem less likely.

The tendency is for mainstream press to marginalize people who are making preparations. Their audiences have a strong need to not be 'wrong' and to not appear foolish. Negative media coverage is a powerful voice against preparing, so it very effectively polarizes the population into doomers and DGIs. The suggestion is that people who prepare do so out of some deep seated psychological need that is independent of the facts. This belief short circuits people's ability to examine the actual facts of the situation for themselves.

-- Dancr (minddancr@aol.com), June 23, 1999

Answers

Certainly I can attest that I have never before been "drawn" to anything that promotes "the end of the world". In fact, having grown up around Washington, D.C., early on I think that I simply accepted that should there be a nuclear war, D.C. would be hit hard. But I never really worried about it, hoping that we could always count on rational people on both sides not wanting to launch the missles.

I do believe that Y2K will potentially put us at TEOTWAWKI -- with only bad computer code, not rational people, calling the shots. I believe this on its own merits, as well as the reality (which I was previously oblivious to) that many of our systems are just plain weak -- such as our fractional reserve banking system, for example -- and are simply spread too thin.

If Y2K turns out to be a Big Nothing, I believe that I will still be uneasy about many things that I previously had never thought about.

Hope this is what you were looking for, Dancr....

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), June 23, 1999.

I think that most of us are aware that this is a pretty dumb question. Actually, Y2K PRO's and a few REAL doom zombies comments aside, I think that majority of the participants in this forum are in fact attached to LIFE, and would like to see it continue after this historic event takes place. Life, afterall, is the reason to be prepared for the possibility of hardship.

I know that this is too obscure for many of the Don't Wanna Get Its to understand, but we live in dangerous times, and there is a possibility that things may soon get more dangerous "closer to home," not just in far off mythical lands like Kosovo.

Go take a look at the "Debunker" site sometime, and then judge who REALLY seems to care about people and life.

-- (dot@dot.dot), June 23, 1999.

Sorry Dancr,

I have never been drawn to any apocalyptic (sp?) religion/prophet/trend/etc... before and I actually don't see this in that light. I also agree that as I investigated our infrastructure in my local area I became very aware of how fragile a system it is. Add in that I am now a parent and I choose to be more prepared for hard times then ever before. I have always been skeptical whether you are discussing government, organized religion or whatnot - it seems pretty simple to me that I love life, want to protect my family (and community/way of life!) and feel that we are possibly on the brink of big changes (ie: Y2k, war, you name it). Anyhow..... my 2 cents worth (:=

Sincerely,

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 23, 1999.

When the monkeys have figured out how to pick the lock on the monkey house, the zoo keeper needs to take immediate action. Ever since Dolly the sheep, there has been a massive worldwide effort to clone a human. Last Nov. in Canada, a human embryo was take to 580 cells and stopped. In April, Advance Cellular Inc. in New England took an embryo to 14 days and stopped. Sunday the AMA meeting in Chicago requested a moritorium for five years until regulatory laws be written. The labs dismissed the request. There are billions of dollars at stake in this modern biological gold rush. The genome is nearly mapped and with it cellular differentation can be done. The human embryo can be cloned anacephalic, that is without a brain. It is now not human but an entity. The embryo can be grown to full term in a pig, removed and the organs harvested and sold. This is not science fiction. It will be here soon unless stopped. Some view this as a modern miracle to save thousands of lives. Others view it as premeditated human murder. Think about it...In my opinion, there exists a powerful God who made us. We are about to see a judgment like none other in human history. Get ready, the zoo keeper is coming. dr. don

-- dr. don (don29681@aol.com), June 23, 1999.

Dancr:

Maybe. I don't consider myself to be a Yourdonite. I found this site in the latter part of JAN99 and read postings of some whose beliefs regarding the end times paralleled my own. I like Pastor Brown's thoughts and views.

I don't know what the severity of Y2K will be, but I anticipate all the judgments and plagues of Revelation being fulfilled soon after Y2K. This groups me with the nutcase fanatics.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 23, 1999.

Interesting...baby parts and the host can still be used for my bacon sandwich...can I have the chicken instead?...never mind, give me a veggie burger please...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 23, 1999.

Answer to Subject: No.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 24, 1999.

Hey man, I'm just a programmer that's worried about a computer problem Screw this. <:(=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 24, 1999.

dr. don, dancr, Randolph: Something, if not many things, extremely profound is going to happen in the next couple of years. Earth shattering. I feel it coming. I don't have to read tea leaves. I can read between the lines of the WSJ.

If that makes me a psychotic, so be it. But I happen to think its because I know how to use my brain and am pretty well read. Of course, I also believe that there is more intelligence in a drop of pond water than in the sum total of the pollyannas on this forum (with the possible exception of Flint, who just seems confused. :)

As far as whether it's God Almighty that's going to settle the score, I think that might be a little anthropomorphic. It may just be "the way it is". Synchronicity, it seems, is like that. Life is full of hidden codes and variables, from the DNA, to the Torah Code, to crop circles. A lot of it exists on the boundary of the Real and the Imaginary, just as the beauty of a fractal is created on the boundary of the Complex plane (the set of all numbers of the form z=a + bi, where a is a real and b is an imaginary number). Contrary to what most scientists believe, we know a hell of a lot less about the Universe than we think we do. We just know a lot about what we think we know. Here's the clone story, found on, as Decker calls it, a "junk science" site:

http://www.sightings.com/ufo4/humclone.htm

-- a (a@a.a), June 24, 1999.

OK, I think it's time to fess up to all the pollys out there. We of the TEOTWAKI church have been secretly e-mailing each other for months. We have agreed to meet at a secret location in Canton, Ohio for a celebritory feast of Kentucky Fried Chicken and PURPLE KOOL- AID. We will then gather outside to await the return of Hale Bopp which will whisk us off for our rendevous with the reptilian people of Mars, who are actually our forebearers. We will then telepathicly cause the earth to hurtle towards Pluto. Have a nice day.

-- Gia (Laureltree7@hotmail.com), June 24, 1999.

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 30157261&P=No&TL=930157261

Is there an entirely new batch of "GIs?" Wednesday, 23-Jun-1999 13:01:01 206.99.225.3 writes:

Hmmmm...a lot of names on Stinkbomb 2000 that I don't recognize. Seems to be a new batch of doom zombies going through the same old batch of rumors.

This thread caught my eye.

"The AMAZING PREP SAFETY BUBBLE!!! Get your's now while denial lasts!"

Quote: "(Y2k = power outages = better stock up on beans and ammo)"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000zWE

Buddy

It sure appears that way Wednesday, 23-Jun-1999 13:31:08 166.34.139.153 writes:

We've got Brian (imager), Stan, and Dennis and I even think that Will Continue is relatively new. It seems that the religious fever is catching on. And they also appear to be getting more vile. I wonder if they'll all kill themselves as in some cults. Maybe we can convince them that Ed Yourgod didn't really go away but is building a space ship for only the chosen ones.

Maria

Screen names, real names but stay tuned. Soon the "real players" will come out Wednesday, 23-Jun-1999 13:20:38 151.164.57.27 writes:

Soon, the "vested interests" (read: vendors) of Y2k supplies will reveal themselves.

Currently, the takeover of EY's joint is almost complete by the survivalists and fruitcakes playing into their hands.

However, as their market contracts, the part timers will leave. The uncommitted will be repulsed by the wild claims (98 million bugs).

Then the vendors will have to try to keep it up as best they can.

You are witnessing the HYPE DYING NOW.

All this assumes no "Catastrophe". I worry about POLITICAL TERRORISM. As long as Bin Laden and others like him are out there we have a problem far more real than "Y2k impacts" MYTHOLOGIES invented to sell DRIED FOOD AND GOLD COINS.

cpr

-- Another (new@n.ame), June 24, 1999.

Nothing new about anyone doubting the possibilities of the end of the SYSTEM, (it's a slave system and deserves to die).

The early Christians had the same problem as noted in the following...(2 Pet 3:4 KJV) "And saying, Where is the promise of his coming? for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of the creation."

Nothing new.

-- freeman (freeman@cali.com), June 24, 1999.

People who create data by "reading between the lines" and "connecting the dots" drive me nuts!

What are the facts, and to how many decimal places?

-- Robert Heinlein (lotsabeers@mybunker.com), June 24, 1999.

Hi Dancr,

I will admit that I have been entertained by dystopic fiction since the early 80's, just like I enjoy watching the X-files. Do I believe in UFOs and "paranormal" phenomena? No. I love the skepticism of the Amazing Randi.

I enjoy watching post-apocalyptic movies because they always make ridiculous explanations about how it happened.

That being said, I've never wanted to live in one of them. Nor have I ever seen a reason, prior to Y2K, for there to be a detour on the road to technological progress. Life doesn't just all go to hell in a short time like that. It took centuries for the Romans to lose their empire.

Y2K is different because it's not just one problem, but a collection of problems arising during a relatively narrow time period. The only way that it can become an "apocalypse" is for people to react to it poorly. So far, I don't give most people a good grade.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), June 24, 1999.

Are Yourdonites drawn to the apocalyptic? In general, I doubt it. Not only am I not drawn to the apocalyptic, I am so repelled by it that it took me months of reading to start doing more than buy an occasional extra few cans of something when I went shopping. If you read the 'What about you' threads, you'll find that most here are representative of middle to upper class USA, with just a few of us Canucks, Aussies, Brits and others tossed in for spice. There was also a 'how did you GI' thread. I don't remember any saying that they got it because they were looking for something to explain the end of the world.

-- Tricia the Canuck (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), June 24, 1999.

Nope.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 24, 1999.

In a word, "yes". A random sampling of the archives demonstrates that. Following particular posters through this on-line forum is also a treat, from a medical perspective.

I do have to wonder how much of what is posted is *truly* believed by the individual, or merely a *desire* for what is to come.

Fascinating.

-- Psych Major (psychob@b.ler), June 24, 1999.

A good question, and I would entertain it if it weren't nearly the end of the world and I didn't have to prepare.

Doom and gloom is not me. I was shocked to find out that there is objective fact behind the Y2K "scare." Something is going on and it's not the same old show.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), June 24, 1999.

Psych Major-

I find the religious zealots to be the most satisfying case studies. for example:

"A word about the efforts to destroy this forum" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000e35

"A time for cool heads on the forum and..." http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000vWD

"even at this stage of the game, its still y2k, stupid" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000yZV

"Now For Something Completely Different: Thank You To Decker And Poole" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000pj3

"Recent Impersonations of "Me" on the Forum" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000ofM

"The Real Decker Shows His Colors" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000nSh

"Yes, It's Still (Still) Y2K, Stupid" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000mQQ

"A Word to the Old-Timers About Decker-Poole and BIFFY" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000no7

"A Word To Big Dog about Biffy and Debunkie" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000o0t

This individual has an incredible ability to focus on "converting" others to y2k believism, despite any and all facts.

Do you think many here have read "the Millennium Contagion"?

-- psych practitioner (iwouldr@ther.not), June 25, 1999.

I love being quoted out of context...

Dancr wrote, "[m]y sense of things, though, is that the percentage of posters in this forum who have migrated from some other apocalyptic movement is very small" in response to my quote.

They probably haven't. Yet.

The issue hasn't been shown to be a minor one yet, so their worldview is intact.

And as I mentioned, a more troubling concern is whether some readers do violence to themselves or others as their worldview (i.e., y2k is the end of the world) is shattered by a y2k non-event.

Similarly, Dancr wrote "Y2K is causing a lot of us to realize just how fragile our infrastructure really is. There's a variety of events which could trigger a meltdown. So... when I get my ham license, you can bet I'm going to buffer a radio against NEMP. Just because some people fear both y2k and nuclear events, does not make either problem less likely."

An interesting point, but the critical issue is how you address risk. Let's take an example. There is an actuarialy determinable probability that you will be killed in a car crash. Similarly, there is an actuarily determinable probability that you will die as a result of a nuclear accident. The probability of dying in a car crash is far higher -- and (in the case of a nuclear accident) so is the probability that any random selection of 1,000,000 people in the U.S. will be killed (although, to be sure, it wouldn't be a single car crash...) So... Should we prohibit cars?

Now, Y2k frightens people because some people believe that there is no statistical basis for determining Y2k risk. An unknown risk is therefore assumed to be a statistically large risk, even disregarding the fact that computers produce errors all the time even without y2k. That assumption is not necessarily rational, but instead an emotive behavior. That was the basis for my statement.

-- jxd (jxd29@hotmail.com), June 25, 1999.

"Something, if not many things, extremely profound is going to happen in the next couple of years. Earth shattering. I feel it coming. I don't have to read tea leaves. I can read between the lines of the WSJ..."

Alan's Millennial Madness Calendar List http://www.pr ovide.net/~aelewis/y2ko/y2ko_350.htm

-- alan (foo@bar.com), July 01, 1999.