More Info On JAPAN

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On June 14th, Paul Milne made the following post to CSY2K

"Our approximate Federal government Y2k budget is $7 BILLION . Guess what it is in Japan? "Government budget for Y2K preparation totals 19.3 billion yen ($163 million). " In other words we are spending 42 times what they are FORTY TWO times as much. You don't see a MAJOR problem here? I mean, even at the very worst, you don't think they should be spending a QUARTER or even one TENTH what we are? But no. You are completely mollified to hear that they are spending a little more than TWO CENTS for evey dollar that we are spending. Technologically they are no Namibia. Their government is one of the most technologically dependent in the world. And they are spending TWO cents for evry dollar that we spend. If you do not understand that Japan is toast by now, you are not going to make it. http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a2255LBY595reulb- 19990613&qt=y2k&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486 -"

The numbers Mr. Milne posts are correct, but one thing is missing from his equation:How many systems do the Japanese have to fix compared to the number the USA has to?

If you point your browsers to http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/y2k/imple2.html you will find the following about 4/5 of the way down the page:

"1. Central ministries and agencies, and public corporations (as of March 1, 1999 /except medical institutions)

Systems of rank A: 555 systems modifications completed (including systems to be identified that correction etc. does not need to be carried out.) 373 systems (67%) simulations completed 251 systems (45%) establishment of contingency plans 51 systems ( 9%) Systems of rank B: 375 systems modifications completed (the same as 1. Systems of rank A) 220 systems (59%)"

Rank A is defined as: "rank A:systems closely related with people's daily lives and corporate activities, such as human life, daily lives, properties, economic activity of corporations or maintenance of public safety and order systems concerned with trustful relationships with foreign countries or international organizations"

555 systems are found to be in Rank A. The United States government lists 6175 mission critical systems (source: http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/Scorecard.pdf). Using these numbers, Japan has 8.98% as many mission critical systems as the USA.

So how does this impact the amount of money Japan is spending on their systems compared to the USA?

US government has 6175 mission critical systems. Fed Gov Y2k budget is about $7 billion ($7,000,000,000)

$7,000,000,000 w 6175 = $1,133,603.24 per mission critical government system, on average

Japanese government has 555 mission critical systems. Japanese government Y2k budget is $163 million ($163,000,000)

$163,000,000 w 555 = $293,693.69 per mission critical (rank A) system, on average

$293,693.69 w $1,133,603.24 = 0.2590797905623, or 25.9%

While 25.9% of what we are spending I know will still not please a lot of people, I ask you to keep a few things in mind:

1)The Japanese are a highly efficient people. They are not driven by a desire for personal wealth as we American are. No source could be found on what a programmers are charging over there compared to the USA. If this is ever discovered I will post it.

2)The Japanese are a technological society, BUT as been stated by frequent posted PNG, the Japanese did not become that involved with computers in their everyday lives until Windows 95.

Do I wish they were spending more? Sure I do! I just can't stand "half stories" and what Milne posted was a "half story"

-- Now For The Rest Of The Story (filling@inthe.blanks), June 23, 1999

Answers

1) Japanese may be more efficient than others, or maybe they aren't. Apparently they are. This will make 2 or 3% difference to the outcome, tops. I don't know what programmers are charging in Japan, but I am under the impression that Japanese wages and cost of living are notably higher than those in other posh countries, so it would follow that their programmers' rates are relatively high to start with, and may or may not have increased due to y2k and the general IT worker shortage.

2) Maybe Japanese didn't have computers in their daily lives much until Win '95, (which had a Jap-language friendly interface?) but I feel very confident in guessing that Japanese big business took advantage of computerisation not much later than U.S. or Europe. Maybe earlier. They initiated JIT remember, which is made fully possible today only through widespread utilisation of computers. I'm certain their banking sector is about as computerised as anyone else's, for example. And Japan + embedded systems + y2k still spells economic disaster at least. Just think of all those major manufacturers that will have big problems.

But the posted article is about Japanese Government not industry, so, um,.. Yeah, maybe Japanes Government is not as computerised as U.S. government is. It's conceivable. But these figures do still show that they're spending only 25% of what U.S. is spending per "system". This might be ok, (assuming for a second that U.S. has budgeted enough) if your average Japanese government "system" is approximately one quarter the size/complexity/scale of the average U.S. gov system. AND, according to this article, Japanese government only has 9% of the number of "systems" that U.S. gov has, (and on average these systems are only 25% as "big" as U.S. "systems")......so according to this article, and assuming their y2k budgets are sufficient, Japanese government is computerised at ONE-FORTIETH the degree of which U.S. government is computerised.

OR, their budget looks pretty insufficient, relative to U.S. gov budgeting, which may itself be insufficient.

Now I'm not exactly a master of sadistics so be sure and post and tell me where my maths is all wrong. I'm being rushed out of a library here so I don't have time to give my thought s a once over. I'm disturbed by how close my numbers end up to Milne's numbers, seeing as how i basically agree with Flint that Milne is more of an advocate than a researcher, though he is kindof excellent at both.

Hmmm, I've read over it and it seems I've just replicated Milne's equations, but coming from a different angle. The basic argument is that Japan's 1/42 y2k budget allocation would be ok if it were conceivable that Japan's government is 1/42 as computerised as U'.S.' .

Which sounds implausible to me.

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 23, 1999.


Peter de Jager was blunt about Japan in this old, April 1998 article:

http://www.year2000.co.nz/y2kher29.htm

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Number Six,

I've seen postings worthy of kindergarteners on this forum. But you set a new standard for sub-grade-school intelligence. You know absolutely NOTHING about Japan, Japanese business, Japanese thinking, Japanese culture. Therefore you shouldn't post anything about anything that deals with Japan. Yet you do.

The numbers that 'Now for the Rest' posts are absolutely, 100%, CORRECT. Been there, checked that. Done the math, got the T-shirt. The Japanese government is spending about 25 - 26% per mission-critical system that the US gov't is spending. Incontrovertible FACT. But that's pretty much as expected, if you understand Japan. They get more done, per dollar/yen.

The fact that you use the term "Jap-language" shows that you are not only out of touch with the subject matter, but you are a racist as well.

I don't understand what your argument is here, to tell the truth. And I understand the Japanese probably better than anyone who has ever posted to this forum, PNG included.

You feel "very confident in guessing that Japanese big business took advantage of computerisation not much later than U.S. or Europe. Maybe earlier."???? GUESS AGAIN.

For your limited info, I happen to have been the 3rd American-born human being to go to work in a newly-built Japanese Toyota-conglomerate factory here in my hometown, in July 1995. These guys were cutting-edge smart Japanese people...yet when we suggested that they purchase Wintel computers with Windows 3.1, we got blank stares. They had their Japanese-language word processors, we had our digital calculators, pens, and paper, and we could make do with that, in their estimation. True story. Been there. Done that.

Shortly afterwards, a computer networking person was hired, and we shortly all had conmputers. I soon was daily distracted from my real job by Japanese bosses who wanted me to show them the ins and outs of Windows 95, the like of which they had never seen. (At the time I had a good aptitude for computers; at present I make my living working on PC's, and am pretty damn good at it). This was September 1995.

Point being, anyone on this forum who talks about what the Japanese do and don't do with regards to computers, fairly well are just flat ignorant. Anyone who doesn't understand the Japanese (which would encompass 99.5% of those who post here) has no clue what's going on in Japan with regards to Y2k. And, I would say that includes PNG. He lives there, but has no clue what's going on 'behind the scenes'.

How do I know what's going on behind the scenes? My family has done business with the largest monopoly in Japan since 1927. That was interrupted by WW2; but we were the first to resume trade after the war ended. PNG can't say that; no one can. My family are the only ones. Period.

The Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. once came to our state for a tour. His only social stop in the entire U.S.A. was a reception at my uncle's house. We know a few people in Japanese gov't.

Japanese culture cannot be compared to American, or Canadian, or English, or French, or any other Western culture. In food, business, everyday life, or anything else.

The original premise of this thread is correct. I'd bet money that anything else that will be added (besides what I've said) will be 100% ignorant know-nothing BS.

Andy where are ya, know it all?

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.


Chicken,

Here's the link to some commentary originally posted on this forum:

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2778

[snip]

I have lived and worked in Japan for 6 years (for one of the world's largest companies) as an engineer and global business consultant. As a 45 year old executive with a career built on rational problem solving, I am faced with an irrational situation that is almost too horrible to talk about. To understand the Japanese mindset and interpret the true nuance of the language and culture is something Americans are not good at.

1. 100% of all government surveys and corporate statements are for saving face and "image" only. This does not mean that they are lies in the Japanese image of lying. In the western image, they are false statements. In the Japanese image, they are hopes for the future. To discuss bad news is culturally equivalent to suicide. You can read the "whys" of this in the near future from other articles I'll be writing about the Japanese approach to y2k-only the Japanese would make a cartoon of a smiley face on a computer screen and call it y2k awareness. Suffice it to say that effort is being made by major utilities, telecommunications, international transportation and international banking to maintain the external image of Japan. The problem is that Japanese industrial and manufacturing strenght is based on automated production to minimize direct material costs. The major manufacturering executives are still in denial and assesments of automated systems have only started recently -- this year.

2. As electronic and industrial parts makers to the world, many Japanese companies are falsely issuing "no problem" compliance satements to any customer who asks for component compliance information. I have personally witnessed a major industrial automation and control manufacturer give an international customer a "fully compliant" report on a 7 year old building automation system without ever testing the system. The Japanese phrase "mondai nai" or "no problem" is the traditional Japanese business style of answering any request from a customer. If problems happen later, it is considered an opportunity to build a better relationship with the customer by solving the problem together. However, you must never let the customer worry before the problem happens...I know you think I am kidding, but I am deadly serious.

So, the resulting problems for global manufacturers using Japanese electronic parts, components, and relying on JIT (Just in Time) delivery are going to be in for a global shock when the Japanese manufacturers are unable to deliver just in time because of the breakdown of their own networks of vendors who have also failed to remediate their automated production lines. The volume of PCBs (Printed Curcuit Boards) delivered to American companies by Japanese vendors is enormous. These cannot be manufactured by hand. They will not be delivered on time and it only takes a few days without parts to stop a complete industry. . . .

Remember, the current Minister of Finance has stated that the first priority to improve the Japanese economy is to begin clearing the massive debt. He said the same thing when he was Prime Minister in 1993. Things move very slowly here when action is required, but many Japanese companies will not make it to the year 2000 because the global market forces at work now will force the Japanese economy to implode before then.

The lack of understanding of the importance of the Japanese economy to the global economy is nothing short of stupidity. . . .

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Linkmeister,

Like I said...

I bet everything after what I posted would be know-nothing BS.

What you posted was just that. You quotee proved in the first two sentences that he didn't understand the Japanese mind. And that can make all the difference as regards ones' perceptions, now can't it.

You said basically nothing.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.



For others who might try such stunts:

The Japanese mind cannot be formed or molded into the Western mind. Things that seem impossible to us, because of our structural way of looking at things, can be easily accomplished by people from the East. What seems totally impossible to us by conventional means can be done by their means: I've seen it done in an organizational sense too many times, when Western common sense told me it could not be done in "such a manner".

Of course the converse is true. Western ways produce efficiencies that Eastern ways never conceived. But having seen both sides of the fence in spades, I'd have to say that the Easterners are more "full of surprises".

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.


Chicken Little,

You've just said basically nothing, too. Instead of arguing ad hominen, tell us how your opinion of Japanese culture is different from the one at http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2778.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Chicken Little,

Looks like we posted at the same time. Thanks for the clarification. But, I don't think the idea that Japanese do things differently is a reliable indicator that all mission-critical systems there will be compliant.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Linkmeister,

Guess someone should send you a dictionary. Ad hominem (which you can't spell) means "appealing to one's prejudices, selfish interests, etc. rather than to reason."

The link you tout is a Gary North link, which automatically means:

(1) it has no clue about Japanese anything;

(2) it's severely biased toward the doomer point of view, and therefore fits the definition of ad hominem "to a T"

To sum up, you again fail completely to take anything away from what I have said.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.


One more fatal logical flaw Linkmeister -- you seem to think that all systems must be 100% compliant to avoid Doomsday?

Get an education, please. If that were true, we'd have been living in Doomsday for decades now. No system is ever 100% compliant. Never has been. Never will be.

Grab a clue, bud; they're all around. If you'll just look.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.



The argument that Milne is trying to make is that the Japanese have allocated a hopelessly inadequate budget for remediation of government systems.

It's sensible to ask first *whether* that budget is all that inadequate, before we start asking why. And the adequacy of the budget depends on a lot of factors we have little or no information about -- how many systems, how large they are, how old they are, what date conventions were used when writing them, how well-documented and well-structured they are (for ease of remediation), how well-managed these projects are, and many more.

Without this critical information, Milne isn't drawing conclusions based on the facts, he's selecting (and interpreting) facts based on his conclusions. As usual.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 23, 1999.


Milne doesn't know jackshit about the Japanese.

No surprise though, Milne doesn't know what he claims to know about much of anything.

If he were such a genius, he'd be getting paid for it, instead of boasting about how we pay his way via the tax laws.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), June 23, 1999.


The Oriental calendar (calendars? I think there is more than one.) does not match the Western calendar in any detail. This will certainly have an impact - though in precisely what way I cannot say.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 23, 1999.

Chicken Little,

Your argument was based on the nationality of the man who had originally posted the message on this forum, without having addressed the points that the man had made.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Maybe Japanese programmers and management have been quietly dealing with the problem as part of normal systems maintenance and development over a number of years. Maybe they didn't design the problem in the first place, after all there are ways of dealing with holding the century that could easily have been adopted at least from the 70s (maybe not in the very early days. Maybe they have more foresight in their thinking.

-- dick of the dale (rdale@coynet.com), June 23, 1999.


Chicken Little,

Grab a clue, bud. I said...

...I don't think the idea that Japanese do things differently is a reliable indicator that all mission-critical systems there will be compliant.

And you used the word "Doomsday"; I didn't. I just hope the U.S. isn't dependent on a steady supply of Japanese parts.

Paul,

I've asked a friend of mine who was born in Japan and who used to be a translator for Toyota about the calendar system in Japan. He told me banks in Japan used the Emperor system until computers started being used, but that banks have used the Gregorian calendar since then.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.


Chicken Little,

It's kind of interesting the way you compare Japanese and Western culture, and then say "Japanese culture cannot be compared to American, or Canadian, or English, or French, or any other Western culture. In food, business, everyday life, or anything else."

If there is no comparing these things Japanese with things western then none of us, including yourself, is qualified to speak on this subject.

Of course I believe you are wrong. The Japanese are not, as a generale rule, more efficiient than Westerners. This has been demonstrated by statistics. Whether the Japanes are more efficient at programming, or have less-diifcult problems to correct, I don't know, but I do know that no one on this thread has yet presented any reason fro being optimistic about Japanese preparedness for Y2K.

To say these things does not require some intimate knowlege of Japanese culture ("A Japanese man came to my uncle's house. Wow!"). It only reqires an understanding that when it comes to business and computers, the Japanese and the Westerners might be more similar than you seem to want to believe.

Will the Japanese be prepared for Y2K? I don't have enough knwlege to say. Do you really have such knowlege Chicken Little? Are you willing to share such knowlege with us? Can you do it without using ad-hominem arguments (your definition)?

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), June 23, 1999.


FOR-THE-SAKE-OF=newbies-not-so-educated-lurkers-that are intimidated by-the-experts-& there-argument,s=DUH. what,s the bottom-line=please? i think i,ll go play-with slowly destroying a spider-web. & see how long it takes before the spider hollers=i give-up.

-- al-d. (CATT@ZIANET.COM), June 23, 1999.

Hello Linkmeister! I previously lived in Bangkok, Thailand. The Thai people must have much in common with the Japanese. I also found that they totally avoid "unpleasantness" to an unbelieveable degree. They will say yes when it is really no. It is, as you say, not actually a lie. I wonder if most of Asia is like this?? "Saving face" is an EXTREMELY important thing it appears. The Thai people are warm, wonderful, hospitable people. I enjoyed my time there, but was glad to get back to the USA(where it didn't take all day to make one phone call - normally it was quicker to send a servant w/note by samlar than try to use the phone)...

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), June 23, 1999.

* * * 19990623 Wednesday

Paul and Linkmeister,

Indigenous ( Emperor, Israeli, et al ) calendar/s is/are immaterial: Dates ( i.e., displayed, etc. ) are computed using system level utilities.

HOWEVER, the operating systems ( OS ) and software internals _are_ US- based. Ergo, if the underlying internals use 2-digit year representations, any systems are at "Y2K"-risk!

It's that simple.

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), June 23, 1999.


Why break a sweat over arguing the impact of y2k in Japan? Their banking system is collapsing RIGHT NOW. Three or four of their largest banks have are already FAILED. y2k is simply the icing on the cake.

If you can't see this picture, you need to adjust your set.

-- a (a@a.a), June 23, 1999.


Chicken Little, you eminently reasonable fellow, here is my response to your post.

you said "You know absolutely NOTHING about Japan, Japanese business, Japanese thinking, Japanese culture. Therefore you shouldn't post anything about anything that deals with Japan. Yet you do. "

It's true that I don't know much about Japan, but my post was an attempt, (albeit unspectacular), to see what we could infer from the limited scrap of information before us. Seeing as this is the perspective that most of us are coming from on many y2k issues, (due to y2k effecting nearly everything, and us humans not knowing everything), it still seems to me a worthwhile way to go about it from time to time.

you said "The numbers that 'Now for the Rest' posts are absolutely, 100%, CORRECT. Been there, checked that. Done the math, got the T-shirt. The Japanese government is spending about 25 - 26% per mission-critical system that the US gov't is spending. Incontrovertible FACT. But that's pretty much as expected, if you understand Japan. They get more done, per dollar/yen."

I never disputed the accuracy of "Now for the Rest's" number, I was merely trying to flesh out exactly what those numbers indicate. It seemed disturbing to me that they would spend 25% as much per M.C. system as the U.S. gov would. You explain this fact by saying that these oh-so difficult to understand Japanese "get more done per dollar/yen." Well, excuse me while I roflmao and merrily bwahahaha. The Japanese are SO efficient that they get FOUR TIMES as much work done per yen than the rest of us???? I sincerely doubt it. If they got 1.5 times as much work done per yen than the rest then they would be pretty amazing. You argument is silly. You should have just argued from your supposed expertise in all things Japanese and maybe said that Japanese Government's M.C. systems are only 1/4 the size/complexity of U.S. systems because dot dot dot. Then you might have mischievously landed us back into the Flintian I-don't-know land, where we often belong on y2k issues. Instead, you left us with a really dense argument. Oh, and by the way, if you think there are ever any incontrovertible facts in a government press release then you really are daft. Note, I didn't say I was disputing the numbers, just their interpretation.

you said "The fact that you use the term "Jap-language" shows that you are not only out of touch with the subject matter, but you are a racist as well." I happen to think that abbreviations are not racist, and are entirely no big deal. If someone worthy of respect on this forum accused me of such a thing then I would bother to defend myself, and could do so convincingly.

you said "I don't understand what your argument is here, to tell the truth. And I understand the Japanese probably better than anyone who has ever posted to this forum, PNG included."

Did you even read this bit? ...

"The basic argument is that Japan's 1/42 y2k budget allocation would be ok if it were conceivable that Japan's government is 1/42 as computerised as U'.S.' . Which sounds implausible to me.

My argument here, which wasn't presented very well but which should have been obvious enough to most higher simians, was that it seemed very unlikely, to an admittedly naieve outsider, that the Japanese government would be mission-critical computerised to only 1/40th the extent of which the U.S. gov is mission-critical computerised. And that only if this seemingly unlikely proposition were true would the Japanese y2k remediation budget be sufficient, (assuming that the U.S. y2k budget were sufficient. Because if the US gov budget is inadequate then the Japanese budget would also be inadequate if it involved the same $-to-MCsystems-ratio.)

you said "You feel "very confident in guessing that Japanese big business took advantage of computerisation not much later than U.S. or Europe. Maybe earlier."???? GUESS AGAIN." Well at least I explained up front that it was a guess. I'm happy to hear your explanation of why my guess was wrong, or wrong to a degree. You've actually managed to contribute something to the forum CL! Be careful, it may become a habit.

you said "The original premise of this thread is correct. I'd bet money that anything else that will be added (besides what I've said) will be 100% ignorant know-nothing BS."

I tentatively agree that the original premise (sic) of this thread is correct, i.e. the Japanese Government has 1/10th as many mission critical systems as U.S.gov, but is only spending 1/40th the $ to fix them. I just don't see how this is good news. The Japanese may be more efficient than you or me, but they ain't Steve Austin.



-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 23, 1999.


>>! I just can't stand "half stories" and what Milne posted was a "half story" >>-- Now For The Rest Of The Story (filling@inthe.blanks), June 23, 1999

Well . . . I have actually looked at the web site mentioned by Rest Of The Story, and I have seen the rest of the story (just below the section that Rest Of The Story cut and pasted). According to the web site, Japan has

1508

A-level systems, as follows: Central ministries and agencies, and public 511 systems . . . National medical institutions (Computer systems) 997 systems.

Therefore, the Japanese government has, not "8.98% as many mission critical systems as the USA", but approximately 25% as many mission critical systems as the USA. Therefore Japan seems to be spending $108,090 per mission critical system (including medical)

$108,090 w $1,133,603.24 = 0.09535098512632 or 9.5%.

Therefore, Rest of the Story, it seems that the Land of the Rising Sun is spending just under 10% per critical system compared with the United States.

Questions?

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), June 24, 1999.


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