You got untill Labor Day or not long after, to aquire the essentials. A lot of important items will be very difficult to obtain after that date. Did any of you stand in long lines waiting to purchase Beanie Babies? Wanna figure the odds of getting a couple of extra propane tanks in November?...Never mind, I'll do the math for you...lets see...start with a zero and...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 22, 1999

Answers

BiGG, actually you've got only till the first y2k-negative event triggers off, be it GPS rollover, 9-9-99, or any other unexpected event within the y2k spectrum, such as the 4 million gallons of sh*t spilled over at Van Nuys, japanese selling off their 300 billion of US T-Bills, or... whatever

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), June 22, 1999.

George,

You are absolutely right! The former is my personal opinion...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 22, 1999.

I suspect that you are overestimating both the attentiveness and the gullibility of the public. The Van Nuys spill hasn't sparked anything, because those things happen all the time. Refineries blow up, blackouts happen, oil tankers run aground, and the like. Each time, a few pay attention and cluck about it, but everyone else goes on with their daily life -- and so do the clucks.

Even toward the end of the year, people will be concerned with Christmas shopping, and maybe planning for the blowout millenium party. Only a small minority will probably take more than token measures, among those who haven't already.

Only once people start being affected personally, will they decide to pay any attention. Yes, people have heard of y2k, and a few have a vague idea what it is. But what it *means*, they'll wait to find out, and deal with it reactively later if necessary.

Given people's acclimation to the bumpy and imperfect world we live in, there's a huge intertia out there. It'll take huge events to overcome it, not just vague worries. We all have worries.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 22, 1999.

And then there's that business of the military being put on "ready for callout" from Sept 1 thru March 31, 2000. Why did they select Sept 1 as a start of readiness date? Anyone care to speculate about it? Flint, what are the possible reasons, as you see them?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 22, 1999.

Gadz - I think Flint may be right here. That's how people react to things. You can warn them till you're blue in the face, but not until it hits them home and personal will they take notice and do something. That's just humanity, as pathetic as it is. But this thime it will be to late for many

Bob P

-- Bob P (rpilc99206@aol.com), June 22, 1999.

Actually, I disagree with Flint here. I think that AFTER most companies miss the "September 30th" deadline, the news media will FINALLY start beating the issue to death, COMPLETE WITH "COUNTDOWN" til...

When this happens, I would expect the public to panic within a couple of weeks.

Get your preps done THIS SUMMER....

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 22, 1999.

Flint is dead on. Dennis, the media won't play the y2k card until late December when it can no longer be ignored. Any interim failures will be discounted just as the Calif. refinery problems a month or so ago. There's far too much to be lost by the big players to hype y2k as a disaster. Avoiding panic will be the order of the day. Short of an accidental/intentional nuclear launch or a widespread terrorist NBC attack, the public will snooze through New Year's Evil.

-- brett45 (brett45@bigfoot.com), June 22, 1999.

Odd, I agree with both Flint and Dennis, who don't agree with each other. I'd say it all depends on how the media plays this. If they're still lulling people in December with Christmas specials, there will be no massive move to preparation.

If something unrelated like the GPS rollover or solar flares cause personal inconvenience, then TSHTF early.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 22, 1999.

I buy and sell for a living...the original statement is my assessment of the markets for some basic/critical items, that's all...my message is to speed up your agenda...get the essential items you still need, as long lines in existing markets and the "secondary market" can be *vicious* places to play...or maybe it would be good training for some...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 22, 1999.

If you want to make some money, be prepared to sell in December....

Twenty some Kids came over for dinner tonite....

They will be buying some extra DINTY MORRE in December,,,

Why buy now, there is plenty of stuff... There will always be plenty of stuff, I can always buy it at the store in December

Well you all know the drill, prepare for a hurricane....A three day storm....That Keeps Going and Going and Going...

Keep the faith

Helium

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), June 22, 1999.

Articles like the sewage spill act to wake up people every day. They become concerned, they think about Y2K in a way that they did not before. But, generally, THEY DON'T DO ANYTHING. However, the seed is now planted.

When the seed will sprout is the question. Certainly, if (as Flint says) people have a PERSONAL experience with a Y2K problem, that would do the trick (e.g., some snag from the GPS rollover in August, perhaps similiar to the Galaxy IV glitch of last year). Or, if the press starts pumping Y2K up (as Gary North thinks they will from Day 100 onwards).

Nobody knows. But its better to be two months too early than one day late, once the Y2K awareness seed sprouts. (And be the heck out of everyones way....)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 22, 1999.

By the way, do you guys really think things will be "business as usual" until the end of December? Not a chance!The government and law enforcement have been preparing for heavy cyber/national/international terrisiom from radical, political and religious groups. There are many other things that could overwhelm the system long before Christmas. My money says the markets pick up within two weeks of Labor Day.

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 22, 1999.

right now I'd say there's about even money on nothing happening before at least Christmas - the American public is generally just too short sighted to deal with issues much more than a week or two in advance. Barring a major crisis that can be directly traced to y2k related activity and/or a major terrorist attack (not likely pre- rollover) I expect most folks will continue to trundle along same as always...*sigh*

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), June 23, 1999.

BiGG:

Of Generators and Ice Cream Cones

This morning at the local Post Office I was talking to Jennifer, a window clerk, regarding the USPS Countdown Clock on the wall. I asked her if she took Y2K seriously. She said she did and then began telling me she had seen images of peoples' stocked houses. I asked her if this was on television. She replied she had seen these pictures from the magazines they sort.

Without naming Paul Milne, I told Jennifer there was a man who relocated with his family out in the boonies of Virginia. Jennifer remarked she wouldn't go to that extreme, but she would buy a generator. I asked her if she had thought about gas, an inverter and a battery tank. She drew a blank, then said I must be prepared. I told her I was not. (I have no generator.) Then I departed.

Jennifer is aware, but she doesn't realize the necessity of getting the generator NOW. She should also be planning on storing fuel and setting up her system. Jennifer thinks she has ample time. Six months?

This afternoon I talked to the president of the company where I work and told him about the coming Depression. Yesterday he had given me a bank bulletin which stated among so many wonderfully crafted words that this bank was "ready". I asked him where the word "compliant" was. The absence of open Y2K compliance did not bother him. He is confident there will be no big problems.

Then he bet me an ice cream cone that Y2K would be nothing bad. AN ICE CREAM CONE? That's how seriously he takes Y2K. Then I bet him a thousand dollars, and he was amused. He makes more money than Bill Clinton, so what's a thousand dollars? Should I bet him for AN ICE CREAM CONE?

He has many stock investments, but no clue of the global disasters approaching. This is depressing.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 23, 1999.

Unfortunately, I also think Flint is correct in his assessment here.

At this point, it would take something pretty catastrophic to get anything more than a passing glance.

An insignifigant small percentage of us have studied the mountains of evidence and have drawn a full range of conclusions. But the vast majority have other, more important business to attend to.

I suspect "Not Again!" (TTF) could probably best tell you just how much people are willing to ignore if they choose to do so. And they often do. History is a good teacher. Too bad we don't seem to listen.

For what it's worth, my position remains basically unchanged. Having spent hundreds of hours reading on the topic and a lifetime programming computers, I feel most of us have little to lose and much to gain by making prudent preparations. But other than an occassional message on this forum, I have stopped trying to get people to focus on the topic and make their own decisions. It's time to focus my attention on my own family's situation. I've already done everything I felt was prudent for those around me.

Another week, and it will be July - far too late to make anything other than superficial preparations at this point. Sure, you could still prepare for the infamous '3-day snowstorm' metaphor but I believe most people who would do even that much already have.

The remainder of the population has willfully chosen to ignore this issue and we shall soon see if that was indeed the best path to take. I sincerely hope it was because the alternative is not very pretty.

But a sewage spill here, a chemical plant explosion there, a few unnecessary deaths, -- these are not the things that will motivate large numbers of people.

That's what 'local level'-speak is all about. It's an anesthesia for global outrage. Sure, something very bad happened over there but it didn't affect you did it? See, what did I tell you? Local-level effects only. Just like I said it would be. Did I lie? No, of course not. Now go back to sleep and quit your silly worrying.

Just as well, I suppose. The time for motivating large numbers of people has come and gone. It's only what you do now that will make a difference on your own 'local level'.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), June 23, 1999.

The Rock by Harry Chapin Description: Originally found on the album Portrait Gallery. The rock is gonna fall on us, he woke with a start And he ran to his mother, the fear dark in his heart And he told her of the vision that he was sure he'd seen She said: "Go back to sleep son, you're having a bad dream!" Silly child-- Everybody knows the rock leans over the town Everybody knows that it won't tumble to the ground Remember Chicken Little said the sky was falling down Well nothing ever came of that, the world still whirls around "The rock is gonna fall on us," he stood and told the class The professor put his chalk down and peered out through his glasses But he went on and said; "I've seen it, high up on the hill If it doesn't fall this year then very soon it will!" Crazy boy-- Everybody knows the rock leans over the town Everybody knows that it won't tumble to the ground We've more important studies than your fantasies and fears You know that rock's been perched up there for a hundred thousand years "The rock is gonna fall on us." He told the magistrates "I believe that we can stop it but the time is getting late You see I've done all the research my plans are all complete." He was showing them contingencies when they showed him to the street Just a madman-- Everybody knows the rock leans over the town Everybody knows that it won't tumble to the ground Everybody knows of those who say the end is near Everybody knows that life goes on as usual round here He went up on the mountain beside the giant stone They knew he was insane so they left him alone He'd given up enlisting help for there was no one else He spent his days devising ways to stop the rock himself One night while he was working building braces on the ledge The ground began to rumble the rock trembled on the edge "The rock is gonna fall on us! Run or you'll all be crushed!" And indeed the rock was moving, crumbling all to dust He ran under it with one last hope that he could add a prop And as he disappeared the rock came to a stop The people ran into the street but by then all was still The rock seemed where it always was or where it always will be When someone asked where he had gone they said: "Oh he was daft. Who cares about that crazy fool." And then they'd start to laugh But high up on the mountain When the wind is hitting it If you're watching very closely The rock slips a little bit

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), June 23, 1999.

You're right, Arnie. DGI stubbornness has set in big time.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 23, 1999.

Each negative event, each negative story, each negative experience causes a few more people to get it. A few more teeter into the "GI" camp. A few more will be prepared. Not enough, but a few more! All we can do is to try to ensure that our family, friends, and neighbors are among those few...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 23, 1999.

Arnie,

Nice to see your head pop up from beneath the weeds, if even for a moment.

BTW the Lantern generators you need are (or were a bit ago) available from Coleman. Just check their 800 number.

regards to Mrs. Rimmer.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), June 23, 1999.

A snip from a Wired article about the UN/Freedom Forum summit:

http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/20337.html

[added bold emphasis mine]

[snip]

But speakers feared public panic if they said too much about the little-understood Y2K bug or suggested year 2000 contingency planning. And they said they had to explain the problem before expected Y2K-apocalypse movies and media reports defined the issue and "bugged out" their populations.

"The perception of the problem is as important as the solution itself," Susan Page, who manages the Australian government's year 2000 effort, said at the summit, which was also sponsored by the Freedom Forum, a US media think tank.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 23, 1999.

I have said all along that most people cannot imagine any kind of bad scenario. Its not in their memory banks...not even in the form of having read a book such as *Grapes of Wrath*. Soooo, I think that when they see these y2k movies, then you will see some action. That is if the movies make any sense. They need to see and FEEL EMOTIONALLY what a bad scenario can do, especially understand the domino effect. Right now its like trying to talk about space to my 98 year old father. He doesn't get it and he is never going to get it. He has no concept of computers and how they work and what they have done for "progress". He doesn't understand why one can't just pull out a pad and pencil from the desk drawer and continue with business as usual. Well...the general public can't comprehend it either. So maybe the movies will show the way. However, knowing H'wood, they could be so ridiculous as to bring on the opposite reaction. Hopefully they will have some realism. But they better get them out soon or all they will cause is panic and damn little preparation.

A very worried Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), June 23, 1999.

IMHO, it will take a financial impact to move most Americans to act. When oil prices start to rise from production concerns and force gas prices up, people will begin to listen. The oil producers are currently agreeing to a voluntary cut in production, which has moved oil and gas prices upward recently. This was reported on Headline News last night.

-- ariZONEa (screwed@the_pump.com), June 23, 1999.

I'm not in any way an economic expert, but the stock market is very much overvalued by traditional ways of measure and the bull market is long in the tooth. October is often the time for stock market pull backs. If we have a stock market crash in late September or early October, along with more serious Y2K news, this could well be the trigger needed to push public awareness over the edge.

-- Alexi (Alexi@not-in-the-dark.com), June 23, 1999.

There is a huge difference FOR ME between predicting the future and hedging the future. I believe it is likely there will be no panic until November or later. I also believe it is ESSENTIAL that I finish all family preps by the end of July (at least the 95% of preps without which I will feel needlessly exposed).

A side effect of this will be peace of mind during the next six months. Actually, with 90% of our preps done by Jan 1, 1999, peace of mind has already been a wonderful result.

This thread proposed an answer to the question, "do you think you have six months?" When it comes to my family, the answer is, "no".

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 23, 1999.

On October 1, the new fiscal year starts for our government. What do you think will happen, if all the government employees suddenly realize that their paycheck didn't get deposited to their accounts? Employees would include people in DC and all of the military. Do you think that could cause just a little bit of panic? LOL

-- carly bee (carlyblue@aol.com), June 23, 1999.

What I am beginning to wonder is if some people will EVER get it? I can just see post-Y2k sceptics finding a way to blaim the Chinese or the poor or aliens from space for whatever strangeness is going on. Those of you who are expecting the biggest "Doh!" in history may be in for a dissapointment. I would not be a bit surprised if most of the sheeple went to their graves (or pyres) as clueless as they ever were.

IMO it is useless to speculate when Y2k is gonna start. It most obviously already has. When are people going to panic? Any second now. Be thankful now for every day you AREN'T standing in long lines or worrying about getting the last gallon of propane. You could wake up ANY DAY and find the world changed. That's the twisted beauty of Y2k. It can and will surpirise us all - even the most prepared.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), June 23, 1999.

R --

You summarize perfectly what we have been trying to say to each other on this forum for the past 6 months:

"IMO it is useless to speculate when Y2k is gonna start. It most obviously already has. When are people going to panic? Any second now. Be thankful now for every day you AREN'T standing in long lines or worrying about getting the last gallon of propane. You could wake up ANY DAY and find the world changed. That's the twisted beauty of Y2k. It can and will surpirise us all - even the most prepared. "

It's the answer to the pollies, the bull marketers, the blitzkriegers:

The computers work just fine, until they don't.

The market goes up 23% a year, until it falls 67%.

The tanks roll through country after country, until the fuel supplies are cut off (or winter freezes the steppes.)

"It seemed like a good idea, at the time."

Everything is always clear the morning after. Optimism is the super- glue (or soma) sticking our minds to inertia right up till the day it all changes. The history books may tell you later which Japanese banker woke up one morning and read a wire service report and started the avalanche. You'll be just as SOL whether or not you ever know what started it.

Thank you R for thinking clearly and sharing it with us.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), June 23, 1999.

man-oh-man, you folks are awesome.how sad this [so-important] message has been scuttled. are there any predictions of the death-rates in u.s well i guess the bottom line is,only the good LORD can turn this mess around.it,s been a long time-a- comin.CHARLOTTES WEB? HOW MUCH CAN THE SPIDER continually REPAIR IT,S WEB, BEFORE IT starves to death?

-- al-d. (CATT@ZIANET.COM), June 24, 1999.