I, along with many other people, have asked various people how long it is necessary to prepare for, in terms of food, water, etc, and generally am told that it is necessary that everyone prepares for as long a period of time as they feel it will be necessary, and/or to stockpile as much food, etc. as they can afford to buy.

This is good advice, to a point. But lets say that a person can afford to buy fifty years worth of food. I assume that this is excessive, but what IS a reasonable time period?

Perhaps, if no one can give us a definitive answer, some folks can tell us how long a period of time THEY PERSONALLY have prepared for, or plan to prepare for. Maybe we can all get a feel for what is a reasonable time. If you wanted to add what level of problem you think y2k is going to be (1-10), so much the better.

Thanks to anyone who is willing to share this information with us.

-- malcolm drake (jumpoff@echoweb.net), June 22, 1999

Answers

Malcolm.....

This forum is chock full of folks that can give you some great feedback on your question of 'how much'. The best advise that I have heard is to prepare for what you feel is the worst case scenario with the intent of using the consumables (food, etc.) in your normal lifestyle. If Y2k turns out to be a high number, the well stocked will be in a great position to barter.

-- Barry (barryjaynes@usenvitech.com), June 22, 1999.

malcom, just a 2 month old newbie here. No computer expertise or real inside info. I became a gi after reading everything i could (pro and con) and doing a lot of serious soul searching. I had to face the question by imagining what it would be like to have my family members starve to death in front of my eyes. With all the question marks out there, how could anyone not prepare as best they could for as long as they could? Well, we could trust our government to protect and feed us. After all the uncovered lies and coverups i believe you would have to be a 100th degree FOOL to count on that. I have many people that will be turning to me when they're stomachs are empty, and i sure hope i won't let them down. PREPARE FOR THE WORST case scenerio you can dream up. If nothing happens, GREAT! You cost yourself some time and a few dollars. At least you won't have to think about how big a failure you are as you hold your dying wife/child/parent/etc. STEVE in NW MO.

-- steve (newgi@nw mo.com), June 22, 1999.

Malcom,

Concerning the level of problems with y2k. I'll start by saying that I don't understand how anyone can stand steadfast on either extreme of y2k. I mean, either way is possible, but I would never try to convince anyone it was going to be one extreme or the other. I just don't want to be responsible for the results. The only thing that I know for sure is that y2k will be somewhere between a 1 & a 10. Anything is possible as far as I'm concerned. I don't know how it will turn out, but I have a wife and son who will be looking to me if things should get bad. I don't plan on letting them down.

So, how do I know how long to prepare for? I don't, but if you just want to know how long I'm preparing for, the answer is 1 1/2 years at the moment. It will probably grow to 2 years worth of food by the end of the year. If things are bad for longer than that, my supplies will allow me to be self-sufficient for many, many years afterwards. I'm not saying that it will be necessary to have this much, just that I feel comfortable with this amount.

-- Ready & Waiting (not@home.com1), June 22, 1999.

I have stored six months of food for six adults and six children. I have enough beans and rice to last over a year. I have a swimming pool and creek for water, and a fireplace/insert for heat and cooking. I have room for a large garden, but I do not like to garden. I have a sewing business on the side so I am hoping to barter if things get really bad. In all I think 3 months of scarce supplies and a bad depression to follow in the next few years.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), June 22, 1999.

Full year's growing season. Do you have enough to last until the crop comes in? Can you compensate for first crop lost to pests, weather, thieves, etc.? Attempt to cover that base. This will be more difficult than a trip to Pizza Hut. It's *JUNE 1999*. Get started ASAP.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 22, 1999.

Two years for my family. I'm hoping it's two days, but the consequences of guessing too low may be quite serious. By having two year's worth of food gives me time to learn to grow crops. I already have the seed in nitrogen storage.

My personal guess is that this will be a 4, but it could easily cascade into a 10 with some bad luck, some acts of terrorism, or the solar flare coincidence. Why take chances? Food is cheap.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 22, 1999.

Alas! I seem to be on the low end. About 3 months so far (2-3 years worth of wood coming next week though, and have hand pump for well, wood stove).

A lot of people CAN'T afford to totally prepare (a year or 2) no matter how "cheap" food is. I can't even afford to prepare as much as I have.

Guess I'm just saying that 'a year or 2' is out of reach for 3/4 ths of those preparing. People on this forum tend to be (IMHO) on the richer side of society. On the other hand, I live in the middle of farm country and have a lot of dairy/beef/apple/chicken farming Mennonite friends and neighbors.

So a lot depends on your financial AND locational situation.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 22, 1999.

Actually John, many of us aren't rich at all. We just didn't ignore the problem for as long as some folks have. Your statement falls in line with my observation that in *JUNE 1999*, anybody stumbling across this problem has little hope of preparing sufficiently. This is precisely why *I* would enjoy seeing the government hanging from trees, twisting in the wind. Sorry.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 22, 1999.

How long to prepare and how to prepare for something less than Mad Max? I hope that together we can arrive at some interesting answers at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000z68

Come on over to this thread and send me off with a thread to remember.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 22, 1999.

Malcolm,

First, sorry for goin' off on you, call it, a bad, long hard day.

I'm goin' for a 10, not becauce I think it will go that way, but because I can.

My closesest nieghbors will never know if I'm preped, unless TSHTF, then they will be glad I was. Got Rice and Beans for 50 for 3 Mo. Greenhouse Matt. for 3000 sq. ft. We can grow a garden for 9 mos. without a greenhouse. Got seeds?

Have Grav. water and have a " spread " of ages in the area to supply " knowlege " and " kids " to do the work ( been there, done that ), Grew up that way.

I know what a " Thunder Mug " is, and can " run " an Outhouse.

Got Fish? Elk, Deer?

-- CT (ct@no.yr), June 22, 1999.

I've prepared for 6 months of 'hard' times and unlimited years of 'semi-hard' times. This was easy to do after I asked myself 2 questions:

What are the things I use on a day to day basis?

and

If things get really bad, how do I want to live my life?

Using the answer to the first question I stocked up enough to last for 6 months. Based on the answer to the second question, I bought the rest of the stuff I think I'll need. After all, I believe if it goes past 4 months, I will need to redefine my life, my job, my priorities, anyway.

DJ

-- DJ (reality@check.com), June 22, 1999.

Start with the basics. This will give you a sense of "peace of mind".

Amazingly, the basics are very cheap. One pound of rice (dry) will supply 1634 calories - sufficient carbs for one day/person. At 19 cents/lb., you're looking at only $69 per person/year.

Of course, man doth not live by rice alone. But, get started NOW. There's a learning curve to all of this. And, I can't guarantee that 19 cent price quote for too long, you know.

I wrote an article a while back, entitled "Y2K: Nine Possible Futures / Evaluating Preparedness Options". It's at:

figure.8m.com/future-y2k.htm

-- Zach Anderson (z@figure.8m.com), June 22, 1999.

Jon,

My family is not on the richer side of society by any means. We live from paycheck to paycheck and would most likely be considered lower class.

We started preparing about a year ago. It's probably a little late in the game to do what we did but it may help you some if I share it with you.

When my wife and I decided to make the commitment to prepare, we agreed that anytime we went to the store (for ANYTHING), we would purchase at least one thing to put in our y2k stash, more if we could. Other than that we would buy what extras we could afford to add to it. When we first started, we concentrated on the basics, which was mainly rice and beans. I know that they'll get old after a bit but it will keep you alive for quite a while. One thing that we purchased alot of were rice mixes. Walmart sells small packages of flavored rice mixes for 78 cents (Lipton's) and 68 cents (Greater Value). There are over 10 different flavors such as broccoli & cheese, southwest chicken, oriental, etc. We also purchased lots of rice and bean mixes such as Mahatma's Red Beans & Rice ($1.18 and very good). All together we have accumulated about 400 packages of these rice mixes. We also purchased large bags of plain ol' beans and rice (25 lbs. of either for under $8.00). After we got a pretty good start on the beans and rice we started purchasing smaller bags of a different kinds of beans for variety. We also started buying the small cans of canned meat (like chunk chicken, chunk ham) to add to the rice mixes and beans for the occasional variety. This covered the basic food supply. We gradually added things like sugar, spices, flour mix. We don't plan on making bread so we purchased the 20 lb. bags of tortilla mix at walmart for under $10.00 (just add water).

Water was a big concern of ours and I found our solution in the Katadyn Combi filter. It purifies about 14,000 gallons of water per filter. It was a big investment at $180.00 but it pretty much solved the water problem. We will be using rain water and other natural resources for most of our water. I also obtained several large plastic barrels from the local water dept. (for free) for water storage.

I live in Texas so I'm not too worried about cold weather but do have propane for heat when it gets too cold.

We hooked up with some "like minded" people in our area who have about 400 acres surrounded by national forest on 3 sides. There is lots of game available. There's also a pretty good size private lake for fishing. I built a small cabin there as a bugout spot in case things get pretty bad. It will be a last resort kind of thing though.

I offer this to you in hopes that it may help you prepare to a comfortable level. It can get pretty tough at times and some sacrifices may have to be made but there is still some time left. Best wishes & good luck.

-- Ready & Waiting (not@home.com1), June 22, 1999.

Thanks to all of you. There are some very well though out plans here. Lately, I'm thinking I might outta get substantially larger supply of food set in. Some of your posts help me feel less paranoid in doing so.

CT, apology accepted. I appreciate it. I miss my gravity water; good for you. There are not that many locations where a person is able to do that.

Will continue, what's the matter? You didn't attack me in your normal fashion.

-- Malcolm Drake (jumpoff@echoweb.net), June 22, 1999.

Zach, I enjoyed reading your article. I do have a couple of points I don't agree with:

"Of course, the serious Y2K-er will need to assure his family of flowing drinking water. It is not that expensive to drill a private well, but your least costly option is to find someone with an old well and attach a $50 hand pump to it. This is exactly what I did."

It may or may not be expensive to drill a water well. The generally cost at least $1000, and it is more common where I live to spend around $5000, or even more. And the hand pump you bought sounds like it is probably a "pitcher" pump"? A pitcher pump will generally pump water very well, and with little work, but they "suck" water, and therefore will only work if the water level in the well is about twenty feet below the pump or less. I have a deep well hand pump, which I fortunately don't need at my present site. It cost about $500 twenty four years ago. It will lift water from a deep well (I don't know the limit, but mine was 100' static level) (Check with Dempster Manufacturing, Beatrice, Nebraska.)

The deep well pump operates just fine, but the deeper the water level, the more work it is to pump a given volume of water. Mine took fifty hard strokes to bring the water to the surface, then fifty more for each five galloons of water. I certainly wouldn't want to have to pump enough water to do a garden in this fashion! Yet to go wind pump only works if there's reliable wind, and solar pumps can cost a bloody fortune. "Heat is another consideration. Wood stoves are expensive these days due to EPA regulations. The Red Cross advises not to use them indoors anyway."

Can this be true? Where else would you use a wood stove? (I assume you are referring to a wood HEATER)

Although here in Oregon, it is illegal to sell, or advertise to sell, a non certified wood heater, lots of people still sell them as "flowerposts"! If I didn't already have a wonderful ceretified wood heater, and was only interested in buying a stove for emergencies, I would buy one of these. They generally sell for fifty to a hundred bucks, compared to around a grand for certified, depending on the size of space, the climate, etc.

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), June 22, 1999.

Thanks malcolm. I only attack when needed. This was a far more reasonable request to answer to. Keep thinking about the sewer aspect, you'll do fine.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 22, 1999.

We have enough food until next year's harvest, even if we take in numerous friends. (Luckily there are plenty of wild edibles around here that are ready as early as March, and plenty of deer too.) Seeds for 2 years to give us time to practice getting seeds for our crops. Hand pump next to the barnyard and a well-bucket we can drop down the well inside our house.

I fully expect these preps to be way more than we need. But they didn't cost much at all; 1990 was the last year (until this one) that I earned enough to pay taxes and I had no trouble affording these preps. If food prices next year are anywhere near what I expect then we'll be glad for all we have on hand.

If you really want to prep for a near-worst scenario then you just need to store 1.5 years worth of food. Then also store enough seeds for 2 years. This works even for those who have no land to farm. There will be plenty of vacant land by the spring of 2001 if things turn ugly.

Of course, if things get that ugly then many who have food and water enough won't last that long either. But having the food and water certainly would help your chances.

Hard to imagine that scenario, so hard to believe it likely. That isn't an argument against the possiblity - not trying to start that tired old debate - it's just an observation. I am expecting a severe global depression, but not a collapse of the current social structure. Guess that is a "7". That is what my preps are primarily aimed at, with some "insurance" type preps for anything worse.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 22, 1999.

i am silently preparing myself i dont tell too many people because they look at you like you are a FOOL also if there is chaos people may try to take away from us to feed their families so im keeping my preps secretive. im also buying kerosene i have 4 55 gallon drums i dont want to get cold plus u can warm up canned goods on the heater. im also storing up water can anyone tell me how to keep it fresh? i hope this will all blow over they are building alot of expenive homes here in middle TN $200,000 + how will they pay these outlandish mortgages if chaos erupts can anyone say martial law???

-- Tony Lineberry (tlinebee@aol.com), June 22, 1999.

Will continue:

Thanks for the reponse, it made me think. It seems to me now that maybe you are right, most people from now on will have a hard time preparing regardless of financial capability. I guess I made that comment about "rich" people because I'm freaking out a little over trying to finish --- started 4 months ago. It takes time to work things through in your mind and then proceed to actually preparing. There are probably few (not 'no-one') that could grasp the situation, become mentally prepared, and move on to adequate preparartion in the time left. So its getting very late for adequate preparation starting now, and 2 or 3 months from now it'll probably be hard to accomplish anything without being in a "panic mode".

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 22, 1999.

As of last week I've pretty much finished all the prep's I can handle. Now I just have to load them all up and take them to the "new" homestead. I've just sold my company, paid off the mortgage on the new place and will start moving in 2 weeks. Only thing left to do is get the solar stuff installed and the fuel tanks topped off.

I've setup my prep's to handle 8 folks for a year. Everything is pretty much usefull in everyday living so I hope to be set for a while. If I have the time I'm going to look into a micro-hydro setup for the new place. I've got two creeks so I should be able to rig something up. I plan on mostly getting to know my new neighbors, who are ranchers for the most part. I've met most of them over the last 6 months, good folks, honest and hardworking. I made sure I wasn't going to be looked at as the "new kid" for long.

I am a computer geek by training and by choice. I have spent 25 years in this game and it's time to bail out for a while. I'm going to work at odd jobs, i.e. truck driver for the hay cutters, etc. Won't pay much but I'll be back in shape, using my body instead of my mind for a change. Corporate politics, political correctness, plain old a** kissing has gotten old.

Got me an old Dodge diesel truck to drive, a dirt bike to run around on and dug out my work gloves and boots. In essensence I'm going to "work" for a living for a while. Did it to get through college and beyond so it's nothing new. Just wish I was 25 again!! :)

I am prepared to ride out anything from a 1 to a 10, or at least I hope so. I have no family to worry about so I'll take care of those around me that might need help. I'm more worried about how people are going to react than I am about the computer side of things. Computers cause problems everyday. Only this time they will all cause a problem at the same time. I'm honestly hopeing for a bump in the road. I'm too old to play out the Postman or Mad Max. If everything stays "up" then we will get our mythical bump in the road. But the worlds reaction could cause an economic mess to materialize.

I think a recession is not out of the question. A depression is a much bigger leap to make. Either one will have consequences that many people will be ill equiped to deal with. I would like to see my country continue to be free. But yet I do fear the "leaders" that we have chosen to represent us. It seems to have devolved into a control issue for many of them. How that will play out in an economic situation remains to be seen.

I'm guessing at a minimum of 3 months of various interuptions, confusion, power glitches, etc. If, and this is a BIG IF, it doesn't get worse than that then I suspect we will continue on. My crystal ball doesn't work any better than anyone elses. So I'll eat my supplies, give to the food bank, keep my electric bill down, etc. if we are all proven to be too pessimistic.

just my .02 worth...

Freelancer

-- Freelancer (mercenary2000@yahoo.com), June 22, 1999.

Jon, the fact that you are aware of the need to prepare and some of the possible scenerios you could be faced with...has you way ahead of the pack. Be diligent, stay on purpose, avoid the daily routine distractions as much as possible. Do you have vacation time or sick leave available? Use it. This is a time consuming process. Use your time and money wisely. I was paniced last August, expecting people to get it and create the wave...any day now, wrong. Make your mind up and cover as many bases as possible. There IS time to do SOMETHING. There ISN'T time to 'ponder'. Go for it!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 22, 1999.

Freelancer

Thoughtful post. Thanks. It really is heartening to hear that other people are making plans too. If it all goes to hell, we'll, or at least some of us, come out of it to make progress again.

Godspeed. You sound like a good guy.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 22, 1999.

I have been prepping for about 10 months. I took care of the basics, planned how to use renewable sources (ie; water, growing food), bought all necessary items to support these goals. Then I found I looked at items in the store differently. By this I mean, if I were a panicked person what would I go for? I made sure I had about a years worth (psychological I think, so I wouldn't have those feelings to a great extent). So what has happened to this point is, I have a year or more supply of some things, but 6 months of others that I felt I could replace within that period of time. Just a thought or at least my wierd thought process. If I can keep a psychological balance with the world going haywire I felt it was worth it, I am the preparer for the entire family and that is a HEAVY burden as I am sure many others know.

-- Sammie Davis (sammie0@hotmail.com), June 22, 1999.

I am preparing for 6 months to a year...but expecting that I may have friends and family to care for as well... In addition, I am planting garden and short fuse fruit trees (bananas and papayas) for additional food which will come on line at or shortly after rollover. The chickens will be good for eggs for a couple of years.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 23, 1999.

Good post, Freelancer,

Are you knowledgable on hydropower? If not, drop me a line and I will be happy to give you a few physical rules which limit the amount of power you can generate depending on head and flow rate. From this you can get an idea if it's worth doing it or not. Generally, however, hydro is about the best form of alternative power available, if your conditions are right (other than basic passive solar space and water heating)

The more head available, the cheaper the installation will be.

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), June 23, 1999.

I think it will be a 6. I'm prepared for about 2 weeks.

-- Julie (Flyer@Primenet.com), June 23, 1999.

I think that until the 2nd post-1/1/2000 harvest starts is a minimum. (I see Y2K as a 9.5+.) That is July or later in 2001, so I figure on 19 months. I also figure that extra of items that give lots of "bang for the buck" are wise, e.g., wheat, vitamin pills, and H2O treatment stuff. See my site for more of my thoughts if you want; look at "Food" and "An Introduction". www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), June 23, 1999.

I 'got it' in January of this year, the first time I saw anything negative about the prospects of enough companies completing their remediations. I've been working on Y2K pretty much continuously since then, under the handicap of a family that just doesn't 'get it,' and a fairly limited amount of storage space. I've spent a gob of money, but almost everything I got is stuff I can rationalize as otherwise useful, if only in preparedness for other disasters.

I've tried to prepare for a 10, in that I'm choosing solutions that are sustainable. For example, I'm assuming fuel will be stolen or used up quickly, therefore I'm stocking up on apparently worthless cardboard boxes and aluminum foil for building a new solar cooker each time mine gets stolen. With the exception of toilets, I figure I'm at about 14 months for my family of three. I'm not planning on stopping until my buying seems to be preventing others from preparing.

I would go by the advice seen on many preparedness boards & sites, to start small, and complete across the board in each of the needed areas, then working on being ready for a longer period, then longer, and so forth. But don't wait to get something done before moving on to something else. Work on everything at once. Set up a system to keep track of what you plan to do, to organize your thoughts, and to document your progress. Give high priority to those things that are most likely to get scarce first.

I differ a bit with the advice to prepare for "your best guess" as to how long you think you need to. With the possible exception of those who think there's a 100% probability of a level 10 (Mad Max) scenario, we all have a distribution of probabilities for each of the levels. So, although I may put myself at a level 7, because I think there's less than a 50% chance that things will get worse than that, I'm preparing for a level 10 disaster, since I think there's a greater than 1% chance of things getting that bad.

Now... if I could just convince myself that my eight-year-old weren't 100% likely to find and use a stockpiled gun...

-- Dancr (minddancr@aol.com), June 24, 1999.

Dancr, about the guns, please check out www.triggerlock.com

They have trigger locks that I doubt your son could break. They are made by Master Lock - not the cheap garbage that some gun shops try to sell you. They even have ones with motion detectors and loud alarms so you will know if he even touches the gun.

Also, some experts say that the main reason children play with guns is curiosity, so if you show him the gun, explain how it works, and let him hold it, unloaded of course, he will be less likely to try to get at it than if it is a mysterious secret.

-- (y2kbiker@worldnet.att.net), June 24, 1999.