Subject:	That Was Then, This Is Now
Date:	1999/06/16
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

Just to give you a peek at why koskinen is SO FAR over his head, why he is SO INEPt......This is what he said awhile back, just at the time he took the reins...   "In February, the Office of Management and Budget estimated that federal agencies will spend $4.7 billion from 1996 through 2000 on the year 2000 computer snafu, which may cause information systems failures throughout the world at the turn of the century."   "In an interview with reporters Wednesday, John Koskinen, recently appointed as President Clinton's special adviser on the year 2000 problem, said that estimate will be revised as agencies continue to work on the problem, but "I think it's very unlikely that it will double."   "I think it will continue to incrementally increase," Koskinen said, "as people discover there are new things they run into. Those increases may be 20 or 30 percent over time--and that's not to say that's a small amount of money--but if you have to add another billion or two to [the $4.7 billion estimate], that's not a constraint."   That was February of 1998.   This is from today.....From Congressman Horn...     "Only 199 days remain until we greet the new millennium, with its expectations and enormous challenges. The 24 largest agencies and Cabinet departments in the executive branch of the federal government are spending nearly $9 billion to mitigate the millenniums most immediate and potentially devastating challenge ..."   ===============   Gee, $9 BILLION pretty much sounds like DOUBLING to me. Just another example of know nothing bureaucrats like koskinen mouthing off when they are way over their heads.   The original budget back in Jan of 1997 was for a measly $1 billion. And that was for the TOTALITY of ALL +/- 73,000 Federal systems NOT just a pathetic 8% of them which are now designated Mission Critical. Do you realize that that is missing the actual amount by an order of magnitude. This is how wildly off the mark they were and still are.   These were supposed to be well informed professionals. Any grade school child could have done the math.   Now they are up at about $9 BBBBILLLION for only 6400 out of those 73,000 systems. It won't stop there. In Dec of 1997 I claimed that it would EASILY take more than 10 Billion just for the Mission critical systems alone.   Who was closer? Koskinen or me? Koskinen marginally allowed for an increase of up to thirty percent and pooh-poohed a doubling of the ammount. To make matters even worse for him, the number of mission critical systems DECLINED from that time at over 9000 down to a mere 6400 today, making his estimates that much the worse.   Koskinen is an idiot. An inept idiot. More importantly, a liar. A bald- faced Liar.   His opinion was that it 'was very unlikely that it would double'.   It is also his opinion that it is 'very unlikely' that we will experience catastrophic consequences.   I say we will.   Now, let's see who is closer to the truth for a second time.   Oh, but you'll be dead by then, because you refused to prepare and you'll never know will you?  I rather guess that you will, it will be the last thing that passes through your tiny little mind.     -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Share what you know. Learn what you don't.

-- a (a@a.a), June 16, 1999

Answers

So where is the link to show that Milne said it would double? That would make him right for once. If you claim everyone is wrong all the time, that doesn't give you a very high score when you tally up every time they messed up as a win for your side.

Milne is like a kid who marks everything true on a true or false quiz, and thinks 50% is a passing grade. NOT!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 16, 1999.

Wellll...I'LL STILL BE SUCKIN'AIR!! Who else among us??? Decker's still lookin' for a cave...any cave in the Rocky Mountain region. Flint has Flipped, Poole is drowning in his Cess, Y2K Pro-folactic can't find his shrink, Anita's primping for the prom, cherri's trying to find Hamasaki's site, who'd I leave out? Go read Dog Gone's thread people and get your heads out of you're armpits! This is *JUNE 1999*. Wake up...get tough...get going. Are we Americans or not? Are we in this together, or alone? Put your hats on!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

SORRY...I left out Deputy Davis, DUH HUH.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

Will, "get tough" What the hell does that mean???!!! Are you some kind of rah, rah, cheerleader idiot????

-- Give me a 10 (wackos@home.forever), June 16, 1999.

Besides the "mis-step" on the Fed Y2K Budget - what other mistakes or goofs has Koskinen made during his tenure? More importantly does anyone know what his qualifications or credentials are (need to check out the appropriate Fed web page) and how do they compare to Mr. Milne's? What's Milne's track record on predictions? Perhaps he has lied but why label him as inept or an idiot. I am not really suprised by the "numbers" - worked on a Fed Sponsored Project funded under auspices of SDI (read "Star Wars") and it arrived late and over budget (2.5 x original estimates and 1 year delayed). Likewise, have worked in the private sector for 8 years and have had similar experiences...

-- wholst (w_holst@hotmail.com), June 16, 1999.

OK. We stand corrected. He has been right. Once.

One out of 100's. Not the best batting average in the world but apparently good enough for some to make his word gospel. Wouldn't want him at the plate for me when it counted.

And I don't even care to see the link where he claims he WAS right once. I'll just go ahead and believe. But just this once.......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 16, 1999.

I could care less about Milne. The numbers don't lie. The government does.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 16, 1999.

give me a 10, honey, if you haven't figured THAT out by now, don't blame me!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

Anyone have a link to the Feb. Kosky quote?

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 16, 1999.

Koskinin made a prediction based on beliefs. If a prediction doesn't pan out, then that doesn't make him a liar in and of itself.

He did say it could change. Yeah, he'd be right if he could foresee the future, but despite the rants of some members that post here, no one can predict the future. Too bad he missed so miserably.

Just because someone missed a budget estimate based on nearly 70,000 different computer systems (which is pretty damned huge), it's not the same as estimating a repair bill for your car. Of course the margin of error is larger...you've a larger population for variances.

Anyone care to speculate Milne's credibility if we held him to the same standards?

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 16, 1999.

Typical confused thinking. This may or may not prove something about Koskinen, but it says nothing about Milne. If this is all you've got, it just proves the point that Milne knows nothing.

-- cd (artful@dodger.com), June 16, 1999.

It may not be the same as estimating the repair bill on your car, but if you actually extrapolate the 9 billion being spent on 8 percent, you come up with a total cost of 112 trillion for 100 percent, which is 24 times the Koskinen estimate of 4.7 billion.

Re Milne's qualifications, he has an exceedly agile mind, as well as the ability to separate statement of facts from statements gauged to spark emotion (aka spin).

aa - thanks for posting his stuff - I don't have time to go through c.s.y2k anymore.

-- at work (abcdef@aol.com), June 16, 1999.

Oh my, I hear alot of babbling in quivering voices going on here. Afraid to look at the truth...can only whine about the messenger, tsk, tsk, tsk. What do they have in store for us next....stuttering?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

What?! You mean 112 billion, not trillion. A trillion is like a thousand billion, you know.

-- Yep (yougotth@right.com), June 16, 1999.

I think Will wants the job of forum idiot. The messenger has always stated incoherent rantings. This is just one of many.

I vote for a marrying will. Don't you think, they'd make a lovely couple?

-- Will Fool (What@moron.stupidperson), June 16, 1999.

Link

Halfway down the thread is the following:

The ORIGINAL estimate as portrayed by Sally Katzen, who was the head OMB honcho at the time, was ONE BILLION dollars. The present figure is more than SEVEN times the REAL original estimate. And the Present estimate is still off by Billions and Billions.

Milne is correct; here's the "proof".

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 16, 1999.

Thank you Will Fool, for that coherent post. There still don't seem to be many who wish to discuss the fact that our government is lying. That it appears they are rumped and have no intention of warning the masses. Got Vaseline?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

Hey...a trillion here, a trillion there... pretty soon you're talking Y2K.

-- a (a@a.a), June 16, 1999.

--a ---- keep up the good postings. I love to read Milne's comments. I come here basicly for a good laugh, with all the doomers and polly stuff. I am a doomer, and I enjoy the laugh I get from the battles over the most stupid things. Keeps a smile on my face all day long. At another level I keep smiling too. Only about 10% of us can visualize, people can't seem to connect the dots. Its clear to me the picture these dots are giving. Most of the time the Pollys are giving most of the dots, poor people, but they just keep making it plainer to us GI'S. Didn't mean to type all of that,just wanted to say thanks "a". When I get on here I always scroll down to the "Milne" stuff first. Once a doomer always a doomer.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 16, 1999.

"Once a doomer, always a Doomer"....unless the happy-face crowd can prove otherwise....just isn't happening, is it? It's sad really...watching someone stammer, stutter, drool and throw spit- balls. Some folks just can't take the truth with a little grace and dignity...have they no pride at all? Have they no SPINE either? Apparently not.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

Once a doomer always a doomer! Yet you claim to connect the dots. Connect this: Y u a e a i i t!

-- see (the@big.picture), June 16, 1999.

Will continue ---- You hit it right on the head for me with your "happy-face crowd". LOL. My crowd can hardly wait for the market to go down a little so they can buy more. Just had a friend call, he had just bought another 1000 shares of AOL, oh well. Everybody wants to buy this building or that house, great price, you'll make 50 to 100 thousand just turning it over. LOL. Never make it a point to "ever" say anything about Y2K to these people. There's going to be a lot of unhappy millionaires in a few short months. A 1000 shares of AOL---LOL

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), June 16, 1999.

Can anybody provide a link to Kosky's Feb. '98 quote? I can't seem to find one.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 16, 1999.

AOL - Closed up 11-3/4 for the day.

-- Polyester (Pollyester@dacron.net), June 16, 1999.

Exactly...polyester. That's why we're all LOL. What goes up, WILL come down....further than the sag in your pants.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 16, 1999.

See if you can discern this through the spit and sputtering...

www-wheeee....rre whhwwh where iiiiiiiiiiiiis t-t-t-t-t the UUUUUUUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRLLLLL for K_K_K_K_K_K_K_Koskinen.

"Billions and billions" Very precise.

Deano may take Milne at his word, but I'd like to see that posting, along with the live URL for the archive for his prediction.

Hey, you guys listen to Rush Limbaugh?

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 16, 1999.

"Kevin, Way back in december of 1997 I stated that the amount of money necessary would easily exceed 30 billion. An that was way back in the days before notions of triage even surfaced. We were still talking about ALL systems. And I was even way off at that. I have read some of my old posts saying that 50 billion would not be enough. "

We'll see.

-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), June 16, 1999.

Please ignore the pollys. They will be rollover roadkill.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 16, 1999.

thinkIcan:

You wrote about connecting the dots. If these dots were lights, you'd have "a thousand points of light", a brighter comprehension of what is about to hit America, and an urgent need to stockpile some more stuff.

An active brain generates the electricity required to keep the lights on. Don't be fooled by those diagnosed with the classic Pollyanna Vegetative State (PVS). There's nobody home.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 16, 1999.

a:

Your Milne postings are like a cyberarena. Ringmaster Paul makes some announcements before the crowd, and then various posters jump into the center arena. They scuffle, flip-flop, tumble, punch, spit and curse. The audience cheers and laughs and boos and hisses, but there's no blood spilled. Fun for all!

Peanuts! Get yer red hot peanuts here!

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 16, 1999.

Will Continue - JUST HOW IS ANYONE SUPPOSED TO PROVE A NEGATIVE? If you MUST throw up straw men, at LEAST assume we have the brains to recognize the ones that SOCRATES discredited.

I expect that kind of stuff over on North's forums, but this place USED to be somewhat more reasonable.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 17, 1999.

WHAT GALL!!!

Paul Davis assists and abets in the "destruction" of TB2000, then complains about the quality of posts!!!

a: bookmark this.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 17, 1999.

Paul, you're trying to reason with a retard. Will has absolutely no brain capacity whatsoever.

-- Polly (but@no.cracker), June 17, 1999.

Lisa: what really amuses me is that they keep saying they are going to leave us alone to self-destruct, then they pop in the next day to add more fuel to the fire. They are just as addicted to this mess as we are, and probably subconsiously just as concerned.

-- a (a@a.a), June 17, 1999.

a, this place reminds me of that Warner Bros cartoon with Sam the Sheepdog and -- is it Wile E. Coyote? that clock in at the sheep pastures every morning "'morning, Sam" - "morning, (forget who) and then commence to war for the rest of the day until clockout time.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), June 17, 1999.

Lisa - calm down - your veins are showing.

Aids and abets in the destruction of this forum. Now that is a pretty serious complaint - and just how have I done that? If I was a troll, or posted curses after every post I did not like, THAT might damage the forum. (Gee - that sounds like the more juvenile doomers) Pointing out logical errors and incorrect information is what I do (and crack a few jokes). How can pointing out bad information harm a forum related to discussion of Y2K and its possible harm to you? Would you rather have only threads that assume the worst? Do you really think want to assume TEOTWAWKI with not a single moderating voice? Most of the moderates are techs - do you think this forum will be improved by the majority of the tech voices going silent?

Here is a hint - click on the link on the top of this page that says LUSENET. Follow the instructions to start your own discussion group named something like 'Y2K is the end of the world and we are prepping'. You will be moderator of that forum, and can delete any posts by 'pollys'. Have fun!

Now I don't get along with Milne - that is no secret. But he started the mud slinging, not me. He has been mad at me for at least 5 months - since I called him a wuss for claiming you need a hideout for a recession. But he cranked out junk in my direction for quite a while before that!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 17, 1999.

I have yet to read any Timebomb2000 Troll or csy2k Troll that could hold a candle to Paul Milne's ability to discuss y2k. Folks like Davis, Flint, Poole etc can't even come close.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 17, 1999.

Excuse me sir, I'm bucking and jerking along on this little four- banger (don't have the sleek big-8 that you, Hardliner, BigDog, Andy, et al run on)(but at leasting I'm moving, eh?), but your associates on Biffy and de Bunki have sworn as their loyal duty to capsize this forum, and you graciously arranged them splendid new accommodations when their lease at their previous roach motel wasn't renewed.

Hey! By being here, I'm foaming at the mouth to waste a bunch of DGIs circa the rollover, right? Guilty by association?

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), June 17, 1999.

JAW: I don't doubt that the K-man made the referenced quote. I simply asked for the URL. Your conclusion was wrong--I am most decidedly not a Polly. I simply can't find his statement anywhere. Neither has anyone else, apparently.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 17, 1999.

I should add: I am most decidedly not a "doomer", either.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 17, 1999.