The Southern Oscillation Index is a way of gaging El Nino/La Nina cycles. The SOI indicates that La Nina is in, and has been since about a year ago. This suggests that on average we may expect cooler temperatures than last year through the rollover. Shifts from El Nino to La Nina, and vice versa, seem to lead some of their climatic effects by 8-9 months.

From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/index.html

"The latest forecast models are fairly consistent in predicting cold episode conditions to continue into early 2000, with some forecasts implying a strengthening of cold episode conditions during the latter part of 1999."

Got wood?

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 14, 1999

Answers

Jerry - I just finished reading http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/Detail.CFM?Links__ID=5024 about the Mexican drought. What is the prognastication for rainfall for North America in 1/00 onwards?

P.S. So much for a mild winter eh?

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), June 15, 1999.

Ken,

From the cursory reading that I have done so far, it seems to me that this coming Winter will be at least colder than last, and perhaps colder than "average". We shall see.

It does seem that there is more than enough drought to go around. I found the following at the same site at the above. It does include some comments about some areas beyond the Mid-Atlantic region. I do not know how well the precipitation forecasts track, so don't throw your umbrella away, yet. :-)

Jerry

Worsening Drought in the Mid-Atlantic Region as of June 9, 1999

(snip)

For farmers in the Maryland and northern Virginia region, this makes the third consecutive year of drought, though the current drought comes abnormally early in the growing season.

Besides southern Maryland, other areas of the country experiencing extreme drought according to the Palmer Index are central Georgia and north-central Florida. The Georgia-Florida area has experienced persistently below-normal precipitation since late January. Very heavy rain during early June removed drought concerns over most of southern Florida.

In other parts of the country, lingering drought after an abnormally dry winter continues over parts of the Southwest, especially southwestern Texas and much of Arizona, increasing wildfire risk.

Another area of some concern, where near-drought conditions prevail, includes eastern parts of Washington and Oregon, a rather surprising development given the record winter rain and snowfalls in western parts of both states. Near the center of the country, across the Great Plains, wet and stormy weather, with numerous severe outbreaks of thunderstorms, has persisted throughout the spring and is continuing in the near future. As a result, year-to-date precipitation has been 50% above normal in many locales from north Texas to North Dakota.

(snip)

What is the Outlook?

(snip)

The summer seasonal forecast for the local region is for near-normal rainfall. Although this will provide some relief for agriculture, the long-term deficits will not be erased unless the region experiences a tropical storm or hurricane.

The NWS seasonal hurricane outlook is for an enhanced likelihood of above-normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes. However, the science does not permit a statement as to whether this region will be affected.

The extended outlook for the fall and winter is for a continuation of La Nina impacts resulting in below-normal rainfall in the Southeast and Southwest.

(snip)

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 15, 1999.