http://www.FreeRepublic.com/forum/a376451f03941.htm

Topic: Business/Economy

Y2K Early - Chaos Possible In 90 Days

In My Email 6/13/99 withheld

Panic surrounding the Y2K problem could make the situation worse by far than the actual malady. As this email attests, the fallout could begin in less than 90 days.

This is written by one of the more conservative people on the y2k Homestead list. He builds computers for large business and gets them all set up and rolling. If you think Y2K effects are going to be nil - think again, the fireworks could easily begin shortly - keep your powder dry...

Think you have 6 months to prepare for the upcoming big Year 2000 rollover? Think again. Its more like ninety days.

The word on the street is that no one will show up at the last quarterly debt auction of 99 or the first one of 2000. The big investors (buyers of short-term debt) say they are going to stay out of the auctions and see how the Y2K rollover affects things. (Remember these are very fiscally conservative people) Short-term debt is auctioned off every three months by the likes of the credit card companies and other financial institutions. This is what keeps them running.

Ever wonder why the interest rates on plastic are so darned high? Its because the credit card folks rent their short-term debt to big investors. These investors are promised a big return on their three-month investment. This is where the credit card folks get the money to pay the merchants who accept the card in payment for goods and services.

Credit cards are a *very* big part of our modern economy, if no one buys their debt they just cant operate. Merchants wont get paid so most will likely stop accepting plastic, almost over night.

This alone will put many companies out of business. Car rental agencies accept *only* plastic. You cant rent a car today even with a wheelbarrow full of cash. How many ISPs like AOL are almost exclusively paid by automatic charges to their customers plastic? [Meaning that within the last quarter of this year, many Internet users could possibly find it very difficult to locate an ISP still in business - except for the phone companies that have been angling to control the business.]

Think there wont be bank runs by October? When we cant use our plastic, wont we assume that our checkbook isnt far behind? Cash will be king! (What little there is of it, that is) The lucky ones will get 10% of their cash out before the banks doors are slammed closed in their faces. Once the government imposes cash withdrawal limits, which it will, our confidence in government, banking, insurance, and nearly all other institutions will disappear faster than our cash. By Halloween the cities will be aflame.

Many millions are planing to prepare themselves and their families, but have said in polls that they are waiting till the last month or two, then they will stock up. Well folks the early arrival of Y2K is going to come as a big shock to them. They are going to discover that you cant even trust the calendar any more.

Think those companies and government agencies that claim they will be Y2K compliant by September will make it? Unlikely! When the economy goes down the tubes so will most Y2K remediation plans. Computer failures in January will be nothing more than salt in an already gaping wound.

This is shaping up to be by far, the biggest event ever to befall mankind. Be done with all your Y2K preps within the next 90 days. You are going to need them!

Of course, this is only my opinion, and I could be wrong. But I dont think so.

The old addage, "An ounce of prevention is worth more than a pound of cure" is more than applicable here. If there could be any truth in what this man is saying, some simple common sense preparations are in order - kind of like taking a raincoat outdoors if you see lots of dark clouds rolling over. I have made NO prepartations - but I think I just started.

If it turns out that little or nothing transpires, then nothing of any consequence will transpire from those preparations - except the loss of a little interest versus the possible loss of much more - if you are moving stock or some investments. I will move my assests now, rather than be caught in a year-long financial chaos. What about you, what are you doing now?

-- LOOOK.... (Watch@listen.com), June 13, 1999

Answers

LOOOK:

I'm not assuming we'll have even 90 days before unfolding events make America's economy fall apart. I make my plans week by week, paycheck by paycheck. I'm hoping economic stability will hold for several more months, but there are too many fuses being lit across this world.

People who tell me they'll take action later in the year are in for a big surprise soon.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 13, 1999.

Could someone else try and get a link. I cannot get through.

If the quarterly debt auction for the last quarter is a no-show situation, then people better take heed. You are right Watcher, the time for action may soon be past. For many it will be too late.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), June 13, 1999.

GPS rollover problems Aug.22 may also cause significant impact amongst skeptics. This could possibly trigger off Y2K prematurely (i.e. bank runs, etc.)

The proverbial 9-9-99 will also complicate things IT a bit further (how much we don't know), compounded by the Jo Ann effect (started on Jan 1, 1999, slowly, silently and surely) which will continue to pile up even more after July 1, thus burdening IT systems in the US and elsewhere in the world.

Closer still, the NRC must decide the mandatory shutdown of all nuclear power utilities that can't prove their y2k-compliant status before August. This will be the mother of all power grid decisions.

How resilient international IT and people's reactions can be nobody really knows. But we are surely stressing both to their yield point allright. The instant something noticeable fails, of whatever nature, we should be prepared for some fancy fireworks. Programmers and testers will run for the hills and it will be game over for y2k in a matter of days.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), June 13, 1999.

LOOOK,

Don't wait, try this

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 13, 1999.

I screwed that up. Was supposed to be the Shorting The Market thread of a few weeks ago. Good stuff there. Sorry, check the archives.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 13, 1999.

Mike,

Here it is as a hot link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a376451f03941.htm

The gentleman's message there was soon answered by a large number of "optimists".

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 13, 1999.

take away the 1 from 1999 and turn it around on it's head! is their any significance in the answer.

-- Graham hyslop (Bob@ghoward-oxley.demon.co.uk), June 14, 1999.

"This is where the credit card folks get the money to pay the merchants who accept the card in payment for goods and services."

Hey numb nuts! The wonderful credit card folks charge merchants who accept cards. What gave you the idea they give merchants money?

Corri

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), June 14, 1999.

Corri,

>credit card folks charge merchants who accept cards. What gave you the idea they give merchants money?

Suppose I make a credit purchase for $100. All I give the merchant is a piece of paper with my signature, not $100 in currency or negotiable instrument.

The merchant passes that paper about the $100 purchase, with my credit card number and signature, to the credit card company. Now suppose the credit card company charges the merchant a 3% fee on each purchase. Then the credit card company pays the merchant $97. _That_'s where they give money to the merchant -- they just don't give a full 100% of the purchase amount.

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), June 24, 1999.