The Bombing Resumes in Kososvo

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http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/

2225 GMT, 990613 - According to a source outside of the NATO air base at Aviano, NATO aircraft sortied on Sunday, June 13, between 6:45 pm and 8:30 pm local time. This included 2 E-6 Prowlers, 6 F-16s, 2 F-18s, loaded with full ordinance packs. Three A-10s also took off. The planes returned without ordinance. One F-15 appeared to have been damaged and was approached by fire and ambulance immediately upon landing. The observer reported extremely heavy security, in excess of any seen during the war itself. We cannot confirm or deny this report but are passing it on as it is sufficiently detailed to be credible and will provide NATO spokesmen an opportunity to confirm or deny the report. It seems to indicate that combat sorties have resumed or that intense training is going on during a period one would expect to be devoted to R&R.

-- Kiss (your@good.by), June 13, 1999

Answers

http://www.tass.ru/english/template3.htm?id=67234

Russians deny Frenchmen entry to Pristina airport, adds.

LONDON, June 13 (Itar-Tass) - The Russian peacemakers did not allow French servicemen to enter territory of the Pristina airport on Sunday.

According to the eye-witnesses, the Russians denied entry to the airport to 15 trucks carrying French servicemen at 10:30, GMT, (14:30, Moscow time).

A French officer told a Russian that they had come to make a fuel storage in accordance with the NATO maps and asked where they should go, the eye-witnesses said. "You must turn back and go away. There is only the Russian contingent at the airport. You can go anywhere but the airport premises," the eye-witnesses cited the Russian as replying. Asked whether NATO representatives were at the airport, the Russian said "the Britons had come with Gen. Jackson but they left."

The French troopers had nothing to do but to turn back.

yer/

16:52, 13 june 1999

-- See you (in@next.life), June 13, 1999.


Kosov(o?) Kosov (a?) Somewhere in the Balkans...

-- (html@guy.com), June 13, 1999.

[ For Educational Purposes Only ]

6/13/99 -- 5:39 PM

Despite shouting, British blocked by Russians from key Kosovo

PRISTINA, Yugoslavia (AP) - A top British military official tried angry words and body language, but failed Sunday to persuade Russian soldiers to allow British troops to enter the airport in the capital of Kosovo.

Control of the Pristina airport has become an unexpectedly tense issue since early Saturday, when Russian troops moved into the city ahead of British peacekeepers. The Russians settled at the airport, which was supposed be the headquarters for the international peacekeeping operation.

Russia had been expected to take part in the Kosovo peacekeeping operation, but its role and commander have been the subject of delicate discussion.

On Sunday, a Russian armored personnel carrier blocked the road to the airport as a British contingent of 17 vehicles and about 50 soldiers arrived Sunday.

British Brigadier Adrian Freer, the commander of the units that led the way into Kosovo early Saturday, launched into a tirade at the Russians.

``What the hell are you doing here? Get on to your commanders and get out of here now,'' Freer shouted. Then he pulled down the collar of his uniform shirt to reveal Russian Airborne Division T-shirt.

``I spoke in English and I'm not sure if he fully understood me, but my body language was pretty clear,'' Freer was quoted as saying by pool reports. He said he had worn the T-shirt especially to show Russian soldiers that he wanted to be regarded as a friend rather than as a competitor.

The Russians' actions have raised concerns that they plan to create a de-facto Serbian sector in Kosovo. The province's minority ethnic Serbs regard Russians as more sympathetic to their concerns than the NATO-dominated peacekeeping force.

The Russian soldiers at the airport roadblock made life far easier for Serbs than for the British. Serb vehicles were let through with no restriction, many of the trucks carrying household goods and furniture, driven by Serb soldiers who laughed and jeered as they passed the British.

On Sunday afternoon, the British gave up on the day's attempts to get to the airport. President Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin talked by telephone about Russia's role in Kosovo and NATO supreme European commander Gen. Wesley Clark attempted to play down the airport disagreement.

Meanwhile, British Brigadier Robert Baxter was looking over an abandoned factory near the edge of the city. ``I'm trying to find a home for headquarters,'' he said.
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If they just listened to the Forum ... didn't w'all say QUAGMIRE!??

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 13, 1999.


ITAR TASS

-- (html@guy.com), June 13, 1999.

http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19990613/world/0929314324-0000004188. html

Sunday June 13, 11:51 PM

FOCUS-India, Pakistan say want peace, ready for war

By Simon Cameron-Moore

NEW DELHI, June 13 - A day after a crisis meeting in New Delhi failed to break the deadlock over Kashmir, India and Pakistan both warned they were prepared for war if the conflict in the disputed Himalayan region worsened.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, addressing front line troops in Kargil on Sunday, said India would not relent until hundreds of guerrillas occupying strategic heights inside Indian territory were beaten back into Pakistan.

"We want peace but we are also keeping ourselves ready for war. We can go to any extent to restore peace."

Artillery shells hit a village one or two km (a mile) away from the helipad where Vajapayee landed on Sunday, at the start of a two day visit to Kashmir.

Later in the day, Vajpayee told a news conference in Srinagar that India will take all steps to ensure that all the infiltrators were thrown out of Kashmir.

"We shall not rest till the job is complete. We will not tolerate any intrusion across this line of control and will evict any intruder who violates the line. War has been imposed on us, we are trying to end it," Vajpayee said.

In nearby mountains, Indian troops continued high altitude battles, backed by air support, to try to sweep the guerrillas from their vantage points.

Indian military briefers said the fighting was fiercest in the Batalik and Dras sectors.

Late on Sunday, India described as "baseless" a Pakistani military accusation that the Indian army was using chemical shells in artillery attacks across the line of control.

"We have not used any chemical weapon or shell," an Indian army spokesman said. "The report from Pakistan is baseless."

Vajpayee said Pakistan had betrayed India, after signing the Lahore Declaration in February aimed at improving relations, and had annexed Indian territory, violating the Line of Control.

The line divides the two armies in Kashmir, and was drawn at the Simla Agreement in 1972.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz argued that the frontier was not clearly delineated in snowy mountainous areas, and should be clearly marked on the ground.

But India dismissed the proposal as a cover-up for a land grab by Pakistani backed infiltrators.

"Our effort is to avoid war but we are determined to get back our territory and we see that the line of control is honoured by the neighbour," Vajpayee said.

Pakistan's APP news agency reported that Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif telephoned Vajpayee on Sunday and reiterated Islamabad's desire to defuse the tension over Kashmir.

The arch rivals have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir since independence in 1947 and the current fighting is the most serious since their last full-scale war in 1971.

-- The End (of.the.world@we.knowIt), June 13, 1999.



PAK ASSAINATION ATTEMPT FAILS....

Pak. shells fall on venue of Vajpayee's public meeting

Kargil, June 13 (UNI): Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had a narrow escape today when the office of the Divisional Commissioner in Baro area of Kargil, where he was originally scheduled to address the people, was destroyed in Pakistani shelling. The timing of the Pakistani shelling coincided with Mr Vajpayee's address at the DC's office. On the advice of security agencies and Intelligence, the venue of Mr Vajpayee's address was shifted at the last moment to the helipad, which was within a km radius of the DC office. During his one-hour stay at the helipad, five shells fell at the DC's office. Official sources said Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah wanted Mr Vajpayee to make a first-hand assessment of the damage to Kargil town by the Pakistani attacks during the past several days. Mr Vajpayee had initially accepted the proposal, but it had to be later dropped under constant pressure from security forces and Intelligence agencies. The first shell burst in Baro as soon as Mr Vajpayee's helicopter landed. However, undeterred by the shelling, the Prime Minister first addressed the jawans and then the local residents. All through his one-hour address, Pakistani shelling continued.

-- ------- (War@to.follow), June 13, 1999.


This is good news. We've been wanting to get rid of those commie bastards for a long time. Now they are going to provoke NATO? Hah! That's all we need is an excuse to throw the first punch. Hopefully Yeltsin the drunk will continue to be stupid and NATO will lose patience with them and solve all of their problems. I'll miss the vodka, but at least we won't have to keep loaning them money!

-- @ (@@@.@), June 13, 1999.

Sorry Bud...in a case like this, nobody "wins". Everybody could wind up loosers.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 13, 1999.

German Troops Under Fire in Kosovo

By DENIS D. GRAY Associated Press Writer

PRIZREN, Yugoslavia (AP) -- German troops came under heavy sniper fire Sunday in this southern Kosovo city and killed at least one armed man and wounded another in the firefight. A German soldier suffered an arm wound.

The German peacekeepers had been greeted earlier by cheering ethnic Albanians when they entered Prizren, Kosovo's second-largest city, in Germany's first major military deployment on foreign soil since World War II.

As they approached the center of the city on a main street along the Bistrica River, sniper fire crackled from a hill and houses. German soldiers took cover and began shooting back.

The Germans' heavy fire blasted a yellow Lada car with two occupants. One was slumped dead over the steering wheel and the other was badly wounded and screaming for help before he was evacuated by German medics. A woman resident was also reported wounded by snipers.

German soldiers said that the men shot first and that grenades and semi-automatic weapons were found in the car.

As reporters hid behind vehicles, German soldiers took up defensive positions below the hill from which the sniper fire was coming.

``They're all over the place,'' one soldier said. ``They're drunks with guns and grenades.''

Ethnic Albanian teen-agers scrambled about, helping the Germans locate sniper positions. One boy told the soldiers he had seen Serb snipers hiding in a Roman Catholic Church.

Even before the firefight, arriving German soldiers got a taste of Prizren's ethnic tensions. Although initially basking in the cheers of a flower-bearing crowd, they quickly had to break up an angry confrontation between ethnic Albanians and departing Serb militiamen.

The residents threw stones at some Serb militia vehicles, kicked at them and cursed. Serbs aimed their weapons at the Albanians, but did not shoot.

``Although we may not have everything under control at present, we have enough presence in town to believe there will be a safe withdrawal'' of Serbs, said Brig. Gen. Fritz von Korff, commander of the German-Dutch brigade in Prizren.

He said the number of troops under his command would double to about 2,400 on Monday. But he warned that Prizren was still ``a dangerous place.''

About 1,000 German soldiers with tanks and other armored vehicles were expected to be in the city 55 miles southwest of the provincial capital, Pristina, by nightfall. The German forces in and around Prizren eventually are to number 8,500 -- postwar Germany's largest foreign military deployment.

Keeping the lid on ethnic tensions and creating safe conditions for refugees to return could prove a difficult task for the Germans.

The Prizren area holds some of the Serbian Orthodox Church's most cherished sites and some people fear ethnic Albanians might vandalize the buildings in retaliation for abuses by Serbs.

Church leaders called Sunday for protection of Serb clergy remaining in Prizren, the independent Beta news agency reported. It said a Serb clergyman was attacked in Ljubizda, a village near Prizren.

As they entered Kosovo from Albania early in the day, the German units passed through a heavily vandalized Yugoslav customs post where looters had taken nearly everything they could carry -- from tables to toilets.

On the 11-mile road from the border to Prizren, almost no residents were seen although the troops passed 200 to 300 Serbian soldiers who were withdrawing, many of them appearing downcast.

============================================ End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 13, 1999.


http://www.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/199906/199906130364.html

West Sea Developing Into A Powder Keg

The West Sea area surrounding five islands off the coast of South Korea is developing into a powder keg Sunday as both North Korea and South Korea have approximately 40 warships deployed in the immediate area. The two sides have been confronting each other near Yeonpyong Island since June 7 and the number of fighting ships that could be confront each other is considerable. Around 420 warships are controlled by the North Korean West Sea Fleet Command based at Nampo, Hwanghae Province, although only one ship exceeds 1500 tons of displacement in size, the 'Najin Class' warship. Najin class ships are equipped with two 48 kilometer range 'styx' ship to ship missile launchers.

North Korea is known to have some eighty submarines and mini submarines, but because of the low depth of the West Sea only locates small sized 'Shark Class' and 'Yugo Class' submarines in the area. Of particular danger are the approximately seventy high speed hovercraft able to carry an entire platoon at a speed of 40 knots.

Opposing this is the ROK Navy second fleet based in Inchon. While far outnumbered, it is superior in comparison. The mainstay of the fleet includes 3500 ton old style destroyers, 2200 ton convoy ships, and 1200-1400 ton patrol ships. Additionally the destroyers are equipped with 'lynx' anti-submarine helicopters armed with air to surface missiles. The convoys and patrol ships are equipped with both 100 kilometer range 'harpoon' and 40 kilometer 'exocet' surface to surface missile launchers.

Also concentrated in the area is considerable land to sea power. North Korea has 76, 100, and 122 mm guns at points 13 to 22 kilometers north of Yeonpyong Island, along with Silkworm missiles that have a range of 95 kilometers. The North also has MIG 17 and MIG 19 jet fighters based at airbases in Onchun and Taetan.

The ROK military has marines positioned on Paengryong and Taechung Islands, with harpoon missile launchers on Yeonpyong and other nearby islands.

(Yu Yong-won, kysu@chosun.com)

-- Bye (bye@birdy.com), June 13, 1999.



And you better read this from the UPI wire at Drudgereport.com

"The surprise move into Pristina comes after Yeltsin pleased his generals by approving a new strategic security doctrine that approved the first use of nuclear weapons against adversaries such as the United States in a military conflict. He also approved the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the field to offset the collapse of Russia's conventional military abilities since the collapse of the Soviet Union. "

I guess Andys posts on Russia in the last few weeks weren't far off.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 13, 1999.


And here is another interesting tidbit:

Analysis: Yeltsin's Kosovo Move

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 13, 1999.


Just relaying what better sources than me are saying...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 13, 1999.

I'm not nearly as religious as I should be. However, I keep hearing a voice in my mind over and over again, "...there will be wars and rumors of wars..."

I have this bad feeling in my gut that this is going to get really, really ugly. This world is in for a whole lot of hurt.

At times, I've tried to be objective but I can't anymore. This administration may well have killed us all.

I heard on CNN that the Serbs are not pulling out as agreed. There are some who want to fight. Mixed up within the ranks I've heard that there are Russians fighting along with them.

There is no logic to any of this. Think "chaos". Think "world out of balance".

Mike ==============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 13, 1999.


The situation in Kosovo re the Russians is terrible. If the Russian troops entered under orders, the Russian government just gave NATO the finger and lied to their face, not good. If the Russian troops entered WITHOUT orders its worse, as we now have a chaotic showdown with no command and control on the part of the Russians. It won't take much of a misstep to set off an armed confrontation. Thanks alot Bill. His legacy may yet be the Third Balkan War.

-- kozak (kozak@formerusaf.guv), June 13, 1999.


Ray, that analysis is more than disturbing. Michael, yes yes yes. What if Andy & Nik & E Coli et al have been right-on-the-dime all along? Maybe we're all worrying about the wrong thing and nobody will be even thinking about Y2K soon ... who knows?

17 days until the 7th month of 1999, unless it's Sept(7)ember. If not then, surely January!

The lunatics are definitely running the asylum. Can't everybody see that now?

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 13, 1999.


This isn't a good time for the Russians to be stubborn and stupid, but their country is such a mess that they are becoming suicidal. While using the Kosovo situation as an opportunity to increase the presence of NATO military in Europe, one of the goals down the line was to eventually take over Russia, and they sense that. Problem is they are in no condition to pick a fight. All NATO has to do is draw the peacekeepers back out, and send the bombers back in. If Russia were smart they would wait until the area stabilizes and NATO becomes preoccupied with some other part of the globe, then make their move. If they want to die, that's exactly what they'll get. Big dumb russkies! I'm gonna miss those Stoli's martinis, extra dry. Somehow I just don't think it will be as good if it isn't made by them.

-- @ (@@@.@), June 13, 1999.

I for one am very glad that even though this is a Y2K forum, people have kept their eyes on world events. Previously my only source of news was CNN. Today when I read the post on Russians turning Nato troops away from the airport, I thought maybe that was a bit hyped. Then 30 minutes later I was watching ABC covering this baffling developement. I do not think it is overstating the matter, to say that the turn that world events are taking is a precurser to war. Thru embassy bombings, to plane crashes, to Desert Storm, I always had a feeling that things would be O.K.. That evil would be punished, and good would prevail. Now the lines are blurred, and nothing seems to make sense, and fear is rational after all. I cannot think of how we will make this alright for our children.

-- Gia (Laureltree7@hotmail.com), June 13, 1999.

Tonight I was watching one of the new shows, they had Ted Koppel reporting from Kosovo on. They reported that Russia tried to send another 1,000 troups to help defend the airport. However, they will not make it because 2 countries (Hungary and Romania?) refused to let them fly over their airspace. This summer might be interesting without Y2k.

Debra

-- Debra (rdebra_@hotmail.com), June 14, 1999.


Debra,

I just finished watching 20/20, which is the Ted Koppel report you referred. Yep, Russia tried to send in another 1000 troops and the US managed to get Hungary and Romania to say no to the fly over. This would have happened at the same time that NATO and the Russians were negotiating a withdrawal of the Russian troops away from the airport. So far, the Russians with backing from some Serbian troops, have said they will NOT leave the airport.

The talk is of a partioning of Kosovo which is exactly what NATO said they did not want and Russia said it would not allow. Cha...the Russians are going to have a very difficult time negotiating with anyone for a while.

I also heard that the G8 is now seriously concerned regarding the actions taken by Russia and may not continue with economic assistance.

No reports on the situation mentioned by Kiss above.

This is getting way too serious. Leska and Ashton, I always hoped that Nik, Andy and E were talking about the extreme part of the scenario. Now I think they might have been optimistic.

Mike ==========================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 14, 1999.


Why does that stupid song by REM keep going through my head tonite??

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), June 14, 1999.

UK: Russia's Row With NATO on Kosovo May Hurt Aid From Drudge...for educational purposes only

LONDON (June 13) XINHUA - Continued wrangling over the role of Russia's troops in Kosovo will not help Russia's chances of winning Western financial aid at an upcoming Group of Eight meeting of major economic powers, British Defense Secretary George Robertson said on Sunday.

"A continued disunity ... on display in Moscow ... would hardly encourage the financial community next week when they are looking to financially help Russia" at the G8 meeting in Cologne, Germany, Robertson told BBC television.

The deadlock between Russian and NATO troops at the Pristina airport entered its second day on Sunday. British troops who arrived there on Saturday found the Russians in control at the airbase where NATO had planned to set up its command headquarters, and the Russians stopped the French from entering the airport on Sunday.

Robertson's remarks appeared to be the first public warning from frustrated NATO leaders that Russia could be in danger of losing western financial aid because of the Kosovo standoff.

But in another development, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has pledged Moscow will not send any more troops into Kosovo without NATO's agreement, according to British Foreign Minister Robin Cook on Sunday.

Cook was quoted by Reuters as telling reporters he had spoken to Ivanov by telephone on Sunday and they agreed "there should be no surprise moves by either side" like the one Russia made this week by rushing troops to Kosovo ahead of NATO. Ivanov told him " there will be prior agreement with the NATO countries before any more Russian troops are moved to Kosovo," Cook said.

Russia stunned NATO on Friday night when its paratroopers crossed from Bosnia into Yugoslavia and moved south into Kosovo where they took control of the Pristina airport, thwarting NATO plans to make the base its command headquarters.

Cook said that Ivanov had promised those Russian troops, which number about 200, would be absorbed into the international peacekeeping force in Kosovo and not operate separately from it. NATO has insisted it will lead the Kosovo peacekeeping force.

"Igor Ivanov has given me assurances that the Russian troops at the airport will be absorbed into the Kosovo force," Cook said in London. "They will not be operating as a separate unit."

He said the "precise location" in which the Russian forces would be placed had yet to be resolved. ===================================================================== I wonder how the 1000 additional troops would have played into Mr. Igor Ivanov's plans?

Russia cannot be trusted. I don't even blame them really. NATO has thousands of troops only a short distance from their border.

Mike =====================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 14, 1999.


Ivanov is not making policy -- he's apparently cut out of the loop over there.

There are plenty of Russian troops in Bosnia, part of SFOR -- nothing's keeping them from driving down to join the dance.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), June 14, 1999.


I missed alot while I was out of town...wow...Where is Nikoli????

Things are getting heated up!!

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), June 14, 1999.


"I'll Stop the World and Melt With You" by Modern English

-- humming (song@inmind.com), June 14, 1999.

Sorry I haven't been around much lately, been going to school and putting in fourteen hour days. This analysis by Stratfor pretty well sums up what's going on....Nikoli

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update Weekly Analysis June 14, 1999

"It's the Russians, Stupid"

Summary:

NATO continued its policy of trying to turn a compromise into a victory. In order to do that, it has been necessary to treat Russia as if its role was peripheral. It was a policy bound to anger Russia. It was not a bad policy, if NATO were ready and able to slay the bear. But goading a wounded bear when you are not in a position to kill him is a dangerous game. On Saturday morning, the bear struck back. NATO still hasn't gotten him back in his cage.

Analysis:

President Bill Clinton had a sign taped to his desk at the beginning of his first term in office that read, "It's the Economy, Stupid." He should have taped one on his desk at the beginning of the Kosovo affair that said, "It's the Russians, Stupid." From the beginning to the end of this crisis, it has been the Russians, not the Serbs, who were the real issue facing NATO.

The Kosovo crisis began in December 1998 in Iraq. When the United States decided to bomb Iraq for four days in December, in spite of Russian opposition and without consulting them, the Russians became furious. In their view, the United States completely ignored them and had now reduced them to a third-world power - discounting completely Russia's ability to respond. The senior military was particularly disgruntled. It was this Russian mood, carefully read by Slobodan Milosevic, which led him to conclude that it was the appropriate time to challenge the West in Kosovo. It was clear to Milosevic that the Russians would not permit themselves to be humiliated a second time. He was right. When the war broke out, the Russians were not only furious again, but provided open political support to Serbia.

There was, in late April and early May, an urgent feeling inside of NATO that some sort of compromise was needed. The feeling was an outgrowth of the fact that the air war alone would not achieve the desired political goals, and that a ground war was not an option. At about the same time, it became clear that only the Russians had enough influence in Belgrade to bring them to a satisfactory compromise. The Russians, however, were extremely reluctant to begin mediation. The Russians made it clear that they would only engage in a mediation effort if there were a prior negotiation between NATO and Russia in which the basic outlines of a settlement were established. The resulting agreement was the G-8 accords.

The two most important elements of the G-8 agreement were unwritten, but they were at the heart of the agreement. The first was that Russia was to be treated as a great power by NATO, and not as its messenger boy. The second was that any settlement that was reached had to be viewed as a compromise and not as a NATO victory. This was not only for Milosevic's sake, but it was also for Yeltsin's. Following his humiliation in Iraq, Yeltsin could not afford to be seen as simply giving in to NATO. If that were to happen, powerful anti-Western, anti-reform and anti-Yeltsin forces would be triggered. Yeltsin tried very hard to convey to NATO that far more than Kosovo was at stake. NATO didn't seem to listen.

Thus, the entire point of the G-8 agreements was that there would be a compromise in which NATO achieved what it wanted while Yugoslavia retained what it wanted. A foreign presence would enter Kosovo, including NATO troops. Russian troops would also be present. These Russian troops would be used to guarantee the behavior of NATO troops in relation to Serbs, in regard to disarming the KLA, and in guaranteeing Serbia's long-term rights in Kosovo. The presence of Russian troops in Kosovo either under a joint UN command or as an independent force was the essential element of the G-8. Many long hours were spent in Bonn and elsewhere negotiating this agreement.

Over the course of a month, the Russians pressured Milosevic to accept these agreements. Finally, in a meeting attended by the EU's Martti Ahtisaari and Moscow's Viktor Chernomyrdin, Milosevic accepted the compromise. Milosevic did not accept the agreements because of the bombing campaign. It hurt, but never crippled him. Milosevic accepted the agreements because the Russians wanted them and because they guaranteed that they would be present as independent observers to make certain that NATO did not overstep its bounds. This is the key: it was the Russians, not the bombing campaign that delivered the Serbs.

NATO violated that understanding from the instant the announcement came from Belgrade. NATO deliberately and very publicly attacked the foundations of the accords by trumpeting them as a unilateral victory for NATO's air campaign and the de-facto surrender of Serbia. Serbia, which had thought it had agreed to a compromise under Russian guarantees, found that NATO and the Western media were treating this announcement as a surrender. Serb generals were absolutely shocked when, in meeting with their NATO counterparts, they were given non-negotiable demands by NATO. They not only refused to sign, but they apparently contacted their Russian military counterparts directly, reporting NATO's position. A Russian general arrived at the negotiations and apparently presided over their collapse.

Throughout last week, NATO was in the bizarre position of claiming victory over the Serbs while trying to convince them to let NATO move into Kosovo. The irony of the situation of course escaped NATO. Serbia had agreed to the G-8 agreements and it was sticking by them. NATO's demand that Serbia accept non-negotiable terms was simply rejected, precisely because Serbia had not been defeated. The key issue was the Russian role. Everything else was trivial. Serbia had been promised an independent Russian presence. The G-8 agreements had said that any unified command would be answerable to the Security Council. That wasn't happening. The Serbs weren't signing. NATO's attempt to dictate terms by right of victory fell flat on its face. For a week, NATO troops milled around, waiting for Serb permission to move in.

The Russians proposed a second compromise. If everyone would not be under UN command, they would accept responsibility for their own zone. NATO rejected this stating Russia could come into Kosovo under NATO command or not at all. This not only violated the principles that had governed the G-8 negotiations, by removing the protection of Serb interests against NATO, but it also put the Russians into an impossible position in Belgrade and in Moscow. The negotiators appeared to be either fools or dupes of the West. Chernomyrdin and Ivanov worked hard to save the agreements, and perhaps even their own careers. NATO, for reasons that escape us, gave no ground. They hung the negotiators out to dry by giving them no room for maneuver. Under NATO terms, Kosovo would become exactly what Serbia had rejected at Rambouillet: a NATO protectorate. And now it was Russia, Serbia's ally, that delivered them to NATO.

By the end of the week, something snapped in Moscow. It is not clear whether it was Yeltsin who himself ordered that Russian troops move into Pristina or whether the Russian General Staff itself gave the order. What is clear is that Yeltsin promoted the Russian general who, along with his troops, rolled into Pristina. It is also clear that although Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov had claimed that the whole affair was an accident and promised that the troops would be withdrawn immediately, no troops have been removed. Talbott then flew back to Moscow. Clinton got to speak with Yeltsin after a 24-hour delay, but the conversation went nowhere. Meanwhile, Albright is declaring that the Russians must come under NATO command and that's final.

The situation has become more complex. NATO has prevailed on Hungary and Ukraine to forbid Russian aircraft from crossing their airspace with troops bound for Kosovo. Now Hungary is part of NATO. Ukraine is not. NATO is now driving home the fact that Russia is surrounded, isolated and helpless. It is also putting Ukraine into the position of directly thwarting fundamental Russian strategic needs. Since NATO is in no position to defend Ukraine and since there is substantial, if not overwhelming, pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, NATO is driving an important point home to the Russians: the current geopolitical reality is unacceptable from the Russian point of view. By Sunday, Russian pressure had caused Ukraine to change its policy. But the lesson was not lost on Russia's military.

Here is the problem as Stratfor sees it. NATO and the United States have been dealing with men like Viktor Chernomyrdin. These men have had their primary focus, for the past decade, on trying to create a capitalist Russia. They have not only failed, but their failure is now manifest throughout Russia. Their credibility there is nil. In negotiating with the West, they operate from two imperatives. First, they are seeking whatever economic concessions they can secure in the hope of sparking an economic miracle. Second, like Gorbachev before them, they have more credibility with the people with whom they are negotiating than the people they are negotiating for. That tends to make them malleable.

NATO has been confusing the malleability of a declining cadre of Russian leaders with the genuine condition inside of Russia. Clearly, Albright, Berger, Talbott, and Clinton decided that they could roll Ivanov and Chernomyrdrin into whatever agreement they wanted. In that they were right. Where they were terribly wrong was about the men they were not negotiating with, but whose power and credibility was growing daily. These faceless hard-liners in the military finally snapped at the humiliation NATO inflicted on their public leaders. Yeltsin, ever shrewd, ever a survivor, tacked with the wind.

Russia, for the first time since the Cold War, has accepted a low-level military confrontation with NATO. NATO's attempts to minimize it notwithstanding, this is a defining moment in post-Cold War history. NATO attempted to dictate terms to Russia and Russia made a military response. NATO then used its diplomatic leverage to isolate Kosovo from follow-on forces. It has forced Russia to face the fact that in the event of a crisis, Ukraine will be neither neutral nor pro-Russian. It will be pro-NATO. That means that, paperwork aside, NATO has already expanded into Ukraine. To the Russians who triggered this crisis in Pristina, that is an unacceptable circumstance. They will take steps to rectify that problem. NATO does not have the military or diplomatic ability to protect Ukraine. Russia, however, has an interest in what happens within what is clearly its sphere of influence. We do not know what is happening politically in Moscow, but the straws in the wind point to a much more assertive Russian foreign policy.

There is an interesting fantasy current in the West, which is that Russia's economic problems prevent military actions. That is as silly an observation as believing that the U.S. will beat Vietnam because it is richer, or that Athenians will beat the poorer Spartans. Wealth does not directly correlate with military power, particularly when dealing with Russia, as both Napoleon and Hitler discovered. Moreover, all economic figures on Russia are meaningless. So much of the Russian economy is "off the books" that no one knows how it is doing. The trick is to get the informal economy back on the books. That, we should all remember, is something that the Russians are masters at. It should also be remembered that the fact that Russia's military is in a state of disrepair simply means that there is repair work to be done. Not only is that true, but the process of repairing the Russian economy is itself an economic tonic, solving short and long term problems. Military adventures are a psychological, economic and political boon for ailing economies.

Machiavelli teaches the importance of never wounding your adversaries. It is much better to kill them. Wounding them and then ridiculing and tormenting them is the worst possible strategy. Russia is certainly wounded. It is far from dead. NATO's strategy in Kosovo has been to goad a wounded bear. That is not smart unless you are preparing to slay him. Since no one in NATO wants to go bear hunting, treating Russia with the breathtaking contempt that NATO has shown it in the past few weeks is not wise. It seems to us that Clinton and Blair are so intent on the very minor matter of Kosovo that they have actually been oblivious to the effect their behavior is having in Moscow.

They just can't get it into their heads that it's not about Kosovo. It is not about humanitarianism or making ourselves the kind of people we want to be. It's about the Russians, stupid! And about China and about the global balance of power.

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STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), June 14, 1999.


Thanks Nikoli,

I knew you would have some good input on what was happening.

-- Moore Dinty moore (not@thistime.com), June 14, 1999.


Dinty,

Have you read any work by David Icke? If you really want to know what's happening check out "the truth shall set you free". He predicted these types of scenarios years ago, almost exactly as they are occurring, because he knows the ways of the global elite and their NWO agenda.

-- @ (@@@.@), June 14, 1999.


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