For the record: Your July 1st predictions, please

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This being the home of prognosticators from all parts of the Y2K continuum, I thought that we might commit to silicon our predictions for the July 1st "trigger date" before that date actually occurs. That way, some entertaining discussions are sure to follow in July.

My own predictions are as follows:

One US state will encounter problems large enough that they cannot be handled internally by the IT department and will become public. Residents of that state will encounter inconveniences until the problems are ironed out in a few days. All other states will have fiscal roll-overs as eventful as those on April 1st (i.e. not very);

Problems encountered by other nations' federal governments will be handled in-house and not cause any "public" problems.

Feel free to predict on issues other than fiscal roll-overs (i.e. NRC, NERC June 30th deadline etc.)

-- Johnny Canuck (nospam@eh.com), June 12, 1999

Answers

I'm expecting fireworks a couple days later!

-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), June 12, 1999.

Hey that's a prediction that won't be wrong! [Up here we do the fireworks on the 1st.]

-- Johnny Canuck (nospam@eh.com), June 12, 1999.

Johnny,

I predict that on July 1st, Sept 1st will become the new 'on-track, on-schedule' date for completing remediation for thousands of companies. And on Sept 1st it will become Dec 1st.

We all remember 'and a full year for testing' don't we??

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), June 12, 1999.


Johnny,

My guess right now is that until systems that affect manufacturing or distribution encounter dates in 2000, we'll hear little or no news about any problems that may occur. Canada and Britain entered their fiscal year 2000 in April, but we didn't hear about any problems. Overall world awareness of Y2K, though, for whatever reason, seemed to take quite a jump in April.

The fiscal year issue is about accounting and bookkeeping. Until, say, a company orders a part in late 1999 that has an arrival date in 2000 (distribution), we won't be hearing much about glitches. Businesses and governments may notice problems internally in accounting software and grow a bit nervous, but don't expect the general public to start hitting the hardware and grocery stores in large numbers because of July 1st.

And even with accounting software, it's possible in some cases to put a temporary "bandage" on a system by changing the end date of fiscal 2000 from June 30, 2000 to December 31, 1999.

My guess is that until near the end of this year, government and businesses will be much more concerned about Y2K than the general public. I don't know whether or not there will be a stock market downturn and bank runs this year, but if there are, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market be the first of the two to be impacted.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 12, 1999.


questions:

who is the single largest employer that has a fiscal year rollover 1 oct?

who is the single largest employer who's payroll on 1 and 15 oct (and beyond) is contingent on a successful y2k compliance?

who is the single largest employer that if payroll is not delivered on time might not have any ability to mobilize its enforcement arm if the need arises?

My prediction is that if TSHTF - there won't be any marshalls to *law*

-- justme (finally@home.com), June 12, 1999.



justme:

oooooooooooo-kay......I was interested in predictions for events surrounding the *July* 1st trigger date. Maybe we can deal with Oct 1st in a couple of months or so.

-- Johnny Canuck (nospam@eh.com), June 12, 1999.


Johnny,

Take a hint. Noticeable problems due to the July 1st date are not likely. What might get the public's attention is if some large companies ended up doing in July what they have said they would and begin replacing non-compliant vendors with compliant vendors.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 12, 1999.


(1) There will be a shooting war somewhere (Korea, India/Pakistan, Iran/Iraq, Kosova, etc.). (That is easy!)

(2) I agree that many July 1 deadlines will be pushed back, but probably to October 1. Eventually, we'll see a lot of December 30 deadlines (with a full day for testing!).

(3) Preparedness supplies will continue to get more expensive, and a little harder to find. If the stock market breaks sharply between now and then, they'll be a LOT harder to find...

(4) Relatively few problems...at least in the press. A lot more actually happening. Programmers scrambling to fix the problems encountered before the word goes public.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 12, 1999.


I don't expect much to happen. That INCLUDES, massive amounts of: we are compliant statements !!!!!!!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), June 12, 1999.

I forecast that less than half of all businesses will finish their Y2k projects by July 1st.

-- (an@easy.forecast), June 12, 1999.


I love these predictions. Nothing much ever happens. Just a glitch or two here and there. Shucks, I waited all weekend for the predicted bomb to appear at the Indy 500--didn't happen. It seems the only significant glitches are caused by hackers with their little "worms" and "germs."

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), June 12, 1999.

Early to mid July we may see a blowup in gold prices.

Large institutions (Goldman & Sachs), hedge funds have been playing the "carry gold trade" and shorting gold for years. In effect, the big boys stay in business by forcing down the price of gold. If gold goes up, the stock market will drop like a stone.

On July 8, the Bank of England is selling quite a few tons of gold. I think the sale will be over-subscribed. That event might cause a jump in gold prices. Despite what the newspapers say, the price of gold is critical in today's economy.

While this is not a y2k computer problem, the fear of what y2k will bring will be part of the reason for the spike in gold prices.

-- another time bomb (david@home.com), June 12, 1999.


Huge Earthquakes all over the planet, Frogs falling from the sky, the Sun turns blood red, claps of Thunder...

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Don't expect anything except the unexpected.

-- (sonofdust@com.net), June 12, 1999.


I expect a rash of 'nearly ready' announcements from the public sector as political requirements, on whatever day such announcements are politically mandated.

In the private sector, experience has shown that compliance announcements haven't helped business much, and noncompliance admissions haven't hurt much either. Since the legal risks of compliance announcements still exist, I expect more of the same 'we expect no problems' mantra, issued whenever anyone asks.

I expect glitches to continue to happen in both sectors at the normal historical rate, but we'll blame them all on y2k anyway.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 12, 1999.


Taking Linkmeister's hint, do I understand that *no-one* here subscribes to the North/Yourdon/Milne/Hamasaki etc. view of big problems by mid 1999?

-- Johnny Canuck (nospam@eh.com), June 12, 1999.


zzzzzzzzz ... July 1st ... zzzzzzzz ... behind the scenes quick squelch of any problems that did crop up ... zzzzzzz ... Y2K the untouchable unmentionable dirty little secret .... zzzzzzzz ... but slowly things are heating up on the back burner ....

July (or maybe September) the 7th month of 1999, something or other may light up the sky, fireworks heeheehee, who knows? If nothing has happened by Halloween, there will be an even more pronounced mass repudiation of prophesy and "alternative" thought.

Interesting times, watching the signs as they fly by, or don't ...

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 12, 1999.


July 1st, June 30 deadline companies declare "substantial" compliance.

-- Leslie (***@***.net), June 12, 1999.

my predictions:

July 1st = nothing that attracts attention of public

GPS roleover = also no big deal, if noticeable at all

Sept. 9th = also no big deal, unless you count that by being no big deal it will be touted as big news by those wanting to reassure people

January 1st: I'll have electricity (no, I don't have a generator)

year 2000: serious global depression

year 2010: serious bragging rights beginning to be established and millions of little kids already sick of hearing the parents talk about how easy the kid has it compared to "the old days"

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 12, 1999.


Nothing will happen.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), June 12, 1999.

July 1st? I will be sitting in the Astrodome watching the Houston Astros beat the St. Louis Cardinals!!

Oh! Y2K? Um.... well, if anything does happen that day, it will probably be awhile till we know about it. Originally that was the day that all of the Nukes had to be compliant, or risk being shut down. But, I think that date has been changed, too, hasn't it?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), June 12, 1999.


I expect anything that can be hidden will remain that way, and that the few problems that *might* make it into the public awareness will be adequately explained away.

Also predict that Koskinen will hold more "community conversations" and the next end-of-June United Nations Y2K global contingency planning meeting participants will return to their countries by July 1st with *lots* of homework "to do."

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 12, 1999.


july 1 = yawn

january 1 = hangover

january 2 = generators on sale

-- c u on the other side (g@g.g), June 12, 1999.


jan 1 = Wall Street closed - holiday and Saturday. Banks closed - holiday and Saturaday. ATM's half empty.

jan 2 = stores closed (Sunday), no generators sold. Banks closed. Wall Street closed. No power, no satellite, no phones = no ATM. Other ATM's become empty.

jan 3 = no power (in some places) to sell generators (where needed); therefore, no generators sold. Many generators used - in other places - where they were sold ahead of time. Wall Street? Might have power, might not have power. Might have water, might not have water. Might have phones, might not have phones. Might have satellites, might not have satellites. Banks? Some might have power, some might not have power.....all have lines. No power, no satellite, no phones = no ATM. Remaining ATM's emptied.

jan 4 = some power, in places, no power, in other places. All generators sold - for cash. No cash, no sale. Banks still dark. ATM's still empty. Checks not accepted, credit cards acepted, no debit cards.

jan 5 ....

____________

May 5 - that's when Mexico celebrates "cinco de Mayo"

July 1 - Canada Day, right? That's when Canada celebrates July 1.

July 4 - that's when US celebrates July 4.

Guy Fawkes Day - that's when UK celebrates a guy getting "fawked"...

Do you guys see a pattern here? Holidays tend to get celebrated on the date they are scheduled?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 12, 1999.


Gayla,

Have you watched those useless Cowboys beat anyone lately? hahaha

OOPS, sorry Diane and Pestka. I was off topic.

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), June 12, 1999.


Gayla:

No, it was never the day any nukes risked being shut down. It is, and always has been, a reporting deadline from the nukes to the NRC. On that date, they have to satisfy the NRC that they have no y2k-related safety issues unless they can show that such outstanding safety issues will be addressed during later scheduled shutdowns. And it's not the responsibility of the NRC to shut them down if they're safe, whether they can continue to generate power or not.

Rick Cowles doesn't expect NRC to shut down any nukes at this time, but predicts that any actual shutdowns that might be ordered won't happen until December. To my knowledge, there is no set deadline for any shutdowns.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 12, 1999.


Thanks, Flint. I was aware that July 1st was the day for the report only. I didn't take time to spell all of that out since we've been through it a million times, but maybe for the newbie's sake I should have. The point I was trying to make, was that I believe even the reporting deadline has been moved to September. There seems to be a lot of that going around.

PS- I don't watch the Cowboys. Since Landry left... well, I can't say anything nice, so I won't say anything at all! :-)

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), June 12, 1999.


GG - Gayla is in Houston - watching the Astro's, who are a baseball team, not a football team. She is not referring to going to Dallas to watch the Dallas Cowbys, since she is from Houston and is still in mourning for the despicable sale of the Oilers to TN. Besides, she is from Houston, and would not watch the Cowboy's anyway. She'd rather watch the nearest "real" pro team - either UT or AM or Houston or LSU, rather than watch a Dallas team in the other conference.

So please, do not try to insult a Texan about football - you don't know enough about the subject to do it succesfully. (You can, however, pick on any ice-skaters or hockey players - we don't care about them, too much)

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 12, 1999.


I will be interested to see if there are any impacts in the State of Calif. I know our county is currently going through the budget process, although most funds are non-discretionary. The States and counties must use some sort of software to extrapolate into the year 2000 for budget purposes. I am guessing it is already compliant or manually computed as the budget figures should already be done to be approved by 7/1.

I will be keeping an eye out for divers license renewal, property taxes, etc.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 13, 1999.


You GO, Robert! :-) Except, Robert, the Houston Aeros just won the Turner Cup. (IHL Hockey!) OK, I don't go see them play, but we're always glad to have a winning team. The Rockets used to win, now it's the Comets. And don't EVEN bring up the Oilers!!! Oops! I think we're off topic!

PS- Robert, we're gonna crush your Braves on Monday!!

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), June 13, 1999.


July 1: not much happens. business as usual.

Jan 1: despite noble efforts, lots of mainframes croak. The electricity is flickery in most places but not blacked out. no cash in the cash machines, little if any food in the stores. lots of hangovers. in big cities there are armored personell carriers manned by people wondering what the heck the big deal is about. Most decide that y2k in the States was much ado about nothing, but eye problems overseas with a worrisome glance.

Jan. 3: big huge critical errors cripple 10-20% of all businesses. In 50% the businesses are struck by errors that slow but do not stop the work. Ripple effects speculated, and stock market go down 25%-30 by the end of the day. Air traffic grinds to a near halt with gridlocked flights. IT becomes obvious that we're going to run out of gasoline and refined petroleum products.

Jan. Ripple effects take hold, and businesses begin to fail. The stock market is half what it is now by month's end. Gas is rationed and it is too expensive to support all-but-essential auto use.

Jan- March: Solar flares, virii, or sabotage causes a massive blackout, rendered difficult to control or contain after previous y2k failures were swept under the rug. Civil disturbance ignites.

April: things are really beginning to spiral downward. Chaos. TAx collection is a joke. Electric power is rationed so industry gets it in the day and homes get it at night.

June-Dec 00': Things bottom out. Food becomes scarce. Unemployment is at 25-30%, but over half of the people had lost their 1999 jobs. A state of emergency is decleared. A major war breaks out somewhere in the world but the US is too sick to bother with it now.

2001-2006: This time is known as the 2nd Great Depression. Recovery is slow (at first) and happens in fits and starts before taking off like a rocket. Necessity enables some brilliant new technology to be invented which fuels a juggernaut recovery.

AFter that, who knows?

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), June 13, 1999.


The Astros beat the Cardinals? Dream on.!! One area where Texans can beat everyone is BS. I lived in West Texas for years, my son was born there, and they are good-hearted, friendly people, but the BS gets deep.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), June 13, 1999.

Hey Gilda! That's why we wear boots around here! :-) You just watch those Astros on July 1st!! In all honesty, I wonder how much of "life as we know it" will change next year? Maybe not from Y2K as much as from changes to the economy?? If money is tight, will we go to ball games, movies, or out to eat?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), June 13, 1999.

The general concensus seems to be that it will just be more of the same, and that is probably correct. The sheeple will continue to sleep through the summer.

But since I've noticed an awful lot of businesses promising to be compliant by June 30, I think this would be the time to start demanding some answers. Those of us who "get it" should begin to pressure the media to investigate and force these businesses to reveal their status.

I think that July 1 is psychologically significant as the "turning point" where we have rounded the corner, and are headed toward Dec. 31 at full steam. Depending on how much the media is willing to reveal, this could be when people begin to panic. But better now than later, because the longer they wait the worse it will be.

-- @ (@@@.@), June 13, 1999.


Also see the thread...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0010Bz

"Some thoughts regarding the JoAnn Effect."

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 26, 1999.


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