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Progress Revisited: That Darned Reality Just Keeps Intruding
By E. L. Core June 8, 1999
I'm going to revisit several articles that I've discussed in previous essays. First, an addendum to the International Energy Agency article. Then, a recap of the Colorado Springs storyand a look at how it seems to be echoed in some more recent news. Also, some reflections on an aspect of The New York Times article about the survey that says big U.S. companies are falling behind in their Y2K repairs.
More on Y2K and the Oil Industry
I had quoted from the International Energy Agency's Working Paper: The Year 2000 Problem and the Oil Industry - Refining webpage:
"An extensive survey of a refinery in the UK identified 94 systems requiring investigation for Y2K compliance. Of the systems assessed it was found that three would fail and that two of these three failures would cause a shutdown."
An informed reader has told me that survey was only a pilot; a survey of the full refinery was mentioned in an article in The New York Times, "Computers and Year 2000: A Race for Security (and Against Time)," December 27, 1998:
"British Petroleum's giant Grangemouth refinery complex identified 2,132 embedded systems and found that 15 would fail in a way that would shut down operations if they were not fixed, said Ian Jenson, the project manager."
More Municipal Politicians Get Rudely Awakened
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Here, again, is the Associated Press story, City behind on fixing Y2K problem (the link has already expired), published in the Casper Wyoming Star-Tribune, May 2, 1999:
"COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (AP) - City officials are scrambling to beat the clock to avoid Year-2000 computer problems and wondering why something wasn't done long ago. A $5.4 million project to upgrade the city's payroll computers and exterminate the Y2K bug will cost at least $2.5 million more, city officials said Thursday...City Manager Jim Mullen is investigating what went wrong. The focus is on city staff and consultants hired to implement the software and make all computer programs compatible...
"Mullen said he was misled by project leaders and staffers who indicated the project was progressing. That was the message given to the City Council. 'All the Y2K briefings we received was that
everything was on track,' said former Councilman Randy Purvis, who left office on April 20..."
I asked a question in my first look at that article: "How prevalent is the Colorado Springs situation? I don't know the answer. Neither do you." Since then, news out of Dallas and Los Angeles has tended to vindicate my suspicion that Colorado Springs, Colorado, is not the only U.S. city in which the politicians are clue-free about Y2K repairs.
Colorado Springs, Texas-Style
A strikingly similar situation in Dallas was revealed in Council members worry services won't be Y2K-ready by Jan. 1 after hearing report, an article in the Dallas Morning News, May 25, 1999:
"Several Dallas City Council members are concerned that some city services may not be Y2K ready when the new year starts. All city operations were supposed to be Y2K compliant by the end of July, giving staff members a five-month cushion to work out any glitches. But on Monday, members of the council's Finance and Audit Committee were told that some systems probably won't be ready until November or December. "'Somebody lied to us,' said council member Alan Walne, who appeared visibly upset. 'What are we supposed to do if in December those systems aren't ready?'
"City staff members acknowledged they were running behind on some projects, but they said most of the remaining problems are minor and should not affect city services.
"'The critical projects have been completed,' said Dan McFarland, the city's chief information officer who is overseeing the Y2K project. 'There are still some small items that need work, but it's not going to stop the city from functioning...'
"'This is so critical,' said Mayor Pro Tem Mary Poss, chairwoman of the city's Finance and Audit Committee. 'The water system, traffic lights, all of those things are controlled by computers. And it concerns me that this is the first time we're being told that we're experiencing some delays...'
"Robert O'Neal, director of research and information services for the North Central Texas Council of Governments, said Dallas was well- prepared for a city its size. He said delays are not unusual.
"'It just shows the detail in which the city is going through its system and ensuring that it is Y2K ready,' Mr. O'Neal said. 'Dallas has really gone above and beyond what other organizations are doing.' "Copyright 1999 The Dallas Morning News"
"Somebody lied to us", he said. You Betcha Boy. "This is the first time we're being told that we're experiencing some delays", she said. Surprise, Surprise, Surprise.
Now, Dallas officials shouldn't be jumping to conclusions that the city is going to fall apart because everything will stop working on January 1, 2000 -- if that's what they're doing. On the other hand, why on earth are they surprised that bad news was kept back for as long as possible? Geesh. You'd almost think these politicians are meeting human beings for the very first time.
Colorado Springs, California-Style
One can get the same what-planet-are-these-politicians-from? feeling when one reads about Los Angeles in Power Outage Makes City Hall Y2K Drill a Little Too Realistic (the link is dead already), an article in the Los Angeles Times, May 26, 1999:
"Preparing for millennial chaos, hundreds of city workers participated in Los Angeles' first Year 2000 disaster drill Tuesday at City Hall. The one thing they were not prepared for: a real power outage.
Elevators churned to a halt and lights went out about 9 a.m., when a power surge knocked out a third of the building's electricity.
"The outage forced Mayor Richard Riordan and his large entourage to trudge up nine floors of stairs to his office and descend 12 floors to attend the Y2K drill. Others were stuck in elevators, while it took an hour and 20 minutes to restore power. Riordan was visibly upset when he finally emerged from the basement stairwell and walked into the
Emergency Operation Center.
"'That bothers me,' Riordan told reporters. 'If we cann't [sic] take care of the elevators, what can we take care of in this city?' When he had calmed down, Riordan said he was assured that the power shutdown had nothing to do with the drill to determine whether the city will continue operating smoothly as the 20th century comes to an end Jan. 1. The outage was later blamed on a short in a power meter.
"'We're very proud of the preparations of the city for any Y2K problems,' Riordan said. 'I feel very confident that there willn't [sic] be any major problems...'
"'The purpose of exercises are to be prepared for anything, which is why we create events that in real life almost certainly will not occur,' said Ellis M. Stanley, assistant city administrative officer... "City Council members were outraged by the power outage and shutdown of elevators, and some were not convinced that the outage and the Y2K drill were not linked...
"Copyright 1999 Los Angeles Times."
The mayor and "his large entourage" had to walk up nine floors and, later, down twelve. Oh the inconceivable indignity of it all. One can easily imagine that everybody up and down the drill's chain of command got a mighty chewing out; but, I'd be willing to bet that their
enjoyment of the mayor's public embarrassment would almost have made up for it. Am I being too cynical? Well, even some city council members "were not convinced that the outage and the Y2K drill were not linked." Now, that's cynical.
A reader, Mark Maginity, was struck by "The Disconnect Effect" in the story; he wrote this to me:
Talk about cognitive dissonance! The mayor expresses doubt about being able to take care of anything in the city during a mock crisis, then expresses complete confidence they can handle the real thing. And I wonder if the power failures and elevator problems are included in the definition of 'events that in real life almost certainly will not occur'?"
Indeed. Reality intrudes.
Now, is it just me, or do you too get the impression -- at least when it comes to Y2K -- that The Three Stooges are in charge of our cities? And that The Keystone Cops are working for them?
The Behinder They Get...the Rosier the Picture Looks?
The Disconnect Effect exhibits itself, too, in The New York Times article Big Companies Falling Behind in Year 2000 Repairs, Survey Says (the link is dead already), May 17, 1999; let's have another look at it:
"The largest companies in the nation continue to fall behind their schedules for Year 2000 repairs, and most suspect that their budget estimates for the remaining work are too low, according to a survey in April that was the latest in a closely watched series that began in 1994.
"About 22 percent say they do not expect to have all of their critical systems tested and ready to adjust when the clock ticks over to Jan. 1, 2000. That is up from 16 percent in November and 12 percent last August...
"The surveys, which are sponsored by CAP Gemini America, a New York consulting firm, are carried out by Howard A. Rubin, an information technology researcher based in Pound Ridge, N.Y. The respondents are typically chief information officers or project managers.
"'Everyone agrees there will be some sort of disruptions,' Rubin said. 'The real issue is going to be how you maintain business
continuity....' Projects are slipping past their expected deadlines at 92 percent of the companies...
"'It's typical information technology,' said Prof. Leon A. Kappelman, a software management expert at the University of North Texas. 'You don't get any recognition until the last 30 days that your project is going to be late...'
"For all the problems, the respondents seem confident in their ability to manage their way through Year 2000 disruptions. Three out of four said that their Year 2000 programs will give them a competitive
advantage, the survey found.
"Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company"
The Throw-Them-A-Bone Technique
See that? Paragraph after paragraph of bad Y2K news, but the concluding paragraph is upbeat. Why? Well, not only is this article an example of The Disconnect Effect, it's also an example of what I call the Throw- Them-A-Bone Technique. When the real Y2K news is bad, make sure you throw out a bone somewhere, to keep us from doing the unforgivable: that is, to keep us from inevitably drawing a negative conclusion about Y2K after reading the article. The technique may not be the reporter's initiative -- it may be that of the editor, for instance, or of whoever is being quoted. But that's The Throw-Them-A-Bone Technique.
Does it work? You bet. Here, for instance, is the substance of some remarks about that article, which I found posted on one of the Y2K forums on the World Wide Web:
"More interesting, maybe, is the last paragraph: seventy-five percent felt Y2K was going to give them a competitive advantage. Doesn't that say something for how they think Y2K will turn out?"
No. It does not "say something for how they think Y2K will turn out." It shows us, rather, how they refuse to go where their thoughts would naturally lead them. Let's recap the article to see what I mean:
a survey of Chief Information Officers and Y2K Project Managers at large U.S. companies
showed that 22 percent already don't expect their critical systems to be "tested and ready" by the end of the year, which is up from 16 percent last fall and 12 percent last summer,
though an expert says it's "typical information technology" to think that late projects are on schedule until the last 30 days; moreover, Y2K projects have been "slipping past" their deadlines at ninety-two percent of the companies; and,
most expect their Y2K budgets will have to go up again; also,
according to the survey researcher, "everyone agrees there will be some sort of disruptions"; nonetheless,
seventy-five percent think their Y2K programs will give them a
"competitive advantage."
Say what? A huge percentage of the companies already expect to fail their big deadline -- many, many months before such a negative
expectation would typically be acknowledged. And nearly all of them have already been failing intermediate deadlines. And most of them expect to have to spend more money than they had thought. Yet, they some how expect to gain a "competitive advantage" from their Y2K projects.
How, exactly, does one account for that...what shall I call
it?...schizophrenia? Yes, how does one account for that corporate schizophrenia? I can think of three ways, none exclusive of the others:
the CIOs and Project Managers simply do not -- for one reason or another -- face up to the reality indicated by missed deadlines and soaring budgets; and/or,
the CIOs and PMs are projecting onto the competition their own
experiences of past failures and their own worries about future
failures; and/or,
the CIOs and PMs actually think the competition is in even worse shape than their own companies are.
Finding comfort, then, in the CIOs' and PMs' speculation -- that's what it is, speculation -- about "competitive advantage" is the sheerest grasping at straws.
The Look-Here-Not-There Strategy
The Dallas Morning News article exhibits The Throw-Them-A-Bone
Technique, too: "Dallas has really gone above and beyond what other organizations are doing," the newspapers' readers are told. And Dallas is "well-prepared for a city its size," they're also told.
See, the residents of Dallas are supposed to conclude, See? It's not so bad after all.
But, doesn't all that make you wonder how prepared -- or how unprepared -- other U.S. cities are? It sure makes me wonder.
If Dallas -- where at least one official is levying accusations of having been lied to about Y2K repairs -- if Dallas is singled out as "well-prepared," what does that tell us about how much (or little) other cities are preparing? If Dallas is singled out as having "gone above and beyond what other organizations are doing," what does that tell us about how well (or poorly) other organizations are doing? Don't you have to wonder?
If the reporter wondered, you can't tell. You see, the Dallas Morning News article is an example, not only of The Throw-Them-A-Bone
Technique, but of The Look-Here-Not-There Strategy, too. You know:
"Our city is going to be okay; we have to worry about other cities." "Our company is going to be okay; we have to worry about other companies."
"Our industry is going to be okay; we have to worry about other industries."
"Our country is going to be okay; we have to worry about other countries."
Too bad we can't say, "Our planet is going to be okay; we have to worry about other planets."
Drew Parkhill has made similar observations following a report, June 1, 1999, about Canada's Private & Public Sectors Falling Behind On Y2K:
"Aside from the logical conclusion that Canada may well find itself facing more Y2K problems than it previously expected, there is also this key point: Canada is one of the world's Y2K leaders. If such 'slippage' is happening there, what is the situation in other key nations, like Germany, France, and those in South America and Asia? Clearly, those areas are far from immune from Y2K difficulties." Survey vs. Press Releases
Most Americans are getting their Y2K information -- what little they get -- from the widespread practice of "journalism by press release". So, here's something for you to consider.
According to The New York Times article, twenty-two percent of the large companies surveyed by CAP Gemini said they don't expect to have critical systems "tested and ready" in time for the turn of the year. How many of those companies have issued a press release saying so?
(You didn't think I was going to throw you a bone, did you?)
====================
This is unbelievably typical. I see it in almost every article. The objective bad news is presented and then... the disconnect effect. A totally disjointed conclusion. A conclusion so far removed from the evidence as to be hilariously funny.
Repetedly I read stories full of horrendous news and at the end the incredibly disjointed and disconnected response.
bks and brock are the master of this in this newsgroup. No bad news surfaces without a completely disconnected rejoinder.
It is reported that All of our major Oil suppliers are 18 to 24 months off the pace in remediation. The biggest supplier needs a $billon and their government has not yet started on Y2K.
The logical conclusion is that this is an economic disaster for US. Their disconnect: This will spawn new ways of exploring for Oil and excite new imperatives for renewable resources. GREAT NEWS!!
They are laughable.
The same with brock's spate of 'neutral' public service reporting. He reports an insurance company that is doing well. But, forgets the hundred that are not.
He reports about a village in the Himalayas that laughs at the Y2k problem. But forgets that they are irrelevant.
He reports about a water company that is doing a good job, and ignores the majority that are not.
No bad news is of any consequence. It is the very DEFINITION of
Pollyanna.
The whole point is that, taken as a whole, the evidence and facts about the global failure are dire. A pollyanna is psychologically unsuited to admit the truth. It is part and parcel of their character. They have an utter intellectual inability to see the big picture and to tie all the little pieces together. In many cases it is not just an 'inability' but rather an abject refusal.
There is no country even close to ready. There is no industry even close to ready. There is no significant portion of any industry that is ready.
Yet the Pollyanna will continue to point fingers at others, to 'throw you a bone' and to proceed onto their next 'disconnect'.
They will get you and your family killed.
http://y2ktimebomb.com/Media/lcore9923.htm
--
Paul Milne
If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
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