Doomer goofs hate stories like this - full of rational people who actually work on Y2K projects.

Most U.S. Business Not Bugged by Millennium BY JOHN DORSCHNER KNIGHTRIDDER NEWS SERVICE A few days before a major deadline for fixing Year 2000 computer glitches, a growing number of experts are saying the so-called millennium bug will probably cause nothing more than minor problems. Most major American corporations have announced that they want to be ready for the millennium six months in advance, by June 30, so that there are no last-minute snafus. Last month, Information Week, the publication for the computer experts who manage corporate systems, surveyed 240 pros. Its conclusion: Most major U.S. businesses will experience "nothing more than minor annoyances that can be easily managed." That comes on top of a similar pronouncement by Peter de Jager, author of the book Countdown Y2K and one of the first experts to warn that the computer problem could have disastrous consequences. Jager's new conclusion: "We've finally broken the back of the Y2K problem . . . We've avoided global bank failures, global power outages and global communications collapse." Major corporations agree. Julie Davis, a spokeswoman for NationsBank, reports that the bank's "big, big deadline" is June 30 and "we are on target to be ready by our deadlines." Spero Canton, BellSouth: "Our testing is going very well. We expect our testing to be done sometime in July. We have committed several thousand people to this and a budget of $350 million." If you've been watching television, you might imagine there's still a good chance that the apocalypse might be looming. During the May sweeps, several news shows rehashed the old fears that planes might not be able to fly and automatic teller machines might not be able to dispense money. Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, who's on a Senate committee examining the Y2K bug, revealed a few days ago that he plans to have a 55-gallon drum filled with water at his Salt Lake City home in case the public water supply fails. Meanwhile, most experts are breathing a sigh of relief. Though some foreign countries are lagging behind, particularly in Latin America, many corporations and governments have been throwing huge resources at fixing the problem that was caused by programmers' lack of foresight in creating software that will read next year as 00. Worldwide, the Gartner Group estimates that up to $600 billion has been spent on fixes. For some months, Jager has been saying that the worst problems have been resolved. The guru behind the Web site www.year2000.com, which has become a worldwide clearinghouse for Y2K reports, acknowledges that "for a long time, I was labeled . . . doomsayer, fear monger, dread merchant and Chicken Little." In fact, he was warning that civilization would take a big hit -- if people didn't start fixing the problem. But they did. "Most, not all companies are working on this issue. They are fixing, or have fixed, their systems," he wrote in a March statement. No experts are claiming the transition is going to be error-free. The Information Week survey showed that only 26 percent of the pros thought they would be completely unscathed by Y2K glitches. "That's less than the 41 percent who had no fear in a similar poll published in December," reported the magazine. "This may be because year 2000 problems, though minor, have struck more companies since then. "More than a quarter of correspondents reported experiencing Y2K glitches. On average, the severity of the problems was rated as mild, and the majority were fixed in less than a day." Overseas, things are not looking so rosy. At the BrainStorm Year 2000 symposium held in March in New Orleans, Stephanie Moore of the Giga Group reported that it's hard to find out what's happening in the rest of the world. Moore stated that many Russian managers still weren't aware of the problem, according to Jon Huntress, reporting for Year2000.com. Latin America, the Pacific Rim and Eastern Europe are still in the inventory stage to find out how widespread their problems are. Most of Western Europe is in the midst of fixing its glitches, while Britain, Canada and Australia have joined major U.S. corporations in now testing the fixes. "In Asia, the situation is mixed," Huntress reported. "China says it is addressing the problem, but of 500 companies asked, 53 percent still don't know what Y2K is." Japan is also reported to be lagging behind. Many stock market analysts think that because the American economy is so strong, snafus elsewhere should have a minimal effect on the U.S. stock market, but some disagree. Ed Yardeni, Deutsche Bank's chief economist for U.S. equities and the leading Wall Street alarmist on Y2K, believes that because of other countries' slowness to respond, there's a 25 percent chance that Y2K will cause a six-month recession and a 40 percent chance that the problem could result in a major global recession lasting up to 24 months. Davis at NationsBank, like most corporate spokespeople, says she's been warned by lawyers that lawsuits can be lurking if there are glitches. "We have to be very careful not to make guarantees or assurances because of that." Already there have been more than 80 Y2K-related lawsuits, and more are bound to follow. But how does Davis personally assess the problem? She says she doesn't plan to rush to her ATM on Dec. 31. "I'm not a big cash person. I have a check card. I think I'll be covered."

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 10, 1999

Answers

Ever think what the stock of these companys would be worth if they said they were not going to be compliant?

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 10, 1999.

Speaking of people who actually work on Y2K projects, check out the new survey in USA Today

www.usatoday.com/news/ndswed05.htm

which says that 45% of "professionals fixing or tracking the computer glitch" think y2k will have a significant impact, and 10% of these professionals think it will be "the end of the world as we know it."

The article says: "The experts are more pessimistic than the public at large."

I'd say the bump-in-the-road scenario is not yet a certainty, Mr. Y2KPro. Why risk the health and safety of your family? Skip the Disney World trip this year and spend the money on self-sufficiency supplies.

-- rick blaine (y2kazoo@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Some say their ready, some say they aint. this is the same dumbshit that Norm post. HEY wait a minute......

-- KoFE (Your@town.USA), June 10, 1999.

Bigg, what are Union Carbide stocks worth?

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

=======> .

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 10, 1999.

Y2k Pro,

I have been lurking on this forum for a while now. I am not a computer person, but I did read TB2000 and was led to this site. I have been on the fence about how bad y2k will really be and I have tried to stay open to both sides.

I live in a big city and have three children. If y2k will be bad then I need to relocate, buy food etc. etc. I can do it if I cash in my pension. My concern is the safey and well being of my family.

The article you posted above has convinced my to stay where I am. There seems to be just enough good news that I don't think it will be that bad. Maybe some minor disruptions etc. but nothing to really make me relocate and uproot my family.

Thanks for hanging in there with the doomers, keeping your head, and helping us fencesitting nongeeks make our y2k decisions.

A lurker

-- a lurker (site@unknown.now), June 10, 1999.

Latest CAP Gemini business survey (May):

55% of Fortune 500 companies will MISS the June 30th deadline.

22% of Fortune 500 companies will MISS the JAN 1st 2000 deadline.

(These figures are for "mission critical" systems)

Now, what were you saying...?

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 10, 1999.

Union Carbide closed at 49 3/16 down 1 1/2

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 10, 1999.

Rick, 45% of that survey thought it would be "bump in the road". When you put it all together, it sounds plausible. 10% wacko and the rest evenly divided on the outcome.

-- Reading (take@look.atit), June 10, 1999.

if i hear "on track" one more time i'll puke. geez .. talk about vague generalities ...

-- lou navarro (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), June 10, 1999.

Why does any company owe you, little lou, any information on project status? Hope you feel better after the puke. Why don't you save it for the millenium, for all those food shortages?

-- Gets me (sick@with.doom), June 10, 1999.

it really gets me,

these ANNONYMOUS fuckers

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 10, 1999.

lurker,

honestly, if you have young children and live in a big city .. dont assume from that one article that all is OK. its not all ok. i've worked in the IT industry for 12 years, and the amount of evidence supporting the possibility of a doomer-type breakdown is simply overwhelming at this point in time. please note that i use the word 'possibility'. NO ONE can say with certainty what is going to happen.

the risks are there and no one can argue with that. the stakes are enormous, especially for those with a family. i feel strongly its your right to take a chance with your own life. but not with kids.

good luck

-- lou navarro (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), June 10, 1999.

Y2k Pro,

I've read enough of your posts to know your no half-wit but, sorry my freind, your being spoon-fed here. Try to absorb this, ok? One system failure in one company in one town is not going to upset the world apple cart. BUT...100's of thousands of failures occuring all over the world in ONE DAY will most definitly. And those failures will cause others. See? It's really that simple. Now I'm not expecting a 10 but I am quite certain that it won't be business as usuall come 1/3/00. Also, all of you in urban areas remember this, hungry neighbors make DANGEROUS neighbors, and starving neighbors make DEADLY neighbors. For all you polly's out there, stock some food and water (and tp!) if nothing else, transportation will be affected to SOME degree and food prices WILL go up. Save yourself a few bucks.

Just tryin' to help.

-- MidwestMike_ (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

Get me sounds just like cpr. Is CPR lurking around here again. Go back to last year when cpr was saying the same thing.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999.

And how do you answer that simple fact, often ignored and NEVER put forth by doomers, that Y2K failures have been with us for at least two years right now? Visa was going to be toast by now - 1/1/99 would be the wake up for small business when their accounting software refused to rollover - 4/1/99 was IT according to Ed himself. And we are still trucking on. Lowest figure I have seen for percentage of Y2K failures right now vs the total of all Y2K failures is 18%. High end is close to 50%. As for the jillions of failures due on 1/1/2000 - 8% of the total is the estimated figure for the number of Y2K failures on that date(Garner Group). Some doomer graphed their expected failures (think it was Cory Hamasaki) last year, go check it if they haven't all been pulled down - this chart showed the first four months of this year being as bad as the numbers (total) for the first two months next year. I think we can survive that. I will repost the chart or link if I can find it again.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

>And how do you answer that simple fact, often ignored and NEVER put forth by doomers, that Y2K failures have been with us for at least two years right now? (Paul Davis)

And a DAMN good thing, too! That's ONE BIG REASON to have hope. Correct enough stuff in advance, and we "make it". Fail to do it, and we're history...

And now, for the $64,000 question.... (drum roll plz)

HOW MUCH IS *ENOUGH*...????

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 10, 1999.

Easy to predict that some frowney-face spin would have to be put on these facts.

-- cd (artful@dodger.com), June 10, 1999.

Paul,

See the thread "July Rollover"...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000vuy

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

Andy,

Would that be all anonymous fuckers, or just the polly anonymous fuckers?

-- anonymous fugger (anon@anon.anon), June 10, 1999.

Andy, Flint =======> .
Poole =======> .
Mutha =======> .
"Pro" =======> .


-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

A snip from the Knightridder article:

Its conclusion: Most major U.S. businesses will experience "nothing more than minor annoyances that can be easily managed."

That is true in one sense--most businesses (78%, 80% or 85%?) are not expected to experience a mission-critical system failure. What we don't know yet is how non-compliant vendors here and abroad will affect this majority.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

I meant, Andy,

Flint =======> .
Poole =======> .
Mutha =======> .
"Pro" =======>


-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

a, mustn't exclude double D: =======> ..

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 10, 1999.

whine about ad hominem attacks and then do them yourselves

hypocrites

-- z (z@z.z), June 10, 1999.

I think it's an interesting coincidence that the first slickly- written "stay calm" article (November 1998) was also from KnightRidder:

http://www.wichitaeagle.com/technology/docs/y2kchill1116.htm

"About that Y2K warning, chill out"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

Ooops. I hit my brain with a q-tip. I have a monkey in my shorts.

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 10, 1999.

Thas OK y2kpro...I do it all the time, just spank the monkey; it will go away!

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Thats OK y2kpro...I do it all the time, just spank the monkey; it will go away!

-- a (a@a.a), June 10, 1999.

Y2k Pro,

"some foreign countries are lagging behind, particularly in Latin America" Fact" 17% of our oil comes from Venezuela. I know, thats in North South America, but consider the impacts of non compliant nations.

"Most major American corporations have announced that they want to be ready for the millennium six months in advance"

Name me one major bank, oil refinery, power company, that is compliant now. Not wanting to be, but is absolutely ready and tested now. I would leap for joy to hear that most power plants are 100% compliant and thoroughly tested.

"Overseas, things are not looking so rosy."

It's a global economy. Ever see a CD player or radio that says "Made in USA"?

These things, the wildcards, are what make this nightmare we perpetually debate about so maddening. I really don't think most "doomers" want Y2K to be a disaster. I personally hope and pray it is business as usual without the slightest hickup. I've a question for you. If you have little children looking at you with empty stomachs, and you knew you could have done something to avoid the situation, what will you tell them? I propose most "doomers" are simply weighing a multitude of facts and preparing (not hoping) for the worst. I welcome every bit of good news you post; I hope there is multitudes more to come.

-- trafficjam (judgementday@ahead.soon), June 10, 1999.

I can't imagine why pollys are upset at the fact that remediation started too late. You can be upset at leadership for arrogance and preoccupation with ego coddling in fortune 500 companies, but at G.I.'s.........doesn't make much sense that you feel that way toward those who've pulled their blinders off and care. Maybe a few get a little jaded in their perceptions, however, if you exercise a little tolerance realizing this forum is filled with aware types and probably will only affect .0001% of the total population. Even a few more zeros may be more accurate. We cannot be wearing kid gloves for you folks and wear smiles in face of reality. Reality is ambiguous but what I.T. professionals say has some validity. Andy: realize that some of us reveal some things that we don't want other wierdos to trace. I have no desire to get e-mail from strangers. I'm also not about to let big brother in on my overkill preps. I'm sure you mean well but some rather nasty, foul, disengenuous folks prey on candid and well intention people. Too bad we have some pathetico's out there screwing it up for the rest of us well meaners.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 10, 1999.