Milne: Today's example of pollyanna spin

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Note: This has been sanitized for Mutha.

Subject:Help Us Here brock.
Date:1999/06/09
Author:Paul Milne <fedinfo@halifax.com>
  Posting History Post Reply


 
Monday, June 7, 1999 - Monday, June 14, 1999
 
The Victorian Government's claim to be on track to achieve year 2000 compliance has been rubbished in an independent report tabled in the State Parliament, sparking a war of words between the Government and the office of its chief auditor.
 
The Report on Ministerial Portfolios, released by the Victorian
Auditor-General's Office, reveals that up to two-thirds of the State's business critical systems had not been repaired by April 12 and as much as one-third had not begun to be repaired.
 
The VAGO report's finding that only 36 per cent of the State's 26,560 business critical systems had been repaired by April 12 contrasts markedly with the Government's claim, based on the same data, that its agencies' Y2K programs were on average 92 per cent complete.
 
According to the report, 7 per cent of the State's business critical systems had not even been assessed for Y2K compliance and for the possible impact of their failure on service delivery.
 
In addition, the report was critical of the overall lack of preparedness among agencies to implement contingency plans in the event of Y2K failures.
 
According to the report, only 29 per cent of critical systems had associated contingency plans in place in case of failure, while for more than 40 per cent of systems the development of contingency plans had not yet begun.
 
In contrast, the Government said when it released its report on Y2K progress in April that contingency plans had been completed for 72 per cent of its business critical systems.
 
The report also revealed that the Government had as of April 12 spent only $230 million of its estimated $526 million Y2K expenditure and noted that it had less than 11 weeks to spend the remaining $296 million required to fix its systems.
 
In summarising the audit assessment of the public sector's progress towards achieving Year 2000 readiness by June 30 - the Government's stated target - the report concluded that "a major part of the total effort required to complete year 2000 activities was yet to be
undertaken".
 
The executive director financial audit at VAGO, Mr Craig Burke, agreed yesterday that the report revealed a worrying state of affairs with respect to the Victorian Government's Y2K progress.
 
"The results lead us to the conclusion that major part of the work is yet to be done," said Mr Burke.
 
When asked to comment on the discrepancy between the Government's and VAGO'a assessment of the situation, Mr Burke described the difference as an anomalous situation.
 
"Comparing the Government's reporting tool to the agencies' own assessment gives a markedly different result. The fact is that only 36 per cent of systems have been fixed and 29 per cent of contingency plans completed, and that's what counts."
 
Under pressure to explain the report's findings in the Victorian Parliament last week, Finance Minister Mr Roger Hallam fired a broadside at the State's Auditor-General, Mr Ches Baragwanath, describing the report as a quick and nasty audit.
 
"What credence can be put on an assessment made in advance of the [June 30] deadline being reached?" said Mr Hallam.
 
"Every member of the chamber would know that on many occasions I have publicly recorded my support of the audit process and my professional support of Ches Baragwanath, but in this case he is premature. Prior to the deadline being reached he has come out with a quick and nasty audit during the currency of the process."
 
 
 
 
=====================
 
 
Here is a particularly good article for brock to spin. I would like him to ignore ALL the DISASTROUS NEWS, and please, even hnadedly and as a public service, not intending to persuade or dissuade, point out the good part of this. As he says, we must look at all sides of the issue.
 
What part of 36% fixed at this late date is good news?
 
What part of 335 systems: no work done is good news?
 
What part of $230 out of $526 million spent is good news"
 
 
Now I know that I missed all the good news someplace. I know that I am 'only' trying to find bad news.  I know that I am being 'monolithic' in my thinking. yet, I just can't quite seem to find the upside of this.
 
What I find is a government hat is not only 'woefully' inadequate but is also LYING to the citizens.
What i find is a catastrophe in the making. ooops. Not in the
mnaking......with only 100 or so working days left it is MADE.
 
Now brock, you disingenuous {typical pollyanna}, ...oh, excuse me, disinterested public servant and keeper of the 'balances',  fill us in like you did on Venezuela...You knwo...
 
1. They are aware.  Well? Aren't they?
2. They have made progress. Well, haven't they.
 
 
That was not mentioned . you could bring that up to ease our fears.
 
 
Oooo. Oooo. Oooo. I know, you could display your balance and even-handedness by telling us that they are 'on track',  or they 'expect to be compliant', or maybe even the ever popular, 'plan to test'.
 
c'mom brock, you  {typical pollyanna}, display your 'balance' here.
 
Paul Milne
 
http://www.afr.com.au/y2k/990607/gov/gov1.html



-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999

Answers

I got to admit, Paul Milne isn't particularly nice in alot of regards but damn he sure makes a convincing case. Once again, he uses facts on his side,... can anyone out there give some factual, serious rebuttal?

-- (workathome@atl.ga), June 09, 1999.

What facts? Tell us which systems will not be repaired or will not have viable workarounds. Then we can start discussing facts.

-- b (b@b.b), June 09, 1999.

Should be fairly obvious what's going on here.

The statement was made:

"Comparing the Government's reporting tool to the agencies' own assessment gives a markedly different result. The fact is that only 36 per cent of systems have been fixed and 29 per cent of contingency plans completed, and that's what counts."

So, while the Gov is reporting % of work completed, the VAG is reporting the % of systems 100% done.

Consider a simple example of 4 systems, at 100%, 95%, 90%, 80%. % of work done (assuming equal work on each) would be 91.25%. Percentage of systems complete would be 25%.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 09, 1999.


Yes Hoff and at this rate only 25% will be ready to go at rollover.

And how many of that 25% will be fully tested and proven to work?

5, 10, 15%

It's a shambles, a stramash, a cock-up - a bloody great mess and you morons cannot see it.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 09, 1999.


b

Brilliant response. Your question cannot be definitively answered until after rollover. Therefore, there is nothing to worry about.

You would say the same thing about a train coming down the tracks at you. No one can say exactly how far the train will fling your corpse. Therefore, there is nothing to worry about.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 09, 1999.



What a load of BS, Andy.

Using your reasoning, nothing would ever get done.

Sorry guy, but I'd rather see the progression of work reported.

Given a June 30th deadline, full integration testing of systems would probably not even be scheduled until May or early June, long after this audit was done. Including the integration test in work to be done, as it should, it would not surprise me to see no systems complete.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 09, 1999.


Ol' Paul just doesn't pack the same punch when he's been 'sanitized'. Certianly don't agree with him, but was entertained when his blather had spice. Bummer......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 09, 1999.


Hey Hoff -- does that explain why, with 100 working days left, they haven't even spent half their budget?

Your slip is showing man. LOL

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.


a

april 12, 2 months ago, seems like more than 100 days...

just a thought.

-- newlurker (no@no.com), June 09, 1999.


Pulling all the ole chestnuts out, are we "a"?

Been through this before. Besides the obvious fact that the audit as as of April 12 (few more than 100 working days), you claim systems/project experience, and should understand that different phases, like testing, have a higher burn rate of budget. Besides the obvious, that staff and contingency plans are budgeted through and following the rollover.

But hey, don't believe me? How 'bout Intel?

May 10-Q:

The Company currently expects that the total cost of these programs, including both incremental spending and redeployed resources, will not exceed $175 million. Approximately $57 million has been spent to date, of which approximately $15 million was incurred in the first quarter of 1999. These costs are not incurred in a linear pattern. Spending is expected to peak in mid-1999 and to continue, at a declining rate, well into the year 2000. The remaining costs are expected to be incurred for remediation of internal systems not categorized as critical or priority, integration testing, contingency planning, customer service, supplier monitoring and program office management. A majority of the costs are expected to be included in cost of sales and in the calculation of gross margin. Year 2000 costs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing internal systems are expected to be less than 10% of the total information technology budget for 1999.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 09, 1999.



Doug, ROTFLMAO, Ohhhhh geeeeese. "No one can say exactly how far the train will "fling" your corpse", HAHAHAHOHOHOOOOOEEEE. 10 points on the human scale, my man eeeeeegaddddssss. Now then, whewwww, That brings me to Hoff, who stated, "sorry guy, but I'd rather see the progression of work reported." It's *JUNE 1999* or have you noticed? You can continue reading reports right up until the roll-over. You MAY need a flashlight. Are you able to see which one of MY flashlights I'M holding up now?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

That is funny Hoff. Here it June 09 1999, there is a forty year problem to be solved, and nothing is even scheduled to be finished yet... and your okay with all that? lol

-- (workathome@atl.ga), June 09, 1999.

Thanks for the relevant info.

As for the rest, the name calling, baiting, hooting and generally churlish behavior...

Keep it. It distracts from what is important.

Do you feel that "pollys" may convince people that there is no danger? Or that "Doomers" will drive people to y2k scam artists? How about trying to debate the issues like adults so people are more inclined to listen.

Or am I the only one who feels that discourtesy is a poor tactic for debate?

Try to keep your mouths closed and your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), June 09, 1999.


Doug, I've heard the old "there's a train coming your way and you too dumb to see it" or substitute 18-wheeler for the train and you are roadkill cliches many times. I guess you think it's funny, but it's getting old, just like your assumptions about Y2K.

Answer this: What percentage of the government's systems are mission-critical to our society's survival?

-- b (b@b.b), June 09, 1999.


eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek!

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 09, 1999.


-b-, I have a question for ya? What is THEIR version of "mission- critical? You gonna bet the kids on that one? They aren't ready. The job is not complete. They have no time for end to end testing. This is *JUNE 1999*. You need to pull your flashlights out of your ears and take this news standing up. How about -eyes open-? OPEN YOUR EYES for -bleep- sake. The debate has ended for anyone who is not suffering from denial. I like humor. I always have. My entire family is plum hysterical. It helps me cope and gives me perspective when life slaps my face. Grow up.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

Fellows, and Ladies:

I am sorry, But, I don't think any of you guys or gals could tell the difference between your ass and a hole in the ground.

All I hear from most of you wise men of computers are attack, attack, from everything from, you didn't read my post to the way of you didn't understand my post.

You even attack people who post threads from articles trying to say, Hey its not my words, Its theirs.

Now I will admit, I am not a writer,speller, typest, investagitor, programmer, computer expert or a very wise person. I do damm well to figure my bills each month. So I am not saying that I am smart, But, you all are worse then the people that you say are not telling us the truth.

THERE is one thing that I am, and that is a judge of people actions and words. I sure hell aint stupid.

No damm wonder that we may have a 1929-30 style depression or worse, here we all know that computers decide what is on our dinner plate to how much change you will get back from McDonalds, K-Mart and telephone service. None of you experts can agree on anything. Hell, if the world of programmers is doing on the job, What people on this thread saying and acting, I had better move farther back into the woods, buy more food, get ready for a reveloution, and forget everything I have heard from anybody.

Please forgive my harsh language. But, That the way I am when 2+ 2 equals 7.

Good day and GOD, help us all when a few canno't agree.

I have the highest respect for everybodys knowlwdge of these matters. Thats why I get wrinkled, If the leaders can't lead, The people are doomed for sure.

Get serious and quit parading all your great knowledge around.

So long,

Lon

-- Lon (Lon1937@aol.com), June 09, 1999.


a@a.a:

If you're going to post Milne's rants, why don't you post some of the rebuttals he gets too? He even asked for a rebuttal on this one.

-- b (b@b.b), June 09, 1999.


Thanks Lon, coming from a common hairdresser....you have just made the VERY point I've been trying to make ALLLL along. We HAVE no leaders, and find ourselves in a position of having our children's lives placed in the hands of a bunch of Big-Brained fluffy phoo-phoo spinners, who are THEMSELVES suffering from denial. Can-it. The only question left, worth discussing AT ALL is, now what? This is *JUNE 1999*

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

b

If you watched the 60 Minutes segment you would have heard that Washington DC is not going to be habitable next year, so it kind of makes your question moot.

Heard any reports on how the IRS is doing? Heard any claims of compliance by Medicare? What happens when hospitals can't get paid? Or are you one of those morons who think all serious Y2K problems will be fixed over the weekend? Got airline reservations for New Year's Eve?

Does it bother you to know that oil-exporting nations are 18 months behind in remediation with only 205 days left?

My train analogy may be old, but that doesn't make it wrong. Government agencies are missing every deadline they set. If that isn't cause for you to be concerned then there is no point in discussing any of this with you.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 09, 1999.


DC is not going to be habitable? Are you kidding me? Is that your take on the 60 Minutes piece? You weren't watching very closely.

-- b (b@b.b), June 09, 1999.

-b-, you are profound example of a complete waste of skin. LEAD, FOLLOW, OR GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

Hahaha

We pollys try to lead but you idiots won't follow. I guess it's okay though, 'cause most of you seem to be bent on getting out of the way.

-- b (b@b.b), June 09, 1999.


Here ya go 'b' -- I thought I'd save you the embarrasment, but since you ASKED for it, here's the rest of the thread - including Brock's "rebuttal":

Bob Brock wrote:

Paul, this is the kind of stuff that you post that I usually ignore, but since you asked for help I will respond to this one. I didn't even have to pull up the article. One side says they are...the other side says they aren't. Who knows? This article says so little as to be meaningless. Believe who you want to. I'm going to bed now. Some of us have to work for a living. Have a good night Paul.

Tom Ambrose wrote:

Nice dodge, Brock. No answer. No integrity or honesty. Hiding like a coward *AGAIN*. Pull those sheets up high, Brock... bury yourself in them like the ostrich you are.

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.


Hey! It looks like Will Constipated has a new mantra, how nice. OK, Will, if you want to be the leader, I appoint you head lemming. Lead away!! Get in line 'a' and no fair peeking over the cliff before you get there.

-- Do You See (howstupid@youlook.com), June 09, 1999.

why don't you just jump off and get it over with?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

To continue where Hoff left off:

One of the key uses of statistics is that they can offer many different views of an underlying complex reality. No single statistic can be fully descriptive, but together they can be powerful if properly understood and interpreted.

Now, what has Milne done with statistics? (1) He selects a single view only; (2) He selects the single least descriptive and most misleading view he can find; (3) He declares that any other view is spin!

OK, normal Milne, he supports his 'case' with one half-truth, one distortion, and one lie. Nothing unusual here.

What's strange is that 'a' and Andy claim to be programmers. They work with numbers all the time. They can't help but see exactly what stunt Milne is pulling. So why do they support him rather than point out the errors in his method?

I can think of only two explanations for this. The first is that they feel that preparation is so important that it justifies using dishonesty to *trick* people into doing the right thing. Problems with this are, (1)they don't seem happy with a government that does the same thing. Surely they wouldn't claim that it's only OK when *they* do it, but not when anyone else does it! (2) There is ample evidence out there to inspire preparation when presented honestly. Why lie when the truth is on your side?

The other explanation has to do with organic neural pathology. Taken together, the sum of their posts weighs heavily toward this explanation.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 09, 1999.


Organic neural pathology? Gee Dr. Flint, maybe I should tell you more of the story. It all started back in 1960 in a small town hospital...

:)

-- a (a@a.a), June 09, 1999.


Dear God, please help me to curb my rage with Flint's blatant stupidity. I ask you to give me the STRENGTH to avoid the OVERWHELMING temptation to tie his tonsils in a knot. Forgive him Lord, for he knows not what he is doing....and I'm sure that's more than obvious to you as well. I feel he probably suffers from some form of evolved mental retardation. Help him. TAKE HIM

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 09, 1999.

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