Subject: RE: Facts and Useful Information Date: Tue, 8 Jun 1999 12:48:12 -0400 From: "Harlan Smith" To: "cpsr-y2k" CC: "*Neth C. G. S. E. Kuus" , "* Patricia Scotto"

Patricia and Doc,

Thanks for respectively writing and forwarding this, but we need to think about the cause and effect relationships regarding Patricia's observations. The fact is that we have suffered a major evolution in the Y2K situation and groups of all mindsets, "doomers", "moderates", "no problem pollyannas" are somewhat disoriented and have not adjusted to major changes in the overall situation. There's a lot to adjust to:

1. The idea of major failures in the domestic infrastructure are becoming more and more improbable as we approach the rollover. This greatly undermines the doomer's position regarding infrastructure failure and casts severe doubt on the emphasis of community action groups.

2. The game now is to worry about loose ends and secondary effects that have been submerged with respect to visibility but could surface to have profound impact. These include:

a) Supply lines extending into foreign countries, particularly oil supply. The potential oil shortage alone could cause recession, as did the 1973-74 OPEC oil crisis.

b) The great diversity of remediation progress in foreign countries and potential impact of infrastructure failure within any foreign country on business sectors in the USA.

c) The lagging remediation in small entities, like local governments, school districts, small businesses, local electric and telephone utilities.

d) Misplaced emphasis of many/most community action groups on preparing for infrastructure failure (that won't happen) as opposed to due diligence follow-up with local utilities and other entities lagging in their remediation efforts

e) Lack of preparation for the fact that the major impact of Y2K is likely an economic impact with threats to jobs as opposed to threats to survival.

f) A poor understanding of the dependence of the global banking system on computers and computer interfaces and how an aggregate of failures could pose a significant threat to that system.

g) Potential impacts on JIT manufacturing systems, particularly when these supply lines extend into foreign countries where the utility infrastructures are at significant risk.

h) Absence of top-level system testing and testing of reconfigured interfaces as such tests are difficult to accomplish.

i) Very weakly supported claims of thorough remediation such as the progress claimed by the FAA.

j) Multiple potential threats to maritime commerce, due to unremediated vessels, ports and customs operations.

k) Potential world instabilities caused by a Y2K diminished military infrastructure.

I believe that what Patricia is observing is a preponderance of people spinning their wheels because they were geared up with a mindset to address a set of threats that aren't materializing and have very little understanding at all of the probable set of threats.

If we are really concerned about what Patricia has observed, we should bend our backs toward a global risk analysis as opposed to criticizing the wheel spinning of the disoriented masses. Let's work on improving their orientation before we criticize them.

One of my favorite succinct risk analysis presentations is:

http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/05/biztech/articles/27year.html

This is very high level, but a good starting point. Now, what do we really think the probable threats are? How should each of these threats be addressed? What should we each be doing individually to attempt to address these threats? What should community action groups be doing?

What do we think the post rollover scenario will be? 100 or more Kosovo's to aid? Huge demand for high technology exports and assistance? Tremendous opportunity for innovation? Global financial crisis, recession or depression? Political upheaval?

Harlan Smith

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoom.com), June 08, 1999

Answers

Why is there less chance of major failures in the domestic infrastructure? What do we know now that we didn't before? I assume that this ties in with reports that embedded system failures will be lower than expected. What is the basis for these reports?

Do we actually have any new information? How many grains of salt do we take with self reported progress from entities that clearly have something to lose if their preparedness is reported otherwise?

To be more clear, do we have objective third party reports (OTPR) on progress in banking, manufacture, transportaion, utilities? This would give a much better sense of what is going on.

Watch Six, and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), June 08, 1999.

And on the other hand, do we have any further information that things are going poorly in regards to compliance? Let's leave out the "XYZ still hasn't completed their testing as of MM/DD/YY and moved their deadline back..." not because it's not important but because it's fairly well known. Anyone know of any recent discoveries of likly critical failures?

Trying to keep my...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), June 08, 1999.

Thanks for posting this, Cherri. I was thinking of doing the same thing.

Harlan Smith qualifies as a Very Bright Fellow IMHO, and I think he makes some excellent observations. It seems we all agree that Y2K will be a critical time in human history, and that preparations of some sort are prudent. But Harlan is on to something important: Be prepared to re-assess what it is you are preparing *for*.

"e) Lack of preparation for the fact that the major impact of Y2K is likely an economic impact with threats to jobs as opposed to threats to survival."

Hmmmm. Remember Ed's reluctant prognostication of a 10 year depression?

Durn those Shifty Paradigms...

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.

Let's see now,

potential oil shortage... infrastructure failure within any foreign country... lagging remediation in small entities, ..local electric and telephone utilities.... aggregate of failures could pose a significant threat to that system (global banking). .. absence of top-level system testing.... weakly supported claims of thorough remediation ... potential threats to maritime commerce..... potential world instabilities..

Oh man, I really feel better now that I know there's nothing that's going to threaten critical infrastructure failure.

-- Lon Frank (Postit@here.com), June 08, 1999.

major infrastructure failure more and more imporbably??? geez ... have i been missing something??

almost everything that i read - and i DONT mean trade association reports, corporate press releases or government pr statements - indicates the opposite.

pullleeeeeez .... tell me the good news so i can sleep better!

-- lou navarro (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), June 08, 1999.

Cherri

I am impressed you posted this, far more doomer than I have posted.

Power, Banks and Telcos have been at this for a while. It's situations like Italy starting this year that really should consern folk.

Actually the pope should get in on this global Y2K factor, he has a vested interest in this. But that is getting to wierd.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 08, 1999.

eyes open,

Let's see,

Banking, phones, power, water, and sewage, localy and wide spread in the US. SME's way behind the curve, and no good news from the fortune 2000.

Russia, China, Italy, Indonesia, Japan, and Eastern Europe for a start.

Then lets get into Sub Saharen Africa, The mid-east and all that oil. Do you want to talk about water where they distill it from salt water?

It takes all we have to make the world work with the present pop. I guess one of the work-arounds would involve a lower drain on available resources.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), June 08, 1999.

Cherri:

I sincerely hope that the "growing consensus" in that area is correct. That is, however, an extremely gloomy prognosis non the less.

We survived the Depression partly because the majority of families grew their own food and because the government of the US was not debt ridden and could, once it made the decision, spend quite massively to provide work and relief. Neither of those conditions apply today.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), June 08, 1999.

I agree with Harlan Smith. I used to put chance of IFM scenario at 1 in 20. Now, 1 in 50. Otherwise, his estimate of risks corresponds neatly with most of the things we discuss on this forum (regulars note far less discussion of utilities and back-up energy systems this year than last).

Still looks very much like a depression-scenario or VERY intense two-year recession if we're lucky.

Where Y2K is still very "weird" is that worldwide supply chain breakdowns (start with oil) could still result in loss of many goods now routinely purchased. Likewise, major failures in an entire country (we can joke and we do about Italian olive oil: multiple many times and factor in the interdependencies with other supply chain products).

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.

Does the fact that I/we agree with Harlan in a Cherri post mean that we can chalk one up for "doomers" agreeing to "good" news?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.

Cherri,

I don't think anyone has conclusively ruled out localized water or power problems. The "official" position now seems to be that these problems will happen only in certain areas and not on a nationwide basis.

Of course, problems or failures are always local--if you live there, it's a problem for you. Hurricanes are a problem for the areas hit by these storms, and it's hard to predict just where a hurricane will hit.

Having said that, I do agree with the writer you posted that the biggest threats to most people could be shortages and unemployment. Localized problems with utilities might be short-term, shortages a medium-term problem and unemployment a long-term problem.

Just remember that besides a shortage of, say, ball bearings or gasoline, there could be a shortage of food that lasts longer than any localized utility problems that might occur in your area. Having electricity does not automatically guarantee an adequate food supply.

Summing up, imagine for a moment a small town in Alabama that loses electricity for three days, drinkable water for three weeks, has food shortages for three months and high unemployment for three years.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 08, 1999.

(chuckle) good heavens, BD what is this forum coming to! Polite discourse? Thoughtful, tolerant comments?

Maybe we all needed to blow off some steam...

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.

<< We survived the Depression partly because the majority of families grew their own food and because the government of the US was not debt ridden and could, once it made. >>

Exactly, Jon. The point has been made many times on this forum that, for this society, a depression would be TEOTWAWKI! And there is no better place, IMO, to weather a depression than in the country. In a memorable passage from Gene Logsdon's The Contrary Farmer he recounts his grandfather's disbelief at the spectacle of bread lines in New York City during the Great Depression. Why, his grandfather wondered, didn't the durn fools move to the country? There was always plenty of food there. My father and mother recount the same thing from their Depression childhood. They were dirt poor; there were no frills whatsoever. But they always had enough to eat.

Plenty of food. That's what this is all about. It can't happen again? Yeah, right.

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.

<<<< c) The lagging remediation in small entities, like local governments, school districts, small businesses, local electric and telephone utilities. >>>>

Hmmmm.Isn't that about 80% or more of the US?

How much more LOCAL can we get?

-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.

..."threats to jobs as opposed to threats to survival."

Jobs ARE survival. Those without lean on those with. If the ratio tips too much then the system will begin to fail.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 08, 1999.

Well, Harlan put out a more hopeful forecast, and that's just fine with me. Now, if we can get a bunch of other "respected experts" to do the same, then I'll really feel better. In the meantime, at this time, I'm still dealing with the harsher forecasts, *just in case*.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 08, 1999.

Cherri do you plan on using any of Harlan's thoughts in your polly piece?

-- a (a@a.a), June 08, 1999.

Gordon --- Not so. IFM could be a result of consequences arising from Harlan Smith's own comments. Among other things, you'll note that embedded system problems, while far scarcer than originally anticipated, are showing up in "bad" places. Also, a careful reading reveals the gross uncertainty about global impact. Reread a) thru g) and consider the interdependent effects of various breakdowns on each other, as well as independently.

Yes, we may/probably have averted grid collapse in the U.S. Great news. Rather pitiful, though, against the overall picture. The fact that a) thru g) can be written AT ALL on June 9, 1999 says it all.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.

I agree with Big Dog. (Did your mother or father think of that name?) The supply chain could lead to a situation not-so-unlike Russia's where you can't find what you wish to buy. A rhetorical question that I often ask is whether somebody can find any clothes in their closet that were actually made in the US.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), June 09, 1999.

Here it is folks. The long awaited RAY! Associates report.

The link is:

Eagle-eye Steve King over on the EUY2K board noticed that the Connecticut Utilities audit has finally been posted at:

http://www.dpuc.state.ct.us/draftdec.nsf/6fe094d5f95a0bad8525644800690 2a0?OpenView

Click on Y2K Report. The report is in MSWORD.

After quick read of the 65 page report, I confess I'm a little gloomier than when I posted my first response to this thread. My immediate impression is that most of these utility companies no longer have any margin of error or any slack in the timetable. Testing of some systems is or will be rushed or impossible.

Worth a careful read, particularly by you Big Iron types. (I'm more of an Object-Oriented kinda guy...)

On second thought, I think this is worth a new thread.

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.