Subject:	Market Guru: DUMP YOU STOCKS NOW, THE FAT LADY IS SINGING!!
Date:	1999/06/07
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

June 7, 1999 Banking & Finance Investor says sell now while market is high Rusty Cawley Fund manager Barry Kitt sums up the connection between Wall Street and the Y2K problem this way: "For the first time in the history of the stock market, we have a date-certain event that could become a worldwide cataclysmic event."   Kitt controls The Pinnacle Fund, a $31 million hedge fund based in Dallas. The fund invests in undervalued growth stocks. Through May 31, Pinnacle gained 30.22% in value, compared to 15.01% for the Dow and 3.96% for the Russell 2000.   Like all investors, Kitt is assessing what will happen on Jan. 1, when the world's computers make that dreaded shift from the year 1999 to the year 2000.   His conclusion: There will come a financial cataclysm that will affect any portfolio that invests in securities.   But Kitt (who describes himself as "typically a bull investor") knows Wall Street makes decisions more on emotion than on logic, more on perception than on reality. And there are enough investors out there who fear the Y2K Bug to cause the Dow Jones averages, the S&P averages and the Russell averages to shift downward.   "Let's assume that only 30% of all investors pull out of the market during the last half of this year," Kitt said. "That's more than enough to cause a major, major correction. I wouldn't predict how low the Dow will go. No one's smart enough to guess that correctly. But it would not surprise me at all if the Dow falls by several thousand points before Jan. 1."   "The market will implode," Kitt says frankly.   As for the individual investor, Kitt's advice is simple: Get out now. Sell that stock; dump that mutual fund.   "If I pull my money out now, I lose nothing," Kitt says.   ========   BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA!   One of the most successful on Wall Street is now singing THE EXACT song that I jhave been singing since day one.   Get out! Get Out Now! If you pull your money out you have NOTHING TO LOSE!   BWAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!   Oh, I get it, **I** was kooky , but **he** is giving sound advice. I get it now.   Like I have repeatedly said, your fault my fault, nobody's fault at all, we are going to crash. As far as mere perceptions are concerned this guy just advanced the 'dump all your stocks before the crash' school by leaps and bounds. And it is directly attributed to Y2K.   Won't be long now suckers.         http://www.amcity.com/dallas/stories/1999/06/07/newscolumn1.html   Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.     Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Share what you know. Learn what you don't.

-- a (a@a.a), June 07, 1999

Answers

Here's a test question for Milne. Why didn't we fall into a depression when the market crashed in 1987? Here's a hint, Gary Becker, nobel laureate economist, explains this in a popular economics books.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 07, 1999.

Kooky? you've got that right! Don't forget what we're doing here.

-- feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.

That's easy Decker! Read the book by Ravi Batra that you so often cite a little more closely. Hint: "If, through market manipulation, we are able to avoid a cycle, the following cycle will be much worse."

Oh, and address the issue of the thread - no fair answering a question with a question :)

-- a (a@a.a), June 07, 1999.

Perhaps we should all talk about it for a few more months. Shoot, I'd like to see some graphs and read a few more books on the subject. On second hand maybe somebody could give us all a few tips on how to wait until the last few minutes before.........

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

$31,000,000 million fund manager! WOOOOW!!! Chump change! Why not all of it? Is a $15,000,000 loss OK?

-- treading litely (rs@marketwatch.com), June 07, 1999.

A,

Wrong. But how would you know Ravi Batra didn't win a Nobel Prize for predicting a depression that never came? Try a little research, "A."

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 07, 1999.

Answer the question Decker. Why are Wall Street experts now saying the financial end is near? Why will you not concede that Milne is most likely correct on this one?

People like you, who believe they can sit on their ass and get rich by buying and selling stocks forever, are in for a nasty surprise. And then they will discover the really bad news...a y2k induced depression and a violent countrywide melee that ensues.

-- a (a@a.a), June 07, 1999.

Sounds like an "ego" problem.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Perhaps he and Flint are off playing marbles together. You know, Flint left one of his jumbos over on the Milne thread when he limped off last night!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

What I remember from 1987 is that the Federal Reserve flooded the system with liquidity at the time--so much so that Business Week had an editorial a month or so after the crash saying there was too much of it in the system.

Is that the answer you were looking for?

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 08, 1999.

The writing is on the wall. Don't forget that mutual funds are the most popular investment vehicle now. They do well by riding out the highs and lows for the long term. Fund managers are usually not going to bail out of the market and go to cash if they forsee problems, which would minimize a decline. However, if enough people begin to redeem, they would be forced to sell to cover the redemptions, for whatever they can get. Not a good scenario when prices start to plummet.

-- ariZONEa (workin_for@living.com), June 08, 1999.