OT Power could be cut tommorow

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A blast of hot, humid weather from the Midwest to New England pushed electricity demand to the limit Monday, prompting a scramble for spot power, warnings of shortages, and cuts to some industrial users.

From the Upper Midwest, across Ontario to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England, utilities pleaded with customers to turn down air conditioners, douse unneeded lights, and delay running appliances that could instead be run after sundown.

``I think tomorrow's going to be worse. The forecasters are saying it's supposed to be even hotter in the Midwest and all of the Northeast. Hopefully no big power plants trip off line,'' said a Texas-based electricity trader.

New England was among the hardest hit, with temperatures soaring to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 C) midday in Boston.

ISO New England, the group that oversees operation of the region's power grid, declared a ``power warning'' from 2:30 p.m. EDT until 8:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday in anticipation of a second day of brutal heat.

The surge in air conditioning by the 13.4 million people served by New England power companies pushed electricity loads in the region to a June record of 20,768 megawatts (MW) by shortly after 3:00 p.m. EDT.

PJM Interconnection LLC, the power grid operator for some 22 million people on the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland system, issued a ``maximum emergency generation'' notice, asking all power companies linked by the grid to turn on every power plant at their disposal to help meet demand.

PJM, which stretches from New Jersey to Washington D.C., said the load on its system had hit 48,730 MW by 4:00 p.m. EDT near its peak 1999 summer forecast of 49,807 MW and closing in on the 49,406 MW record hit on July 15, 1997.

The smothering hot air paid no attention to borders, spreading well into southern Canada and forcing the giant provincially-owned Ontario Hydro to cut service to some of its ''interruptible'' customers to avoid wider shortages.

Interruptible customers, predominantly industrial, buy power at reduced rates with the understanding they can be cut off on short notice whenever there is not enough electricity to go around.

If that does not work, the next step is to start curtailing power to ``firm'' customers, in other words, to initiate short, rolling brownouts among households, businesses, and all other customers that typically rely on constant service.

So far, power generators have been able to keep pace with demand in this heatwave, unlike in late June, 1998, when a similar strain on the grid was made even more severe because of outages at several big Midwestern power stations.

But the situation Monday had a major impact on spot electricity prices.

Power for delivery Tuesday at the Cinergy trading hub in Cincinnati, Ohio, jumped to $325.00 per megawatt hour from about $75.00 Friday for power scheduled for delivery today.

``A lot of people thought we had high prices last week and were waiting to see if the heat really came...I'm afraid some people got burned,'' one Midwest electricity trader said.

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-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999

Answers

Yea, I was thinking about posting this earlier, but I figured it would draw too much heat... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.

It said New York (Reuters)...from what source if you will sir?

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.

Amazing but true.

I have never had air conditioning and never plan to get it. I'm 48 years old and still alive....and surviving just fine without it. I'm in one of those heat stricken midwestern states.

Put on a fan for cripes sake!

What a bunch of whimps.

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), June 07, 1999.


Somebody posted a chart last year of NERC's projected power consumption and the graph showed that generation capacity would be overwhelmed by growing demand. Seems to me it mentioned that around 2000 the results would mean rolling blackouts. Anybody remember were that page is?

GeeGee: you're not from SC I can tell you that much. Live expectancy would be a lot shorter here without A/C.

-- a (a@a.a), June 07, 1999.


Seems to me people survived just fine before the days of air conditioning.

Our power was off twice today and that has been the pattern here for a few months. It has to be Y2K related....testing????

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), June 07, 1999.



--a, the chart was in a Dick Mills column which addressed the increasing demand for generation compared to output, regardless of Y2K. Go to:

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9830.htm

-- Bonnie Camp (bonniec@mail.odyssey.net), June 07, 1999.


Feller,

Here's a link to the story on Yahoo News. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


GeeGee, gosh! and I thought the average life span had increased over the years.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.

For those who don't see any value in generators...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 07, 1999.

Hate to neener neener but could you send some heat our way? This morning at 7:00 am it was 41 outside and brrrr - 62 inside and it reached a daytime high today of 57. Feel like we're never going to get over winter!!! Sorry you all are so hot back there...

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), June 07, 1999.


Mad Monk: Hey! you live in Hawaii!...how's the weather?

-- feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.

GeeGee, some people can take the higher temps, some not. In Britain, when the temp goes over about 85F, people start to faint. They're just not used to it. Some of us never get used to it. I had only a fan one summer in New Orleans when I was in my mid-20s. I had to buy a window AC unit, after about a month of heat.

You'll find that the Sunbelt boomed only when AC became ubiquitous. Take away that AC and there would be a population readjustment of staggering proportions. In addition, houses built since about 1960 or so were built with cheap AC in mind. Few were built with features to take advantage of the "cool" side of the house or to catch prevailing breezes. Infants and the elderly are especially vulnerable to heat.

It helps to install dark bronze sunfilm on the south and west windows, attic insulation, of course, and deciduous landscaping to shade in the summer and let sun in when winter arrives. (Evergreens should go on the north side to help keep the house warm in winter.) I believe Real Goods (realgoods.com) has a solar-powered attic exhaust fan. It's on my wish list--what a good idea.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), June 07, 1999.


Valkyrie, here too. Cold, can see breath in air. Bbrrr! And it felt like Autumn today, with plenty of woodstove smoke blowing, layers of sweaters on, even leaves skittering across the pavement between rain bursts. Just feel like sleeping and hibernating. Scary feeling, to have this preview of Fall so soon. Too much yet to be done. We're going to have to dig in and really push to complete all preps; don't want to be anxious in October. Now is the time.

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 07, 1999.


Hey Old Git: You always make my eyes sparkle...hehehe

I have a solar powered attic fan coming as we speak from real goods! The 12 inch model comes with 1 panel and puts out 700-900 cfm. The 16 inch model comes with 2 panels and puts out 800-1,100 cfm. I got the 12 inch one cuz the cfms are close to the bottom range of the 16 inch model. It was 100$ cheaper too from what I recall.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 07, 1999.


feller and Old Git, About the atic fan...... I dont quite understand (I read about it on the back page of Lemahns). My question is.... does it only run when the sun shines, or is thier a way of saving the power and turning it on at night?

We are usually outside working during the day, but at night we would love to have a cool breeze rushing through the crack of a window. Can you draw me a picture of how these things work? Thanks Bulldog

-- bulldog (sniffin@around.com), June 07, 1999.



Bulldog:

From what i gather, the fan is run by the solar panel and does not store any energy on a battery bank. I guess it is there to dump heat during the day so your walls and ceiling won't store as much heat as it normally would, during the night hours. Heat is always the common denominator. Stopping heat from escaping during wintertime and keeping heat out or evacuating it during summertime. I guess smaller A.C. fans could be used if you had panels, inverter and battery bank. D.C. fans would be used if you had panels, charge controller and battery bank.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 08, 1999.


Without air conditioning, the Sun Belt will empty. If it can.

A good book on passive solar design and retrofitting is:

The Passive Solar House, published by Real Goods. Highly recommended, with lots of practical advice.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.


Hi Bulldog,

Unfortunately, the attic fan only works until sunrise-sunset. But when I went to the Real Goods on-line catalogue to check out the price of the solar exhaust fan ($300+), I noticed they have a DC fan. This could be run from a panel-battery set-up, you wouldn't need an inverter, it would run directly from the power stored in the battery. Roy Butler has been helping us tremendously with our solar stuff and I think I'm going to e-mail him shortly to ask about this idea for our attic, then we could have the fan running at night. "Roy @ Four Winds" 4windpwr@infoblvd.net.

Something else you might want to consider, Real Goods has small battery-operated fans, maybe about 6" x 8" or so, and I have one. It's very effective when placed on the night stand near my head, creates a good breeze. It's supposed to run 300 hurs before the batteries need a recharge. I now have three solar battery chargers and several regular ones that can be run off a panel, so I'm already saving some money on the electric bill.

Something else I forgot to mention. I think it was Chuck who told me that the crystals for holding moisture in plant pots, found in garden catalogues, are the same thing as those put in those "sausage" rolls to soak and put around your neck to keep you cool. I've already got a package and will be making up some cooling thingies when I get my sewing stuff out of storage. On hot days, I take an old hand towel, soak it in water and drape it around my neck so I can keep cool when watering the plants--dries out fast, though. THe crystals idea sounds better. And if it doesn't work for personal cooling, I can put the stuff in my plant pots!

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), June 08, 1999.


Make that officially 97 degrees in Boston yesterday. Apparently some plants are down for maintenance and not available. So much for the ability of the grid operators to manage capacity.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.

Someone said that the "Sunbelt" would empty without A/C. I remember a very hot summer in 1957 in Tulsa, Ok. Of course there was no A/C...heck even cars didn't have A/C then. Days and people moved much slower in '57, a nap in the afternoon was a mandatory requirement for adults and children. After sunset it was still hot as hell outside and activity droned to another halt after dinner ...cool water baths were the formula for cooling down at that time. By about 10 to 11 it was finally bearable to be outdoors, and the neighborhood came alive as parents and children went outside to take advantage of the cool breezes and leave the stifling hot air inside the house. Lots of people came to the "Sunbelt" over the past 25 years....but there were people here before and we made it. We can again if we have to, people adjust, lifestyles may be different, but hey....I'm old enough to need a nap every afternoon now anyway. [g]

-- Cary Mc from Tx (Caretha@compuserve.com), June 08, 1999.

yep- it hit about 90 here- broke the record. Was nasty!! And nobody here has AC- i just worked outside as usual and fried.......but it stormed last night and it's somewhat better today- pretty weird weather- 90's in Vermont in early June.....and it was thirtysomethin last week......got happy eggplants though!

-- anita (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), June 08, 1999.

Yeah, the crystals are variously called Hydrosorb, terrasorb, or generically "cracked ice" (in craft shops) Burpees sells them for about 10 bucks a pound, I haven't landed on them in Craft circles but suspect Michaels or Pat Catan's should have them. Crafters use them for flower arrangements that they want to float thiings like coins etc. in the middle of the large vases, etc. takes a very small amount to soak up a quart of water (half a teaspoon, roughly) so making those Brookstone Cooldana's takes less than a quarter teaspoon for the portion of the bandana you sew into the tube. At a WHOLE lot less than the 15 bucks Brookstone gets.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), June 08, 1999.


HARTFORD, Conn., June 8 (Reuters) - New England electric utilities warned of possible power cuts on Tuesday due to a second straight day of steamy heat.

Rolling blackouts might be necessary throughout the day as temperatures again climbed into the 90s, said Deborah Beauchamp, spokeswoman for Berlin, Conn.-based Northeast Utilities (NYSE:NU - news), New England's biggest electric utility.

``The six states in New England, if we lose one generator, we will be in a situation to have to shed load, and that shedding of load will occur throughout each of the six states,'' Beauchamp told reporters.

New England groups Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.

``An expected high demand for electricity due to the record heat has created an emergency condition for the region's electricity system,'' said Jim Sinclair, spokesman for ISO New England Inc., the Holyoke, Mass.-based organization in charge of the region's power grid.

The temperature soared to 98 in the Hartford, Conn., area on Monday, breaking a previous record of 96 set in 1925.

Utilities in the region urged business and residential customers to conserve electricity.

``This hot, humid weather creates a tremendous demand for electricity, especially during business hours,'' said Mark Ishkanian, spokesman for Augusta, Maine-based Central Maine Power Co.

``We've got (electricity) demand that is much higher than we expected,'' Beauchamp said. ``Yesterday we saw 20,800 megawatts in New England -- that was about 700 megawatts over the expected peak.''

``Today, the region is expecting 21,975 (MW),'' she said. ``The New England region is tighter than it's ever been.''

ISO New England might request all states to shed load, Beauchamp said.

``Depending on the load shed that they request, that is the amount of load that we would have to disconnect in Connecticut,'' she said.

For example, if ISO New England requests a 10 percent load shed, then Northeast Utilities will have to disconnect 120,000 of its total 1.2 million Connecticut customers.

``It would be done on a rotating, two-hour schedule in pre-selected areas within each state in New England,'' Beauchamp said.

``We are trying to secure emergency power from New York, the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland-Delaware power pool, and also from Michigan,'' Beauchamp said

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.


Real Goods called me today to confirm my order (Solar panels & solar powered attic fans) was shipped. He said,"and you'll be pleased to know your 5% was not figured in and you get a refund". I said," ok, send me one of those mexican hot water heaters (duel burning) with the money saved". If electricity is off, (4) 90 watt and (2) 100 watt solar panels, the solar powered water well and medium flow pump with get 500+ gallons a day and meduim flow pump will pressurize the house after it hits the pressure tank. A brick cookhouse where food will be cooked will be in place to transfer coals to the mexican hot water heater during supper. The medium flow 12 volt water pump will go in there with a small place on other side for (2) 6 volt golf cart batteries and charge controller. Now hot water!.....check it for yourself at www.realgoods.com.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 08, 1999.

Bonnie Camp posted the following (excerpt) on Rick Cowles forum under the thread "Old Stations Running Again":

6/4/1999 - "Entergy Nuclear is in the process of purchasing Pilgrim Station from Boston Edison. The sale close is expected to take place this summer, after the refueling outage is complete and the unit is returned to service."

"Boston Edison officials have announced the duration of the refueling outage at Pilgrim Station will be extended about 25 days while the utility replaces the main transformer. The transformer was damaged May 18 during a small fire that resulted from electrical testing. Subsequent inspections have shown that the damage to the main transformer is more extensive than originally thought and repairs cannot be completed on-site. Pilgrim was expected to return to full power on June 14th. The transformer replacement will add about 25 days to the original schedule." [END SNIP]

Makes me wonder what the "electrical testing" was all about. June 14th wouldn't have been in time to help this week, but an additonal 25 days puts the lack of capacity more squarely into the expected period of highest annual demand, and this spring has been much hotter than usual in New England. I wonder how far away the grid is pulling power from, since this heat wave has hit a sizable area.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.


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