http://www.bankrate.com/dls/story_home.asp?web=dls&story=news/y2k/19990604&thisprodtype=y2k

I'd be interested in comments, especially on the guy from Gartner Group's comment that everything's AOK.

Also, I'm hotlink-impaired, so you'll have to copy and paste. Sorry.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), June 07, 1999

Answers

Jeannie, here's your link.

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), June 07, 1999.

I work for a major food distributor. We operate in 49 states and Canada. Most internal systems are being tested in my region, however, we are the prototype and all other regions are waiting on us. We import food to the tune of 16 billion a year. No effort has been undertaken to ascertain the readiness of our foreign suppliers. Approximately half of the items in a grocery store are either imported or have some foreign component (glass, cans, labor, fertilizer, etc.) These compromise 20-25% of the retail sales (Supermarket News). Additionally, the testing with our suppliers and customers (chains) is not being discussed or planned, to my knowledge...

I expect the supply lines to hold for 30 days before real problems begin, and that's if the Iron Triangle (power, phones, and banks) hold up. Transportation is also a big question.

fat_C

-- fat_C (f@chance.com), June 07, 1999.

Thanks for that input there fat_C

Jeannie, the article you mentioned only discusses food distributors. What about the manufacturers? That's what I'm concerned about. The manager of one of the local Albertson's was interviewed in our local paper a while back, lots of rosey "no worries here" stuff from him. Could be entirely true. In my mind, the supermarket's compliance is meaningless...I'm wondering about the manufacturers. The stores don't make the dern stuff!

Also, if you've never read any of the comments made previous to this one by Lou of Gartner, he has, in my opinion, one of the worst cases of cognizant dissonance I've ever seen!

Don

-- Don (dwegner@cheyenneweb.com), June 07, 1999.

Thanks for the link Sandmann :)

Thanks also for your input, Fat. My dh spoke with one of the VPs at Publix (he works near their headquarters) and they seemed to be pretty concerned. Last year they were adding extra warehouse space and slowing down their expansion throughout the South. It seems like a good opportunity for some of the local suppliers to get exposure if some of the larger ones go down (provided the supermarkets stay up, of course!).

And Don, thanks for the input on Lou of Gartner. You would think that anyone associated with that group would be "getting it" by now, but I appreciate you pointing out that he never has. I never saw his name before.

So many things to worry about, so little time.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), June 07, 1999.

I am a local activist for a family farm and ranch group. Our parent organizations are both state and nationwide. We have seen three articles on the nationwide level on y2k from our organization and those were in a magazine that goes only to officers and directors. The last was about a month ago and was an INTRODUCTORY article to the issue. I have seen one article on the state level in January and we are one of the largest farm production states (Calif.)

Family production ag is in a world of hurt on many levels: financing, marketing, reauthorization of chemicals, environmental regs., world trade and estate taxes. All of these are being placed ahead of y2k in priority for attention.

Realistically, when your prices for the past decade are as low as they were in the 1950s, weather disasters abound, the bank won't loan and is foreclosing on your neighbors, your irrigation water is being shut off to provide water for fish, then your attention is on surviving the season.

Few farmers or ranchers I know of are addressing y2k. Those who are "aware" of it think it is a non-issue.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 08, 1999.

Interesting quote from the above article:

Gartner Group's Lou Marcoccio says there are enough suppliers of the "key critical perishables" that he doesn't expect to see a problem. But he is worried about consumer panic. Marcoccio says a Gartner Group survey shows 23 percent of the general U.S. population says they'll buy a 10-day to 14-day supply of food and an additional 11 percent plan to buy more than a 14-day supply. Marcoccio calls that a "significant drain on the supply."

It depends on when the food is bought and how many people normally keep a 14-day supply of food anyway.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 08, 1999.

Wow - from all aspects of the "food chain" - farmers through manufactors through warehousing through stores.

And not much good news throughout.....food processors wer declared "ready for y2k" by the Ag Dept early in Jan 1999 based on responses from 3 companies (out of 400 surveyed!) The rest did not reply. The three who said they would be ready had begun in mid 1996, early 1996, so it makes sense they'd be finishing on time.

The rest? I don't have much confidence there. The usual troubles in all of the industries (records, suppliers, inventory, management, financial, billing, payrolls, taxes, utilities, etc.) But in food processing, you can't "stop" a process and restart - the extruders and presses, the ovens, the bins and the mixers can't "wait a minute" - they require very close control all the time to avoid burning food, spoiling, it, freezing it (too much - too little - too fast - too slow - wrong dehydration time - wrong pour temperature - etc.) The automated bagging and processing industry is very tightly managed by processors or the food is ruined.

Add in the ususal warehousing and shipping and trucking/train problems getting the right stuff in the right place at the right time.

So I figure the worst hit by year 2000 will be the middle between groceries and the farmers. Might seem cruel to the guys already hard hit, but ....

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 08, 1999.